Pony AI Inc.

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Pony AI Inc. trades at $8.0, in a downtrend and 11 weeks into that stage. That is −33.2% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 8% of a 52-week range of $7 to $24. On relative strength it is currently behind the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view (23 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 11 of stage 4. At $8.0 it trades −33.2% versus its 200-day average and sits at 8% of its 52-week range ($7–$24).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.7 years the stock moved −38% while the S&P 500 moved +28% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (23 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-02-27) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

P/E does not price Pony AI Inc. — earnings are negative, so there is no multiple to rank against its own history. The revenue and margin lines below are where a turn, when it comes, would show first. On sales the market values Pony AI Inc. at 33.3× its FY25 revenue of $0.1 B.

With earnings negative, P/E does not price — there is no multiple to rank against its own history. The revenue and margin lines below are where the turn, when it comes, will show first.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Pony AI Inc. reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 10 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

The latest quarter’s profit carries a one-off item larger than the operating base, so the profit curve is shown but does not vote in the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

4-Factor Sector Score

39.8/100 — rank 21 of 27 in Information Technology Services · 61% evidence confidence

Pony AI Inc. scores 39.8 out of 100 against the 27 companies it is compared with in Information Technology Services, ranking 21. Acceleration candidate, not a confirmed leader: earnings are strong but sector-relative strength is -42.4% and the one-year return is -45.4%. Do not upgrade until sector-relative strength is above zero and another reported period confirms growth.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 24.6 + 4 + 10 + 1.2 = 39.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Pony AI Inc. reported $0.0 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +200.0% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at 73.2% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $0.1 B. The last four reported quarters add to $0.1 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $0.1 B (+12.5% on the year), capping 4 years at 73.2% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $0.0 B, +200.0% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +118.8% growth against the decade's 73.2% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +57.1% over the last 4 quarters against +17.3%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Pony AI Inc.'s operating margin is −200.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +400.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −2,200.0% to −200.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is −200.0%, +400.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −2,200.0%–−200.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +400.0 pp year on year while gross margin went +33.3 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Pony AI Inc. posted a net loss of $0.1 B in the Mar 26 quarter. That quarter carries a one-off item larger than its own revenue, so the year-on-year figure is an artefact rather than a trading result. The full FY25 year was a loss of $0.1 B. That loss is 166.7% of the quarter's revenue.

Mar 26 profit was $−0.1 B, null year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $−0.1 B (null).

🚨 Read this profit with care: at $−0.1 B it is larger than the whole quarter's revenue of $0.0 B — no operating business earns more than it sells, so this is a one-off item (a debt-to-equity conversion, a tax write-back or an asset sale), not money the business earned. The underlying operations are running at −200.0% operating margin; the year-on-year jump and any P/E built on this number are artefacts of the one-off, not a real earnings turn.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Pony AI Inc.'s cash-flow history is too thin to judge how much reported profit converts into cash. In FY25 that was $−0.2 B of operating cash against $−0.1 B of profit. After $0.0 B of capital spending, $−0.2 B was left as free cash. Cash resolution here is annual, because quarterly cash statements are not published.

FY25: operating cash of $−0.2 B against reported profit of $−0.1 B, leaving free cash of $−0.2 B after $0.0 B of capital spending.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Pony AI Inc. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $0.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 0.0% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $0.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

Pony AI Inc. earns a ROE of −5% in FY25. That is up from a trough of −29% in FY24. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is −88.9% net margin on 0.05× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is −5%, recovered from a FY24 trough of −29% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): −88.9% net margin × 0.05× asset turns × 1.06× balance-sheet leverage ≈ −4.7% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

Dividend

Pony AI Inc. pays no dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.

Pony AI Inc. does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Pony AI Inc. carries total debt of $0.0 B against shareholder equity of $1.7 B as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.01 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.00 in FY21 to 0.01 in FY25. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of $0.0 B against shareholder equity of $1.7 B — a debt-to-equity of 0.01. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.00 (FY21) to 0.01 (FY25). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

No ownership or positioning reading is held for Pony AI Inc., so this section names the gap rather than filling it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 7.0 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

We hold no ownership or positioning reading for this stock, so this section says that plainly.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Pony AI Inc.: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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