NMDC Steel Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

NMDC Steel Ltd trades at ₹43.7, in a confirmed uptrend and 15 weeks into that stage. That is +1.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 56% of a 52-week range of ₹35 to ₹51. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (2 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 15 of stage 2. At ₹43.7 it trades +1.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 56% of its 52-week range (₹35–₹51).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 3.5 years the stock moved +37% while the NIFTY 500 moved +56% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (2 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-08-28) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

NMDC Steel Ltd trades at 153.0× P/E, against too little history to rank. Its long-run median P/E is 218.8×, measured across 0.3 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 153.0× is against too little history to rank, against a long-run median of 218.8× measured over 0.3 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

NMDC Steel Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 11 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

4-Factor Sector Score

39.6/100 — rank 8 of 10 in Steel · 83% evidence confidence

NMDC Steel Ltd scores 39.6 out of 100 against the 10 companies it is compared with in Steel, ranking 8. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 22.2 + 3.5 + 8.5 + 5.4 = 39.6. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

NMDC Steel Ltd reported ₹3,662 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +8.8% year on year. That is the 8th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹13,642 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹13,939 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹13,642 Cr (+60.4% on the year). The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹3,662 Cr, +8.8% year on year — the 8th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +41.6% over the last 4 quarters against +65.8%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

NMDC Steel Ltd's operating margin is 11.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, −1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 3 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −47.0% to 11.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 11.0%, −1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 3 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −47.0%–11.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −1.2 pp year on year while gross margin went −1.4 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

NMDC Steel Ltd earned ₹51.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +96.2% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹59.0 Cr. That is 1.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹26.0 Cr. 9 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Jun 26 profit was ₹51.0 Cr, +96.2% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹59.0 Cr (null).

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

NMDC Steel Ltd's cash-flow history is too thin to judge how much reported profit converts into cash. In FY26 that was ₹1,796 Cr of operating cash against ₹59.0 Cr of profit. After ₹216 Cr of capital spending, ₹1,580 Cr was left as free cash. Cash resolution here is annual, because quarterly cash statements are not published.

FY26: operating cash of ₹1,796 Cr against reported profit of ₹59.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹1,580 Cr after ₹216 Cr of capital spending.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

NMDC Steel Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs −83 days in FY26, down from 141 days in FY24. Capital spending ran ₹1,907 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹13,642 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹37.4 Cr, so roughly ₹−3,102 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 5 days, inventory at 160 days — roughly 5.3 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of −83 days, tighter than FY24's 141.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 160 days to sell; customers pay about 5 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 248 days — netting out to the −83-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹13,642 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹37.4 Cr — so the −83-day loop keeps roughly ₹−3,102 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹1,907 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹2,548 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹570 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

NMDC Steel Ltd earns a ROCE of 3% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −200% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −9.9 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 0.4% net margin on 0.48× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 3%, recovered from a FY21 trough of −200% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 0.4% net margin × 0.48× asset turns × 2.14× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 0.4% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 2.1% − 12.0% = a −9.9 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

NMDC Steel Ltd carries total debt of ₹4,613 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹13,173 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.35. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.43 in FY24 to 0.35 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹4,613 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹13,173 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.35. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.43 (FY24) to 0.35 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions added 1.0 points of NMDC Steel Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 5.5% of the company. Domestic institutions moved −0.4 points over the same window, to 15.8%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: +1.0 points over 8 quarters to 5.5%; Domestic institutions: −0.4 points over 8 quarters to 15.8%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 60.8%.

Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (+1.0 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

NMDC Steel Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Frequently asked questions