Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd trades at ₹165, in a confirmed uptrend and 6 weeks into that stage. That is −0.1% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 38% of a 52-week range of ₹139 to ₹207. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 6 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 6 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹165 it trades −0.1% versus its 200-day average and sits at 38% of its 52-week range (₹139–₹207).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.6 years the stock moved +199% while the NIFTY 500 moved +268% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 6 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 22 August 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: MID_CONTRACTION. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 22 August 2026.

Our read, 22 August 2026. Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd is transitioning from a cyclical pure-play refiner into an integrated downstream marketer by expanding its retail network toward 500 outlets and de-risking its capital structure via sustained debt reduction to 0.63x D/E, while maintaining 120% nameplate capacity utilization.

What is proven. Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd is transitioning from a cyclical pure-play refiner into an integrated downstream marketer by expanding its retail network toward 500 outlets and de-risking its capital structure via sustained debt reduction to 0.63x D/E, while maintaining 120% nameplate capacity utilization.

What is not proven yet. A sustained collapse in benchmark Singapore gross refining margins below $2.50 per barrel combined with retail outlet additions stalling below 20 units annually and the debt-to-equity ratio expanding back above 0.90x would invalidate the structural downstream transformation and expose the business to pure commodity cyclical downside.

🚨 What would change our mind. A sustained collapse in benchmark Singapore gross refining margins below $2.50 per barrel combined with retail outlet additions stalling below 20 units annually and the debt-to-equity ratio expanding back above 0.90x would invalidate the structural downstream transformation and expose the business to pure commodity cyclical downside.

🚨 Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — DROP. The blowout June quarter was other income and low tax — actual refining profit fell a second straight quarter. MRPL reported revenue of Rs 38,254 Cr and profit of Rs 946 Cr in June 2026, which looks like a dramatic recovery. It is not: operating profit — what the refinery actually earned from refining — fell from Rs 2,785 Cr in December to Rs 1,781 Cr in March to Rs 1,318 Cr in June, and margin collapsed from 11% to 3.4%. The profit came from Rs 574 Cr of other income, which is 46% of the pre-tax figure and about thirteen times the Rs 45 Cr this company normally books, plus a tax charge of 24% instead of the usual 35%. Put both back to normal and the quarter earns about Rs 2.70 a share instead of Rs 5.40. Nobody has explained any of it, because the last earnings call was 19 January 2026 — two…

What would change Layer 1’s mind. The Timeline's break condition is Singapore refining margins below $2.50 a barrel with retail additions stalling under 20 outlets a year and debt-to-equity back above 0.90x. Sharpened to this verdict: if the September 2026 quarter shows OPERATING profit back above Rs 2,000 Cr on a normal Rs 45 Cr of other income and a 35% tax rate — that is, the refining business itself re-accelerating rather than the below-the-line lines doing the work — my rank-down is wrong and this becomes P1. Conversely, a…

The test written in advance. Global Refining Margin and Product Crack Spread Volatility — Global Refining Margin and Product Crack Spread Volatility Singapore benchmark GRM falling below $3.00 per barrel or HSD cracks dropping below $10 per barrel. by the next result.

The test written in advance. Feedstock Sourcing Adjustments Post-Russian Crude Halt — Feedstock Sourcing Adjustments Post-Russian Crude Halt Heavy-to-light crude price differentials narrowing below $2.00 per barrel. by the next result.

What the company does. Operating a 15 MMTPA complex refining asset at 120% utilization delivers unit cost efficiencies and an 82% to 83% distillate yield across three flexible crude distillation trains. Expanding downstream retail fuel marketing toward 500 outlets within 3 years captures Rs 3 per litre retail margins and moderates dependence on volatile export crack spreads. Generating Rs 16,512 Cr in cumulative free cash flow over 5 years has funded Rs 8,721 Cr of debt retirement, placing the balance sheet on stable footing at a fair mid-cycle multiple.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: A trailing PE of 11.1 in the 53rd percentile appears moderately priced relative to historical refinery multiples. The research reads it further: Underlying earnings are close to mid-cycle with normalized PE at 12.8 (55th percentile), confirming that trailing valuation reflects fair mid-cycle pricing rather than an optical peak-margin trap.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: Net profit of Rs 946 Cr indicates positive earnings momentum. The research reads it further: Operating profit was Rs 1,318 Cr with OPM at 3.4% (36th percentile); net profit was significantly elevated by non-operating other income of Rs 574 Cr (46% of PBT).

Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. Transitioning fuel volumes from wholesale transfers into retail stations captures Rs 3 per litre marketing margins and reduces export crack volatility. What proves it keeps working: Downstream Retail Marketing Network Expansion. It stops working if Outlet additions fall below 40 units per year or throughput per outlet drops below 100 kL per month.

Sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd reported ₹38,254 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +120.4% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 8.4% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹88,667 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,09,565 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹88,667 Cr (−6.4% on the year), capping 10 years at 8.4% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹38,254 Cr, +120.4% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +30.4% growth against the decade's 8.4% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +23.4% over the last 4 quarters against +8.8%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹23,950 Cr and profit ₹117 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹38,254 Cr and profit ₹946 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd's operating margin is 3.4% in the Jun 26 quarter, +2.4 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −6.0% to 11.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. MRPL generated Rs 22,320 Cr of operating cash flow over the past five fiscal years, directing Rs 8,721 Cr toward net debt reduction. Gross debt fell from Rs 13,608 Cr in Q1 FY26 to Rs 9,290 Cr in Q3 FY26, bringing debt-to-equity down to 0.63x. With Rs 3,260 Cr of NCDs not maturing until 2028 and $500 million in ECB loans amortizing smoothly, reduced financial leverage protects net profitability during refining margin downturns.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 3.4%, +2.4 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −6.0%–11.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +2.4 pp year on year while gross margin went +1.1 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹23,950 Cr and profit ₹117 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹38,254 Cr and profit ₹946 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd earned ₹946 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹1,925 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 14.3%. That is 2.5% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost ₹271 Cr. 2 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Jun 26 profit was ₹946 Cr, null year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹1,925 Cr (+3,337.5%), and the 10-year compound rate is 14.3%.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹23,950 Cr and profit ₹117 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹38,254 Cr and profit ₹946 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 205% of Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹2,531 Cr of operating cash against ₹1,925 Cr of profit. After ₹2,044 Cr of capital spending, ₹487 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹2,531 Cr against reported profit of ₹1,925 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹487 Cr after ₹2,044 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 205% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 205%: the cash cycle tightened 26 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 41 days in FY26, down from 67 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹4,601 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹88,667 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹243 Cr, so roughly ₹9,960 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

Why this happened. MRPL has expanded its retail network to 200 operational outlets and is targeting 250 outlets by FY26 year-end, 500 within three years, and 1,000 across five years. Currently, retail represents only 1.5% to 2.0% of total refinery volumes. Because retail margins contribute approximately Rs 3 per litre on petrol and diesel over and above refining realizations, each incremental retail outlet adds captive, predictable cash flow that buffers against international product crack cycles.

FY26: debtors at 25 days, inventory at 67 days — roughly 2.2 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 41 days, tighter than FY21's 67.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 67 days to sell; customers pay about 25 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 52 days — netting out to the 41-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹88,667 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹243 Cr — so the 41-day loop keeps roughly ₹9,960 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹4,601 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹4,124 Cr of depreciation — building somewhat ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹897 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd earns a ROCE of 18% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −16% in FY20. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +1.2 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 2.2% net margin on 1.99× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 18%, recovered from a FY20 trough of −16% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 2.2% net margin × 1.99× asset turns × 3.13× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 13.7% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 13.2% − 12.0% = a +1.2 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd carries total debt of ₹15,341 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹14,197 Cr as of Jun 26, a debt-to-equity of 1.08. On the annual view that ratio went from 2.96 in FY22 to 1.08 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Why this happened. The refinery achieved record crude throughput of 18 MMT in FY25 (120% of nameplate capacity) and processed 4.7 MMT in Q3 FY26. Operating three independent crude trains provides operational maintenance flexibility, while the fully operational desalination plant prevents dry-season water constraints. Energy efficiency improvements, marked by an MBON of 67 and fuel and loss reduction toward 10.06%, translate directly into higher net cash conversion per processed barrel.

Jun 26: total debt of ₹15,341 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹14,197 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 1.08. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 2.96 (FY22) to 1.08 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions cut 1.1 points of Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 0.4% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −0.1 points over the same window, to 2.2%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: −1.1 points over 8 quarters to 0.4%; Foreign institutions: −0.1 points over 8 quarters to 2.2%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 88.6%.

🚨 Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (−1.1 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd trades at 10.4× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (50th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 10.4×, measured across 10.1 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 10.4× is mid-range by its own standards (50th percentile), against a long-run median of 10.4× measured over 10.1 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +3,331.3% against a +29.2% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 10y, of the +6.4%/yr price move, ~+12.4%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−6.0 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 26 August 2026 price, Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 2.7% a year. Profit itself has compounded 14.3% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 10.4× P/E, the 50th percentile of its own 10-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is unremarkable against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 26 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 25 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Improving Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd reads as improving on its fundamental arc. Improving — profit growth bottomed 3 quarters ago at −98.4% and has held its recovery at +3335.7%, ROCE holding at 11.7%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: a sustained climb off the trough is the setup this page is built to catch — the question moves to what you pay for it.

4-Factor Sector Score

55.6/100 — rank 3 of 7 in Refineries · 91% evidence confidence

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd scores 55.6 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in Refineries, ranking 3. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 23.7 + 9.2 + 12.2 + 10.5 = 55.6. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Russian Crude Sourcing Reversal · 19 January 2026. In the October call, management expressed confidence that Russian crude sourcing was 'business as usual' and would continue, downplaying risks of disruption. However, in the January call, they revealed a complete halt to Russian imports, contradicting the prior assurance of continuity and strategy. Earlier call (Oct 2025): “For us, it is business as usual with respect to sourcing, because we are sourcing those Russian barrels that is available today... We are confident that it will continue in the near future.” Later call (Jan 2026): “We are in strict compliance with all sanctions in place, and currently, no Russian crude is being imported... Since Russian crude is no longer part of the slate...”

Retail Outlet Target Reduction · 19 January 2026. Management originally set a target in July 2025 to reach closer to 300 retail outlets for the fiscal year. The latest guidance has lowered this target to 250 outlets, representing a significant reduction in the expansion pace compared to the outlook provided two quarters prior. Earlier call (Jul 2025): “During the year, we plan to add probably another 100 retail outlets. And our target is to go closer to 300.” Later call (Jan 2026): “We have achieved the 200-mark for retail outlets and should be able to complete around 250 outlets within this fiscal year itself.”

IBB Pilot Plant Execution Delay · 19 January 2026. In July, management explicitly targeted mechanical completion by August 2025 with trial runs starting in September 2025. The latest update indicates that the plant will not begin running or showing results until 'next year,' signaling a substantial delay in the project timeline. Earlier call (Jul 2025): “We are expecting, by end of August, to have a mechanical completion, and probably start the trial runs say by third week of September or end of September.” Later call (Jan 2026): “Efforts of our innovation team will start to show from next year when the IBB pilot plant begins running.”

GRM Reporting Discontinued · 16 October 2025. Management made a sudden and unexplained shift by discontinuing the reporting of published Gross Refining Margin (GRM) figures in the October 2025 call, citing preference for using un-published figures internally. However, in the July 2025 call (Q1 FY26) and the April 2025 call (Q4 FY25), GRM figures were routinely stated ($3.88/bbl and $6.23/bbl, respectively), marking a material reduction in transparency regarding a key performance indicator.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions