ICICI Bank Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

ICICI Bank Ltd trades at ₹1,379, in a confirmed uptrend and 7 weeks into that stage. That is +0.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 72% of a 52-week range of ₹1,216 to ₹1,444. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 14 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 7 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹1,379 it trades +0.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 72% of its 52-week range (₹1,216–₹1,444).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +609% while the NIFTY 500 moved +267% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 14 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

ICICI Bank Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 22 August 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: MID_EXPANSION. Still open: Ongoing remediation on ₹200-250 billion agricultural portfolio post ₹12.83 billion RBI-directed provision. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 22 August 2026.

Our read, 22 August 2026. ICICI Bank delivers predictable earnings compounding driven by granular business banking (+28.2% YoY) and rural growth (+35.4% YoY), backed by 16.2% CET1 capital and 0.40% Net NPA, trading at a reasonable 2.69x P/BV (40th percentile of 10-year range).

From the numbers. ICICI Bank's valuation multiple sits at 2.69x-2.70x P/BV, which corresponds to the 40th percentile of its 10-year valuation distribution and 0.964x of its 10-year median (2.80x). As a financial institution, DCF metrics…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 7 — above its 200-day line, relative strength falling.

From the research. ICICI Bank delivers predictable earnings compounding driven by granular business banking (+28.2% YoY) and rural growth (+35.4% YoY), backed by 16.2% CET1 capital and 0.40% Net NPA, trading at a reasonable 2.69x P/BV…

🚨 Where they disagree. ICICI Bank's valuation multiple sits at 2.69x-2.70x P/BV, which corresponds to the 40th percentile of its 10-year valuation distribution and 0.964x of its 10-year median (2.80x). As a financial institution, DCF metrics are replaced by justified P/BV grounded in return on equity. With ROE stabilizing at 15.9% (60th percentile of history), asset quality at 0.40% Net NPA, and CET1 at 16.2%, current valuation offers an attractive entry multiple with multiple compression (-15.6% over 8 quarters) occurring alongside steady earnings expansion (+14% EPS over 8 quarters).

What is proven. ICICI Bank delivers predictable earnings compounding driven by granular business banking (+28.2% YoY) and rural growth (+35.4% YoY), backed by 16.2% CET1 capital and 0.40% Net NPA, trading at a reasonable 2.69x P/BV (40th percentile of 10-year range).

What is not proven yet. Ongoing remediation on ₹200-250 billion agricultural portfolio post ₹12.83 billion RBI-directed provision.

Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — KEEP. Profit compounding on secured lending as price-to-book falls - but only ~8% of re-rating room is left. ICICI's profit rose from Rs 11,351 Cr to Rs 16,276 Cr over twelve quarters and the single down-quarter was a one-off regulatory provision of Rs 12.83 bn, not a broken engine. The growth is coming from small-business and rural lending, up 28.2% and 35.4% year on year, with margin held at 4.4% because deposit costs fell to 4.4% from 4.9%. The catch is price: the shares trade at 2.69 times book against a ten-year median of 2.80-2.90 times, so the market is already paying close to the normal price for a bank whose trailing profit is growing under 6%.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. Net bad loans rising through 0.75% or core margin (excluding tax refunds) falling below 4.10% in a single quarter without matching deposit-cost relief - or the RBI agricultural review ending with a fresh capital charge instead of the current Rs 12.83 bn holding provision. Any one of those breaks the 'compounding with contained credit' case that this KEEP rests on.

Layer 2 read, 22 August 2026 — ADVANCE. The private-bank turn is broad, and ICICI's secured-loan engine is already confirming it.

Layer 3 read, 22 August 2026 — DEPLOY. Strong secured-loan execution outweighs two managed risks, but the initial size stays capped. Business banking and rural lending are the active growth engines, while net interest margin remained stable. Timeline R1 and the targeted search agree that the agricultural issue is a compliance remediation with the provision already held, not current borrower damage. L3 found a separate unconfirmed cyber allegation that the Timeline missed, so the stock can DEPLOY only at a capped P2 size.

What would change Layer 3’s mind. DEPLOY flips to DROP on a fresh capital charge from the agricultural review, or if net bad loans exceed 0.75% or core margin falls below 4.10% without deposit-cost relief.

CIO read, 22 August 2026 — BENCH. NOT ADMITTED (incoming, benched) · forward-asymmetry 54/100 · CONTESTED. Using the right lens for a bank, it trades at 2.7 times book versus a 2.8-times median and at the 42nd percentile of its own history. Judged EPS growth of 10.0% is below the model-implied 11.4%, a derived -1.4-point gap, but the private-bank turn and DEPLOY regime keep it in the fight.

The test written in advance. Agricultural PSL Compliance and Remediation Uncertainty — Agricultural PSL Compliance and Remediation Uncertainty Audit commentary or RBI inspection reports regarding PSL shortfall penalties or further provisioning mandates. by the next result.

The test written in advance. Credit Card and Retail Unsecured Stagnation — Credit Card and Retail Unsecured Stagnation Continued sequential contraction in fee income from cards and retail payment segments. by the next result.

The test written in advance. Normalization of Credit Costs Post NCLT Recovery — Normalization of Credit Costs Post NCLT Recovery Quarterly provision expenses rising above ₹20 billion without offsetting recovery write-backs. by the next result.

What the company does. Core operational profitability is driven by rapid growth in higher-yielding, secured granular books: Business Banking expanded 28.2% YoY and Rural Lending 35.4% YoY in Q1 FY27. Balance sheet resilience is supported by a 16.2% CET1 ratio, contingency provisions of ₹131 billion (0.8% of loans), and an improved Net NPA ratio of 0.40%. Valuation at 2.69x P/BV sits at the 40th percentile of its 10-year history, offering a favorable risk-reward as ROE stabilizes around 15.9% across rate cycles.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: ROE of 15.9% is moderate relative to peak levels of ~18-19%. The research reads it further: ROE normalized to 15.9% due to rate cuts repricing external benchmark-linked loans (57% of book) faster than deposits, alongside conservative standard asset provisioning (₹12.83 billion PSL directive). Operating return remains above cost of equity (~14%) with CET1 capital buffer at 16.2%.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: P/BV at 2.69x is at 0.964x of 10-year median, indicating a fairly valued multiple. The research reads it further: P/BV multiple contracted -15.6% over the last 8 quarters while quarterly EPS expanded +14%. This multiple compression during earnings expansion reflects market-wide private bank derating rather than idiosyncratic franchise deterioration.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. Core operating profit grew 15.6% YoY versus 10.4% operating expense growth in Q1 FY27. What proves it keeps working: Operating Leverage via Technology and Distribution. It stops working if IT expenditure escalation or wage revisions push cost-to-income ratio above 45%.

Sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fee and other income.

ICICI Bank Ltd reported ₹52,241 Cr of income in the Jun 26 quarter, +6.4% year on year. That is the 11th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 12.7% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,95,218 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,98,380 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,95,218 Cr (+4.8% on the year), capping 10 years at 12.7% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹52,241 Cr, +6.4% year on year — the 11th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +3.9% growth against the decade's 12.7% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +4.0% over the last 4 quarters against +9.0%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +5.6% vs +12.1%/yr — rolling over.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹49,594 Cr and profit ₹15,681 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹52,241 Cr and profit ₹16,276 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every ₹100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. It is the cleanest single margin we can read for a lender.

ICICI Bank Ltd's net margin is 31.2% in the Jun 26 quarter, +1.7 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 7.9% to 29.7%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

Why this happened. The bank is capitalizing on ecosystem banking, digital onboarding, and merchant acquiring to expand its Business Banking portfolio, which grew 28.2% YoY and 6.9% QoQ to become a principal balance sheet pillar. The segment offers superior risk-adjusted yields with granular collateralization, dampening credit volatility relative to unsecured retail.

The latest quarter's net margin is 31.2%, +1.7 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 7.9%–29.7%, and FY26's 29.7% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹49,594 Cr and profit ₹15,681 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹52,241 Cr and profit ₹16,276 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

ICICI Bank Ltd earned ₹16,276 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +12.6% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹57,936 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 18.2%. That is 31.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹14,456 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹16,276 Cr, +12.6% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹57,936 Cr (+6.2%), and the 10-year compound rate is 18.2%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +6.4% and the margin +1.7 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +5.5% vs revenue +3.9%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹49,594 Cr and profit ₹15,681 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹52,241 Cr and profit ₹16,276 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.

Loan-book quality history is not available for ICICI Bank Ltd, so this section names the gap rather than estimating a ratio. No gross or net non-performing-asset series is filed in a form this page can read, and none is inferred from the profit line. The income, margin and return sections above carry the evidence this business does report.

We do not hold quarterly loan-book quality numbers for this bank, so this section states that plainly rather than working around it.

Why: loan-book quality is the engine room of a bank, and its drivers — slippages, recoveries, provisioning — sit below what we hold for this name; the sections around it carry the reads we can stand behind.

The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book grows, revenue grows with it. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.

ICICI Bank Ltd's revenue grew +4.8% in FY26 to ₹1,95,218 Cr, so the book is growing. The latest quarter ran +6.4% year on year. The net margin on that income is 31.2%, +1.7 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.

FY26 revenue was ₹1,95,218 Cr, +4.8% on the year, and the latest quarter ran +6.4% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 31.2% this quarter (+1.7 pp YoY) — growth with a widening margin on it.

The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — gross NPA is the loan-quality read we carry here.

Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.

ICICI Bank Ltd earns a return on equity of 16% in FY26. Its trough over the ladder below was 4% in FY19. For a lender the balance sheet is the operating asset, so equity return and asset return have to be read together.

FY26 ROE came in at 16%, recovered from a FY19 trough of 4%. Return on assets is withheld on this page — its two source series disagree for this quarter. That clears the bar a bank must beat for its book value to compound.

Why ROE moved: profit compounded 18.2% a year over 10 years while the equity base grew more slowly — earnings recovering faster than book value builds is what lifts ROE off a trough.

The quarterly return-on-equity and return-on-assets curves, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 7.0% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Debt

For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.

Why this happened. Technology investments represent 11.4% of operating expenses, driving straight-through processing and branch productivity across 7,608 locations. Core operating profit growth (+15.6% YoY to ₹20,200 Cr) outpaced operating expense growth (+10.4% YoY), expanding the bank's pre-provision operating buffer.

A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 11.7 points of ICICI Bank Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 33.8% of the company. Domestic institutions moved −2.1 points over the same window, to 42.3%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −11.7 points over 8 quarters to 33.8%; Domestic institutions: −2.1 points over 8 quarters to 42.3%.

🚨 Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (−11.7 points), alongside domestic institutions (−2.1 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

ICICI Bank Ltd: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.

Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each ₹1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.

ICICI Bank Ltd trades at 2.6× P/BV, mid-range by its own standards (45th percentile). Its long-run median P/BV is 2.8×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/BV of 2.6× is mid-range by its own standards (45th percentile), against a long-run median of 2.8× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

One caveat before moving on: the net margin is the best this company has ever printed — cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. If profitability mean-reverts, today's multiple is higher than it looks.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year book value grew while the price moved −2.7% — price and book moved together, holding the multiple in its range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +13.9%/yr price move, ~+18.0%/yr came from book-value growth and ~−4.1 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +18.7%/yr price move, ~+13.7%/yr came from book-value growth and ~+5.0 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus book-value growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.

The PEG ratio and its quarterly curve, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 7.0% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 26 August 2026 price, ICICI Bank Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 11.4% a year. Profit itself has compounded 18.2% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 2.6× P/BV, the 45th percentile of its own 11-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is unremarkable against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 26 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

ICICI Bank Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROE at 16.0% and holding. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

47.8/100 — rank 12 of 18 in Banks - Private · 79% evidence confidence

ICICI Bank Ltd scores 47.8 out of 100 against the 18 companies it is compared with in Banks - Private, ranking 12. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 10.6 + 19.9 + 9.9 + 7.4 = 47.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What ICICI Bank Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

🚨 Credit Card Growth Guidance Missed · 18 April 2026. In the January 2026 call (Q3 FY26), management explicitly characterised the credit card portfolio's sequential decline as a seasonal 'one-off' driven by post-festive repayments and guided that the book would gradually improve and 'grow from here on.' In the April 2026 call (Q4 FY26), the portfolio declined further by 5.6% YoY and 1.3% sequentially, with management now attributing the continued contraction to structural factors around spends and revolvers—contradicting both the prior one-off seasonal narrative and the stated recovery expectation. Earlier call (Jan 2026): “The sequential decline in the credit card portfolio was due to high festive spends towards the end of the previous quarter, which had resulted in high sequential book growth in that quarter, and saw repayments in the current quarter... the book decline is more one-off and we should see it gradually improve from here on. We feel that the book should grow from here on.” Later call (Apr 2026): “The Q3 decline was seasonal after the festive spike. The Q4 decline is a function of spends and revolvers. While the decline in revolvers has impacted industry profitability over the last two years, it remains a very profitable business for us. We are focused on acquiring the right set of customers.”

PSL Disclosure Gap · 18 April 2026. In the October 2025 call (Q2 FY26), when an analyst specifically asked whether there had been any regulatory discussion with the bank about PSL classification issues on agricultural loans—explicitly citing a similar problem at a peer bank—management responded there was 'nothing specific to call out at this point in time.' By the April 2026 call (Q4 FY26), the bank was still actively managing a major RBI-directed standard asset provision of Rs. 12.83 billion for agricultural PSL misclassification on a Rs. 200-250 billion portfolio originated since 2012, raising material questions about the completeness of management's response when directly and specifically questioned in October 2025. Earlier call (Oct 2025): “We have our processes for the PSL classification and those get reviewed, regulator can always examine and have a view, but nothing specific to call out at this point in time.” Later call (Apr 2026): “On the agricultural priority sector provision, we are still holding those as of March while we work through the portfolio to bring it into conformity with regulatory requirements. We should have an update in a quarter or so.”

Regulatory Compliance Transparency · 17 January 2026. In the October 2025 call, when specifically asked about PSL classification issues seen at peer banks and discussions with the regulator, management dismissed concerns stating there was nothing specific to report. However, in the January 2026 call, they disclosed a significant regulatory adverse finding requiring a 12.83 billion rupee provision due to non-compliance on a 200-250 billion rupee portfolio. Earlier call (Oct 2025): “We have our processes for the PSL classification and those get reviewed... but nothing specific to call out at this point in time.” Later call (Jan 2026): “RBI has directed the bank to make a standard asset provision of 12.83 billion rupees... wherein the terms of the facilities were found to be not fully compliant with the regulatory requirements.”

Unsecured Growth Stagnation · 17 January 2026. During the July 2025 call, management expressed confidence in the quality of the unsecured portfolio and explicitly guided for a pickup in volumes and better growth in personal loans and cards. Contradicting this optimism, the January 2026 results showed a year-on-year decline in the credit card book and very sluggish low single-digit growth in personal loans. Earlier call (Jul 2025): “We are quite comfortable with the quality of origination... So, I think we can see volumes pick up and see some better growth there.” Later call (Jan 2026): “Personal loans grew by 2.4% year-on-year... The credit card portfolio declined by 3.5% year-on-year.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions