Ashok Leyland Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Ashok Leyland Ltd trades at ₹172, in a downtrend and 6 weeks into that stage. That is +6.9% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 48% of a 52-week range of ₹135 to ₹211. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 3 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 6 of stage 4. At ₹172 it trades +6.9% versus its 200-day average and sits at 48% of its 52-week range (₹135–₹211).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +301% while the NIFTY 500 moved +284% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 3 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Ashok Leyland Ltd trades at 27.1× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (70th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 24.5×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 27.1× is at the pricey end of its own range (70th percentile), against a long-run median of 24.5× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +11.7% against a +40.7% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 10y, of the +14.8%/yr price move, ~+14.7%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+0.1 pp from the multiple (roughly flat). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

The PEG ratio and its quarterly curve, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 17% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Ashok Leyland Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE lifting at 14.0% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 9 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

42.9/100 — rank 6 of 7 in Auto & Auto Ancl - CV · 82% evidence confidence

Ashok Leyland Ltd scores 42.9 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in Auto & Auto Ancl - CV, ranking 6. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 14.8 + 12.4 + 8.8 + 6.9 = 42.9. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Ashok Leyland Ltd reported ₹13,070 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +11.6% year on year. That is the 7th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 8.6% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹48,314 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹57,723 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹48,314 Cr (+14.1% on the year), capping 10 years at 8.6% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹13,070 Cr, +11.6% year on year — the 7th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +16.4% growth against the decade's 8.6% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +16.5% over the last 4 quarters against +11.1%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +6.9% vs +18.4%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Ashok Leyland Ltd's operating margin is 18.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, −1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.0% to 17.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 18.0%, −1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.0%–17.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −0.1 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.4 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Ashok Leyland Ltd earned ₹668 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +1.5% year on year. It is the 8th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹3,721 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 18.0%. That is 5.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹658 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹668 Cr, +1.5% year on year — the 8th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹3,721 Cr (+10.0%), and the 10-year compound rate is 18.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +11.6% and the margin −1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +6.1% vs revenue +16.4%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years −113% of Ashok Leyland Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹−4,895 Cr of operating cash against ₹3,721 Cr of profit. After ₹3,099 Cr of capital spending, ₹−7,994 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹−4,895 Cr against reported profit of ₹3,721 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−7,994 Cr after ₹3,099 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is −113% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at −113%: the cash cycle held roughly steady between FY21 and FY26 — so conversion tracks profitability rather than the cycle. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 1.9× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Ashok Leyland Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs −26 days in FY26, up from −30 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹6,130 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹48,314 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹132 Cr, so roughly ₹−3,442 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 23 days, inventory at 50 days — roughly 1.6 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of −26 days, looser than FY21's −30.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 50 days to sell; customers pay about 23 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 100 days — netting out to the −26-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹48,314 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹132 Cr — so the −26-day loop keeps roughly ₹−3,442 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹6,130 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹3,152 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹940 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Ashok Leyland Ltd earns a ROCE of 14% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −2% in FY14. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 7.7% net margin on 0.48× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 14%, recovered from a FY14 trough of −2% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 7.7% net margin × 0.48× asset turns × 7.07× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 26.1% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 17% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Ashok Leyland Ltd carries ₹63,936 Cr of borrowings against ₹14,241 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 4.49. Operating profit covers the interest bill 1×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹24,077 Cr to ₹63,936 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹6,130 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹63,936 Cr against equity of ₹14,241 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 4.49. Operating profit covers the interest bill 1×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹24,077 Cr to ₹63,936 Cr while capital spending ran ₹6,130 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 17% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 1.6 points of Ashok Leyland Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 15.8% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −1.4 points over the same window, to 20.7%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +1.6 points over 8 quarters to 15.8%; Foreign institutions: −1.4 points over 8 quarters to 20.7%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 51.5%.

Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (+1.6 points), absorbed on the other side by foreign institutions (−1.4 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Ashok Leyland Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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