Lodha Developers Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Lodha Developers Ltd trades at ₹1,117, in a confirmed uptrend and 7 weeks into that stage. That is +3.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 73% of a 52-week range of ₹696 to ₹1,274. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 19 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 7 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹1,117 it trades +3.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 73% of its 52-week range (₹696–₹1,274).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 5.4 years the stock moved +321% while the NIFTY 500 moved +83% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 19 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Lodha Developers Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 13 September 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: mixed. Marker count: 12 not due yet. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 22 August 2026.

Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — KEEP. India's biggest home builder: profit doubled year on year while the share price went nowhere for twelve months. Sales rose 43.1% and profit 103.4% against the same quarter last year, and management kept both its full-year sales and profit targets unchanged. Meanwhile the shares cost 30.1 times earnings against a normal 44.15 for this company and the price is actually 2% LOWER than a year ago — so the whole gain has come from the business, not from investors paying more. The honest caveat is that one big land sale flattered the June quarter's margin (38% against a normal 29%), which management said itself, and only 28 paise of every rupee of last year's profit arrived as cash.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. The timeline says it would exit if launches and collections miss while operating margin falls below the guided range. I sharpen that to the single September-quarter observation that would flip P1 to P2 or worse: Q2 FY27 pre-sales coming in below the 5,000cr management itself put on the table, WITH embedded margin printing under 32%. That combination would say the deferred Q1 launches did not convert and the profitability was land-timing rather than pricing — and since the whole FY27 profit…

Layer 2 read, 22 August 2026 — ADVANCE. The sector recovery supports Lodha, but the next launch quarter must prove demand was only delayed. Revenue and profit rose together in June, while management says the high margin was helped by land-sale timing. The external sector work still supports selective deployment, but it also shows the year's sales plan depends on the same second-half approval window.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. Flip ADVANCE to DROP if Q2 residential pre-sales are below management's stated threshold or H1 misses the stated share of the annual target, especially if operating margin also falls below the full-year embedded range.

Layer 3 read, 22 August 2026 — DEPLOY. Deploy small: business delivery is intact, but promoter selling must stop. The external sweep found only LOW project-regulation and litigation exposure. The harder issue is governance: promoter entities sold through block deals, while the supplied calls did not explain the purpose; cash-funded investment and lower net debt keep the operating thesis intact.

What would change Layer 3’s mind. A further unexplained fall in promoter holding, or Q2 pre-sales below management's stated milestone while embedded margin drops below its guided range, would flip DEPLOY to DROP.

CIO read, 22 August 2026 — BENCH. NOT ADMITTED (incoming, benched) · forward-asymmetry 65/100 · CONTESTED. CONTEST — I judge deliverable EPS growth at 20%, just 1.7 points above the model's 18.3% requirement. The rating is still depressed at the 9th percentile, but land-sale timing lifted the latest margin and management remains on WATCHLIST.

The test written in advance. Q2 FY27 residential pre-sales — Q2 below Rs 5,000cr or H1 below 40% of the target — the 'it was only launch timing' explanation was wrong — Q2 FY27 residential pre-sales by FY27-Q2 (reported late Oct 2026).

The test written in advance. FY27 embedded EBITDA margin (ex-land 'early 30s'; full-year range 32-34%) — Embedded margin below 32% — the Q1 uplift was the peak and the margin leg reverses — FY27 embedded EBITDA margin (ex-land 'early 30s'; full-year range 32-34%) Q1 FY27 adjusted EBITDA margin 43% (land-timing-flattered); four-quarter operating margin 32.22% by FY27-Q2 through FY27-Q4, decisive at FY27-Q4 (Apr 2027).

The test written in advance. FY27 profit after tax — FY27 PAT materially below Rs 4,100cr — FY27 profit after tax by FY27-Q4 (Apr 2027).

Lever 14 · A bigger market to sell into — ACTIVE. Revenue Rs 18,181cr vs Rs 14,425cr in the prior four quarters (+26.0%), with every quarter up year on year (Sep-25 +44.6%, Dec-25 +14.4%, Mar-26 +11.6%, Jun-26 +43.1%); the revenue leg contributed Rs 1,097cr of the Rs 1,436cr pre-tax profit increase. What proves it keeps working: revenue for the quarter was at INR 50 billion, up 43% year-on-year (call 2026-07-27).

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. Four-quarter operating margin 29.21% to 32.22% (+3.0pp, margin leg Rs 547cr); Q1 FY27 adjusted EBITDA margin (operating profit before depreciation, as a share of revenue) 43% vs 34.4% a year ago; land sales of about Rs 1,200cr of pre-sales carrying roughly Rs 600cr of the Rs 1,373cr PAT; premium and luxury almost 60% of Q1 sales. What proves it keeps working: that's got to do with the fact that we've done in this quarter approximately half of the land sales that we would expect to do in the year. So that sort of forward loading has moved the margins up (call 2026-07-27). It stops working if Management guided full-year margins back to the early 30s (within the 32-34% range), said land sales cannot be forecast quarter to quarter, and FY26 EBITDA margin compressed versus FY25 on lower land sales.

Sources: Y-skill two-pass review (glm-5.3:cloud), rubric Y-OL-1, question set YQ-2, 2026-09-13; Instruction bundle sha 40f1470a8b7c9ab7d3146750da6b9d5303c908b1f97b016a50d8c55fe3951af6. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Lodha Developers Ltd reported ₹4,997 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +43.1% year on year. That is the 11th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 7.3% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹16,676 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹18,181 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹16,676 Cr (+21.0% on the year), capping 10 years at 7.3% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹4,997 Cr, +43.1% year on year — the 11th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +28.4% growth against the decade's 7.3% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +26.0% over the last 4 quarters against +25.5%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +39.2% vs +49.4%/yr — rolling over.

FY26-Q4. Revenue 4714 cr, PAT 1008 cr, OPM 30% — this review produced no quarter-level why; see the levers.

FY27-Q1. Revenue 4997 cr, PAT 1373 cr, OPM 38.5% — this review produced no quarter-level why; see the levers.

Why-sources: our stock research file (13 September 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Lodha Developers Ltd's operating margin is 38.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +10.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 15.0% to 30.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 38.0%, +10.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 15.0%–30.0%, and FY26's 30.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +10.3 pp year on year while gross margin went +9.1 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

FY26-Q4. Revenue 4714 cr, PAT 1008 cr, OPM 30% — this review produced no quarter-level why; see the levers.

FY27-Q1. Revenue 4997 cr, PAT 1373 cr, OPM 38.5% — this review produced no quarter-level why; see the levers.

Why-sources: our stock research file (13 September 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Lodha Developers Ltd earned ₹1,373 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +103.4% year on year. It is the 9th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹3,431 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 17.2%. That is 27.5% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹675 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹1,373 Cr, +103.4% year on year — the 9th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹3,431 Cr (+24.0%), and the 10-year compound rate is 17.2%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +43.1% and the margin +10.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +50.2% vs revenue +28.4%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

FY26-Q4. Revenue 4714 cr, PAT 1008 cr, OPM 30% — this review produced no quarter-level why; see the levers.

FY27-Q1. Revenue 4997 cr, PAT 1373 cr, OPM 38.5% — this review produced no quarter-level why; see the levers.

Why-sources: our stock research file (13 September 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 65% of Lodha Developers Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — most of the profit is real cash. In FY26 that was ₹959 Cr of operating cash against ₹3,431 Cr of profit. After ₹1,624 Cr of capital spending, ₹−665 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹959 Cr against reported profit of ₹3,431 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−665 Cr after ₹1,624 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 65% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at 65%: the cash cycle tightened 12 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 2.0× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Lodha Developers Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 32 days in FY26, down from 44 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹1,644 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹16,676 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹45.7 Cr, so roughly ₹1,462 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 32 days, inventory at 1,500 days — roughly 49.3 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 32 days, tighter than FY21's 44.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 1,500 days to sell; customers pay about 32 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 127 days — netting out to the 32-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹16,676 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹45.7 Cr — so the 32-day loop keeps roughly ₹1,462 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹1,644 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹821 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹10.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Lodha Developers Ltd earns a ROCE of 16% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 6% in FY20. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +4.2 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 20.6% net margin on 0.28× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 16%, recovered from a FY20 trough of 6% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 20.6% net margin × 0.28× asset turns × 2.52× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 14.5% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 16.2% − 12.0% = a +4.2 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Lodha Developers Ltd carries total debt of ₹9,896 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹23,429 Cr as of Jun 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.42. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.95 in FY22 to 0.42 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Jun 26: total debt of ₹9,896 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹23,429 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.42. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.95 (FY22) to 0.42 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 1.8 points of Lodha Developers Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 70.3% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +0.6 points over the same window, to 3.6%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −1.8 points over 8 quarters to 70.3%; Domestic institutions: +0.6 points over 8 quarters to 3.6%; Foreign institutions: −0.5 points over 8 quarters to 23.6%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−1.8 points), absorbed on the other side by domestic institutions (+0.6 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Lodha Developers Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Lodha Developers Ltd trades at 27.0× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 7% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 44.5×, measured across 5.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 27.0× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 7% of the time, against a long-run median of 44.5× measured over 5.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

One caveat before moving on: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. If profitability mean-reverts, today's multiple is higher than it looks.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +23.9% against a −4.4% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +16.6%/yr price move, ~+57.6%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−41.0 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 26 August 2026 price, Lodha Developers Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 18.3% a year. Profit itself has compounded 17.2% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 27.0× P/E, the 7th percentile of its own 5-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is low against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is close to what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 26 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Lodha Developers Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: profit growth has eased from +864.2% at its peak to +39.2% but is still expanding, ROCE lifting at 23.8%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

4-Factor Sector Score

83.3/100 — rank 1 of 7 in Realty - National · 100% evidence confidence

Lodha Developers Ltd scores 83.3 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in Realty - National, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 28.9 + 16 + 19.4 + 19 = 83.3. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Quarterly scorecard

12 markers came out of our Lodha Developers Ltd research file of 13 September 2026, and each results season scores every one of them. No results season has been scored against them yet. A row is permanent: a miss stays on the record after it is fixed.

Said versus delivered

What Lodha Developers Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

🚨 Non-data-center rental milestone pushed out · 27 July 2026. Management's non-data-center annuity milestone appears to have moved out by one year. In Apr 2026, it said existing retail, office and warehousing assets would generate about INR10 billion annually by fiscal '31 excluding data centers; in Jul 2026, it allocated only about INR10 billion to those categories by fiscal 2032, with no explanation for the timing change.

NCR launch timing moved into the full-year plan · 27 July 2026. The NCR launch assumption changed materially between the calls. In Apr 2026, management excluded the potential NCR launches from the launch guidance and expected them in Q4 of this fiscal or early fiscal 2028; in Jul 2026, it included the first NCR launch in the full-year calendar and said it would occur in the second half of this fiscal, without explaining the acceleration or readiness change.

Construction-cost impact estimate materially changed · 27 July 2026. Management's quantified assessment of Middle East-related construction cost risk was materially reduced in Jul 2026. In Apr 2026, it cited a 3% to 5% construction-cost increase and up to 1.7% margin impact if persistent through the construction cycle, whereas the latest call cited only a 1% to 1.5% cost increase for a full year and 35 to 75 basis points of project EBITDA impact; it did not reconcile the revised numbers even though the conflict had lasted beyond the earlier assumed resolution.

🚨 Palava Freeway Completion Target Misses · 27 April 2026. In the Oct 2025 call, management said the Palava-Airoli-Mulund freeway was nearly complete and would be 'operational next quarter' (by January 2026), directly linking its opening to a sales step-up in the extended eastern suburbs. By the Jan 2026 call this had slipped to '3 to 4 months,' and in the Apr 2026 call it remains unopened, now expected in '2-3 months'—a 6+ month cumulative overrun. Management itself acknowledged in Q4 that infrastructure delays 'definitely impacted' FY26 sales, yet no specific explanation is provided for why the timeline has kept shifting each quarter. Later call (Apr 2026): “It is expected that the Palava-Airoli-Mulund freeway will be operational imminently, within the next 2-3 months, unless the monsoon pushes it to post-monsoon, but we hope it is pre-monsoon.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions