Solar Industries India Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Solar Industries India Ltd trades at ₹22,290, in a confirmed uptrend and 23 weeks into that stage. That is +32.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 100% of a 52-week range of ₹11,911 to ₹22,290. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 5 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 23 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹22,290 it trades +32.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 100% of its 52-week range (₹11,911–₹22,290).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +3,421% while the NIFTY 500 moved +267% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 5 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Solar Industries India Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 17 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: FULLY_EXPANDED. Still open: Bhargavastra delayed 9 months, 155mm delayed 2 quarters, FY26 defense revenue 12% short — three consecutive misses; FY27 ₹4,500 Cr target requires 70% growth.

Our read, 17 May 2026. Defense doubling every year revalues a commodity explosives company into a high-tech munitions platform — but management has missed three consecutive guidance targets.

From the numbers. PE at 93.4x is above the prior 10Y peak of 46.3x (March 2018). At 83rd percentile of 10-year range and 1.93x the 10Y median. This is a rerating story — the market is pricing the defense-platform thesis. DII selling is…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 23 — above its 200-day line, relative strength rising.

From the research. Defense doubling every year revalues a commodity explosives company into a high-tech munitions platform — but management has missed three consecutive guidance targets.

🚨 Where they disagree. PE at 93.4x is above the prior 10Y peak of 46.3x (March 2018). At 83rd percentile of 10-year range and 1.93x the 10Y median. This is a rerating story — the market is pricing the defense-platform thesis. DII selling is notable at this level. HEALTHY_EXPANSION EPS setup (eps growing) but multiples leave no room for guidance slippage. The cycle_is_first_expansion flag is false — this is not a first-cycle expansion from trough.

What is proven. Defense doubling every year revalues a commodity explosives company into a high-tech munitions platform — but management has missed three consecutive guidance targets.

What is not proven yet. Bhargavastra delayed 9 months, 155mm delayed 2 quarters, FY26 defense revenue 12% short — three consecutive misses; FY27 ₹4,500 Cr target requires 70% growth.

Layer 1 read, 27 June 2026 — KEEP. Best-in-class explosives-to-defense compounder, but the stock already prices in growth management keeps failing to deliver on time. Earnings are genuinely strong and accelerating — EPS more than doubled over three years to 60.52 and defense revenue grew 94% on an ₹18,000 Cr order book — so this is real growth, not a hollow re-rating. The problem is price: the PE is at 93x, nearly double its own 10-year median, and the market is implicitly demanding growth the reverse-DCF flags as impossible. And management has missed five of its last seven guidance commitments — Bhargavastra slipped nine months, capex collapsed 66% versus guidance — exactly the execution it needs to justify the multiple.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. If the multiple compresses materially (PE back toward its 48.7x median) on continued earnings growth, OR management delivers two consecutive clean guidance hits (Bhargavastra trials + the ₹4,500 Cr FY27 defense target) — that would re-rate this from a late-cycle priced-in name back toward a P1 mid-expansion story.

Layer 2 read, 27 June 2026 — BENCH. Real earnings engine but priced for flawless execution it keeps missing; peak margins, divergent sector — BENCH. The engine is genuine — per-share earnings 21.82→60.52 and defence +94% YoY — but the P/E of 94 sits in the top decile on margins at the 92nd percentile, so normalizing to mid-cycle margins lifts the normalized P/E to the 93rd percentile [sector_timeline C2/C5]: it is expensive on PEAK earnings, the value-trap mirror, not a cheap trough. The sector verdict is DIVERGENT (conviction 56, WATCH) and the company's 5-of-7 guidance-miss record [C020/C022/C064] undercuts the flawless execution this multiple demands.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. A clean, ON-TIME execution beat that breaks the 5-of-7 miss streak (Bhargavastra delivered to schedule + defence revenue meeting guidance) WHILE the sector qual stream upgrades off NEUTRAL/WATCH — that would justify growing into the multiple and flip BENCH→ADVANCE. Absent that, the peak-margin/peak-multiple stack holds.

The test written in advance. Defense Execution Slippage — Systematic Pattern of Missed Timelines — Defense Execution Slippage — Systematic Pattern of Missed Timelines Q1 FY27 defense revenue (must be ₹1,000+ Cr to track ₹4,500 Cr annual pace) by the next result.

The test written in advance. Commodity Cost Squeeze (Ammonium Nitrate + Raw Materials at 29% YoY Increase) — Commodity Cost Squeeze (Ammonium Nitrate + Raw Materials at 29% YoY Increase) Q1 FY27 OPM vs ammonium nitrate spot price; working capital days (target <100) by the next result.

The test written in advance. Valuation at Full Expansion — PE at 83rd Percentile of 10Y Range — Valuation at Full Expansion — PE at 83rd Percentile of 10Y Range Q1 FY27 defense revenue vs ₹1,000 Cr threshold; PE trajectory as EPS grows by the next result.

What the company does. FY26 closed with revenue +30% YoY to ₹9,838 Cr and PAT +35% to ₹1,737 Cr; defense revenue surged 94% to ₹2,634 Cr (27% of portfolio) with an ₹18,000 Cr defense order book providing multi-year visibility. PE at 93.4x — 83rd percentile of 10-year range and 1.93x the 10Y median of 48.7x — fully valued with zero margin of safety at current price. FY27 guidance of ₹14,000 Cr revenue and ₹4,500 Cr defense is credible given the order book, but three consecutive guidance slippages (Bhargavastra, 155mm, defense revenue target) create an execution credibility discount.

Lever 6 · Order-book wins — BUILDING. Defense revenue nearly doubled in FY26 to ₹2,634 Cr; FY27 target ₹4,500 Cr backed by ₹18,000 Cr order book — the largest single Pinaka series order flowing now. What proves it keeps working: Defense Order Book Conversion (₹18,000 Cr → ₹4,500 Cr FY27 target). It stops working if Q1 FY27 defense revenue (must be ₹1,000+ Cr to track ₹4,500 Cr annual pace).

Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. International revenue ~₹3,800 Cr in FY26 (+32% YoY); West Africa (Sierra Leone launch FY27), Kazakhstan commissioned, Australia opening — 30% FY27 target mostly commodity-price tailwind. What proves it keeps working: International Explosives Expansion (Africa-centric, 32% FY26 growth). It stops working if Q1 FY27 defense revenue (must be ₹1,000+ Cr to track ₹4,500 Cr annual pace).

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. FY26 EBITDA margin 27.95% vs 26.9% prior; management confident 27-28% sustainable as defense (higher-margin) scales to 32%+ of revenue in FY27. What proves it keeps working: Defense Product Mix Margin Expansion (defense + international now 73% of revenue). It stops working if Q1 FY27 defense revenue (must be ₹1,000+ Cr to track ₹4,500 Cr annual pace).

Lever 8 · Demerger or value unlock — BUILDING. 155mm complete round supply within 3-4 months; Bhargavastra trials by CY26 end; medium-caliber commissioned — these products carry higher margins than core explosives. What proves it keeps working: New Defense Product Pipeline (Bhargavastra, 155mm, Medium-Caliber). It stops working if Q1 FY27 defense revenue (must be ₹1,000+ Cr to track ₹4,500 Cr annual pace).

Sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Solar Industries India Ltd reported ₹3,668 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +70.3% year on year. That is the 9th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 21.1% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹9,838 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹11,351 Cr.

Why this happened. The primary thesis engine. Defense went from 18% to 27% of consolidated revenue in a single year. Q4 alone saw ₹1,008 Cr (134% YoY) as Pinaka deliveries accelerated. The ₹18,000 Cr defense order book (₹6,500-7,000 Cr domestic + ₹11,000+ Cr international) provides 3-4 years of delivery visibility. FY27 target of ₹4,500 Cr implies 70% growth from FY26 base — credible if Pinaka supply remains consistent and 155mm comes online. Medium-caliber ammunition (23mm, 30mm, 40mm) and loitering munitions provide the long tail.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹9,838 Cr (+30.5% on the year), capping 10 years at 21.1% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹3,668 Cr, +70.3% year on year — the 9th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +40.4% growth against the decade's 21.1% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +41.7% over the last 4 quarters against +36.7%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +52.9% vs +45.0%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Solar Industries India Ltd's operating margin is 28.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +3.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 19.0% to 28.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. The margin story rests on three pillars: (1) contractual rise-and-fall provisions recovering 60-70% of commodity cost increases; (2) defense and international mix shift (combined 73% in FY26, up from ~55% FY24); (3) operating leverage from new capacity. Employee costs +41% and depreciation +42% in FY26 were fully absorbed. Management explicitly distinguished this cycle from prior commodity stress episodes (50-70% RM increase → 2-3% margin drop historically) — now confident margins hold due to improved mix.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 28.0%, +3.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 19.0%–28.0%, and FY26's 28.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +2.9 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.2 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Solar Industries India Ltd earned ₹666 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +88.7% year on year. It is the 11th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹1,737 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 25.6%. That is 18.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹353 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹666 Cr, +88.7% year on year — the 11th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹1,737 Cr (+34.9%), and the 10-year compound rate is 25.6%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +70.3% and the margin +3.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +51.6% vs revenue +40.4%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 115% of Solar Industries India Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹621 Cr of operating cash against ₹1,737 Cr of profit. After ₹1,552 Cr of capital spending, ₹−931 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹621 Cr against reported profit of ₹1,737 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−931 Cr after ₹1,552 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 115% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 115%: the cash cycle stretched 44 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 5.8× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Solar Industries India Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 152 days in FY26, up from 108 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹3,329 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹9,838 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹27.0 Cr, so roughly ₹4,097 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 69 days, inventory at 130 days — roughly 4.3 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 152 days, looser than FY21's 108.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 130 days to sell; customers pay about 69 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 47 days — netting out to the 152-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹9,838 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹27.0 Cr — so the 152-day loop keeps roughly ₹4,097 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹3,329 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹576 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹731 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Solar Industries India Ltd earns a ROCE of 38% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 18% in FY14. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 17.7% net margin on 0.92× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 38%, recovered from a FY14 trough of 18% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 17.7% net margin × 0.92× asset turns × 1.71× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 27.8% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 8.2% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Solar Industries India Ltd carries ₹1,524 Cr of borrowings against ₹6,277 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.24. Operating profit covers the interest bill 20×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹808 Cr to ₹1,524 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹3,329 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹1,524 Cr against equity of ₹6,277 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.24. Operating profit covers the interest bill 20×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹808 Cr to ₹1,524 Cr while capital spending ran ₹3,329 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 8.2% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 1.2 points of Solar Industries India Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 6.4% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +0.6 points over the same window, to 13.4%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −1.2 points over 8 quarters to 6.4%; Domestic institutions: +0.6 points over 8 quarters to 13.4%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 73.2%.

🚨 Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (−1.2 points), absorbed on the other side by domestic institutions (+0.6 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Solar Industries India Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Solar Industries India Ltd trades at 101.0× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (92nd percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 48.5×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Why this happened. The optionality layer. 155mm fills the gap between current Pinaka ramp and the next leg — company already supplying raw material and intermediates for qualification, first complete rounds within 3-4 months of Q4 FY26. Bhargavastra counter-drone (rare globally) in final trials by CY26 — the 9-month delay from March 2026 original target is a credibility flag but not a thesis killer. Medium-caliber (23mm, 30mm, 40mm) commissioned and supplying for testing with higher margins than explosives core.

Today's P/E of 101.0× is at the pricey end of its own range (92nd percentile), against a long-run median of 48.5× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +38.7% against a +54.8% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +65.6%/yr price move, ~+43.1%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+22.5 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +42.6%/yr price move, ~+27.8%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+14.8 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

The PEG ratio and its quarterly curve, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 8.2% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Solar Industries India Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 38.0% and holding. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

63.5/100 — rank 1 of 4 in Industrial Explosives · 79% evidence confidence

Solar Industries India Ltd scores 63.5 out of 100 against the 4 companies it is compared with in Industrial Explosives, ranking 1. Acceleration candidate, not a confirmed leader: earnings are strong but sector-relative strength is -16.7% and the one-year return is 60.2%. Do not upgrade until sector-relative strength is above zero and another reported period confirms growth.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 29.2 + 22 + 7.3 + 5 = 63.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Solar Industries India Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

🚨 Bhargavastra Field Trial Timeline Slippage · 15 May 2026. In the Nov 2025 call, management specifically committed to completing Bhargavastra field trials by March 2026. The May 2026 call reveals the trials remain incomplete, with the new completion target pushed to end of calendar year 2026 - a delay of approximately 9 months. No specific explanation was provided beyond a general acknowledgement that product development takes longer than expected.

🚨 155mm Shell Commercial Production Target Missed · 15 May 2026. Both prior calls made explicit commitments that commercial production of complete 155mm shells would begin in Q4 FY26 ending March 2026. The May 2026 call reveals the filling facility is still not complete and commercial supply of the complete round is still 3 to 4 months away, confirming the Q4 FY26 target was missed with no explanation provided for the delay.

🚨 FY26 Defence Revenue Guidance Shortfall · 15 May 2026. Management maintained a Rs. 3,000 crore FY26 defence revenue guidance through both prior calls, with the Feb 2026 call still directing towards that target just three months before year-end. The May 2026 call disclosed actual FY26 defence revenue of Rs. 2,634 crores - approximately 12% below the stated guidance - while management presented the result as a record achievement without acknowledging the shortfall or offering any explanation for why the Rs. 3,000 crore target was not achieved.

Capex Guidance Collapse · 4 February 2026. Management drastically slashed FY26 capital expenditure guidance from INR 2,500 crores down to INR 850 crores. In August, they committed to the higher figure for strategic expansion, but now project a figure nearly 66% lower without detailing which specific projects were cancelled or deferred. Earlier call (Aug 2025): “As we have shared in our annual call that we are going to invest INR2,500 crores in this financial year. And in the coming years also, we have a strong strategic program to expand our facilities.” Later call (Feb 2026): “Regarding capex, we spend approximately 700 to 800 crores every year. This year, it might be around 850 crores.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions