ICICI Bank Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

ICICI Bank Ltd trades at ₹1,435, in a downtrend and 19 weeks into that stage. That is +6.3% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 96% of a 52-week range of ₹1,234 to ₹1,444. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 8 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 19 of stage 4. At ₹1,435 it trades +6.3% versus its 200-day average and sits at 96% of its 52-week range (₹1,234–₹1,444).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +638% while the NIFTY 500 moved +276% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 8 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each ₹1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.

ICICI Bank Ltd trades at 2.7× P/BV, mid-range by its own standards (48th percentile). Its long-run median P/BV is 2.8×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/BV of 2.7× is mid-range by its own standards (48th percentile), against a long-run median of 2.8× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

One caveat before moving on: the net margin is the best this company has ever printed — cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. If profitability mean-reverts, today's multiple is higher than it looks.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year book value grew while the price moved −2.5% — price and book moved together, holding the multiple in its range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +16.0%/yr price move, ~+17.7%/yr came from book-value growth and ~−1.7 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +19.6%/yr price move, ~+13.5%/yr came from book-value growth and ~+6.1 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus book-value growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.

The PEG ratio and its quarterly curve, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 7.0% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

ICICI Bank Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROE at 16.0% and holding. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

47.0/100 — rank 12 of 18 in Banks - Private · 73% evidence confidence

ICICI Bank Ltd scores 47.0 out of 100 against the 18 companies it is compared with in Banks - Private, ranking 12. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 10.6 + 19.9 + 9.6 + 6.9 = 47. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fee and other income.

ICICI Bank Ltd reported ₹52,241 Cr of income in the Jun 26 quarter, +6.4% year on year. That is the 11th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 12.7% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,95,218 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,98,380 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,95,218 Cr (+4.8% on the year), capping 10 years at 12.7% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹52,241 Cr, +6.4% year on year — the 11th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +3.9% growth against the decade's 12.7% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +4.0% over the last 4 quarters against +9.0%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +5.6% vs +12.1%/yr — rolling over.

Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every ₹100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. It is the cleanest single margin we can read for a lender.

ICICI Bank Ltd's net margin is 31.2% in the Jun 26 quarter, +1.7 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 7.9% to 29.7%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's net margin is 31.2%, +1.7 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 7.9%–29.7%, and FY26's 29.7% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

ICICI Bank Ltd earned ₹16,276 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +12.6% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹57,936 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 18.2%. That is 31.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹14,456 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹16,276 Cr, +12.6% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹57,936 Cr (+6.2%), and the 10-year compound rate is 18.2%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +6.4% and the margin +1.7 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +5.5% vs revenue +3.9%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.

Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.

Loan-book quality history is not available for ICICI Bank Ltd, so this section names the gap rather than estimating a ratio. No gross or net non-performing-asset series is filed in a form this page can read, and none is inferred from the profit line. The income, margin and return sections above carry the evidence this business does report.

We do not hold quarterly loan-book quality numbers for this bank, so this section states that plainly rather than working around it.

Why: loan-book quality is the engine room of a bank, and its drivers — slippages, recoveries, provisioning — sit below what we hold for this name; the sections around it carry the reads we can stand behind.

The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book grows, revenue grows with it. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.

ICICI Bank Ltd's revenue grew +4.8% in FY26 to ₹1,95,218 Cr, so the book is growing. The latest quarter ran +6.4% year on year. The net margin on that income is 31.2%, +1.7 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.

FY26 revenue was ₹1,95,218 Cr, +4.8% on the year, and the latest quarter ran +6.4% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 31.2% this quarter (+1.7 pp YoY) — growth with a widening margin on it.

The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — gross NPA is the loan-quality read we carry here.

Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.

ICICI Bank Ltd earns a return on equity of 16% in FY26. Its trough over the ladder below was 4% in FY19. For a lender the balance sheet is the operating asset, so equity return and asset return have to be read together.

FY26 ROE came in at 16%, recovered from a FY19 trough of 4%. On assets, the latest reading is about null% — every ₹100 the bank deploys earns roughly null a year. That clears the bar a bank must beat for its book value to compound.

Why ROE moved: profit compounded 18.2% a year over 10 years while the equity base grew more slowly — earnings recovering faster than book value builds is what lifts ROE off a trough.

The quarterly return-on-equity and return-on-assets curves, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 7.0% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Debt

For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.

A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 11.7 points of ICICI Bank Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 33.8% of the company. Domestic institutions moved −2.1 points over the same window, to 42.3%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −11.7 points over 8 quarters to 33.8%; Domestic institutions: −2.1 points over 8 quarters to 42.3%.

🚨 Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (−11.7 points), alongside domestic institutions (−2.1 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

ICICI Bank Ltd: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.

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