Greenpanel Industries Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Greenpanel Industries Ltd trades at ₹193, in a downtrend and 36 weeks into that stage. That is −11.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 16% of a 52-week range of ₹171 to ₹313. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (1 week and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 36 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹193 it trades −11.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 16% of its 52-week range (₹171–₹313).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 6.8 years the stock moved +455% while the NIFTY 500 moved +141% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (1 week and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-24) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Greenpanel Industries Ltd trades at 16.6× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 18% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 22.9×, measured across 5.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 16.6× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 18% of the time, against a long-run median of 22.9× measured over 5.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −49.5% against a −31.2% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the −5.2%/yr price move, ~+1.1%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−6.3 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Greenpanel Industries Ltd reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — profit and EPS growth are shrinking (profit growth −102.8% latest against +6.6% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE slipping at 0.9%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.

4-Factor Sector Score

31.1/100 — rank 5 of 5 in Plywood Boards/Laminates · 86% evidence confidence

Greenpanel Industries Ltd scores 31.1 out of 100 against the 5 companies it is compared with in Plywood Boards/Laminates, ranking 5. Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 4.1 + 12.3 + 14.7 + 0 = 31.1. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Greenpanel Industries Ltd reported ₹416 Cr of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +15.9% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. The last full year, FY25, came in at ₹1,436 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,515 Cr.

FY25 revenue came in at ₹1,436 Cr (−8.4% on the year). The latest quarter (Dec 25) printed ₹416 Cr, +15.9% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +3.9% over the last 4 quarters against −3.1%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Greenpanel Industries Ltd's operating margin is 10.0% in the Dec 25 quarter, +5.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 9.0% to 27.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 10.0%, +5.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 9.0%–27.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −4.3 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.0 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Greenpanel Industries Ltd earned ₹10.0 Cr of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +25.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹72.0 Cr. That is 2.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹8.0 Cr. 2 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Dec 25 profit was ₹10.0 Cr, +25.0% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed ₹72.0 Cr (−49.7%).

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +15.9% and the margin +5.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −107.6% vs revenue +4.5%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 117% of Greenpanel Industries Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was ₹78.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹72.0 Cr of profit. After ₹352 Cr of capital spending, ₹−274 Cr was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of ₹78.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹72.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−274 Cr after ₹352 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 117% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 117%: the cash cycle held roughly steady between FY20 and FY25 — so conversion tracks profitability rather than the cycle.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 3.4× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Greenpanel Industries Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 58 days in FY25, down from 60 days in FY20. Capital spending ran ₹754 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY25 sales of ₹1,436 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹3.9 Cr, so roughly ₹228 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY25: debtors at 11 days, inventory at 98 days — roughly 3.2 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 58 days, tighter than FY20's 60.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 98 days to sell; customers pay about 11 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 51 days — netting out to the 58-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY25 sales of ₹1,436 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹3.9 Cr — so the 58-day loop keeps roughly ₹228 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹754 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹222 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹11.0 Cr (FY25) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Greenpanel Industries Ltd earns a ROCE of 4% in FY25. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −11.1 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 5.0% net margin on 0.67× asset turns.

FY25 ROCE is 4%.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 5.0% net margin × 0.67× asset turns × 1.54× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 5.2% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 0.9% − 12.0% = a −11.1 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Greenpanel Industries Ltd carries total debt of ₹370 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,356 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.27 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.33 in FY22 to 0.27 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹370 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,356 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.27. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.33 (FY22) to 0.27 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 1.7 points of Greenpanel Industries Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 28.5% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −1.2 points over the same window, to 0.9%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +1.7 points over 8 quarters to 28.5%; Foreign institutions: −1.2 points over 8 quarters to 0.9%; Promoters: +0.1 points over 8 quarters to 53.3%.

Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (+1.7 points), absorbed on the other side by foreign institutions (−1.2 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Greenpanel Industries Ltd: the Z-score reads 4.13. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 4.13 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 4.13.

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