Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd trades at ₹672, in a confirmed uptrend and 8 weeks into that stage. That is +4.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 55% of a 52-week range of ₹483 to ₹829. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (1 week and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 8 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹672 it trades +4.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 55% of its 52-week range (₹483–₹829).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +435% while the NIFTY 500 moved +276% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (1 week and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-24) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd trades at 35.1× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (70th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 31.6×, measured across 9.9 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 35.1× is at the pricey end of its own range (70th percentile), against a long-run median of 31.6× measured over 9.9 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +18.0% against a −17.2% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +5.0%/yr price move, ~−0.5%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+5.5 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +12.5%/yr price move, ~+9.0%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+3.5 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Topping out Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd reads as topping out on its fundamental arc. Topping out — revenue and profit growth have decelerated hard (revenue growth +51.9% at its peak → +10.6% latest) while ROCE still reads 19.4%. The read is built from 9 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: decelerating from a peak is where good stories quietly end — the multiple usually notices late.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

67.0/100 — rank 1 of 6 in Packaging - FMCG/Consumers · 90% evidence confidence

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd scores 67.0 out of 100 against the 6 companies it is compared with in Packaging - FMCG/Consumers, ranking 1. Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 26.5 + 16.9 + 11.1 + 12.5 = 67. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd reported ₹178 Cr of revenue in the Mar 22 quarter, +10.6% year on year. That is the 7th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 6 years it has compounded at 15.4% a year. The last full year, FY22, came in at ₹631 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹632 Cr.

FY22 revenue came in at ₹631 Cr (+31.7% on the year), capping 6 years at 15.4% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 22) printed ₹178 Cr, +10.6% year on year — the 7th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +42.7% growth against the decade's 15.4% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +31.9% over the last 4 quarters against +20.1%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +33.3% vs +31.5%/yr — stabilising.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd's operating margin is 18.0% in the Mar 22 quarter, −2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 17.0% to 20.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 18.0%, −2.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 17.0%–20.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −2.0 pp year on year while gross margin went −4.2 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd earned ₹17.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 22 quarter, −5.6% year on year. Full-year FY22 profit was ₹64.0 Cr. The 6-year compound rate is 17.8%. That is 9.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹18.0 Cr.

Mar 22 profit was ₹17.0 Cr, −5.6% year on year. On the full year, FY22 printed ₹64.0 Cr (+33.3%), and the 6-year compound rate is 17.8%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +10.6% and the margin −2.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +136.5% vs revenue +42.7%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 83% of Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY22 that was ₹2.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹64.0 Cr of profit. After ₹52.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹−50.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY22: operating cash of ₹2.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹64.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−50.0 Cr after ₹52.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 83% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 83%: the cash cycle stretched 31 days between FY17 and FY22 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 2.0× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 159 days in FY22, up from 128 days in FY17. Capital spending ran ₹137 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY22 sales of ₹631 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹1.7 Cr, so roughly ₹275 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY22: debtors at 83 days, inventory at 108 days — roughly 3.6 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 159 days, looser than FY17's 128.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 108 days to sell; customers pay about 83 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 32 days — netting out to the 159-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY22 sales of ₹631 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹1.7 Cr — so the 159-day loop keeps roughly ₹275 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹137 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹67.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹15.0 Cr (FY22) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd earns a ROCE of 22% in FY22. That is up from a trough of 19% in FY19. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −2.2 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 10.1% net margin on 1.10× asset turns.

FY22 ROCE is 22%, recovered from a FY19 trough of 19% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY22): 10.1% net margin × 1.10× asset turns × 1.26× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 14.0% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 9.8% − 12.0% = a −2.2 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd carries total debt of ₹220 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹690 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.32. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.10 in FY22 to 0.32 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹220 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹690 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.32. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.10 (FY22) to 0.32 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 6.1 points of Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 8.3% of the company. Domestic institutions moved −0.9 points over the same window, to 21.8%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −6.1 points over 8 quarters to 8.3%; Domestic institutions: −0.9 points over 8 quarters to 21.8%; Promoters: +0.5 points over 8 quarters to 33.2%.

🚨 Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (−6.1 points), alongside domestic institutions (−0.9 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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