Oberoi Realty Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Oberoi Realty Ltd trades at ₹1,741, in a confirmed uptrend and 13 weeks into that stage. That is +0.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 60% of a 52-week range of ₹1,446 to ₹1,934. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 14 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 13 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹1,741 it trades +0.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 60% of its 52-week range (₹1,446–₹1,934).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +622% while the NIFTY 500 moved +259% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 14 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Oberoi Realty Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 22 August 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: Not stated in the research file. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 22 August 2026.

Our read, 22 August 2026. Mumbai luxury developer whose flagship NCR project launched with Rs 80+ billion bookings in Q1 FY27 — confirming the geographic expansion thesis — but Adarsh Nagar approval delays keep the management track record under watch.

From the numbers. The PE multiple has compressed over 40% from its 10-year peak while EPS has grown over 500% from the 2016 base — PE compressing as earnings grow is the right combination. At 25.9x trailing (44th percentile) with…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 13 — above its 200-day line, relative strength falling.

From the research. Mumbai luxury developer whose flagship NCR project launched with Rs 80+ billion bookings in Q1 FY27 — confirming the geographic expansion thesis — but Adarsh Nagar approval delays keep the management track record under…

What is proven. Mumbai luxury developer whose flagship NCR project launched with Rs 80+ billion bookings in Q1 FY27 — confirming the geographic expansion thesis — but Adarsh Nagar approval delays keep the management track record under watch.

What is not proven yet. If 360 North Phase 2 attracts fewer than half the per-sq-ft realization of Phase 1 (suggesting the Phase 1 pricing was unsustainable), or if Adarsh Nagar faces another approval delay pushing the launch beyond FY27, adding a fifth documented slippage — at that point the management credibility discount would need to rise and the FY28 forward earnings case would weaken materially.

🚨 What would change our mind. If 360 North Phase 2 attracts fewer than half the per-sq-ft realization of Phase 1 (suggesting the Phase 1 pricing was unsustainable), or if Adarsh Nagar faces another approval delay pushing the launch beyond FY27, adding a fifth documented slippage — at that point the management credibility discount would need to rise and the FY28 forward earnings case would weaken materially.

Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — KEEP. The one stock here where the earnings really are compounding and the price has not yet followed — and the ₹80 billion Gurugram launch is already sold. Oberoi's first project outside Mumbai, 360 North in Gurugram, launched and sold about 1.4 million square feet with gross bookings above ₹80 billion, every allotment completed and the project's funding already tied up. That money does not hit the profit line at once — under the accounting real-estate uses, it converts to profit as the towers are built — so it is several years of earnings that have already been contracted. Behind it, annual profit has gone ₹2,226 crore to ₹2,507 crore and trailing profit is now ₹2,630 crore, up 27.6%, with the June quarter earning ₹544 crore on ₹1,301 crore of sales at a 56% operating margin — yet the shares trade at 25.9 times earnings, below their own…

What would change Layer 1’s mind. Sharpened from the timeline's own line: if 360 North Phase 2 is offered at a realisation materially below Phase 1 — the timeline's forward milestone puts the test at ₹20,000 per square foot of carpet area — OR Adarsh Nagar fails to obtain its approval by the end of September 2026, making the Q3 FY27 launch physically impossible and adding a fifth documented slippage, then the pipeline that justifies paying 25.9x stops being contracted earnings and becomes a promise, and this drops to P2. A…

Layer 2 read, 22 August 2026 — ADVANCE. Sold Gurugram bookings now have a supply-tightening sector behind them. Oberoi has already secured more than Rs 80 billion of Gurugram bookings, completed every allotment, and closed the funding. The external check adds a strong supply-side tailwind: institutions_read=ABSENT and capex_read=SUPPLY_WITHDRAWAL produce IDEAL_TROUGH_SETUP, while the broad Tier-1 demand warning remains an L3 check rather than a veto.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. A verified Phase 2 sales disclosure showing per-square-foot realization below half of Phase 1 would overturn ADVANCE by proving the first Gurugram launch exhausted a thin buyer pool.

Layer 3 read, 22 August 2026 — DEPLOY. Deploy only a starter: sold Gurugram bookings are strong, but the new court case and pledge cap conviction. 360 North has gross bookings above Rs 80 billion and every allocation is complete, giving the P1 contracted earnings rather than a demand promise. L3 nevertheless found a new Rs 500 crore FSI suit that the Timeline missed, while a third-party source reports 75.33% of promoter shares pledged and the local database has no pledge field to verify it. Those findings turn a normal DEPLOY into a 1.5% starter under management WATCHLIST.

What would change Layer 3’s mind. An adverse order that crystallizes the Rs 500 crore FSI claim, any pledge increase above 75.33%, or another Adarsh Nagar delay beyond FY27 would flip the 1.5% DEPLOY to DROP.

CIO read, 22 August 2026 — BENCH. NOT ADMITTED (incoming, benched) · forward-asymmetry 58/100 · CONTESTED. CONTEST — I judge deliverable EPS growth at 17%, only 1 point above the model's 16% requirement. More than Rs 80 billion of Gurugram bookings are already sold and the rating is at the 44th percentile, but repeated launch delays and the active Rs 500 crore suit keep this from a clear admit.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: PE at 44th percentile — appears fairly valued relative to history The research reads it further: Normalized PE is 27.5 at the 49th percentile (versus trailing 44th percentile), confirming the FAIRLY_PRICED verdict. OPM at 76th percentile of its own 10-year history means normalized margins reduce PE only modestly — the fair-value reading is robust to margin normalization.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: FY26 OCF/PAT 0.55 — below the 0.8 threshold, suggests weak cash conversion The research reads it further: The EPC/milestone billing model (real estate) structurally lags cash behind booked profit. The 3-year aggregate of 0.95 shows the cycle-average is acceptable. FY26 divergence is expected in years with large working-capital builds from new project bookings. The 360 North booking wave will further compress OCF/PAT in FY27 before it recovers.

Sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Oberoi Realty Ltd reported ₹1,301 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +31.7% year on year. That is the 4th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 15.6% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹6,009 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹6,323 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹6,009 Cr (+13.7% on the year), capping 10 years at 15.6% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹1,301 Cr, +31.7% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +31.1% growth against the decade's 15.6% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +29.9% over the last 4 quarters against +12.6%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +27.6% vs +9.6%/yr — accelerating.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹1,750 Cr and profit ₹703 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹1,301 Cr and profit ₹544 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Oberoi Realty Ltd's operating margin is 56.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +3.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 44.0% to 59.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 56.0%, +3.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 44.0%–59.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +3.7 pp year on year while gross margin went +12.5 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹1,750 Cr and profit ₹703 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹1,301 Cr and profit ₹544 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Oberoi Realty Ltd earned ₹544 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +29.2% year on year. It is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹2,507 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 19.1%. That is 41.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹421 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹544 Cr, +29.2% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹2,507 Cr (+12.6%), and the 10-year compound rate is 19.1%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +31.7% and the margin +3.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +30.4% vs revenue +31.1%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹1,750 Cr and profit ₹703 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹1,301 Cr and profit ₹544 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 95% of Oberoi Realty Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹1,380 Cr of operating cash against ₹2,507 Cr of profit. After ₹294 Cr of capital spending, ₹1,086 Cr was left as free cash.

Why this happened. Sky City Mall crossed 82% occupancy after approximately one year of operations per, up from 56% in January 2026 per. Management expects near-100% by end of FY27. Commerz I, II, III, and Oberoi Mall continued near 100% occupancy per. Ritz Carlton is 80-90% interior complete and expected to open by end of FY27 per. The RLDA Bandra 2 million sq ft commercial asset shifts to a strata sale model per, expected to unlock a large cash conversion event within FY27.

FY26: operating cash of ₹1,380 Cr against reported profit of ₹2,507 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹1,086 Cr after ₹294 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 95% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 95%: the cash cycle tightened 5,840 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 6.5× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Oberoi Realty Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 20 days in FY26, down from 5,860 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹1,739 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹6,009 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹16.5 Cr, so roughly ₹329 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

Why this happened. 360 North Phase 1 sold 1.4 million sq ft with gross bookings above Rs 80 billion and all allotments completed, validating the NCR entry thesis per and. Financial closure is complete. A Phase 2 offering on the remaining 1.2 million sq ft is planned for next year per. The NCR business development pipeline now spans Gurugram and Noida, targeting large parcels at price segments comparable to Thane. If Phase 2 sustains similar velocity, the NCR contribution to forward PAT is material.

FY26: debtors at 20 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 20 days, tighter than FY21's 5,860.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹6,009 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹16.5 Cr — so the 20-day loop keeps roughly ₹329 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹1,739 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹267 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹1,752 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Oberoi Realty Ltd earns a ROCE of 17% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 9% in FY17. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +2.9 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 41.7% net margin on 0.24× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 17%, recovered from a FY17 trough of 9% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 41.7% net margin × 0.24× asset turns × 1.41× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 14.1% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 14.9% − 12.0% = a +2.9 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Oberoi Realty Ltd carries total debt of ₹2,825 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹17,922 Cr as of Jun 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.16 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.27 in FY22 to 0.16 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Why this happened. Interest expense has trended down from Rs 80 cr per quarter (Q2 FY25) to Rs 52 cr in Q1 FY27 per. With RLDA back-ended payments and most new land parcels revenue-linked per, the company is not adding leverage to fund the pipeline. Promoter holding stable at 67.71% per — no dilution.

Jun 26: total debt of ₹2,825 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹17,922 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.16. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.27 (FY22) to 0.16 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 2.9 points of Oberoi Realty Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 15.1% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +2.5 points over the same window, to 14.8%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −2.9 points over 8 quarters to 15.1%; Domestic institutions: +2.5 points over 8 quarters to 14.8%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 67.7%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −2.9 points against domestic institutions +2.5 points over 8 quarters, with promoters holding steady — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Oberoi Realty Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Oberoi Realty Ltd trades at 23.9× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 32% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 27.4×, measured across 10.6 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 23.9× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 32% of the time, against a long-run median of 27.4× measured over 10.6 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +12.7% against a +8.7% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +17.6%/yr price move, ~+27.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−9.7 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +19.1%/yr price move, ~+19.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−0.1 pp from the multiple (roughly flat). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 24 August 2026 price, Oberoi Realty Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 16.0% a year. Profit itself has compounded 19.1% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 23.9× P/E, the 32nd percentile of its own 11-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is low against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is close to what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 24 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Oberoi Realty Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −5.9% at the trough to +27.6%, a 3-quarter improving streak, ROCE holding at 18.4%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

4-Factor Sector Score

68.9/100 — rank 1 of 7 in Realty - Regional · 100% evidence confidence

Oberoi Realty Ltd scores 68.9 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in Realty - Regional, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 28.5 + 17.2 + 13.6 + 9.6 = 68.9. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Oberoi Realty Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

🚨 360 North Launch Missed Prior Schedule · 20 July 2026. In July 2025, management said the NCR project would launch in Q4 FY26. In July 2026, management said 360 North had been intended for Q1 FY27 but missed that target by a few days, indicating a later launch than the prior call's schedule without explaining why the timeline changed.

Adarsh Nagar Launch Timeline Shifted · 20 July 2026. In July 2025, management left open a possible Q4 FY26 launch for Adarsh Nagar, albeit with an explicit caveat. In July 2026, management was only hoping for a Q3 FY27 launch, representing a multiple-quarter shift from the earlier window that was not explained beyond general scheduling uncertainty.

360 North Gurgaon Approval Status Contradiction · 11 May 2026. In the Jul 2025 call, management declared that the entire approval process for 360 North was complete and all permissions were in place, strongly suggesting an imminent Q3 or Q4 FY26 launch. However, in the May 2026 call, management stated they were still actively applying for approvals for 360 North, nearly 10 months after approvals were said to be fully secured. No explanation was offered for why approvals deemed complete in Jul 2025 required fresh applications by May 2026.

🚨 Sky City Mall 100% Occupancy Commitment Missed · 11 May 2026. In the Jul 2025 call, management confidently committed to achieving 100% occupancy at Sky City Mall within FY26 (by March 2026). The May 2026 call revealed the mall had only reached 72% occupancy in its first year, with management now targeting 100% only by March 2027 - a one-year slippage on a stated commitment. No explanation was provided for what drove this significant shortfall against the committed timeline.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions