Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd trades at ₹262, in a confirmed uptrend and 15 weeks into that stage. That is +34.3% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 87% of a 52-week range of ₹124 to ₹282. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 27 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 15 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹262 it trades +34.3% versus its 200-day average and sits at 87% of its 52-week range (₹124–₹282).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 2.8 years the stock moved −7% while the NIFTY 500 moved +21% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 27 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 22 August 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: EARLY_EXPANSION. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 22 August 2026.

Our read, 22 August 2026. Gandhar has delivered a record quarter, but the low trailing multiple reflects an exceptional spread that must normalize before value can be judged.

What is proven. Gandhar has delivered a record quarter, but the low trailing multiple reflects an exceptional spread that must normalize before value can be judged.

What is not proven yet. Two consecutive reported quarters with operating margin near the calculated mid-cycle level, falling operating cash conversion, and no quantified capex plan would show that the recent profit did not create a repeatable earnings base.

🚨 What would change our mind. Two consecutive reported quarters with operating margin near the calculated mid-cycle level, falling operating cash conversion, and no quantified capex plan would show that the recent profit did not create a repeatable earnings base.

🚨 Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — DROP. The cheapest stock here at 8x earnings — but those earnings are one quarter management calls exceptional. Gandhar's June quarter was extraordinary: sales of ₹1,732 crore and an operating margin of 16% against 3.5-6% in each of the previous eight quarters, producing profit of ₹206 crore against a normal ₹37 crore. That is what makes the multiple look like 8 times. But management called the gross spread exceptional and gave no bridge to a normal level, the mid-cycle margin is calculated at 6.1%, and the Timeline's own forward estimate is ₹20 of earnings a share against ₹30.80 trailing — on that basis the multiple is 12-14 times, ordinary rather than cheap. Underneath, cash is the bigger worry: only 19 paise of operating cash per rupee of reported profit over three years, with the shortfall…

What would change Layer 1’s mind. The Timeline's break condition is two quarters at mid-cycle margin with falling cash conversion and no quantified capex. Sharpened and pointed the other way: if the September 2026 quarter holds operating margin at or above 10% — nowhere near 16%, but far above the 6.1% mid-cycle level — AND operating cash conversion for FY27 tracks toward 0.8, then the spread gain was partly a durable mix shift into personal-care and industrial oils rather than pure spread luck, the cash dig closes, and this…

The test written in advance. Two consecutive reported quarters with operating margin near the calculated mid-cycle level, falling operating cash conversion, and no quantified capex plan would show that the recent profit did not create a repeatable earnings base. — the thesis as written as stated by the next result.

The test written in advance. Peak-margin valuation trap — Peak-margin valuation trap Reported operating margin below the calculated mid-cycle margin for two consecutive quarters. by the next result.

The test written in advance. Working-capital and debt-funded cash gap — Working-capital and debt-funded cash gap Operating cash conversion below the latest fiscal-year level with additional borrowing. by the next result.

What the company does. PHPO, PIO and export mix are supporting demand while fungible capacity gives management flexibility. The latest profitability print is clean of identified one-offs, but the margin is far above the calculated mid-cycle level. Cash conversion, margin normalization and delivery of the promised capex plan decide whether this becomes a durable recovery.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: A 16% operating margin reads as a step-up in earnings power. The research reads it further: The calculated normalized margin is 6.1%, while management attributes the quarter to pricing, mix, sourcing and inventory timing and calls the spread exceptional.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: The profit print reads as a decisive earnings inflection. The research reads it further: The deterministic durability block flags the latest profit as a single-quarter spike versus the preceding median, while the one-off ledger reports no material accounting one-off.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. PHPO, PIO and exports were the named contributors to the latest quarter. What proves it keeps working: Higher-value specialty and export mix. It stops working if PHPO share or export mix declines while margin normalizes.

Sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd reported ₹1,732 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +91.8% year on year. That is the 4th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 9.2% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹4,241 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹5,052 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹4,241 Cr (+8.8% on the year), capping 10 years at 9.2% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹1,732 Cr, +91.8% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +33.7% growth against the decade's 9.2% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +32.8% over the last 4 quarters against +11.9%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +317.1% vs +48.4%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd's operating margin is 16.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +11.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 11 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 2.0% to 8.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 16.0%, +11.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 11 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 2.0%–8.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +11.1 pp year on year while gross margin went +10.2 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd earned ₹206 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +692.3% year on year. It is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹137 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 18.1%. That is 11.9% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹26.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹206 Cr, +692.3% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹137 Cr (+63.1%), and the 10-year compound rate is 18.1%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +91.8% and the margin +11.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +273.2% vs revenue +33.7%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 19% of Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹128 Cr of operating cash against ₹137 Cr of profit. After ₹99.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹29.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹128 Cr against reported profit of ₹137 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹29.0 Cr after ₹99.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 19% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at 19%: the cash cycle stretched 61 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 61 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 83 days in FY26, up from 22 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹292 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹4,241 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹11.6 Cr, so roughly ₹964 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

Why this happened. The capacity constraint supports the need for expansion, but the prior reversal means only a budget, funding plan and commissioning date count as delivery.

FY26: debtors at 62 days, inventory at 64 days — roughly 2.1 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 83 days, looser than FY21's 22.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 64 days to sell; customers pay about 62 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 43 days — netting out to the 83-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹4,241 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹11.6 Cr — so the 83-day loop keeps roughly ₹964 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹292 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹76.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹29.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.⚠ unverified

Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd earns a ROCE of 13% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 11% in FY25. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +8.7 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 3.2% net margin on 1.91× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 13%, recovered from a FY25 trough of 11% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 3.2% net margin × 1.91× asset turns × 1.64× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 10.0% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 20.7% − 12.0% = a +8.7 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every rupee reinvested creates more than a rupee of value — the engine compounds.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.⚠ unverified

Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd carries total debt of ₹315 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,400 Cr as of Jun 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.23 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.28 in FY23 to 0.23 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Jun 26: total debt of ₹315 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,400 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.23. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.28 (FY23) to 0.23 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters added 2.0 points of Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 66.6% of the company. Domestic institutions moved −1.6 points over the same window, to 1.0%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: +2.0 points over 8 quarters to 66.6%; Domestic institutions: −1.6 points over 8 quarters to 1.0%; Foreign institutions: +1.1 points over 8 quarters to 1.3%.

Why the register moved: promoters drove it (+2.0 points), absorbed on the other side by domestic institutions (−1.6 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd trades at 8.4× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 4% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 13.9×, measured across 2.8 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 8.4× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 4% of the time, against a long-run median of 13.9× measured over 2.8 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +69.1% against a +86.6% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources do not share enough overlapping reported history to be compared. A figure nobody could check is not used to price growth — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 25 August 2026 price, Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 11.3% a year. Profit itself has compounded 18.1% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 8.4× P/E, the 4th percentile of its own 3-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is low against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 25 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 28 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −49.7% at the trough to +317.1%, a 5-quarter improving streak, ROCE holding at 13.0%. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

76.6/100 — rank 1 of 7 in Refineries · 87% evidence confidence

Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd scores 76.6 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in Refineries, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 30.7 + 11.9 + 14 + 20 = 76.6. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

EBITDA and Gross Spread Outlook Reset · 23 July 2026. In January and May 2026, management framed approximately 5.5%-6% EBITDA margins and an approximately INR7.8-INR8 per liter gross margin spread as the forward or sustainable level. In July 2026, after reporting a 16.2% EBITDA margin and a INR28,145 per kiloliter spread, management said it was hopeful of maintaining those levels for the whole year; although it cited exceptional market conditions as the driver, it did not reconcile this materially higher outlook with the prior normalized guidance or explain why exceptional spreads should persist.

Capital Expenditure Guidance Reversal · 27 May 2026. In the Nov 2025 call, management explicitly committed to a two to three year pause on capacity enhancements to align with existing utilization levels. By the May 2026 call, this capital expenditure holiday was completely sidelined, with management confirming they had already purchased land and were actively finalizing expansion budgets for the next two years, marking a substantial pivot in capital allocation.

Capacity Expansion Volte-face · 28 January 2026. In the November 2025 call, management explicitly ruled out any capacity expansion for at least the next 2-3 years, citing the need to utilize existing spare capacity first. However, in the January 2026 call, they completely reversed this stance, announcing plans to purchase additional land and stating that new capacity will likely come online within a year. Earlier call (Nov 2025): “I don”. Later call (Jan 2026): “As seen from the board meeting resolutions, we are planning to purchase additional pieces of land adjacent to our existing facilities for expansion... New capacity will likely come online by the end of this year or next year.”

🚨 Gross Margin Guidance Failure · 28 January 2026. Management confidently guided in the November 2025 call that the improved manufacturing gross margins (approx. INR 8,660/KL) would 'definitely' sustain for the next two quarters. Contradicting this specific guidance, the January 2026 call reported a significant contraction in margins to INR 7,271/KL, which was acknowledged as a 12-quarter low. Earlier call (Nov 2025): “This improvement will definitely be carrying forward to the next 2 quarters. We will be selling at improved gross margins for the next 2 quarters as compared to Q1.” Later call (Jan 2026): “The manufacturing gross margin spread for Q3 FY26 stood at 7,271 per kiloliter... Ritesh Polariya: Your manufacturing gross margin spread is at a 12-quarter low.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions