Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd
TMBTamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's price has outrun its earnings. +98.1% in a year against EPS +13.1% — the market is paying now for delivery later.
The sharpest disagreement: the price moved +98.1% in a year while annual EPS moved +13.1% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings.
The price is in a confirmed uptrend (40 weeks in) while the P/BV sits at the 95th percentile of its own 4-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read improving — profit +35.1% year on year, and gross NPA has eased to 0.69%. What settles it: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd trades at ₹849, in a confirmed uptrend and 40 weeks into that stage. That is +26.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 94% of a 52-week range of ₹425 to ₹876. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 7 straight weeks.
Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 40 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹849 it trades +26.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 94% of its 52-week range (₹425–₹876).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 3.9 years the stock moved +72% while the NIFTY 500 moved +54% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 7 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
Story check
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 17 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: QUALITY_CONSOLIDATION. Still open: Oct 2025 'breakout at 20% profit growth' vs Apr 2026 ROA 1.9-2% + ROE 13-15% guidance — implies profit growth closer to 10-12%, a material gap from prior narrative.
Our read, 17 May 2026. A transformation-complete regional bank at trough P/BV — credit quality at 40-quarter highs while MSME growth ramp and geographic expansion are just beginning.
From the numbers. P/BV 1.05x with ROE 15% is the defining tension — this bank is priced like a mediocre lender but delivers top-decile asset quality. FII buying has progressively increased from near-zero (0.07% Jun 2023) to 4.65% (Sep…
From the price. Price stage 2, week 40 — above its 200-day line, relative strength falling.
From the research. A transformation-complete regional bank at trough P/BV — credit quality at 40-quarter highs while MSME growth ramp and geographic expansion are just beginning.
What is proven. A transformation-complete regional bank at trough P/BV — credit quality at 40-quarter highs while MSME growth ramp and geographic expansion are just beginning.
What is not proven yet. Oct 2025 'breakout at 20% profit growth' vs Apr 2026 ROA 1.9-2% + ROE 13-15% guidance — implies profit growth closer to 10-12%, a material gap from prior narrative.
Layer 1 read, 19 July 2026 — KEEP. Owned regional bank re-rating off trough book on 40-quarter-best asset quality — the only positive-asymmetry name in the batch, P1.
What would change Layer 1’s mind. MSME growth undershooting 12% in FY27 with ROA falling below 1.8% (the bear case) OR any gold-loan LTV breach forcing credit cost up (gold is 46% of advances) — either breaks the asset-quality-led re-rating thesis and would flip this from hold to trim.
Layer 2 read, 19 July 2026 — ADVANCE. Owned regional bank at 1.25x P/BV on 40-quarter-best asset quality, riding a 14-month-high FPI reversal into private banks -- external evidence confirms the hold. On the correct P/BV-vs-ROE lens (not the misleading ELEVATED PE) TMB is 1.25x against a clean, compounding book -- GNPA 1.56->0.73, NNPA 0.66->0.18, PAT accelerating to +28% -- so the cheapness is genuine, not a value trap. Externally the sector wind is STRONG_TAILWIND, the bank ranks 3 in the private-banks focus group, and cross-sector chain-1 shows FPIs turning net BFSI buyers (Rs 14,634cr, sharpest sectoral reversal in 14 months). The FY27 guidance walkback is a known internal flag L1 already priced, not a new external negative.
What would change Layer 2’s mind. A credit-cost surge -- ECL landing top-of-range PLUS fresh slippage turning the clean book dirty (the sector_timeline's own falsifier) -- or a Tier-1 governance finding on the gold-loan LTV methodology opacity, would flip ADVANCE toward DROP. A reversal of the FPI-into-BFSI flow (chain-1 unwinding) would remove the external tailwind and warrant re-stress.
Layer 3 read, 19 July 2026 — DEPLOY. Predecessor-era ED case doesn't touch current management; asset quality at 40-quarter best keeps this an intact deploy. The scary-looking Rs 205 Cr ED case is against the ex-chairman, not the sitting board, so it clears mgmt PASS. External risk is otherwise LOW — the real exposures are just Tamil Nadu concentration (~74%) and gold-LTV, both diffuse. Meanwhile GNPA fell to a 40-quarter-best 0.73% and PAT rose +28.1% with FIIs accumulating to 6.19% — the risk vector points down, not up.
What would change Layer 3’s mind. The ED/corruption case being extended to the SITTING board or CEO, or a fresh RBI enforcement action on current management (beyond the immaterial Nov-2025 penalty) — that would escalate litigation/governance to HIGH and flip mgmt PASS->FAIL.
The test written in advance. FY27 Profit Growth Guidance Walkback (Breakout Narrative Abandoned) — FY27 Profit Growth Guidance Walkback (Breakout Narrative Abandoned) Q1 FY27 actual ROA vs 1.9-2% guided; any PAT guidance upgrade if MSME ramps faster by the next result.
The test written in advance. Cost-to-Income Target Quietly Raised (<45% → <50%) — Cost-to-Income Target Quietly Raised (<45% → <50%) Q1 FY27 cost-to-income actual vs 46-47% guide by the next result.
The test written in advance. Gold Loan LTV Methodology Opacity — Gold Loan LTV Methodology Opacity Q1 FY27 gold LTV disclosure — consistency with Mar 2026 methodology by the next result.
What the company does. FY26 closed with Net Profit +28% (Rs 1,338 Cr), ROA 2.05% (beat 1.85% guide), ROE 15.03% (beat 14% guide), GNPA at 40-quarter low of 0.73% — every key metric beat guidance. P/BV of 1.05x on a bank with 15% ROE, 74.89% PCR, and only 2.02% total stressed portfolio; cycle position COMPRESSED at 60th P/BV percentile but with structural quality far above peer average. MSME LMS fully live, 60 branches planned FY27 (15+ outside Tamil Nadu), CASA at 28.14% and rising — three compounding growth engines starting FY27 with execution infrastructure now in place.
| Dial | Now | Was | Why it matters | Watch line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSME Growth Ramp (LMS + CMC fully live) | HIGH | — | MSME grew 14.88% FY26 after near-zero Q1; LMS + CMCs now fully operational across all regions; targeting 22% growth FY27 at… | Q1 FY27 actual ROA vs 1.9-2% guided; any PAT guidance upgrade if MSME ramps faster |
| Geographic Expansion (Non-Tamil Nadu… | MEDIUM_HIGH | — | 45 branches opened FY26 (15 outside TN); 60 planned FY27. Non-TN at 26% of branches targeting 35%+ over 3 years. Liability RM… | Q1 FY27 actual ROA vs 1.9-2% guided; any PAT guidance upgrade if MSME ramps faster |
| Asset Quality Improvement (40-Quarter High) | HIGH | — | GNPA 0.73%, Net NPA 0.18%, total stressed portfolio 2.02% — industry-leading. Credit cost 1 basis point. PCR 74.89% + Rs 250 Cr… | Q1 FY27 actual ROA vs 1.9-2% guided; any PAT guidance upgrade if MSME ramps faster |
| CASA Re-Rating (Liability RM + Digital) | MEDIUM | — | CASA Rs 17,365 Cr (+22.35% vs 15% guided), share 28.14% (+170bps). Current Accounts +25.62%, Savings +21.04%. Highest deposit… | Q1 FY27 actual ROA vs 1.9-2% guided; any PAT guidance upgrade if MSME ramps faster |
| Gold Loan Portfolio Yield Defense | MEDIUM | — | Rs 24,790 Cr gold loan portfolio (46% of advances) at 10.11% blended yield. Retail gold normalizing while agri gold grows… | Q1 FY27 actual ROA vs 1.9-2% guided; any PAT guidance upgrade if MSME ramps faster |
| Housing Loan Disbursement Ramp | MEDIUM | — | 22% sanctions growth pipeline building; current portfolio -7% due to disbursement lag. Management optimistic on FY27… | Q1 FY27 actual ROA vs 1.9-2% guided; any PAT guidance upgrade if MSME ramps faster |
Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. MSME grew 14.88% FY26 after near-zero Q1; LMS + CMCs now fully operational across all regions; targeting 22% growth FY27 at 10.52% yield with 2.58% ROA. What proves it keeps working: MSME Growth Ramp (LMS + CMC fully live). It stops working if Q1 FY27 actual ROA vs 1.9-2% guided; any PAT guidance upgrade if MSME ramps faster.
Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. 45 branches opened FY26 (15 outside TN); 60 planned FY27. Non-TN at 26% of branches targeting 35%+ over 3 years. Liability RM expansion driving CASA outside home state. What proves it keeps working: Geographic Expansion (Non-Tamil Nadu Branch Push). It stops working if Q1 FY27 actual ROA vs 1.9-2% guided; any PAT guidance upgrade if MSME ramps faster.
Lever 5 · Regulatory approval — BUILDING. GNPA 0.73%, Net NPA 0.18%, total stressed portfolio 2.02% — industry-leading. Credit cost 1 basis point. PCR 74.89% + Rs 250 Cr contingency buffer for ECL. What proves it keeps working: Asset Quality Improvement (40-Quarter High). It stops working if Q1 FY27 actual ROA vs 1.9-2% guided; any PAT guidance upgrade if MSME ramps faster.
Lever 3 · Management change — BUILDING. CASA Rs 17,365 Cr (+22.35% vs 15% guided), share 28.14% (+170bps). Current Accounts +25.62%, Savings +21.04%. Highest deposit growth in 40 quarters. What proves it keeps working: CASA Re-Rating (Liability RM + Digital). It stops working if Q1 FY27 actual ROA vs 1.9-2% guided; any PAT guidance upgrade if MSME ramps faster.
Sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.
| Section | Where it is now | Vs a year ago | The one thing to watch next | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | 0% | — | MSME Growth Ramp (LMS + CMC fully live) | |
| Revenue | ₹1,550 Cr | — | Geographic Expansion (Non-Tamil Nadu Branch Push) | |
| Safety | see the section | — | Asset Quality Improvement (40-Quarter High) | |
| Ownership | see the section | — | CASA Re-Rating (Liability RM + Digital) |
Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fee and other income.
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd reported ₹1,662 Cr of income in the Jun 26 quarter, +19.9% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 8 years it has compounded at 7.6% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹5,819 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹6,094 Cr.
Why this happened. TMB's home state concentration (Tamil Nadu ~74% of branches) is both a moat and a ceiling. The planned 60-branch FY27 opening with geographic diversification is the multi-year unlock. Non-TN branches currently contribute 22-23% of business. The five-year target of 35%+ of branch network outside TN structurally expands TAM. CASA growth outside TN was cited as a primary reason for the 22.35% CASA surge. HR pipeline (Manipal BFSI Academy, IBPS recruitment) ensures local staffing.
FY26 revenue came in at ₹5,819 Cr (+10.0% on the year), capping 8 years at 7.6% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹1,662 Cr, +19.9% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +12.9% growth against the decade's 7.6% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.
Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +12.9% over the last 4 quarters against +10.7%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +20.5% vs +14.8%/yr — accelerating.
FY26-Q3. Record profit, guidance beats on all fronts — foundation igniting
Why-sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.
Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every ₹100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. It is the cleanest single margin we can read for a lender.
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's net margin is 24.8% in the Jun 26 quarter, +2.8 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 9 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 6.8% to 25.2%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
Why this happened. The MSME pivot is the highest-conviction forward driver. After a Q1 FY26 decline, MSME growth accelerated through H2 as the Loan Management System and Credit Management Centers went live. FY26 closed at 14.88% growth. Management is targeting 22% for FY27 with the full system infrastructure now in place. At 10.52% yield and 2.58% ROA, MSME is the highest-return segment in the bank. The pipeline is real: a healthy Rs 1,000 Cr MSME pipeline was cited in Q1 FY26. The key execution risk is whether yield compresses as portfolio scales, which management acknowledged is expected.
The latest quarter's net margin is 24.8%, +2.8 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 9 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 6.8%–25.2%.
Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.
FY26-Q3. Record profit, guidance beats on all fronts — foundation igniting
Why-sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd earned ₹412 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +35.1% year on year. It is the 9th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹1,338 Cr. The 8-year compound rate is 25.2%. That is 24.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹305 Cr.
Jun 26 profit was ₹412 Cr, +35.1% year on year — the 9th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹1,338 Cr (+13.1%), and the 8-year compound rate is 25.2%.
Why profit moved: revenue contributed +19.9% and the margin +2.8 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.
Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +20.6% vs revenue +12.9%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.
FY26-Q3. Record profit, guidance beats on all fronts — foundation igniting
Why-sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.
Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's gross NPA is 0.69% of the loan book in Jun 26, down from 1.22% a year ago. Net of provisions already set aside, 0.17% remains. That is the 11th straight quarter of improvement. Across the 12 quarters held here the book has ranged 0.69% to 1.70%.
Jun 26: gross NPA at 0.69% and net NPA at 0.17%, against 1.22% / 0.33% a year ago. Over the 12 quarters we hold, the book's worst reading was 1.70% and its best is 0.69% — which is the current print. The ladder has now improved for 11 consecutive quarters.
The synthesis: profit growth at a bank is only as good as the book behind it, and this book is healing on a multi-quarter streak. A note on depth: quarterly provisioning detail is not in our numbers yet, so this ladder reads levels and trend, not the cost of the cleanup.
Why the ladder moved: recoveries, write-offs and slippages each play a part, and that split sits below what we hold — the numbers show the healing; the driver mix does not travel with them.
The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book grows, revenue grows with it. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's revenue grew +10.0% in FY26 to ₹5,819 Cr, so the book is growing. The latest quarter ran +19.9% year on year. The net margin on that income is 24.8%, +2.8 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.
FY26 revenue was ₹5,819 Cr, +10.0% on the year, and the latest quarter ran +19.9% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 24.8% this quarter (+2.8 pp YoY) — growth with a widening margin on it.
The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — gross NPA is the loan-quality read we carry here.
Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd earns a return on equity of 14% in FY26. Its trough over the ladder below was 7% in FY18. On the asset side every ₹100 of the balance sheet earned about ₹1.96, which is the return before leverage is applied.
FY26 ROE came in at 14%, recovered from a FY18 trough of 7%. On assets, the latest reading is about 1.96% — every ₹100 the bank deploys earns roughly ₹1.96 a year. That clears the bar a bank must beat for its book value to compound.
Why ROE moved: profit compounded 25.2% a year over 8 years while the equity base grew more slowly — earnings recovering faster than book value builds is what lifts ROE off a trough.
Debt
For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.
A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.
Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.
Foreign institutions added 3.1 points of Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 6.7% of the company. Domestic institutions moved −0.8 points over the same window, to 2.0%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.
Why this happened. CASA Rs 17,365 Cr (+22.35% vs 15% guided), share 28.14% (+170bps). Current Accounts +25.62%, Savings +21.04%. Highest deposit growth in 40 quarters.
The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: +3.1 points over 8 quarters to 6.7%; Domestic institutions: −0.8 points over 8 quarters to 2.0%.
Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (+3.1 points), absorbed on the other side by domestic institutions (−0.8 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.
Why this happened. Eight consecutive quarters of GNPA decline from 1.44% (Jun 2024) to 0.73% (Mar 2026). The stressed book (GNPA + SMA 0/1/2) at 2.02% is cited by management as potentially best-in-industry. PCR at 74.89% (96.14% including technical write-offs) gives buffer for ECL implementation expected in FY27. Credit cost turned effectively zero — Rs 903 Cr cash recovery from upgradations against Rs 129.2 Cr write-offs. This is not just cyclical improvement; it reflects the 108% collateral cover on remaining GNPA and SARFAESI pipeline of Rs 127.52 Cr.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.
Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each ₹1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd trades at 1.3× P/BV, at the pricey end of its own range (95th percentile). Its long-run median P/BV is 1.0×, measured across 3.8 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/BV of 1.3× is at the pricey end of its own range (95th percentile), against a long-run median of 1.0× measured over 3.8 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year book value grew while the price moved +98.1% — the price ran ahead of the book, pushing the multiple up its own range.
The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +22.6%/yr price move, ~+12.4%/yr came from book-value growth and ~+10.2 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus book-value growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.
Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.
Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROE at 13.2% and holding. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.
Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +10.0% | +12.6% | +10.0% | — |
| Profit | +13.1% | +9.1% | +17.3% | — |
| EPS | +13.1% | +9.1% | +14.8% | — |
| Share price | +98.1% | +22.6% | — | — |
4-Factor Sector Score
77.3/100 — rank 1 of 18 in Banks - Private · 100% evidence confidence
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd scores 77.3 out of 100 against the 18 companies it is compared with in Banks - Private, ranking 1. Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 23.3 + 22.6 + 12.7 + 18.7 = 77.3. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Said versus delivered
What Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.
🚨 Cost-to-Income Target Materially Raised · 27 April 2026. In the Oct 2025 call, management made an explicit commitment to maintaining the cost-to-income ratio under 45% going into future quarters, providing analysts a direct operational efficiency anchor for earnings models. In the Apr 2026 call, without adequate explanation, this commitment has been revised upward to 'below 50%' with an expected trend of 46-47%, a meaningful shift that would require analysts to materially revise their cost and profit forecasts. Earlier call (Oct 2025): “This has come down almost 5.5% from the previous quarter, and we are committed to maintaining it under 45% going into the next quarters.” Later call (Apr 2026): “Even with opening more branches and refurbishing others, we have committed to keeping the cost-to-income ratio below 50%. It should trend around 46-47% as we modernize.”
🚨 FY27 Profit Growth Narrative Significantly Downgraded From Prior "Breakout" Guidance · 27 April 2026. In the Oct 2025 call, management explicitly characterized FY27 as a 'breakout year' and directly confirmed approximately 17-23% profit growth for FY27. In the Apr 2026 call, FY27 ROA is guided at 1.9-2% (below FY26's actual 2.05%) and ROE at 13-15% (below FY26's actual 15.03%), which on a roughly 17% balance sheet growth trajectory implies profit growth well below the prior 17-23% range — a material contradiction of the breakout narrative. Earlier call (Oct 2025): “FY”. Later call (Apr 2026): “We are looking at an overall ROA of 1.9-2% for FY27. For ROE, we should be looking at 13-15%.”
Gold Portfolio LTV Jumps Sharply Alongside Newly Introduced Methodology · 27 April 2026. In the Feb 2026 call, management disclosed average gold portfolio LTV at 54%, the primary risk metric for the bank's dominant loan product representing ~46% of advances. In the Apr 2026 call, the same metric is disclosed at 63.25% — a ~9 percentage point apparent increase in a single quarter — with a newly introduced net-versus-gross gold weight methodology note entirely absent from the Q3 disclosure. This combination of an unexplained LTV rise during a period of rising gold prices (which should naturally compress LTV) and a retroactive methodology change creates a material reconciliation concern for risk analysts. Earlier call (Feb 2026): “Average overall portfolio LTV is 54%.” Later call (Apr 2026): “The LTV was 63.25% as of March 31, 2026. The LTV is calculated on the net weight of the gold, not the gross weight. The difference between gross and net weight is about 9.56%.”
FY27 Advances Growth Target Sharply Upgraded Without Explanation · 27 April 2026. In the Feb 2026 call, management guided FY27 advances growth at 16-17% and explicitly framed this as achievable even under an adverse gold price scenario, setting it as a conservative floor. In the Apr 2026 call, without any explanation of what changed, the target was revised to approximately 20%, even as the same call acknowledged new macro headwinds including Middle East conflict and US treasury yield concerns, making the unqualified upward revision inconsistent with the prior conservative framing and the concurrent risk commentary. Earlier call (Feb 2026): “Even if the gold loan price is correct, we should be able to maintain that. And advance growth of 16%-17% next year as well.” Later call (Apr 2026): “For FY27, we are looking at a 16% growth for deposits and we intend to defend an advances growth rate of around 20%.”
Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.
| Company | Score | Price stage | Growth & earnings/35 | Capital efficiency/25 | Valuation/20 | Relative strength/20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltdthis pageTMB | 77.3/100Favorable setup100% evidence | LEADER | 23.3/35 Income 12.9% · PAT 20.5% 100% evidence | 22.6/25 ROA 2% · ROE 14% · GNPA 0.7% 100% evidence | 12.7/20 P/BV 1.27× · P/BV÷ROE 0.09 100% evidence | 18.7/20 RS sector 22.7% · RS bench 36.5% · 1Y 97.8%11 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 23.3 + 22.6 + 12.7 + 18.7 = 77.3 · Decision use: Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence. | ||||||
| 2Karur Vysya Bank LtdKARURVYSYA | 71.2/100Favorable setup100% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 27.2/35 Income 16% · PAT 37% 100% evidence | 22.9/25 ROA 1.8% · ROE 19.1% · GNPA 0.7% 100% evidence | 7.7/20 P/BV 2.27× · P/BV÷ROE 0.12 100% evidence | 13.4/20 RS sector 5.8% · RS bench 18.7% · 1Y 51.4%6 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 27.2 + 22.9 + 7.7 + 13.4 = 71.2 · Decision use: Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence. | ||||||
| 3South Indian Bank LtdSOUTHBANK | 62.2/100Mixed-positive evidence90% evidence | LEADER | 21.7/35 Income 6.9% · PAT 13.5% 95% evidence | 13.4/25 ROA 1.2% · ROE 13.5% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 14.6/20 P/BV 1.01× · P/BV÷ROE 0.07 100% evidence | 12.5/20 RS sector 1.8% · RS bench 14.2% · 1Y 56.6%10 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 21.7 + 13.4 + 14.6 + 12.5 = 62.2 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 4Karnataka Bank LtdKTKBANK | 61.7/100Mixed-positive evidence100% evidence | LEADER | 16.5/35 Income 0.5% · PAT 23.4% 100% evidence | 10.7/25 ROA 1% · ROE 10.4% · GNPA 2.6% 100% evidence | 14.5/20 P/BV 0.89× · P/BV÷ROE 0.09 100% evidence | 20.0/20 RS sector 22.7% · RS bench 37.1% · 1Y 79.9%10 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 16.5 + 10.7 + 14.5 + 20 = 61.7 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 37.1%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation. | ||||||
| 5City Union Bank LtdCUB | 61.0/100Mixed-positive evidence100% evidence | TURNING | 24.7/35 Income 19.8% · PAT 20.5% 100% evidence | 16.6/25 ROA 1.4% · ROE 13.2% · GNPA 1.7% 100% evidence | 10.8/20 P/BV 1.95× · P/BV÷ROE 0.15 100% evidence | 8.9/20 RS sector -6.2% · RS bench 5.7% · 1Y 32.4%6 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 24.7 + 16.6 + 10.8 + 8.9 = 61 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 6Jammu and Kashmir Bank LtdJ&KBANK | 60.0/100Mixed-positive evidence88% evidence | LEADER | 12.8/35 Income 4.8% · PAT 7.2% 86% evidence | 16.2/25 ROA 1.3% · ROE 15.4% · GNPA — 72% evidence | 14.3/20 P/BV 1.01× · P/BV÷ROE 0.07 100% evidence | 16.7/20 RS sector 11.3% · RS bench 24.3% · 1Y 52.1%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 12.8 + 16.2 + 14.3 + 16.7 = 60 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 24.3%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation. | ||||||
| 7DCB Bank LtdDCBBANK | 57.0/100Mixed-positive evidence100% evidence | ASLEEP | 22.8/35 Income 11.5% · PAT 23.1% 100% evidence | 11.4/25 ROA 0.8% · ROE 12% · GNPA 2.4% 100% evidence | 17.4/20 P/BV 0.9× · P/BV÷ROE 0.07 100% evidence | 5.4/20 RS sector -7.2% · RS bench 4.3% · 1Y 43.2%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 22.8 + 11.4 + 17.4 + 5.4 = 57 · Decision use: Acceleration candidate, not a confirmed leader: earnings are strong but sector-relative strength is -7.2% and the one-year return is 43.2%. Do not upgrade until sector-relative strength is above zero and another reported period confirms growth. | ||||||
| 8Dhanlaxmi Bank LtdDHANBANK | 52.9/100Mixed-positive evidence97% evidence | FADING | 25.8/35 Income 21.7% · PAT 32.2% 95% evidence | 8.0/25 ROA 0.5% · ROE 7.2% · GNPA 1.8% 95% evidence | 7.9/20 P/BV 0.84× · P/BV÷ROE 0.12 100% evidence | 11.2/20 RS sector 2.5% · RS bench 15.3% · 1Y 22.3%9 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 25.8 + 8 + 7.9 + 11.2 = 52.9 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 9Federal Bank LtdFEDERALBNK | 52.7/100Mixed-positive evidence75% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 16.1/35 Income 6.5% · PAT 17% 76% evidence | 12.8/25 ROA — · ROE 11.6% · GNPA — 34% evidence | 5.4/20 P/BV 2.17× · P/BV÷ROE 0.19 100% evidence | 18.4/20 RS sector 13.1% · RS bench 26.3% · 1Y 78.9%10 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 16.1 + 12.8 + 5.4 + 18.4 = 52.7 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 26.3%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation. | ||||||
| 10ICICI Bank LtdICICIBANK | 49.9/100Mixed-negative evidence79% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 10.6/35 Income 4% · PAT 5.7% 62% evidence | 19.9/25 ROA 2.1% · ROE 15.9% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 9.7/20 P/BV 2.69× · P/BV÷ROE 0.17 100% evidence | 9.7/20 RS sector -9.9% · RS bench 2.4% · 1Y -1.3%5 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 10.6 + 19.9 + 9.7 + 9.7 = 49.9 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 11RBL Bank LtdRBLBANK | 48.3/100Mixed-negative evidence88% evidence | LEADER | 23.3/35 Income 5.4% · PAT 54.8% 86% evidence | 6.6/25 ROA 0.5% · ROE 5.4% · GNPA — 72% evidence | 4.7/20 P/BV 1.42× · P/BV÷ROE 0.26 100% evidence | 13.7/20 RS sector 4.8% · RS bench 17.9% · 1Y 47.1%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 23.3 + 6.6 + 4.7 + 13.7 = 48.3 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 12Yes Bank LtdYESBANK | 47.2/100Mixed-negative evidence100% evidence | FADING | 22.6/35 Income -0.5% · PAT 37.8% 100% evidence | 12.2/25 ROA 1% · ROE 7.1% · GNPA 1.3% 100% evidence | 7.6/20 P/BV 1.36× · P/BV÷ROE 0.19 100% evidence | 4.8/20 RS sector -9.7% · RS bench 2.2% · 1Y 22.3%10 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 22.6 + 12.2 + 7.6 + 4.8 = 47.2 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 13HDFC Bank LtdHDFCBANK | 46.4/100Mixed-negative evidence84% evidence | ASLEEP | 13.1/35 Income 2.8% · PAT 12.5% 76% evidence | 17.2/25 ROA 1.8% · ROE 13.6% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 14.2/20 P/BV 1.86× · P/BV÷ROE 0.14 100% evidence | 1.9/20 RS sector -29.1% · RS bench -18.8% · 1Y -26.3%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 13.1 + 17.2 + 14.2 + 1.9 = 46.4 · Decision use: Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity. | ||||||
| 14IDFC First Bank LtdIDFCFIRSTB | 42.5/100Mixed-negative evidence82% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 26.4/35 Income 12.3% · PAT 77.3% 86% evidence | 6.0/25 ROA 0.5% · ROE 3.8% · GNPA — 72% evidence | 3.5/20 P/BV 1.52× · P/BV÷ROE 0.4 100% evidence | 6.6/20 RS sector -17.6% · RS bench 10.8% · 1Y 24%8 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 26.4 + 6 + 3.5 + 6.6 = 42.5 · Decision use: Acceleration candidate, not a confirmed leader: earnings are strong but sector-relative strength is -17.6% and the one-year return is 24%. Do not upgrade until sector-relative strength is above zero and another reported period confirms growth. | ||||||
| 15Kotak Mahindra Bank LtdKOTAKBANK | 37.5/100Mixed-negative evidence93% evidence | ASLEEP | 8.7/35 Income 5.7% · PAT 6% 100% evidence | 16.3/25 ROA 1.9% · ROE 11.4% · GNPA — 72% evidence | 8.7/20 P/BV 2.15× · P/BV÷ROE 0.19 100% evidence | 3.8/20 RS sector -16.3% · RS bench -4.8% · 1Y 0.2%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 8.7 + 16.3 + 8.7 + 3.8 = 37.5 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 16Axis Bank LtdAXISBANK | 37.3/100Mixed-negative evidence93% evidence | ASLEEP | 6.2/35 Income 5.6% · PAT -0.2% 100% evidence | 15.2/25 ROA 1.6% · ROE 13.1% · GNPA — 72% evidence | 14.2/20 P/BV 1.71× · P/BV÷ROE 0.13 100% evidence | 1.7/20 RS sector -16% · RS bench -5.1% · 1Y 15.1%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 6.2 + 15.2 + 14.2 + 1.7 = 37.3 · Decision use: Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity. | ||||||
| 17IndusInd Bank LtdINDUSINDBK | 32.4/100Adverse evidence100% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 12.5/35 Income -6.4% · PAT 31.1% 100% evidence | 2.3/25 ROA 0.2% · ROE 1.4% · GNPA 3.3% 100% evidence | 3.2/20 P/BV 1.21× · P/BV÷ROE 0.89 100% evidence | 14.4/20 RS sector 2.1% · RS bench 14.9% · 1Y 30.5%7 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 12.5 + 2.3 + 3.2 + 14.4 = 32.4 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 14.9%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation. | ||||||
| 18Bandhan Bank LtdBANDHANBNK | 23.3/100Adverse evidence100% evidence | FADING | 8.7/35 Income -0.2% · PAT -34% 100% evidence | 5.5/25 ROA 0.6% · ROE 4.9% · GNPA 3.1% 100% evidence | 6.3/20 P/BV 1.1× · P/BV÷ROE 0.23 100% evidence | 2.8/20 RS sector -11.2% · RS bench 0.1% · 1Y 5.7%8 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 8.7 + 5.5 + 6.3 + 2.8 = 23.3 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
Missing observations are not scored as bad. Their missing weight lowers confidence and pulls the final score toward neutral. Financial companies use P/BV÷ROE and asset quality; PEG, industrial OPM and ROCE are excluded. Under relative strength, one mark per week shows the last 12 weeks: a mark is filled where the company led NIFTY 500 by 5% or more over the 13 weeks ending that week, which is the same test used everywhere on this site. Price stage places the company on the same six-step curve the sector itself is placed on — basing, turning, breaking out, leader, fading, asleep — read from how many weeks running it has led NIFTY 500 and whether that lead is widening or shrinking. It describes where the PRICE stands, not the earnings trajectory and not a recommendation, and it is left blank for a company whose weekly history is too short or too stale to read.
Frequently asked questions
What is Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's share price today?
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd trades at ₹849, +98.1% over the past year. The company is valued at ₹13,450 Cr. The stock sits at 94% of its 52-week range of ₹425–₹876, +26.0% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a confirmed uptrend, 40 weeks in. — as of 14 August 2026.
What were Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's latest quarterly results?
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd reported total income of ₹1,662 Cr and net profit of ₹412 Cr for the Jun 26 quarter. Income rose 19.9% and profit rose 35.1% year on year. Earnings per share were ₹25.99. The net margin was 24.8%, 2.8 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 14 August 2026.
What is Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's revenue?
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd reported revenue of ₹1,662 Cr in the Jun 26 quarter, +19.9% year on year. For the full FY26 fiscal year, revenue was ₹5,819 Cr (+10.0%). Over the last 8 years revenue compounded at 7.6% a year. — as of 14 August 2026.
What is Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's profit?
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd earned ₹412 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +35.1% year on year — the 9th straight quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹1,338 Cr. The net margin ran 24.8% in the latest quarter. — as of 14 August 2026.
What is Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's market cap?
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's market capitalisation is ₹13,450 Cr at a share price of ₹849. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 14 August 2026.
What is Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's P/BV ratio?
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd trades at a P/BV of 1.3×, at the 95th percentile of its own 4-year range, against a long-run median of 1.0×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 14 August 2026.
Does Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd pay a dividend?
Yes — Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's dividend payout was 15% of profit in FY26, and it recorded a payout in 7 of its last 9 reported fiscal years. This page holds the payout ratio, not a per-share amount. — as of 14 August 2026.
Is Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd overvalued?
On its own history, Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd looks expensive: its P/BV of 1.3× sits at the 95th percentile of its 4-year range (long-run median 1.0×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. — as of 14 August 2026.
Is Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd growing?
Yes — Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd is growing: latest-quarter revenue +19.9% year on year, profit +35.1%, and the net margin +2.8 pp at 24.8%. The 8-year compound rates are 7.6% (revenue) and 25.2% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 14 August 2026.
How is Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd performing?
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd is in a confirmed uptrend, 40 weeks in. Its latest quarter's income rose 19.9% and profit rose 35.1% year on year. Against the NIFTY 500 it has been ahead on a trailing-13-week view for 7 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 14 August 2026.
What stage is Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd in?
Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROE at 13.2% and holding. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +12.9% latest, profit growth +20.5% latest, eps growth +20.3% latest) plus the ROE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 14 August 2026.
Is Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd in an uptrend?
Yes — the price is in a confirmed uptrend (week 40 of stage 2), trading +26.0% versus its 200-day average and at 94% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 14 August 2026.
Is Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd beating the market?
On recent form, yes — Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 7 straight weeks, the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 3.9 years the stock moved +72% against the NIFTY 500's +54% — ahead of the index over the full window. — as of 14 August 2026.
Will Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's share price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd. What it measures instead: the share price is ₹849, the price is in a confirmed uptrend 40 weeks in. Its P/BV of 1.3× sits at the 95th percentile of its own 4-year range. — as of 14 August 2026.
Is Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's loan book healthy?
Gross NPA is 0.69% of Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's loan book, down from 1.22% a year ago — the 11th straight quarter of improvement, and net NPA stands at 0.17%. Falling NPAs are a loan book healing; rising NPAs are damage arriving — as of 14 August 2026.
Where is Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd in its business cycle?
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's FY26 net margin was 23.0%, against a 9-year band of 6.8%–25.2%: mid-band by its own history — neither the peak that precedes mean-reversion nor the trough that precedes recovery. The latest quarter ran 24.8%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 14 August 2026.
What could break the Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd story?
The sharpest disagreement: the price moved +98.1% in a year while annual EPS moved +13.1% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 14 August 2026.
Is Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd's price has outrun its earnings. +98.1% in a year against EPS +13.1% — the market is paying now for delivery later. The sharpest open question: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 14 August 2026.