Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. trades at $154, in a downtrend and 22 weeks into that stage. That is −3.2% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 18% of a 52-week range of $140 to $218. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 1 straight week.

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 22 of stage 4. At $154 it trades −3.2% versus its 200-day average and sits at 18% of its 52-week range ($140–$218).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.2 years the stock moved +285% while the S&P 500 moved +255% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 1 straight week — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. trades at 18.6× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 32% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 19.6×, measured across 4.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 18.6× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 32% of the time, against a long-run median of 19.6× measured over 4.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −0.3% against a −26.7% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +11.5%/yr price move, ~+9.1%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+2.4 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 12 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

61.1/100 — rank 3 of 20 in Education & Training Services · 58% evidence confidence

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. scores 61.1 out of 100 against the 20 companies it is compared with in Education & Training Services, ranking 3. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 22.1 + 21.5 + 9.8 + 7.7 = 61.1. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. reported $0.3 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +6.9% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 5.4% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $1.1 B. The last four reported quarters add to $1.1 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $1.1 B (+7.8% on the year), capping 4 years at 5.4% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $0.3 B, +6.9% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +7.7% growth against the decade's 5.4% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +7.6% over the last 4 quarters against +7.4%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +4.5% vs +2.2%/yr — stabilising.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s operating margin is 32.3% in the Mar 26 quarter, +1.3 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 24.3% to 31.1%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 32.3%, +1.3 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 24.3%–31.1%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +1.3 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.0 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. earned $0.1 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +14.3% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.2 B. The 4-year compound rate is −4.1%. That is 25.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.1 B.

Mar 26 profit was $0.1 B, +14.3% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.2 B (−4.3%), and the 4-year compound rate is −4.1%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +6.9% and the margin +1.3 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +2.5% vs revenue +7.7%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 123% of Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $0.3 B of operating cash against $0.2 B of profit. After $0.0 B of capital spending, $0.2 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $0.3 B against reported profit of $0.2 B, leaving free cash of $0.2 B after $0.0 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 123% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $0.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 0.0% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $0.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Returns on capital ROE is the profit the business earns on the money invested in it — the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

An annual ROE ladder is not held for Grand Canyon Education, Inc..

We do not hold an annual ROE series for Grand Canyon Education, Inc.. Its filings carry the return lines we would need as blanks rather than numbers, so this page does not estimate one. The revenue, margin, cash-flow and ownership sections are the reads we stand behind.

Dividend

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. pays no dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Debt-to-equity is 0.16 at the latest reading — effectively unlevered; a full borrowings history is not in our numbers.

We hold only the latest reading here: a debt-to-equity of 0.16 — the balance sheet is effectively unlevered, so the returns above are earned, not borrowed. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so we say that rather than draw a chart we cannot support.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

8.1% of Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s tradable float is currently sold short — some money is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 6.9 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

The latest reading: 8.1% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 6.9 days to buy those positions back. Some money is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.

Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Grand Canyon Education, Inc.: the Z-score reads 18.43. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 18.43 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 18.43.

Frequently asked questions