Automotive Axles Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Automotive Axles Ltd trades at ₹1,801, in a downtrend and 12 weeks into that stage. That is +0.4% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 47% of a 52-week range of ₹1,585 to ₹2,046. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (1 week and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 12 of stage 4. At ₹1,801 it trades +0.4% versus its 200-day average and sits at 47% of its 52-week range (₹1,585–₹2,046).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +221% while the NIFTY 500 moved +282% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (1 week and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-24) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Automotive Axles Ltd trades at 16.1× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 19% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 20.2×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 16.1× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 19% of the time, against a long-run median of 20.2× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +5.7% against a −2.4% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +4.5%/yr price move, ~+46.4%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−41.9 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +10.8%/yr price move, ~+16.1%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−5.3 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Automotive Axles Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −11.0% at the trough to +5.8%, a 5-quarter improving streak, ROCE holding at 20.7%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

4-Factor Sector Score

44.3/100 — rank 5 of 7 in Auto & Auto Ancl - CV · 90% evidence confidence

Automotive Axles Ltd scores 44.3 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in Auto & Auto Ancl - CV, ranking 5. Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 10.5 + 15.1 + 13.2 + 5.5 = 44.3. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Automotive Axles Ltd reported ₹664 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +18.6% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 7.2% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹2,178 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹2,177 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹2,178 Cr (+4.8% on the year), capping 10 years at 7.2% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹664 Cr, +18.6% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +4.3% growth against the decade's 7.2% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +4.8% over the last 4 quarters against −1.2%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +5.8% vs −0.3%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Automotive Axles Ltd's operating margin is 12.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 7.0% to 12.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 12.0%, +1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 7.0%–12.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.4 pp year on year while gross margin went +3.0 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Automotive Axles Ltd earned ₹54.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +17.4% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹164 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 16.7%. That is 8.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹46.0 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹54.0 Cr, +17.4% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹164 Cr (+5.1%), and the 10-year compound rate is 16.7%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +18.6% and the margin +1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +5.2% vs revenue +4.3%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 115% of Automotive Axles Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹173 Cr of operating cash against ₹164 Cr of profit. After ₹68.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹105 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹173 Cr against reported profit of ₹164 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹105 Cr after ₹68.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 115% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 115%: the cash cycle held roughly steady between FY21 and FY26 — so conversion tracks profitability rather than the cycle.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Automotive Axles Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 52 days in FY26, down from 62 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹94.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹2,178 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹6.0 Cr, so roughly ₹310 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 82 days, inventory at 53 days — roughly 1.7 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 52 days, tighter than FY21's 62.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 53 days to sell; customers pay about 82 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 83 days — netting out to the 52-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹2,178 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹6.0 Cr — so the 52-day loop keeps roughly ₹310 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹94.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹106 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹14.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Automotive Axles Ltd earns a ROCE of 22% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 6% in FY15. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +7.8 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 7.5% net margin on 1.43× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 22%, recovered from a FY15 trough of 6% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 7.5% net margin × 1.43× asset turns × 1.38× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 14.8% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 19.8% − 12.0% = a +7.8 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every rupee reinvested creates more than a rupee of value — the engine compounds.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Automotive Axles Ltd carries total debt of ₹14.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,099 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.01 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.04 in FY22 to 0.01 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹14.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,099 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.01. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.04 (FY22) to 0.01 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 3.9 points of Automotive Axles Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 15.4% of the company. Foreign institutions moved +0.2 points over the same window, to 0.8%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +3.9 points over 8 quarters to 15.4%; Foreign institutions: +0.2 points over 8 quarters to 0.8%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 71.0%.

Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (+3.9 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Automotive Axles Ltd: the Z-score reads 7.32. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 7.32 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 7.32.

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