Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd trades at ₹2,828, in a confirmed uptrend and 4 weeks into that stage. That is +9.9% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 72% of a 52-week range of ₹2,122 to ₹3,106. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 9 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 4 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹2,828 it trades +9.9% versus its 200-day average and sits at 72% of its 52-week range (₹2,122–₹3,106).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +74% while the NIFTY 500 moved +267% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 9 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 22 August 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: EARNINGS_EXPANSION_VALUATION_COMPRESSION. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 22 August 2026.

Our read, 22 August 2026. Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals is executing a specialty mix transition with innovation reaching 7.5% of sales and operating margins at 34%, while a compressed trailing multiple of 46.7x reflects peak-margin valuation caution.

From the numbers. Glaxo trades at a trailing P/E of 46.7x (and 43.3x on snapshot), positioning it in the 18.1th percentile of its 10-year valuation distribution against a historical median of 56.5x. The deterministic cycle engine stamps…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 4 — above its 200-day line, relative strength rising.

From the research. Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals is executing a specialty mix transition with innovation reaching 7.5% of sales and operating margins at 34%, while a compressed trailing multiple of 46.7x reflects peak-margin valuation…

🚨 Where they disagree. Glaxo trades at a trailing P/E of 46.7x (and 43.3x on snapshot), positioning it in the 18.1th percentile of its 10-year valuation distribution against a historical median of 56.5x. The deterministic cycle engine stamps matrix label STRONG_OPPORTUNITY and segment MEAN_REVERT_OPPORTUNITY based on earnings growth coinciding with multiple compression. However, the deterministic normalized cycle analysis flags PEAK_MARGIN_VALUE_TRAP because current operating margin (31.5%-36.0%) sits in the 86th percentile against a 10-year normalized mid-cycle margin of 22.0%. At normalized profitability, EPS is ₹41.66 and normalized P/E rises to 69.7x (90th percentile). The second-order reconciliation confirms…

What is proven. Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals is executing a specialty mix transition with innovation reaching 7.5% of sales and operating margins at 34%, while a compressed trailing multiple of 46.7x reflects peak-margin valuation caution.

What is not proven yet. Operating profit margin compressing below 28% across two consecutive quarters driven by volume deceleration in General Medicines combined with Shingrix quarterly dose run-rate dropping below 35,000 units.

🚨 What would change our mind. Operating profit margin compressing below 28% across two consecutive quarters driven by volume deceleration in General Medicines combined with Shingrix quarterly dose run-rate dropping below 35,000 units.

Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — KEEP. Superb business, finished growth: sales flat three years, profit all from a margin now falling, price assumes 24%. GSK India sells trusted medicines and vaccines and does it extraordinarily well — 61.4% return on capital, no debt, and it pays out 93% of profit. It has genuinely shifted toward higher-value specialty products, which grew from 4% to 7.5% of sales and lifted gross margin by roughly 450 basis points, which I checked directly. But sales have gone nowhere: the last twelve quarters all sit between 805 and 1,041 crore rupees, trailing growth is 5.75%, and the operating margin that produced every bit of the earnings growth has just fallen from 36% to 31% in two quarters. At 46.7 times earnings the price is asking for growth of about 24% a year that the top line has not shown in three years.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. Two consecutive quarters of revenue above 1,000 crore rupees WITH operating margin holding at or above 32% — that would prove the specialty ramp is finally moving the top line rather than just the margin, and would justify the multiple. Absent that, the reverse is what I expect to see: margin drifting below 30% while revenue stays in its band, which turns 46.7 times earnings into 69.7 times on normalised earnings. This sharpens the document's own kill-switch — it asks for margin below 28%…

Layer 2 read, 22 August 2026 — BENCH. Real specialty growth is still too small to offset slow core growth and a poor sector capital cycle. Innovation rose from 4% to 7-7.5% of sales and Shingrix grew 65%, so the specialty shift is real. General Medicines had been flat, while sector capex rose 165.2% with institutions absent, producing CAPACITY_RISK. That external warning supports BENCH, not DROP, because current revenue and profit still grew.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. Advance if the next quarter again shows double-digit consolidated revenue growth, General Medicines reaches at least 6% volume-led growth, and specialty reaches at least 9% of sales; drop if margin stays below 28% for two quarters while Shingrix doses fall below 35,000.

The test written in advance. Operating profit margin compressing below 28% across two consecutive quarters driven by volume deceleration in General Medicines combined with Shingrix quarterly dose run-rate dropping below 35,000 units. — the thesis as written as stated by the next result.

The test written in advance. Peak Operating Margin Mean-Reversion Risk — Peak Operating Margin Mean-Reversion Risk Quarterly operating profit margin declining below 30% or gross margin contracting by more than 100 bps YoY. by the next result.

The test written in advance. National List of Essential Medicines Price Control Exposure — National List of Essential Medicines Price Control Exposure NPPA notifications adding key General Medicines formulations to revised NLEM schedules. by the next result.

What the company does. Innovation portfolio spanning Shingrix, Nucala, Trelegy, and oncology expanded from 2% to 7.5% of revenue, lifting gross margins by 150 bps and full-year operating margins to 34%. Core General Medicines portfolio provides cash generation with 1.09x three-year cash conversion and negative working capital of -4 days CCC, funding a 93% dividend payout. Trailing P/E of 46.7x sits at the 18.1th percentile of its 10-year band, but normalized mid-cycle P/E of 69.7x indicates that margin sustainability is the primary driver of forward returns.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: OCF-to-PAT of 1.09x over 3 years and 0.87x in FY26 confirms accounting profits convert into cash. The research reads it further: Cash flow is supported by negative working capital (-4 days CCC) where trade payables (154 days) fund receivables (26 days) and inventory (124 days). Capex is minimal at ₹82 Cr in FY26, generating ₹821 Cr FCF to fund a 93% dividend payout.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: Trailing P/E of 46.7x at the 18.1th percentile of 10-year history indicates valuation discount against historical multiples. The research reads it further: The multiple appears compressed because trailing EPS (₹63.05) reflects peak operating margins (34% in FY26 vs 10-year normalized mid-cycle margin of 22%). If margins mean-revert to the historical average, normalized P/E rises to 69.7x (90th percentile).

Sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd reported ₹938 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +16.5% year on year. That is the 3rd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 3.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹3,822 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹3,954 Cr.

Why this happened. Under the Generic-to-Specialty Value Migration framework, Glaxo is pivoting away from commoditized acute formulations toward IP-protected specialty therapies. In Q1 FY27, specialty assets contributed 7.5% of total sales compared to 4.0% in the prior year period, adding approximately 4 percentage points to headline revenue growth. Key contributors include Shingrix, Nucala, Trelegy, and oncology therapies Zejula and Jemperli. The shift enhances gross margins by 150-190 bps and insulates the revenue base from domestic price controls.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹3,822 Cr (+1.9% on the year), capping 10 years at 3.0% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹938 Cr, +16.5% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +6.3% growth against the decade's 3.0% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +5.8% over the last 4 quarters against +6.2%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +12.4% vs +29.2%/yr — rolling over.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹995 Cr and profit ₹278 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹938 Cr and profit ₹237 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd's operating margin is 31.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 14.0% to 34.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 31.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 14.0%–34.0%, and FY26's 34.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.3 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.8 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹995 Cr and profit ₹278 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹938 Cr and profit ₹237 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd earned ₹237 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +15.6% year on year. It is the 10th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹1,036 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 10.7%. That is 25.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹205 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹237 Cr, +15.6% year on year — the 10th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹1,036 Cr (+11.6%), and the 10-year compound rate is 10.7%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +16.5% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +13.0% vs revenue +6.3%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹995 Cr and profit ₹278 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹938 Cr and profit ₹237 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 109% of Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹903 Cr of operating cash against ₹1,036 Cr of profit. After ₹82.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹821 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹903 Cr against reported profit of ₹1,036 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹821 Cr after ₹82.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 109% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 109%: the cash cycle tightened 54 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs −4 days in FY26, down from 50 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹167 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹3,822 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹10.5 Cr, so roughly ₹−42.0 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 26 days, inventory at 124 days — roughly 4.1 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of −4 days, tighter than FY21's 50.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 124 days to sell; customers pay about 26 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 154 days — netting out to the −4-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹3,822 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹10.5 Cr — so the −4-day loop keeps roughly ₹−42.0 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹167 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹203 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹33.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd earns a ROCE of 61% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 22% in FY17. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +25.9 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 27.1% net margin on 0.88× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 61%, recovered from a FY17 trough of 22% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 27.1% net margin × 0.88× asset turns × 1.91× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 45.5% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 37.9% − 12.0% = a +25.9 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every rupee reinvested creates more than a rupee of value — the engine compounds.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd carries total debt of ₹33.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹2,267 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.01 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.01 in FY22 to 0.01 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹33.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹2,267 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.01. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.01 (FY22) to 0.01 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Domestic institutions moved +0.3 points over the same window, to 7.8%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: +0.8 points over 8 quarters to 4.8%; Domestic institutions: +0.3 points over 8 quarters to 7.8%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 75.0%.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd trades at 45.5× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 15% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 58.0×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 45.5× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 15% of the time, against a long-run median of 58.0× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

One caveat before moving on: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. If profitability mean-reverts, today's multiple is higher than it looks.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +11.7% against a +2.0% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +13.1%/yr price move, ~+21.5%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−8.4 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +6.5%/yr price move, ~+10.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−4.4 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 26 August 2026 price, Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 24.4% a year. Profit itself has compounded 10.7% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 45.5× P/E, the 15th percentile of its own 11-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is low against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is far above what this company has actually delivered. A multiple that looks low because earnings fell is not the same thing as a low bar to clear.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 26 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Topping out Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd reads as topping out on its fundamental arc. Topping out — profit and EPS growth have decelerated hard (profit growth +57.1% at its peak → +12.4% latest) while ROCE still reads 59.4%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: decelerating from a peak is where good stories quietly end — the multiple usually notices late.

4-Factor Sector Score

54.7/100 — rank 4 of 8 in Pharma - MNC bulk Drugs · 100% evidence confidence

Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd scores 54.7 out of 100 against the 8 companies it is compared with in Pharma - MNC bulk Drugs, ranking 4. Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 13.7%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 13.3 + 18 + 5.7 + 17.7 = 54.7. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

🚨 Vaccine Supply Resolution Slipped · 3 August 2026. In May 2026, management explicitly stated that there were no supply constraints in the new financial year's Q1. In Aug 2026, management acknowledged that availability and phasing issues remained for a couple of vaccines and would only be corrected in Q2, extending the expected resolution without explaining the change; this warrants questions about supply continuity and near-term sales timing.

Bepirovirsen Commercialization Timeline Extended · 3 August 2026. Both Feb 2026 and May 2026 indicated that Bepirovirsen market authorization was expected within six months and within that financial year. In Aug 2026, management said the product was still at least 3-4 quarters away from launch and that the launch roadmap was still being determined, representing a materially later and less certain commercialization timeline without an explanation for the change.

🚨 Supply Chain Resolution Contradiction · 13 May 2026. During the February 2026 call, management explicitly stated that supply chain issues were resolved and that the company would see no more constraints starting from Q4. However, in the May 2026 call, they admitted that lingering supply constraints on legacy brands continued through Q4, reducing top-line growth by approximately 3.5% for the period.

Bepirovirsen Market Authorization Delay · 13 May 2026. In February 2026, management estimated that the Hepatitis B treatment Bepirovirsen would receive market authorization within that financial year (FY2026). By the May 2026 call, management issued the same six-month timeline, effectively pushing the expected authorization date into the second half of the following financial year (FY2027).

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions