Bank of Baroda (BANKBARODA) — share price & stock analysis
Bad loans have fallen from 3.8% to 2.0%, profits are compounding — and the market still prices it below its own book value.
Bank of Baroda (BANKBARODA) trades at ₹272 as of 1 July 2026, up 13% over the past year — trailing NIFTY 500 for 1 week. The machine reads this as turnaround: bad loans have fallen from 3.8% to 2.0%, profits are compounding — and the market still prices it below its own book value. the price is in Stage 1 — basing, 4 weeks in; the business cycle reads DEEP CYCLICAL / EXPANSION. Fundamentals-momentum score: 88/100 (mostly improving).
Data as of 1 July 2026 · every number traces to its Screener source column · not investment advice.
- Market cap
- ₹1,40,480 Cr
- P/BV
- 0.85×
- ROE
- 12.7%
- Book value / share
- ₹321
- Revenue (FY26)
- ₹1,34,298 Cr
- Profit after tax (FY26)
- ₹20,070 Cr
- Weinstein stage
- Stage 1 (4 weeks)
- Data as of
- 1 July 2026
Profits swing violently in this business — real losses in FY16 and FY18. That is what “deep cyclical” means: the same company looks brilliant at the top of its cycle and broken at the bottom.net_profit
Where the clock stands now: earnings sit at 97% of their historical range, margins are mid-band, and valuation history is thin. That reads as EXPANSION — the comfortable middle — the easy money off the bottom is made; from here the story has to keep delivering.net_profit
4 of the 5 things we track are currently moving the right way — nearly everything is pulling in the same direction.
Where the levels actually stand: ROE 13% — below what a bank must earn to create value; GNPA 2.0% — workable, not pristine; the spread is mid-band vs its own history. Momentum says which way things are moving; these say where they are.
Read this number for what it is: it measures the DIRECTION of change, not the quality of the business. A mediocre business getting better scores high here; a great one having a soft quarter scores low. Profit, lending and bad loans count double.
The price is building a base — waiting for its next move
STAGE 1 · BASING · 4 WEEKSStock prices move through four repeating stages: basing (1), advancing (2), topping (3) and declining (4). This one is in Stage 1: basing, 4 weeks in, confirmed.stage
Long flat bases after a decline are where the next uptrend is born — but a base can last years. The signal to act is the breakout, not the base.stage
Trailing NIFTY 500 for 1 week — relative strength is the market’s live opinion, and right now it is against it.rs_mansfield
What would end it: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the house exit rule — mechanical, no debates.dma_200
Data: Weekly price, moving averages and stage (sampled — full series in the embedded dataset)
| Period | Price (₹) | 200-DMA (₹) | 50-DMA (₹) | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16 | 133 | 158 | 138 | 4 |
| May 16 | 135 | 154 | 148 | 4 |
| Aug 16 | 150 | 153 | 153 | 4 |
| Nov 16 | 143 | 156 | 158 | 2 |
| Jan 17 | 168 | 157 | 157 | 3 |
| Apr 17 | 175 | 163 | 170 | 2 |
| Jul 17 | 165 | 168 | 169 | 2 |
| Oct 17 | 142 | 159 | 146 | 4 |
| Dec 17 | 161 | 162 | 165 | 2 |
| Mar 18 | 133 | 157 | 148 | 4 |
| Jun 18 | 131 | 149 | 139 | 4 |
| Sep 18 | 148 | 144 | 141 | 4 |
| Nov 18 | 105 | 129 | 112 | 4 |
| Feb 19 | 103 | 121 | 110 | 4 |
| May 19 | 112 | 121 | 118 | 1 |
| Aug 19 | 99.8 | 120 | 115 | 4 |
| Nov 19 | 100 | 109 | 95.9 | 4 |
| Jan 20 | 95.6 | 105 | 98.0 | 4 |
| Apr 20 | 50.2 | 89.6 | 66.4 | 4 |
| Jul 20 | 51.6 | 70.4 | 49.3 | 4 |
| Oct 20 | 42.0 | 59.6 | 45.6 | 4 |
| Dec 20 | 60.9 | 56.0 | 54.2 | 4 |
| Mar 21 | 73.7 | 65.4 | 76.8 | 2 |
| Jun 21 | 84.5 | 69.3 | 77.0 | 2 |
| Sep 21 | 79.2 | 74.4 | 79.2 | 2 |
| Nov 21 | 88.8 | 81.4 | 92.1 | 2 |
| Feb 22 | 105 | 87.7 | 99.3 | 2 |
| May 22 | 95.0 | 96.7 | 108 | 2 |
| Aug 22 | 118 | 101 | 109 | 2 |
| Oct 22 | 147 | 115 | 133 | 2 |
| Jan 23 | 179 | 142 | 175 | 2 |
| Apr 23 | 171 | 152 | 167 | 2 |
| Jul 23 | 209 | 167 | 188 | 2 |
| Sep 23 | 214 | 182 | 201 | 2 |
| Dec 23 | 224 | 192 | 208 | 2 |
| Mar 24 | 254 | 219 | 255 | 2 |
| Jun 24 | 271 | 238 | 264 | 2 |
| Aug 24 | 250 | 247 | 254 | 2 |
| Nov 24 | 236 | 246 | 247 | 3 |
| Feb 25 | 205 | 240 | 228 | 4 |
| May 25 | 220 | 234 | 231 | 4 |
| Aug 25 | 235 | 238 | 241 | 2 |
| Oct 25 | 266 | 243 | 254 | 2 |
| Jan 26 | 308 | 264 | 291 | 2 |
| Apr 26 | 264 | 274 | 280 | 2 |
| Jun 26 | 279 | 273 | 274 | 1 |
| Jul 26 | 272 | 273 | 274 | 1 |
From losing money in FY16 and FY18 to record profits
Over 12 years, income went from ₹40,463 Cr to ₹1,34,298 Cr (about 11% a year), and profit from ₹5,036 Cr to ₹20,070 Cr.revenuenet_profit
The books show real losses in FY16 and FY18 (worst: ₹−5,033 Cr). Everything about today’s cheap-looking numbers must be read against that history — the recovery is what you are buying.net_profit
Data: Revenue by year
| Period | Revenue (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|
| FY14 | 40,463 |
| FY15 | 44,915 |
| FY16 | 45,799 |
| FY17 | 44,473 |
| FY18 | 46,056 |
| FY19 | 52,906 |
| FY20 | 78,895 |
| FY21 | 74,314 |
| FY22 | 73,385 |
| FY23 | 94,139 |
| FY24 | 1,18,379 |
| FY25 | 1,27,945 |
| FY26 | 1,34,298 |
Data: Profit by year
| Period | Profit after tax (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|
| FY14 | 5,036 |
| FY15 | 3,950 |
| FY16 | -5,033 |
| FY17 | 1,855 |
| FY18 | -1,836 |
| FY19 | 1,166 |
| FY20 | 981 |
| FY21 | 1,620 |
| FY22 | 7,933 |
| FY23 | 15,005 |
| FY24 | 18,869 |
| FY25 | 20,865 |
| FY26 | 20,070 |
Data: Spread % by year
| Period | Spread % (%) |
|---|---|
| FY14 | 31.8 |
| FY15 | 32.0 |
| FY16 | 29.9 |
| FY17 | 33.5 |
| FY18 | 36.7 |
| FY19 | 38.6 |
| FY20 | 36.6 |
| FY21 | 41.9 |
| FY22 | 47.1 |
| FY23 | 46.9 |
| FY24 | 41.0 |
| FY25 | 38.8 |
| FY26 | 39.0 |
Interest income grew 5% — steady, not spectacular
Mar 26 income was ₹34,514 Cr, up 5% on a year ago. A bank grows by lending more and charging well — this line is both together.revenue
Data: Quarterly interest + fee income
| Period | Income (₹ Cr) | YoY growth (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 23 | 28,003 | – |
| Sep 23 | 29,263 | – |
| Dec 23 | 30,042 | – |
| Mar 24 | 31,072 | – |
| Jun 24 | 31,143 | 11.2 |
| Sep 24 | 31,902 | 9.0 |
| Dec 24 | 32,570 | 8.4 |
| Mar 25 | 32,820 | 5.6 |
| Jun 25 | 32,866 | 5.5 |
| Sep 25 | 33,318 | 4.4 |
| Dec 25 | 33,600 | 3.2 |
| Mar 26 | 34,514 | 5.2 |
The squeeze is easing — the spread bottomed at 38% and is mending
Of every ₹100 of interest the bank earns, ₹60 goes straight out as interest on deposits and borrowings. It keeps ₹40 — up 2 points from a year ago.revenueinterest_expense
The visible arc: squeezed from 43% down to 38% (Dec 24) as deposits repriced faster than loans, and recovering since. The direction matters more than the level now.interest_expense
Data: Share of interest income kept, quarterly
| Period | Spread kept (%) |
|---|---|
| Jun 23 | 42.6 |
| Sep 23 | 40.1 |
| Dec 23 | 40.1 |
| Mar 24 | 41.1 |
| Jun 24 | 40.3 |
| Sep 24 | 39.6 |
| Dec 24 | 38.2 |
| Mar 25 | 38.2 |
| Jun 25 | 38.2 |
| Sep 25 | 39.4 |
| Dec 25 | 38.7 |
| Mar 26 | 39.8 |
Bad loans are healing — from a worst of 3.8% (Mar 23) to 2.0%
₹2.0 of every ₹100 lent is currently stuck with borrowers who’ve stopped paying — down from ₹3.8 at the Mar 23 worst. After the money already set aside, the true exposure is 0.6%.gross_npa_pctnet_npa_pct
Falling bad loans still help — less new money needs setting aside — but this year’s profit growth is coming from the lending engine itself (interest income), not from provision releases. The healing cleans the book; the growth is earned.gross_npa_pctrevenue
Data: Bad loans as % of the book, quarterly
| Period | Gross NPA (%) | Net NPA (after provisions) (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 23 | 3.8 | 0.9 |
| Jun 23 | 3.5 | 0.8 |
| Sep 23 | 3.3 | 0.8 |
| Dec 23 | 3.1 | 0.7 |
| Mar 24 | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| Jun 24 | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| Sep 24 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| Dec 24 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| Mar 25 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| Jun 25 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| Sep 25 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Dec 25 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
Profit is flat
Mar 26 profit was ₹5,872 Cr, up 8% on last year — earnings per share of ₹11.22.net_profiteps
Where the growth comes from matters: this year it is the lending engine — net interest income — doing the lifting, not one-off provision releases. That is the more durable kind.revenue
Data: Quarterly profit after tax
| Period | PAT (₹ Cr) | YoY growth (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 23 | 4,468 | – |
| Sep 23 | 4,426 | – |
| Dec 23 | 4,815 | – |
| Mar 24 | 5,160 | – |
| Jun 24 | 4,764 | 6.6 |
| Sep 24 | 5,405 | 22.1 |
| Dec 24 | 5,250 | 9.0 |
| Mar 25 | 5,447 | 5.6 |
| Jun 25 | 3,517 | -26.2 |
| Sep 25 | 5,181 | -4.1 |
| Dec 25 | 5,501 | 4.8 |
| Mar 26 | 5,872 | 7.8 |
The biggest force in the bridge: lending more.
Data: Where the profit change came from (Mar 25 → Mar 26)
| Component | Effect (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|
| PAT Mar 25 | 5,447 |
| More interest income | +1,694 |
| Costlier deposits | −503 |
| Running costs & provisions | −443 |
| Fees & other income | −1,602 |
| Tax | +1,279 |
| PAT Mar 26 | 5,872 |
Priced mid-range against its own history
Today you pay ₹0.85 for every ₹1 of book value, against a long-run median of ₹0.80. It has traded cheaper than this only 59% of the time since 2016.pb_ratio
Data: Price-to-book over time (weekly) (sampled — full series in the embedded dataset)
| Period | P/BV (x) |
|---|---|
| Feb 16 | 0.7 |
| May 16 | 0.8 |
| Jul 16 | 0.9 |
| Sept 16 | 0.9 |
| Dec 16 | 0.9 |
| Feb 17 | 1.0 |
| Apr 17 | 0.9 |
| Jun 17 | 0.9 |
| Sept 17 | 0.7 |
| Nov 17 | 1.0 |
| Jan 18 | 0.9 |
| Apr 18 | 0.8 |
| Jun 18 | 0.7 |
| Feb 19 | 0.6 |
| May 19 | 0.7 |
| Jul 19 | 0.5 |
| Sept 19 | 0.6 |
| Nov 19 | 0.5 |
| Feb 20 | 0.6 |
| Apr 20 | 0.2 |
| Jun 20 | 0.2 |
| Sept 20 | 0.3 |
| Nov 20 | 0.3 |
| Jan 21 | 0.4 |
| Apr 21 | 0.5 |
| Jun 21 | 0.5 |
| Aug 21 | 0.5 |
| Oct 21 | 0.6 |
| Jan 22 | 0.5 |
| Mar 22 | 0.6 |
| May 22 | 0.6 |
| Aug 22 | 0.7 |
| Oct 22 | 0.7 |
| Dec 22 | 0.9 |
| Mar 23 | 0.9 |
| May 23 | 1.0 |
| Jul 23 | 0.9 |
| Sept 23 | 1.0 |
| Dec 23 | 1.0 |
| Feb 24 | 1.2 |
| Apr 24 | 1.3 |
| Jul 24 | 1.1 |
| Sept 24 | 1.0 |
| Nov 24 | 0.9 |
| Feb 25 | 0.8 |
| Apr 25 | 1.0 |
| Jun 25 | 0.8 |
| Aug 25 | 0.8 |
| Nov 25 | 0.9 |
| Jan 26 | 1.0 |
| Mar 26 | 0.8 |
| Jun 26 | 0.8 |
| Jul 26 | 0.8 |
Institutions sold for years — and have been buying back since
Promoters hold 64.0%, essentially unchanged. Foreign funds own 9.7%, domestic funds 18.9%.promoters_pctfiis_pctdiis_pct
Foreign funds tell the real story: they sold from 12.3% down to 8.1% (Jun 25), and have been buying back since — now 9.7%. A completed round trip like that usually means the doubts got answered.fiis_pct
Data: Who holds the shares, quarterly
| Period | Promoters (%) | Foreign funds (%) | Domestic funds (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23 | 64.0 | 12.3 | 15.8 |
| Sep 23 | 64.0 | 12.4 | 15.7 |
| Dec 23 | 64.0 | 12.3 | 15.8 |
| Mar 24 | 64.0 | 12.4 | 16.0 |
| Jun 24 | 64.0 | 11.5 | 15.8 |
| Sep 24 | 64.0 | 9.9 | 16.4 |
| Dec 24 | 64.0 | 8.9 | 17.9 |
| Mar 25 | 64.0 | 9.0 | 18.0 |
| Jun 25 | 64.0 | 8.1 | 18.8 |
| Sep 25 | 64.0 | 8.7 | 18.9 |
| Dec 25 | 64.0 | 9.8 | 18.7 |
| Mar 26 | 64.0 | 9.7 | 18.9 |
- Promoters are not selling. Their stake has moved 0.1 points or less in 8 quarters — it sits at 64.0%.promoters_pct
- There is no new bad-loan cycle forming — GNPA is at or near its 8-quarter low of 2.04%.gross_npa_pct
- Funding costs are not blowing up — interest paid has stayed near 60% of income all through.interest_expense
Worth studying deeper — with eyes open
The numbers lean positive, and the price is roughly fair to the delivery so far.
Best thing in the data: bad loans improving (2.4% → 2.0%).gross_npa_pct
Biggest worry: return on equity falling (16.0% → 13.0%).roe_pct
One dissent worth hearing: our technicals lens reads negative — “recent golden detected”. When a lens disagrees with the committee, it is usually pointing at the thing that breaks first.
Machine-written research from Screener data — every number traces to its source column. Sector Alpha is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell. Not investment advice.
Straight answers from the data
What does Bank of Baroda do?
Bank of Baroda is engaged in providing various services, such as personal banking, corporate banking, international banking, small and medium enterprise (SME) banking, rural banking, non-resident Indian (NRI) services and treasury services.(Source : Company Web-site). It is listed in the Banks - PSU sector with a market capitalisation of ₹1,40,480 Cr.
What is Bank of Baroda's share price?
As of 1 July 2026, Bank of Baroda trades at ₹272, up 13% over the past year, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,40,480 Cr. Trailing NIFTY 500 for 1 week. Prices are weekly closes from Screener data; this page refreshes with each weekly update.
What is Bank of Baroda's share price target?
Sector Alpha does not publish broker-style price targets. Our discounted-cash-flow model estimates Bank of Baroda's intrinsic value at ₹392 per share under base assumptions (bear ₹291, bull ₹663), against the current price of ₹272 — a 46% margin of safety. The current price already implies roughly -1% annual earnings growth. These are model estimates, not forecasts — treat them as one input alongside the valuation history below, not as a target.
What did Bank of Baroda report in its latest quarterly results?
In its most recent reported quarter (Q4 FY26, quarter ended March 2026): Mar 26 income was ₹34,514 Cr, up 5% on a year ago. A bank grows by lending more and charging well — this line is both together. Mar 26 profit was ₹5,872 Cr, up 8% on last year — earnings per share of ₹11.22. Figures are from Screener-scraped quarterly filings; the page updates when the next quarter is filed.
Is Bank of Baroda growing?
Interest income grew 5% — steady, not spectacular. Mar 26 income was ₹34,514 Cr, up 5% on a year ago. A bank grows by lending more and charging well — this line is both together.
Are Bank of Baroda's profits growing?
Profit is flat. Mar 26 profit was ₹5,872 Cr, up 8% on last year — earnings per share of ₹11.22.
How much of its interest income does Bank of Baroda keep?
The squeeze is easing — the spread bottomed at 38% and is mending. Of every ₹100 of interest the bank earns, ₹60 goes straight out as interest on deposits and borrowings. It keeps ₹40 — up 2 points from a year ago.
What is Bank of Baroda's long-term growth record?
Revenue grew from ₹40,463 Cr in FY14 to ₹1,34,298 Cr in FY26 — a 10.5% compound annual growth rate over 12 years. Profit after tax compounded at 12.2% over the same period (₹5,036 Cr → ₹20,070 Cr).
Is Bank of Baroda stock in an uptrend?
The price is building a base — waiting for its next move. Bank of Baroda is in Stage 1 — basing, 4 weeks in (confirmed). Stages follow Stan Weinstein's four-phase read of weekly price against the 200-day average: basing (1), advancing (2), topping (3), declining (4).
Is Bank of Baroda beating the NIFTY 500?
No — trailing NIFTY 500 for 1 week, as of 1 July 2026. Relative strength is measured weekly against the NIFTY 500 (Mansfield RS): a positive reading means the stock has outperformed the index over the trailing window, week after week.
Where is Bank of Baroda in its business cycle?
The data reads Bank of Baroda as a deep cyclical business currently in its expansion phase — earnings at 97% of their own historical range. Profits swing violently in this business — real losses in FY16 and FY18. That is what “deep cyclical” means: the same company looks brilliant at the top of its cycle and broken at the bottom.
Who owns Bank of Baroda — what is the promoter holding?
Promoters hold 64.0%, essentially unchanged. Foreign funds own 9.7%, domestic funds 18.9%. Foreign funds tell the real story: they sold from 12.3% down to 8.1% (Jun 25), and have been buying back since — now 9.7%. A completed round trip like that usually means the doubts got answered. Shareholding is from Screener's quarterly filings data.
How is Bank of Baroda's asset quality?
Bad loans are healing — from a worst of 3.8% (Mar 23) to 2.0%. ₹2.0 of every ₹100 lent is currently stuck with borrowers who’ve stopped paying — down from ₹3.8 at the Mar 23 worst. After the money already set aside, the true exposure is 0.6%.
What is the bull case for Bank of Baroda?
Bad loans have fallen from 3.8% to 2.0%, profits are compounding — and the market still prices it below its own book value. Best thing in the data: bad loans improving (2.4% → 2.0%). Interest income grew 5% — steady, not spectacular.
What is the bear case for Bank of Baroda — what could break the story?
Biggest worry: return on equity falling (16.0% → 13.0%). Two quarters of bad loans reversing would kill this story. The nearest-term thing to watch: a single quarter of GNPA rising again would put this story on watch. This falsification condition is stated up front so the thesis can be checked against incoming quarters, not defended after the fact.
Is Bank of Baroda a stock worth studying right now?
Sector Alpha does not publish buy or sell recommendations — this is a research read, not advice. What the data says: worth studying deeper — with eyes open. The numbers lean positive, and the price is roughly fair to the delivery so far. Across the 7-model scorecard the composite research signal is study deeper at 76% confidence. This is machine-written research compiled from Screener data — every number traces to its source — and it is not investment advice. Do your own diligence.