IDFC First Bank Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

IDFC First Bank Ltd trades at ₹84.7, in a confirmed uptrend and 4 weeks into that stage. That is +13.2% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 95% of a 52-week range of ₹62 to ₹86. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 12 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 4 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹84.7 it trades +13.2% versus its 200-day average and sits at 95% of its 52-week range (₹62–₹86).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +80% while the NIFTY 500 moved +282% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 12 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each ₹1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.

IDFC First Bank Ltd trades at 1.5× P/BV, at the pricey end of its own range (73rd percentile). Its long-run median P/BV is 1.3×, measured across 9.1 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/BV of 1.5× is at the pricey end of its own range (73rd percentile), against a long-run median of 1.3× measured over 9.1 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

The honest context for that discount: a bank earning about 4% on its equity is worth less per rupee of book, and the market has priced that in rather than overlooked it. The discount closes only if the returns themselves improve.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year book value grew while the price moved +25.3% — the price ran ahead of the book, pushing the multiple up its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +10.2%/yr price move, ~+10.2%/yr came from book-value growth and ~+0.0 pp from the multiple (roughly flat). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus book-value growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

IDFC First Bank Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −49.3% at the trough to +77.2%, a 4-quarter improving streak, ROE holding at 3.4%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

4-Factor Sector Score

42.5/100 — rank 14 of 18 in Banks - Private · 82% evidence confidence

IDFC First Bank Ltd scores 42.5 out of 100 against the 18 companies it is compared with in Banks - Private, ranking 14. Acceleration candidate, not a confirmed leader: earnings are strong but sector-relative strength is -17.6% and the one-year return is 19.8%. Do not upgrade until sector-relative strength is above zero and another reported period confirms growth.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 26.4 + 6 + 3.5 + 6.6 = 42.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fee and other income.

IDFC First Bank Ltd reported ₹11,051 Cr of income in the Jun 26 quarter, +14.6% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 9 years it has compounded at 18.8% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹40,549 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹41,958 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹40,549 Cr (+11.1% on the year), capping 9 years at 18.8% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹11,051 Cr, +14.6% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +12.3% growth against the decade's 18.8% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +12.3% over the last 4 quarters against +14.1%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +77.2% vs −10.1%/yr — accelerating.

Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every ₹100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. It is the cleanest single margin we can read for a lender.

IDFC First Bank Ltd's net margin is 10.4% in the Jun 26 quarter, +5.7 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 10 fiscal years the net margin has ranged −17.5% to 11.9%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's net margin is 10.4%, +5.7 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 10 fiscal years the net margin has ranged −17.5%–11.9%.

Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

IDFC First Bank Ltd earned ₹1,148 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +153.4% year on year. It is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹1,611 Cr. The 9-year compound rate is 5.2%. That is 10.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹453 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹1,148 Cr, +153.4% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹1,611 Cr (+8.1%), and the 9-year compound rate is 5.2%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +14.6% and the margin +5.7 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +67.6% vs revenue +12.3%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.

Loan-book quality history is not available for IDFC First Bank Ltd, so this section names the gap rather than estimating a ratio. No gross or net non-performing-asset series is filed in a form this page can read, and none is inferred from the profit line. The income, margin and return sections above carry the evidence this business does report.

We do not hold quarterly loan-book quality numbers for this bank, so this section states that plainly rather than working around it.

Why: loan-book quality is the engine room of a bank, and its drivers — slippages, recoveries, provisioning — sit below what we hold for this name; the sections around it carry the reads we can stand behind.

The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book grows, revenue grows with it. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.

IDFC First Bank Ltd's revenue grew +11.1% in FY26 to ₹40,549 Cr, so the book is growing. The latest quarter ran +14.6% year on year. The net margin on that income is 10.4%, +5.7 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.

FY26 revenue was ₹40,549 Cr, +11.1% on the year, and the latest quarter ran +14.6% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 10.4% this quarter (+5.7 pp YoY) — growth with a widening margin on it.

The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — gross NPA is the loan-quality read we carry here.

Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.

IDFC First Bank Ltd earns a return on equity of 4% in FY26. Its trough over the ladder below was −17% in FY20. On the asset side every ₹100 of the balance sheet earned about ₹0.59, which is the return before leverage is applied.

FY26 ROE came in at 4%, recovered from a FY20 trough of −17%. On assets, the latest reading is about 0.59% — every ₹100 the bank deploys earns roughly ₹0.59 a year. That return is below the bar a bank must clear to compound book value quickly — which is also the honest reason the stock trades where it does.

Why ROE moved: profit compounded 5.2% a year over 9 years while the equity base grew more slowly — earnings recovering faster than book value builds is what lifts ROE off a trough.

Debt

For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.

A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 37.4 points of IDFC First Bank Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 0.0% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +16.4 points over the same window, to 24.4%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −37.4 points over 8 quarters to 0.0%; Domestic institutions: +16.4 points over 8 quarters to 24.4%; Foreign institutions: +15.1 points over 8 quarters to 36.1%. Note the structure: promoters hold under 20% — this is a widely-held company where institutions, not a family, set the direction.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−37.4 points), absorbed on the other side by domestic institutions (+16.4 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

IDFC First Bank Ltd: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.

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