BGR Energy Systems Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

BGR Energy Systems Ltd trades at ₹288, in a confirmed uptrend and 83 weeks into that stage. That is −1.9% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 43% of a 52-week range of ₹172 to ₹444. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (3 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 83 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹288 it trades −1.9% versus its 200-day average and sits at 43% of its 52-week range (₹172–₹444).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +180% while the NIFTY 500 moved +276% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (3 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-10) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

BGR Energy Systems Ltd trades at 9.1× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 16% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 18.9×, measured across 3.9 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 9.1× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 16% of the time, against a long-run median of 18.9× measured over 3.9 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +70.7%/yr price move, ~+21.0%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+49.7 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

BGR Energy Systems Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 8 quarters across 1 curve, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

The latest quarter’s profit carries a one-off item larger than the operating base, so the profit curve is shown but does not vote in the stage call.

The return-on-capital curve is not shown — net worth is negative, so a return on capital is not a meaningful number in any basis. This is a distressed balance sheet, and the stage is read from the growth curves alone.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

4-Factor Sector Score

29.6/100 — rank 7 of 8 in Infra - Engineering - General · 63% evidence confidence

BGR Energy Systems Ltd scores 29.6 out of 100 against the 8 companies it is compared with in Infra - Engineering - General, ranking 7. Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is -8.7%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 5.1 + 0.6 + 10 + 13.9 = 29.6. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

BGR Energy Systems Ltd reported ₹16.0 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, −82.0% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at −21.2% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹300 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹227 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹300 Cr (−33.6% on the year), capping 10 years at −21.2% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹16.0 Cr, −82.0% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −31.3% growth against the decade's −21.2% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −38.3% over the last 4 quarters against −53.3%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

BGR Energy Systems Ltd's operating margin is −648.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, −529.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −195.0% to 11.0%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is −648.0%, −529.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −195.0%–11.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −528.8 pp year on year while gross margin went −130.9 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

BGR Energy Systems Ltd posted a net loss of ₹223 Cr in the Jun 26 quarter. That quarter carries a one-off item larger than its own revenue, so the year-on-year figure is an artefact rather than a trading result. The full FY26 year was a loss of ₹1,292 Cr. That loss is 1,393.8% of the quarter's revenue.

Jun 26 profit was ₹−223 Cr, null year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹−1,292 Cr (null).

🚨 Read this profit with care: at ₹−223 Cr it is larger than the whole quarter's revenue of ₹16.0 Cr — no operating business earns more than it sells, so this is a one-off item (a debt-to-equity conversion, a tax write-back or an asset sale), not money the business earned. The underlying operations are running at −648.0% operating margin; the year-on-year jump and any P/E built on this number are artefacts of the one-off, not a real earnings turn.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 780% of BGR Energy Systems Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹−23.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹−1,292 Cr of profit. After ₹−16.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹−7.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹−23.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹−1,292 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−7.0 Cr after ₹−16.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 780% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 780%: the cash cycle tightened 169 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

BGR Energy Systems Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs −572 days in FY26, down from −403 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹−29.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹300 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹0.8 Cr, so roughly ₹−470 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 106 days, inventory at 6 days — roughly 0.2 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of −572 days, tighter than FY21's −403.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 6 days to sell; customers pay about 106 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 684 days — netting out to the −572-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹300 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹0.8 Cr — so the −572-day loop keeps roughly ₹−470 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹−29.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹37.0 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.⚠ unverified

BGR Energy Systems Ltd earns a ROCE of −27% in FY26. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −154.7 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is −430.7% net margin on 0.07× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is −27%.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): −430.7% net margin × 0.07× asset turns × −1.51× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 45.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: −142.7% − 12.0% = a −154.7 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.⚠ unverified

BGR Energy Systems Ltd's net worth is negative — it owes more than it owns — so a debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful here. On the annual view that ratio went from 3.50 in FY22 to −1.56 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹4,535 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹−2,903 Cr — a debt-to-equity of −1.56. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 3.50 (FY22) to −1.56 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of BGR Energy Systems Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Foreign institutions moved −0.2 points over the same window, to 0.0%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: −0.3 points over 8 quarters to 0.0%; Foreign institutions: −0.2 points over 8 quarters to 0.0%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 51.0%.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

BGR Energy Systems Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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