NRB Bearings Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

NRB Bearings Ltd trades at ₹459, in a confirmed uptrend and 13 weeks into that stage. That is +34.1% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 99% of a 52-week range of ₹228 to ₹462. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 24 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 13 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹459 it trades +34.1% versus its 200-day average and sits at 99% of its 52-week range (₹228–₹462).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +297% while the NIFTY 500 moved +278% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 24 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

NRB Bearings Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 17 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: NEAR_TROUGH_TO_EARLY_EXPANSION. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 19 July 2026.

Our read, 17 May 2026. A precision-engineered auto-components maker quietly becoming an industrial-aerospace platform — the PAT re-rating has started but the capex that compounds it is yet to commission.

From the numbers. PE at 33rd percentile of 10Y range. Earnings-driven compression: PE contracted from Dec 2020 peak of 48.8x as EPS recovered. Current cycle entered contraction from Jun 2024 peak of 29.2x. With EBITDA margin expansion…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 13 — above its 200-day line, relative strength falling.

From the research. A precision-engineered auto-components maker quietly becoming an industrial-aerospace platform — the PAT re-rating has started but the capex that compounds it is yet to commission.

🚨 Where they disagree. PE at 33rd percentile of 10Y range. Earnings-driven compression: PE contracted from Dec 2020 peak of 48.8x as EPS recovered. Current cycle entered contraction from Jun 2024 peak of 29.2x. With EBITDA margin expansion structural and capex commissioning imminent, the conditions for the next expansion phase are building. FII_BUYING signal from pe_pb_cycle data, though shareholder data shows FII holding declining — requires Q1 FY27 data to resolve divergence.

What is proven. A precision-engineered auto-components maker quietly becoming an industrial-aerospace platform — the PAT re-rating has started but the capex that compounds it is yet to commission.

What is not proven yet. Industrial segment share cited as 8-10% (Feb 2026), 14-15% (Nov 2025 and May 2026), and 15% (Nov 2025 H1) — five documented inconsistencies across 3 calls raise fundamental questions about reporting accuracy.

Layer 1 read, 19 July 2026 — KEEP. Auto-components maker turning into an industrial/aerospace platform — the compounding capex leg is still ahead. FY26 PAT rose 77% on structural, repeatable cost levers (solar, automation, vendor renegotiation) rather than one-offs, and net profit is expanding and accelerating. The next leg — ₹240cr brownfield capex commissioning from June-July 2026 and an industrial+aerospace mix climbing from 14-15% toward 20-25% with Siemens/HAL wins — has not yet hit the P&L. The 72.5th-percentile PE looks elevated but the multiple actually compressed as EPS rose, so this is a de-rating compounder mid-expansion, not a spent one.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. A slip in the June-July 2026 capex commissioning combined with the international-recovery guide (10-14% FY27) missing in the Q1 FY27 print would remove the forward leg and turn the elevated PE into genuine lateness — flipping this toward P2/exit review.

Layer 2 read, 19 July 2026 — BENCH. Held name is extended into a late-cycle capacity flood, its multiple is elevated (not cheap), and its +78% profit jump is a one-off base effect. The margin story is real — operating margin improved to 19.5% on solar/automation cost levers — but every external stress check pushes back on paying up here. The whole sector is flooding in capacity (capex up 53%) just as institutions crowd in, the shares are extended and the PE sits at the 77th percentile / 1.31x its own median (live snapshot, contradicting a stale timeline claim of 'near-trough'), and the headline +78% profit growth is mostly a base effect because last year's profit was cut by a Rs55cr one-time settlement. Nothing here BREAKS the thesis, so it stays held — but it belongs in front of the CIO for a boom/extension read, not admitted as fresh strength.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. A clean quarter (Q1 FY27) showing PAT growth on a NON-distorted base (ex the Rs55cr one-off) AND the industrial/aerospace mix genuinely stepping toward 20-25% with the Rs240cr capex commissioning on time (June-July 2026) — proving the forward leg is delivering, not just the base-effect optics — would move BENCH->ADVANCE. Conversely, a capex slip or the Q4 gross-margin dip persisting would harden toward a CIO damage/boom exit.

The test written in advance. Management disclosure inconsistency — industrial mix data contradictions across calls — Management disclosure inconsistency — industrial mix data contradictions across calls Q1 FY27 concall: consistent industrial segment revenue share disclosure + capex phasing explanation by the next result.

The test written in advance. Capex commissioning slip (June-July 2026 target) — Capex commissioning slip (June-July 2026 target) Q1 FY27 results: specific commissioning timeline update; new capacity contribution to revenues by the next result.

