Gokul Agro Resources Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Gokul Agro Resources Ltd trades at ₹227, in a confirmed uptrend and 24 weeks into that stage. That is +9.5% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 81% of a 52-week range of ₹153 to ₹244. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 4 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 24 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹227 it trades +9.5% versus its 200-day average and sits at 81% of its 52-week range (₹153–₹244).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +3,623% while the NIFTY 500 moved +259% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 4 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Gokul Agro Resources Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 17 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: MID_EXPANSION. Still open: 2–3% OPM leaves almost no buffer; a 50bps commodity-price squeeze can cut PAT 15–25%.

Our read, 17 May 2026. A high-volume commodity processor scaling into its first major capex cycle — thesis depends on OPM holding above 2.5% while a 46% capacity addition lands.

From the numbers. PE at the 80th percentile of its 10-year range (20.3x vs 10Y trough 9.8x and peak 33.2x). Fully valued relative to own history. The current cycle has expanded from a trough of 9.8x (Sep 2020) over 5+ years. EPS growth…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 24 — above its 200-day line, relative strength rising.

From the research. A high-volume commodity processor scaling into its first major capex cycle — thesis depends on OPM holding above 2.5% while a 46% capacity addition lands.

🚨 Where they disagree. PE at the 80th percentile of its 10-year range (20.3x vs 10Y trough 9.8x and peak 33.2x). Fully valued relative to own history. The current cycle has expanded from a trough of 9.8x (Sep 2020) over 5+ years. EPS growth over FY24–FY26 (₹4.60 → ₹8.32 → ₹12.52) is the dominant driver of price appreciation — not multiple expansion.

What is proven. A high-volume commodity processor scaling into its first major capex cycle — thesis depends on OPM holding above 2.5% while a 46% capacity addition lands.

What is not proven yet. 2–3% OPM leaves almost no buffer; a 50bps commodity-price squeeze can cut PAT 15–25%.

The test written in advance. Commodity price volatility compressing OPM below 2.5% — Commodity price volatility compressing OPM below 2.5% Quarterly OPM relative to 2.5% floor; palm and soy futures prices by the next result.

The test written in advance. Capex-debt overhang before capacity generates revenue — Capex-debt overhang before capacity generates revenue Interest expense trends and quarterly debt levels in balance sheet filings by the next result.

What the company does. Q4 FY26 net profit jumped 144.1% YoY to ₹118.92 Cr on a 90bps OPM improvement (2.24% → 3.14%), the highest quarterly margin on record. Board approved ₹430 Cr capex to add 2,600 MT per day (46% capacity increase) across existing plants, targeted within 12–18 months. PE at 80th percentile of 10-year history (20.3x); the re-rating requires sustained margin delivery — a commodity-price squeeze erases the case.

Lever 6 · Order-book wins — BUILDING. Board approved ₹430 Cr to add 2,600 MT/day (46% from current 5,650 MT/day) across existing plants; ₹12.5 Cr solar project at Krishnapatnam embedded. What proves it keeps working: Capacity Expansion (46% addition over 12–18 months). It stops working if Quarterly OPM relative to 2.5% floor; palm and soy futures prices.

Lever 15 · Market-share gains — BUILDING. FY26 total volume up 13% YoY to 19.2 lakh MT; Mangalore refinery (Dec 2024, ₹105.53 Cr) opens southwestern markets previously unserved. What proves it keeps working: Volume Growth + Southwestern Market Expansion. It stops working if Quarterly OPM relative to 2.5% floor; palm and soy futures prices.

Sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Gokul Agro Resources Ltd reported ₹5,282 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +7.3% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 20.8% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹24,077 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹24,434 Cr.

Why this happened. The capacity addition is the inflection point in the forward thesis. Current capacity utilization was above 75% at 5,550 TPD in Dec 2024 before the Mangalore addition. Adding 2,600 MT/day brings total to approximately 8,250 MT/day. This is a 12–18 month build; capex debt will accrue before incremental revenue materializes — creating the J-curve risk in the near term.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹24,077 Cr (+23.1% on the year), capping 10 years at 20.8% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹5,282 Cr, +7.3% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +21.3% growth against the decade's 20.8% — the current year is running in line with its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +21.1% over the last 4 quarters against +24.8%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +59.5% vs +59.7%/yr — stabilising.

FY26-Q3. Revenue of ₹6,314 Cr (+26.6% YoY) was the highest in FY26 by absolute level. PAT of ₹77.7 Cr rose 7.2% YoY from ₹72.5 Cr in Q3 FY25. Operating margin contracted sequentially as input cost pressures resurfaced. Interest expense held at ₹46 Cr. Results filed under Regulation 47 with no concall.

Why-sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Gokul Agro Resources Ltd's operating margin is 3.9% in the Jun 26 quarter, +1.2 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 11 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 1.4% to 2.8%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 3.9%, +1.2 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 11 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 1.4%–2.8%, and FY26's 2.8% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +1.1 pp year on year while gross margin went +1.7 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

FY26-Q3. Revenue of ₹6,314 Cr (+26.6% YoY) was the highest in FY26 by absolute level. PAT of ₹77.7 Cr rose 7.2% YoY from ₹72.5 Cr in Q3 FY25. Operating margin contracted sequentially as input cost pressures resurfaced. Interest expense held at ₹46 Cr. Results filed under Regulation 47 with no concall.

Why-sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Gokul Agro Resources Ltd earned ₹123 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +70.8% year on year. It is the 10th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹369 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 45.0%. That is 2.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹72.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹123 Cr, +70.8% year on year — the 10th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹369 Cr (+50.0%), and the 10-year compound rate is 45.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +7.3% and the margin +1.2 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +66.1% vs revenue +21.3%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

FY26-Q3. Revenue of ₹6,314 Cr (+26.6% YoY) was the highest in FY26 by absolute level. PAT of ₹77.7 Cr rose 7.2% YoY from ₹72.5 Cr in Q3 FY25. Operating margin contracted sequentially as input cost pressures resurfaced. Interest expense held at ₹46 Cr. Results filed under Regulation 47 with no concall.

Why-sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 153% of Gokul Agro Resources Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹325 Cr of operating cash against ₹369 Cr of profit. After ₹106 Cr of capital spending, ₹219 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹325 Cr against reported profit of ₹369 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹219 Cr after ₹106 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 153% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 153%: the cash cycle held roughly steady between FY21 and FY26 — so conversion tracks profitability rather than the cycle.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 4.6× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Gokul Agro Resources Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 4 days in FY26, up from −3 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹661 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹24,077 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹66.0 Cr, so roughly ₹264 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 9 days, inventory at 37 days — roughly 1.2 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 4 days, looser than FY21's −3.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 37 days to sell; customers pay about 9 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 43 days — netting out to the 4-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹24,077 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹66.0 Cr — so the 4-day loop keeps roughly ₹264 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹661 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹143 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹49.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Gokul Agro Resources Ltd earns a ROCE of 37% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 17% in FY18. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +22.0 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 1.5% net margin on 4.89× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 37%, recovered from a FY18 trough of 17% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 1.5% net margin × 4.89× asset turns × 3.46× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 25.4% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 34.0% − 12.0% = a +22.0 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every rupee reinvested creates more than a rupee of value — the engine compounds.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Gokul Agro Resources Ltd carries total debt of ₹589 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,423 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.41. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.65 in FY22 to 0.41 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹589 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,423 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.41. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.65 (FY22) to 0.41 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions added 1.1 points of Gokul Agro Resources Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 1.9% of the company. Promoters moved +0.6 points over the same window, to 74.2%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: +1.1 points over 8 quarters to 1.9%; Promoters: +0.6 points over 8 quarters to 74.2%; Domestic institutions: +0.1 points over 8 quarters to 0.1%.

Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (+1.1 points), alongside promoters (+0.6 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Gokul Agro Resources Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Gokul Agro Resources Ltd trades at 15.9× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (61st percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 13.8×, measured across 10.0 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 15.9× is mid-range by its own standards (61st percentile), against a long-run median of 13.8× measured over 10.0 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +50.5% against a +25.4% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +63.7%/yr price move, ~+48.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+14.8 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +41.5%/yr price move, ~+45.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−3.8 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 15 June 2026 price, Gokul Agro Resources Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 9.5% a year. Profit itself has compounded 45.0% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 15.9× P/E, the 61st percentile of its own 10-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is unremarkable against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 15 June 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Gokul Agro Resources Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 40.8% and holding. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

4-Factor Sector Score

66.1/100 — rank 2 of 5 in Edible Oils, Agro Processing · 100% evidence confidence

Gokul Agro Resources Ltd scores 66.1 out of 100 against the 5 companies it is compared with in Edible Oils, Agro Processing, ranking 2. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 20.5 + 16.3 + 13.4 + 15.9 = 66.1. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

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