Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.
VISTVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s price has outrun its earnings. +120.4% in a year against EPS +44.8% — the market is paying now for delivery later.
The sharpest disagreement: the price moved +120.4% in a year while annual EPS moved +44.8% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings.
The price is in a confirmed uptrend (23 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 74th percentile of its own 5-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read improving — profit +37.5% year on year, and 154% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. trades at $74.3, in a confirmed uptrend and 23 weeks into that stage. That is +16.5% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 95% of a 52-week range of $35 to $76. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 2 straight weeks.
Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 23 of stage 2. At $74.3 it trades +16.5% versus its 200-day average and sits at 95% of its 52-week range ($35–$76).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 7.1 years the stock moved +700% while the S&P 500 moved +158% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 2 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. trades at 10.5× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (74th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 8.9×, measured across 4.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/E of 10.5× is at the pricey end of its own range (74th percentile), against a long-run median of 8.9× measured over 4.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +44.8% against a +120.4% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.
The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +39.8%/yr price move, ~+26.8%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+13.0 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.
Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.
Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 28.5% and holding. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.
Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +49.7% | +27.6% | — | — |
| Profit | +50.0% | +38.7% | — | — |
| EPS | +44.8% | +34.5% | — | — |
| Stock price | +120.4% | +39.8% | +75.0% | — |
4-Factor Sector Score
53.5/100 — rank 11 of 30 in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · 58% evidence confidence
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. scores 53.5 out of 100 against the 30 companies it is compared with in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, ranking 11. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 15.1 + 15.6 + 11 + 11.8 = 53.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. reported $0.9 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +97.7% year on year. That is the 8th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 38.6% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $2.5 B. The last four reported quarters add to $2.9 B.
FY25 revenue came in at $2.5 B (+49.7% on the year), capping 4 years at 38.6% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $0.9 B, +97.7% year on year — the 8th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +64.4% growth against the decade's 38.6% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.
Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +64.4% over the last 4 quarters against +57.7%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +58.3% vs +49.5%/yr — accelerating.
Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s operating margin is 25.3% in the Mar 26 quarter, −6.5 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 31.3% to 53.8%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.
The latest quarter's operating margin is 25.3%, −6.5 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 31.3%–53.8%.
🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −6.5 pp year on year while gross margin went +6.3 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. earned $0.1 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +37.5% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.7 B. The 4-year compound rate is 94.8%. That is 12.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.1 B.
Mar 26 profit was $0.1 B, +37.5% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.7 B (+50.0%), and the 4-year compound rate is 94.8%.
Why profit moved: revenue contributed +97.7% and the margin −6.5 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.
Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +49.3% vs revenue +64.4%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.
Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.
Over the last 3 fiscal years 154% of Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $0.8 B of operating cash against $0.7 B of profit. After $1.5 B of capital spending, $−0.7 B was left as free cash.
FY25: operating cash of $0.8 B against reported profit of $0.7 B, leaving free cash of $−0.7 B after $1.5 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 154% of profit.
Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.
Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.
Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.
Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $3.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 40.5% of FY25 revenue a year.
Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.
On the investment side: capital spending of $3.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.
The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.
Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. earns a ROE of 29% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 9% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +11.4 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 29.1% net margin on 0.35× asset turns.
FY25 ROE is 29%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 9% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.
Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 29.1% net margin × 0.35× asset turns × 2.83× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 28.8% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.
The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 14.2% − 2.8% = a +11.4 pp spread. The 2.8% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every dollar reinvested creates more than a dollar of value — the engine compounds.
Dividend
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. pays no dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.
Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. carries total debt of $3.8 B against shareholder equity of $3.7 B as of Jun 26, a debt-to-equity of 1.01. On the annual view that ratio went from 1.12 in FY21 to 1.31 in FY25. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.
Jun 26: total debt of $3.8 B against shareholder equity of $3.7 B — a debt-to-equity of 1.01. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 1.12 (FY21) to 1.31 (FY25). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.
Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.
No ownership or positioning reading is held for Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., so this section names the gap rather than filling it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 2.6 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.
We hold no ownership or positioning reading for this stock, so this section says that plainly.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.: the Z-score reads 1.66. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits inside the distress zone. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.
🚨 Why it matters: a Z-score of 1.66 is inside the distress zone — the balance sheet is a real risk, not a detail.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 1.66.
| Company | Score | Price stage | Growth & earnings/35 | Capital efficiency/25 | Valuation/20 | Relative strength/20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Canadian Natural Resources LimitedCNQ | 76.1/100Favorable setup85% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 30.3/35 Revenue 17.6% · PAT 41.3% · OPM change 19.4 pp 95% evidence | 16.0/25 ROCE 7.8% · OPM 43.1% 76% evidence | 14.3/20 P/E 10× · PEG 0.23 65% evidence | 15.5/20 RS sector 9.1% · RS bench 14.4% · 1Y 58.5%4 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 30.3 + 16 + 14.3 + 15.5 = 76.1 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 2APA CorporationAPA | 70.3/100Favorable setup81% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 21.6/35 Revenue -17.4% · PAT 37.2% · OPM change 15.2 pp 83% evidence | 14.3/25 ROCE 6.4% · OPM 42.9% 76% evidence | 15.1/20 P/E 9.9× · PEG 0.18 65% evidence | 19.3/20 RS sector 24.4% · RS bench 29.9% · 1Y 90.8%5 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 21.6 + 14.3 + 15.1 + 19.3 = 70.3 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 3Occidental Petroleum CorporationOXY | 69.1/100Favorable setup85% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 26.0/35 Revenue -11.3% · PAT 82.1% · OPM change 30.9 pp 95% evidence | 14.3/25 ROCE 5.2% · OPM 46.7% 76% evidence | 15.3/20 P/E 7.5× · PEG 0.22 65% evidence | 13.5/20 RS sector 3.6% · RS bench 8.8% · 1Y 28.8%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 26 + 14.3 + 15.3 + 13.5 = 69.1 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 4EOG Resources, Inc.EOG | 67.9/100Favorable setup85% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 27.2/35 Revenue 19.1% · PAT 20% · OPM change 9 pp 95% evidence | 15.8/25 ROCE 7.8% · OPM 40.9% 76% evidence | 12.6/20 P/E 10.1× · PEG 0.41 65% evidence | 12.3/20 RS sector 2.4% · RS bench 7.9% · 1Y 24.9%4 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 27.2 + 15.8 + 12.6 + 12.3 = 67.9 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 5ConocoPhillipsCOP | 66.0/100Favorable setup85% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 22.0/35 Revenue 9.6% · PAT 1.1% · OPM change 12.8 pp 95% evidence | 14.7/25 ROCE 5.3% · OPM 30.7% 76% evidence | 13.0/20 P/E 13.8× · PEG 0.27 65% evidence | 16.3/20 RS sector 7.5% · RS bench 13% · 1Y 44.2%5 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 22 + 14.7 + 13 + 16.3 = 66 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 6Ovintiv Inc.OVV | 60.5/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 20.1/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 1.8 pp 45% evidence | 15.9/25 ROCE 15.8% · OPM 29.2% 76% evidence | 9.4/20 P/E 16.1× · PEG — 15% evidence | 15.1/20 RS sector 10.8% · RS bench 16.1% · 1Y 52.2%6 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 20.1 + 15.9 + 9.4 + 15.1 = 60.5 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 7Devon Energy CorporationDVN | 59.1/100Mixed-positive evidence75% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 22.2/35 Revenue 14.6% · PAT 13.2% · OPM change 8.3 pp 95% evidence | 14.2/25 ROCE 5% · OPM 31% 76% evidence | 10.9/20 P/E 9.8× · PEG — 15% evidence | 11.8/20 RS sector 2.4% · RS bench 7.6% · 1Y 42.6%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 22.2 + 14.2 + 10.9 + 11.8 = 59.1 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 8Crescent Energy CompanyCRGY | 58.3/100Mixed-positive evidence64% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 20.3/35 Revenue 18.3% · PAT — · OPM change 9.6 pp 62% evidence | 9.4/25 ROCE 3.4% · OPM 27.7% 76% evidence | 9.5/20 P/E 15.5× · PEG — 15% evidence | 19.1/20 RS sector 18.9% · RS bench 24.4% · 1Y 71.2%4 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 20.3 + 9.4 + 9.5 + 19.1 = 58.3 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 9Diamondback Energy, Inc.FANG | 57.4/100Mixed-positive evidence85% evidence | TURNING | 22.5/35 Revenue 21.4% · PAT -64.1% · OPM change 14.2 pp 95% evidence | 13.7/25 ROCE 3.8% · OPM 45.2% 76% evidence | 13.8/20 P/E 34.3× · PEG 0.1 65% evidence | 7.4/20 RS sector -1.2% · RS bench 4% · 1Y 39.3%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 22.5 + 13.7 + 13.8 + 7.4 = 57.4 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 10Permian Resources CorporationPR | 54.2/100Mixed-positive evidence81% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 12.7/35 Revenue -1.1% · PAT -46.3% · OPM change -2.9 pp 83% evidence | 12.4/25 ROCE 2.9% · OPM 33.7% 76% evidence | 11.5/20 P/E 24.8× · PEG 0.38 65% evidence | 17.6/20 RS sector 15.3% · RS bench 20.7% · 1Y 73.2%5 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 12.7 + 12.4 + 11.5 + 17.6 = 54.2 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 20.7%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation. | ||||||
| 11Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.this pageVIST | 53.5/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | TURNING | 15.1/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change -7.5 pp 45% evidence | 15.6/25 ROCE 8.9% · OPM 24.9% 76% evidence | 11.0/20 P/E 8.4× · PEG — 15% evidence | 11.8/20 RS sector 11.4% · RS bench 16.6% · 1Y 120.4%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 15.1 + 15.6 + 11 + 11.8 = 53.5 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 12Gulfport Energy CorporationGPOR | 53.4/100Mixed-positive evidence64% evidence | BASING | 25.9/35 Revenue 90.8% · PAT — · OPM change 45.9 pp 62% evidence | 14.2/25 ROCE 8.9% · OPM 52% 76% evidence | 11.4/20 P/E 7.2× · PEG — 15% evidence | 1.9/20 RS sector -23.9% · RS bench -19.2% · 1Y -3%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 25.9 + 14.2 + 11.4 + 1.9 = 53.4 · Decision use: Acceleration candidate, not a confirmed leader: earnings are strong but sector-relative strength is -23.9% and the one-year return is -3%. Do not upgrade until sector-relative strength is above zero and another reported period confirms growth. | ||||||
| 13Baytex Energy Corp.BTE | 51.5/100Thin evidence · provisional53% evidence | TURNING | 17.8/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change -10.5 pp 32% evidence | 9.9/25 ROCE 4.3% · OPM 12.8% 76% evidence | 10.1/20 P/E 11.6× · PEG — 15% evidence | 13.7/20 RS sector 14.5% · RS bench 19.9% · 1Y 104.6%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 17.8 + 9.9 + 10.1 + 13.7 = 51.5 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 14SM Energy CompanySM | 50.6/100Mixed-positive evidence81% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 11.7/35 Revenue 27.3% · PAT -84% · OPM change -52.8 pp 83% evidence | 6.5/25 ROCE -2.6% · OPM -20.1% 76% evidence | 12.4/20 P/E 13.1× · PEG 0.35 65% evidence | 20.0/20 RS sector 29.6% · RS bench 35.8% · 1Y 48.7%7 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 11.7 + 6.5 + 12.4 + 20 = 50.6 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 35.8%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation. | ||||||
| 15Black Stone Minerals, L.P.BSM | 49.3/100Mixed-negative evidence81% evidence | FADING | 21.8/35 Revenue 20.9% · PAT 33.2% · OPM change -1 pp 83% evidence | 9.8/25 ROCE 1.3% · OPM 28% 76% evidence | 13.0/20 P/E 11.9× · PEG 0.31 65% evidence | 4.7/20 RS sector -8.1% · RS bench -2.5% · 1Y 14.1%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 21.8 + 9.8 + 13 + 4.7 = 49.3 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 16Antero Resources CorporationAR | 46.6/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 20.5/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 17.4 pp 45% evidence | 10.8/25 ROCE 3% · OPM 37.5% 76% evidence | 10.5/20 P/E 10.1× · PEG — 15% evidence | 4.8/20 RS sector -11.8% · RS bench -6.9% · 1Y 12.6%4 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 20.5 + 10.8 + 10.5 + 4.8 = 46.6 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 17Texas Pacific Land CorporationTPL | 46.2/100Mixed-negative evidence85% evidence | ASLEEP | 19.1/35 Revenue 20.7% · PAT 17.1% · OPM change 1.4 pp 95% evidence | 21.7/25 ROCE 38.2% · OPM 78.2% 76% evidence | 3.8/20 P/E 55.8× · PEG 3.21 65% evidence | 1.6/20 RS sector -17.7% · RS bench -13.9% · 1Y 19.5%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 19.1 + 21.7 + 3.8 + 1.6 = 46.2 · Decision use: Strong business, demanding price: keep it on the quality list, but require either earnings upgrades or valuation compression. | ||||||
| 18Chord Energy CorporationCHRD | 46.0/100Mixed-negative evidence71% evidence | TURNING | 10.0/35 Revenue -1% · PAT -89.1% · OPM change -7.8 pp 83% evidence | 10.3/25 ROCE 2.9% · OPM 20% 76% evidence | 8.5/20 P/E 125.3× · PEG — 15% evidence | 17.2/20 RS sector 12.1% · RS bench 17.5% · 1Y 46.5%3 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 10 + 10.3 + 8.5 + 17.2 = 46 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 17.5%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation. | ||||||
| 19Range Resources CorporationRRC | 45.8/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | TURNING | 19.7/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 11.9 pp 45% evidence | 11.6/25 ROCE 2.8% · OPM 46.7% 76% evidence | 10.4/20 P/E 10.3× · PEG — 15% evidence | 4.1/20 RS sector -11.9% · RS bench -7% · 1Y 12.6%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 19.7 + 11.6 + 10.4 + 4.1 = 45.8 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 20Magnolia Oil & Gas CorporationMGY | 44.5/100Mixed-negative evidence81% evidence | ASLEEP | 13.0/35 Revenue -1.9% · PAT -18.7% · OPM change -3.2 pp 83% evidence | 14.3/25 ROCE 4.9% · OPM 35.6% 76% evidence | 14.1/20 P/E 18.4× · PEG 0.1 65% evidence | 3.1/20 RS sector -10.9% · RS bench -6.2% · 1Y 8.7%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 13 + 14.3 + 14.1 + 3.1 = 44.5 · Decision use: Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity. | ||||||
| 21Talos Energy Inc.TALO | 42.3/100Thin evidence · provisional56% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 12.1/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change -33.8 pp 39% evidence | 3.9/25 ROCE -2.4% · OPM -25.3% 76% evidence | 8.7/20 P/E 69.4× · PEG — 15% evidence | 17.6/20 RS sector 16.9% · RS bench 22.5% · 1Y 95.1%6 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 12.1 + 3.9 + 8.7 + 17.6 = 42.3 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 22CNX Resources CorporationCNX | 41.7/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 16.5/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 347.8 pp 45% evidence | 11.5/25 ROCE 3.4% · OPM 60.4% 76% evidence | 11.5/20 P/E 5.7× · PEG — 15% evidence | 2.2/20 RS sector -18.4% · RS bench -13.6% · 1Y 11%3 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 16.5 + 11.5 + 11.5 + 2.2 = 41.7 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 23Matador Resources CompanyMTDR | 40.6/100Mixed-negative evidence81% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 9.2/35 Revenue -2.9% · PAT -42.9% · OPM change -33.7 pp 83% evidence | 7.3/25 ROCE 0.5% · OPM 5% 76% evidence | 10.5/20 P/E 16.2× · PEG 0.9 65% evidence | 13.6/20 RS sector 1.8% · RS bench 6.9% · 1Y 27.1%3 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 9.2 + 7.3 + 10.5 + 13.6 = 40.6 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 6.9%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation. | ||||||
| 24Expand Energy CorporationEXE | 39.8/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | TURNING | 16.6/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 47 pp 45% evidence | 9.3/25 ROCE 2.6% · OPM 34.8% 76% evidence | 11.2/20 P/E 7.9× · PEG — 15% evidence | 2.7/20 RS sector -23.7% · RS bench -18.8% · 1Y -9.9%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 16.6 + 9.3 + 11.2 + 2.7 = 39.8 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 25EQT CorporationEQT | 37.2/100Mixed-negative evidence85% evidence | BASING | 19.5/35 Revenue 32.3% · PAT 100% · OPM change -22.5 pp 95% evidence | 8.3/25 ROCE 1% · OPM 21.8% 76% evidence | 7.8/20 P/E 12.3× · PEG 1.84 65% evidence | 1.6/20 RS sector -20.6% · RS bench -15.9% · 1Y 2.5%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 19.5 + 8.3 + 7.8 + 1.6 = 37.2 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 26Comstock Resources, Inc.CRK | 37.2/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | ASLEEP | 16.4/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 5.2 pp 45% evidence | 6.8/25 ROCE 0.4% · OPM 29.8% 76% evidence | 11.1/20 P/E 8.4× · PEG — 15% evidence | 2.9/20 RS sector -38.1% · RS bench -33.9% · 1Y -22.5%3 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 16.4 + 6.8 + 11.1 + 2.9 = 37.2 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 27Murphy Oil CorporationMUR | 36.5/100Mixed-negative evidence71% evidence | TURNING | 11.7/35 Revenue -5.1% · PAT -74.8% · OPM change -2.5 pp 83% evidence | 9.0/25 ROCE 1.6% · OPM 18.9% 76% evidence | 8.6/20 P/E 69.9× · PEG — 15% evidence | 7.2/20 RS sector -1.8% · RS bench 3.5% · 1Y 43.9%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 11.7 + 9 + 8.6 + 7.2 = 36.5 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 28Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.NOG | 29.4/100Adverse evidence67% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 4.0/35 Revenue -22.7% · PAT -196.1% · OPM change -13060.2 pp 83% evidence | 6.5/25 ROCE -13.5% · OPM — 61% evidence | 8.9/20 P/E 55.1× · PEG — 15% evidence | 10.0/20 RS sector -6% · RS bench -1% · 1Y 1%5 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 4 + 6.5 + 8.9 + 10 = 29.4 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 29California Resources CorporationCRC | 22.8/100Adverse evidence71% evidence | BASING | 4.8/35 Revenue -21.3% · PAT -192.4% · OPM change -617.9 pp 83% evidence | 4.8/25 ROCE -12.3% · OPM -597.5% 76% evidence | 10.3/20 P/E 10.8× · PEG — 15% evidence | 2.9/20 RS sector -11.3% · RS bench -6.8% · 1Y -1%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 4.8 + 4.8 + 10.3 + 2.9 = 22.8 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 30Woodside Energy Group LtdWDS | 50.9/100Thin evidence · provisional32% evidence | TURNING | 17.4/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change — 9% evidence | 10.1/25 ROCE 1.8% · OPM — 46% evidence | 10.2/20 P/E 11× · PEG — 15% evidence | 13.2/20 RS sector 4.1% · RS bench 9% · 1Y 52.4%2 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 17.4 + 10.1 + 10.2 + 13.2 = 50.9 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
Missing observations are not scored as bad. Their missing weight lowers confidence and pulls the final score toward neutral. PEG is not shown when the ratio cannot mean anything: the company must be making a profit, its price-to-earnings must be positive, and its three-year earnings growth must fall between 5% and 60%. Dividing a price multiple by a loss, or by growth measured off a tiny base, produces a number that looks precise and tells you nothing. Under relative strength, one mark per week shows the last 12 weeks: a mark is filled where the company led S&P 500 by 5% or more over the 13 weeks ending that week, which is the same test used everywhere on this site. Price stage places the company on the same six-step curve the sector itself is placed on — basing, turning, breaking out, leader, fading, asleep — read from how many weeks running it has led S&P 500 and whether that lead is widening or shrinking. It describes where the PRICE stands, not the earnings trajectory and not a recommendation, and it is left blank for a company whose weekly history is too short or too stale to read.
Frequently asked questions
What is Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s stock price today?
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. trades at $74.3, +120.4% over the past year. The company is valued at $9.0 B. The stock sits at 95% of its 52-week range of $35–$76, +16.5% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a confirmed uptrend, 23 weeks in. — as of 17 September 2026.
What were Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s latest quarterly results?
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. reported revenue of $0.9 B and net profit of $0.1 B for the Mar 26 quarter. Revenue rose 97.7% and profit rose 37.5% year on year. Earnings per share were $0.98. The operating margin was 25.3%, 6.5 pp lower than a year earlier. — as of 17 September 2026.
What is Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s revenue?
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. reported revenue of $0.9 B in the Mar 26 quarter, +97.7% year on year. For the full FY25 fiscal year, revenue was $2.5 B (+49.7%). Over the last 4 years revenue compounded at 38.6% a year. — as of 17 September 2026.
What is Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s profit?
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. earned $0.1 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +37.5% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.7 B. The operating margin ran 25.3% in the latest quarter. — as of 17 September 2026.
What is Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s market cap?
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s market capitalisation is $9.0 B at a stock price of $74.3. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 17 September 2026.
What is Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s P/E ratio?
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. trades at a P/E of 10.5×, at the 74th percentile of its own 5-year range, against a long-run median of 8.9×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 17 September 2026.
Does Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. pay a dividend?
No — Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. has declared no dividend per share in any of its last 12 reported quarters, so there is no payout history and no yield to quote. That is a reading of the filed statements, not an estimate. — as of 17 September 2026.
Is Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. overvalued?
On its own history, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. looks expensive: its P/E of 10.5× sits at the 74th percentile of its 5-year range (long-run median 8.9×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. — as of 17 September 2026.
Is Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. growing?
Yes — Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. is growing: latest-quarter revenue +97.7% year on year, profit +37.5%, and the margin −6.5 pp at 25.3%. The 4-year compound rates are 38.6% (revenue) and 94.8% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 17 September 2026.
How is Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. performing?
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. is in a confirmed uptrend, 23 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 97.7% and profit rose 37.5% year on year. Against the S&P 500 it has been ahead on a trailing-13-week view for 2 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 17 September 2026.
What stage is Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in?
Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 28.5% and holding. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +64.4% latest, profit growth +58.3% latest, eps growth +42.8% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 17 September 2026.
Is Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in an uptrend?
Yes — the price is in a confirmed uptrend (week 23 of stage 2), trading +16.5% versus its 200-day average and at 95% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 17 September 2026.
Is Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. beating the market?
On recent form, yes — Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 2 straight weeks, the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 7.1 years the stock moved +700% against the S&P 500's +158% — ahead of the index over the full window. — as of 17 September 2026.
Will Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s stock price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. What it measures instead: the stock price is $74.3, the price is in a confirmed uptrend 23 weeks in. Its P/E of 10.5× sits at the 74th percentile of its own 5-year range. — as of 17 September 2026.
Does Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. have too much debt?
It carries real leverage — Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s debt-to-equity is 1.07. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so the latest reading is the cleanest hold. Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind — as of 17 September 2026.
What is Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s capex?
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. spent $3.0 B on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY25 alone that was $1.5 B. — as of 17 September 2026.
What is Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s cash flow?
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. generated $0.8 B of operating cash flow in FY25 and $−0.7 B of free cash flow after $1.5 B of capital spending. Reported profit that year was $0.7 B, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. — as of 17 September 2026.
Is Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s profit real cash?
Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 154% of Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash. Though the latest year ran at 111% — the trend is the thing to watch. In FY25, operating cash was $0.8 B against reported profit of $0.7 B. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 17 September 2026.
How financially safe is Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.?
On the balance sheet, the Z-score reads 1.66 — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the distress zone. That is inside the danger band — a real balance-sheet risk. — as of 17 September 2026.
Where is Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in its business cycle?
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s FY25 operating margin was 50.6%, against a 5-year band of 31.3%–53.8%: mid-band by its own history — neither the peak that precedes mean-reversion nor the trough that precedes recovery. The latest quarter ran 25.3%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 17 September 2026.
What could break the Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. story?
The sharpest disagreement: the price moved +120.4% in a year while annual EPS moved +44.8% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 17 September 2026.
Is Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s price has outrun its earnings. +120.4% in a year against EPS +44.8% — the market is paying now for delivery later. The sharpest open question: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 17 September 2026.
Not SEBI Registered !! Not Investment advice !!