The test written in advance. International revenue recovery misses 10-14% FY27 guide — International revenue recovery misses 10-14% FY27 guide Q1 FY27 international revenue absolute and YoY vs FY26 Q1 baseline by the next result.

What the company does. FY26 delivered revenue +11%, EBITDA +19%, PAT +77% — all structural (solar cost savings, automation, vendor renegotiation, operating leverage), not one-off. Bearing content per vehicle is EV-agnostic; pricing model defends 18-21% EBITDA margin across ICE/hybrid/EV; the structural moat is intact through the powertrain transition. Industrial + aerospace now at 14-15% of revenues, targeting 20-25% in 3-4 years; Mahant Toolroom (defense/aerospace) and Unitec JV (industrial cylindrical roller bearings) add the next leg, with ₹240 Cr committed capex commissioning June-July 2026 onward.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. FY26 EBITDA +19% on revenue +11% — textbook operating leverage; drivers are solar energy capex, automation, yield improvements, vendor renegotiation — all structural and recurring. What proves it keeps working: Structural Operating Leverage (solar + automation + vendor renegotiation). It stops working if Q1 FY27 concall: consistent industrial segment revenue share disclosure + capex phasing explanation.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. Industrial now 14-15% of revenues, targeting 20-25% in 3-4 years; Unitec JV (cylindrical roller bearings) and Mahant Toolroom (defense/aerospace) are the platforms; new wins include Siemens and HAL. What proves it keeps working: Industrial + Aerospace Segment Diversification (14-15% → 20-25%). It stops working if Q1 FY27 concall: consistent industrial segment revenue share disclosure + capex phasing explanation.

Lever 6 · Order-book wins — BUILDING. ₹240 Cr committed capex (₹200 Cr + ₹40 Cr land); machinery arrivals underway; major commissioning June-July 2026 through Q1 FY28; targets ~₹150 Cr incremental revenue capacity. What proves it keeps working: Capex Commissioning (₹240 Cr brownfield; June-July 2026 start). It stops working if Q1 FY27 concall: consistent industrial segment revenue share disclosure + capex phasing explanation.

Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. FY26 international growth muted at 4% due to Middle East disruptions and logistics challenges; management guided 10-14% rebound in FY27 driven by platform transitions and RFQ pipeline conversion. What proves it keeps working: International Business Recovery (4% FY26 → 10-14% FY27 guide). It stops working if Q1 FY27 concall: consistent industrial segment revenue share disclosure + capex phasing explanation.

Sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

NRB Bearings Ltd reported ₹370 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +19.4% year on year. That is the 9th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 7.1% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,335 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,395 Cr.

Why this happened. The capex cycle is the near-term catalyst watch. Management confirmed machinery orders placed, arrivals underway, with major commissioning starting June-July 2026 continuing through FY27 and into Q1 FY28. Effective utilization is well above the reported 85% (adjusted for maintenance, shift patterns, changeovers) — the commissioning unlocks genuine additional throughput. Expected incremental revenue capacity of ~₹150 Cr from the ₹200 Cr equipment tranche. Commissioning slippage pushes the inflection point into FY28.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,335 Cr (+11.3% on the year), capping 10 years at 7.1% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹370 Cr, +19.4% year on year — the 9th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +14.4% growth against the decade's 7.1% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +14.3% over the last 4 quarters against +12.1%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +66.7% vs −22.4%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

NRB Bearings Ltd's operating margin is 17.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 11.0% to 20.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. Management explicitly called out four structural margin drivers: solar energy adoption reducing power and fuel costs, increased automation reducing labor dependence, continuous yield improvements, and comprehensive vendor cost renegotiation across materials, components, logistics, and insurance. EBITDA margin expanded from 18.3% to 19.5% (+120bps). PAT grew 77% on operating leverage compounded by a low base from Q4 FY25 one-off settlement charge. With FY27 capex brownfield commissioning starting June-July 2026, utilization improvement should extend operating leverage further.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 17.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 11.0%–20.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.7 pp year on year while gross margin went −1.6 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

NRB Bearings Ltd earned ₹38.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +15.2% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹146 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 13.0%. That is 10.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹33.0 Cr. 1 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Jun 26 profit was ₹38.0 Cr, +15.2% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹146 Cr (+78.0%), and the 10-year compound rate is 13.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +19.4% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +20.3% vs revenue +14.4%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 94% of NRB Bearings Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹241 Cr of operating cash against ₹146 Cr of profit. After ₹104 Cr of capital spending, ₹137 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹241 Cr against reported profit of ₹146 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹137 Cr after ₹104 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 94% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 94%: the cash cycle stretched 66 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 1.6× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

NRB Bearings Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 281 days in FY26, up from 215 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹233 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹1,335 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹3.7 Cr, so roughly ₹1,028 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 67 days, inventory at 302 days — roughly 9.9 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 281 days, looser than FY21's 215.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 302 days to sell; customers pay about 67 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 88 days — netting out to the 281-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹1,335 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹3.7 Cr — so the 281-day loop keeps roughly ₹1,028 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹233 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹148 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹43.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

NRB Bearings Ltd earns a ROCE of 18% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 9% in FY20. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +0.9 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 10.9% net margin on 0.98× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 18%, recovered from a FY20 trough of 9% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 10.9% net margin × 0.98× asset turns × 1.41× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 15.1% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 12.9% − 12.0% = a +0.9 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

NRB Bearings Ltd carries total debt of ₹154 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹983 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.16 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.50 in FY22 to 0.16 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹154 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹983 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.16. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.50 (FY22) to 0.16 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 6.0 points of NRB Bearings Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 44.7% of the company. Foreign institutions moved +5.2 points over the same window, to 18.9%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −6.0 points over 8 quarters to 44.7%; Foreign institutions: +5.2 points over 8 quarters to 18.9%; Domestic institutions: −3.7 points over 8 quarters to 13.8%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions +5.2 points against domestic institutions −3.7 points over 8 quarters, with promoters −6.0 points — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

NRB Bearings Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

NRB Bearings Ltd trades at 29.8× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (82nd percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 23.0×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 29.8× is at the pricey end of its own range (82nd percentile), against a long-run median of 23.0× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +79.6% against a +62.6% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +29.6%/yr price move, ~+12.0%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+17.6 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +14.9%/yr price move, ~+13.5%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+1.4 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Improving Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

NRB Bearings Ltd reads as improving on its fundamental arc. Improving — profit growth bottomed 4 quarters ago at −63.9% and has held its recovery at +66.7%, ROCE lifting at 20.7%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: a sustained climb off the trough is the setup this page is built to catch — the question moves to what you pay for it.

4-Factor Sector Score

55.5/100 — rank 3 of 7 in Bearings · 100% evidence confidence

NRB Bearings Ltd scores 55.5 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in Bearings, ranking 3. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 20.3 + 10.5 + 4.7 + 20 = 55.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What NRB Bearings Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Industrial Segment Revenue Mix - Inconsistent Data Across Consecutive Calls · 11 May 2026. In the Feb 2026 call, management cited the industrial segment at roughly 8% to 10% of revenue and growing toward 11% to 12%, but the May 2026 full-year FY26 call described the same segment as approximately 14% to 15%. This disconnect is further compounded by the Nov 2025 call having already reported industrial at 15% for H1 FY26, making the Q3 FY26 figure of 8% to 10% anomalous relative to both the prior and subsequent reporting periods. With industrial diversification as a central investment thesis for NRB, management has not explained the sharp intra-year swings in this metric across three consecutive calls.

🚨 Total Capex Programme - Announced Second Phase Goes Missing · 11 May 2026. In the Nov 2025 call, management described a total capex roadmap of INR 500 crores comprising the Board-approved INR 200 crores and an additional INR 250 to INR 300 crores to be deployed over five years, explicitly linking this plan to achieving the INR 2,500 crore revenue target. By the May 2026 call, management described the total capex announcement as INR 240 crores with no reference to the additional second phase and no explanation for where the planned INR 250 to INR 300 crore follow-on tranche stands. The revenue target was simultaneously described as increasingly concrete, creating an unaddressed analytical gap between the stated growth goal and the disclosed capital plan.

Industrial Revenue Share Reset · 13 February 2026. In the November 2025 call, management stated that the industrial segment contributed 15% of consolidated revenue and was moving toward a 20% share. However, in the February 2026 call, the baseline for this segment was revised downward to 8-10%, with management stating they are now aiming to reach only 11-12%, despite claiming the segment is growing faster. Earlier call (Nov 2025): “On consolidated level, 31% was two, three-wheelers, 15% was industrial... Our industrial segment is now moving closer and closer to the 20% mark as well.” Later call (Feb 2026): “industrial is going faster, but out of the total pie, it is roughly been 8 to 10% and now starting to move faster to 11 12.”

Inventory Level Baseline Contradiction · 13 February 2026. Management acknowledged in the November 2025 call that inventory levels had reached approximately 350 days and defended these high levels as necessary for customer stickiness. In the February 2026 call, management claimed the previous year's high was only 120 to 130 days, creating a fundamental inconsistency in historical operational data and reporting accuracy. Earlier call (Nov 2025): “Will we have more than our competition? Yes. [...] Will we have as much inventory as we have today? No. It will come down step by step, but it will not come down to the level of our competitors.” Later call (Feb 2026): “Our inventory is that we have started in 120 to 130 days that you noticed last year. Now, we are down to 110 days.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions