Bajaj Auto Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Bajaj Auto Ltd trades at ₹11,700, in a confirmed uptrend and 47 weeks into that stage. That is +17.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 100% of a 52-week range of ₹8,680 to ₹11,700. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 4 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 47 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹11,700 it trades +17.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 100% of its 52-week range (₹8,680–₹11,700).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +423% while the NIFTY 500 moved +284% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 4 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Bajaj Auto Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 17 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: MID_EXPANSION. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 19 July 2026.

Our read, 17 May 2026. Record FY26 platform being tested by Q1 FY27 demand softness — premium and export moats determine whether the new earnings base holds.

From the numbers. PE at 76th percentile (1.4x median of 20.48x) — not compressed; yoy trend CONTRACTING (-8.15% smoothed) driven by accelerating EPS rather than price decline. FII steadily selling (14.53% Mar24 to 9.66% Sep25) offset by…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 47 — above its 200-day line, relative strength rising.

From the research. Record FY26 platform being tested by Q1 FY27 demand softness — premium and export moats determine whether the new earnings base holds.

🚨 Where they disagree. PE at 76th percentile (1.4x median of 20.48x) — not compressed; yoy trend CONTRACTING (-8.15% smoothed) driven by accelerating EPS rather than price decline. FII steadily selling (14.53% Mar24 to 9.66% Sep25) offset by DII buying (8.47% to 12.78%). Cycle position MID_EXPANSION with HEALTHY_EXPANSION EPS setup. The valuation risk is real — but EPS momentum (FY26 EPS 384 vs FY25 262, +46%) means the stock is cheaper than it looks on trailing earnings.

What is proven. Record FY26 platform being tested by Q1 FY27 demand softness — premium and export moats determine whether the new earnings base holds.

What is not proven yet. Steel +15%, copper +20%, aluminum and noble metals +35-45% — 3.5-4% of revenue cost impact in Q1 FY27; only 40% covered by April 1 pricing; three commodity refreshes in 4 weeks signals ongoing volatility.

Layer 1 read, 19 July 2026 — KEEP. A record FY26 quality franchise, but priced in the upper third of its own history and heading into a demand-and-commodity soft patch.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. Q1 FY27 (Aug 2026) OPM holding >=18.5% AND motorcycle-industry growth recovering toward double digits [milestones M1/M3] would flip it back toward P1 by proving the air-pocket transient; conversely OPM breaking below 18.5% with the KTM drag exceeding Rs 300cr would break the new-earnings-base thesis toward DROP.

Layer 2 read, 19 July 2026 — BENCH. Great franchise, wrong entry: full-price on a record base, this quarter's profit is other-income-flattered, and the sector is flooding capacity.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. Two clean consecutive quarters where PAT growth is OPERATING-led (OPM stable/rising, other_income immaterial) with OCF converting toward 1.0x PAT and the PE de-rating back below its median percentile on the new base — that flips BENCH->ADVANCE. Conversely, a confirmed multi-quarter volume air-pocket + further OPM compression from the commodity squeeze pushes toward DROP.

The test written in advance. Commodity Inflation Spike (Noble Metals/Copper) — 3.5-4% Revenue Impact Q1 FY27 — Commodity Inflation Spike (Noble Metals/Copper) — 3.5-4% Revenue Impact Q1 FY27 Q1 FY27 OPM vs management's commodity commentary in concall by the next result.

The test written in advance. Domestic Motorcycle Industry Demand Moderation — Domestic Motorcycle Industry Demand Moderation Monthly motorcycle industry data May-June-July 2026; track whether 7-9% sustained or recovers by the next result.

The test written in advance. Management Consistency Gaps — Three Active Red Flags — Management Consistency Gaps — Three Active Red Flags Q1 FY27 concall — does management acknowledge prior guidance misses or deflect? by the next result.

Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. 600k units in Q4 FY26 (+25% YoY), USD 2.2 billion annual — LatAm all-time highs for 11 consecutive quarters; Nigeria recovering; Brazil reaching #5 in 3 years; Mexico with structural tariff advantage. What proves it keeps working: Exports Structural Diversification (220k/month target). It stops working if Q1 FY27 OPM vs management's commodity commentary in concall.

Lever 3 · Management change — BUILDING. Pulsar 150cc+ growing 2x industry rate; 10 new variants launched Oct-Mar period now 50% of domestic motorcycle sales; KTM-Triumph 43,000 units Q4 (+43% YoY, highest ever); Triumph crossed 1 lakh lifetime milestone. What proves it keeps working: Premiumization — 150cc+ and KTM-Triumph Portfolio. It stops working if Q1 FY27 OPM vs management's commodity commentary in concall.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. Electric 2W+3W combined hit double-digit EBITDA margins for first time in FY26; Chetak 23% market share (+170bps QoQ); 1 lakh retail in Q4 — capacity maxed at 50k/month; EV-3W at #1 position throughout Q4. What proves it keeps working: Electric Portfolio at Profitability Inflection (Chetak + EV-3W). It stops working if Q1 FY27 OPM vs management's commodity commentary in concall.

Lever 6 · Order-book wins — BUILDING. BACL AUM Rs 19,000 Cr (doubled FY26), PAT Rs 665 Cr (vs Rs 58 Cr FY25, ~12x growth), ROE 23% — now a material earnings contributor requiring no further capital infusion. What proves it keeps working: BACL Financial Services Scaling. It stops working if Q1 FY27 OPM vs management's commodity commentary in concall.

Sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Bajaj Auto Ltd reported ₹21,689 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +65.1% year on year. That is the 11th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 10.8% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹62,905 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹71,460 Cr.

Why this happened. 600k units in Q4 FY26 (+25% YoY), USD 2.2 billion annual — LatAm all-time highs for 11 consecutive quarters; Nigeria recovering; Brazil reaching #5 in 3 years; Mexico with structural tariff advantage.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹62,905 Cr (+23.4% on the year), capping 10 years at 10.8% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹21,689 Cr, +65.1% year on year — the 11th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +37.0% growth against the decade's 10.8% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +36.9% over the last 4 quarters against +24.0%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +52.2% vs +20.1%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Bajaj Auto Ltd's operating margin is 21.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 16.0% to 21.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. The EV portfolio crossed a structural threshold in FY26: combined electric 2W and 3W achieved double-digit EBITDA margins — meaning the transition is now margin-accretive, not dilutive. Chetak went from 12% market share (Q1 FY25) to 23% (Q4 FY27), with 1 lakh retail in a single quarter. Capacity is the constraint now, not demand — expansion underway. The e-three-wheeler business is the highest-conviction segment: non-metro mobility explosion, women's participation, shared commute adoption described by management as 'not stoppable'. BACL three-wheeler financing +49% volume FY26 enables adoption. EV represents 20%+ of domestic revenue.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 21.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 16.0%–21.0%, and FY26's 21.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −0.4 pp year on year while gross margin went +2.5 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Bajaj Auto Ltd earned ₹3,189 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +44.3% year on year. It is the 5th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹10,574 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 10.0%. That is 14.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹2,210 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹3,189 Cr, +44.3% year on year — the 5th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹10,574 Cr (+44.4%), and the 10-year compound rate is 10.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +65.1% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +54.1% vs revenue +37.0%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 30% of Bajaj Auto Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹2,597 Cr of operating cash against ₹10,574 Cr of profit. After ₹10,389 Cr of capital spending, ₹−7,792 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹2,597 Cr against reported profit of ₹10,574 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−7,792 Cr after ₹10,389 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 30% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at 30%: the cash cycle stretched 21 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 21 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Bajaj Auto Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs −1 days in FY26, up from −22 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹11,979 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹62,905 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹172 Cr, so roughly ₹−172 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 20 days, inventory at 54 days — roughly 1.8 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of −1 days, looser than FY21's −22.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 54 days to sell; customers pay about 20 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 76 days — netting out to the −1-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹62,905 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹172 Cr — so the −1-day loop keeps roughly ₹−172 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹11,979 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹1,424 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹1,521 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Bajaj Auto Ltd earns a ROCE of 28% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 23% in FY22. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 16.8% net margin on 0.82× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 28%, recovered from a FY22 trough of 23% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 16.8% net margin × 0.82× asset turns × 1.98× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 27.3% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Bajaj Auto Ltd carries ₹22,713 Cr of borrowings against ₹38,832 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.58. Operating profit covers the interest bill 11×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹121 Cr to ₹22,713 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹11,979 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹22,713 Cr against equity of ₹38,832 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.58. Operating profit covers the interest bill 11×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹121 Cr to ₹22,713 Cr while capital spending ran ₹11,979 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 5.2 points of Bajaj Auto Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 9.0% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +4.7 points over the same window, to 13.4%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

Why this happened. The 150cc+ segment is Bajaj's structural moat. Sequential market share gains across all geographies (J&K to Tamil Nadu, Northeast to Rajasthan) even as the overall market moderates. The product refresh cycle — 10 new Pulsar variants — is already contributing 50% of domestic motorcycle revenue. KTM-Triumph premium segment is a separate earnings layer with 43,000 units in Q4 at the highest-ever quarterly volume. July 2026 sees another product launch wave in 125cc and 150cc+ ahead of festive season. Margin mix: sports motorcycles, KTM, and export-heavy mix (35% of volume, higher gross margins overseas) are the key EBITDA accretion engines.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −5.2 points over 8 quarters to 9.0%; Domestic institutions: +4.7 points over 8 quarters to 13.4%; Promoters: −0.1 points over 8 quarters to 55.0%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −5.2 points against domestic institutions +4.7 points over 8 quarters, with promoters holding steady — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Bajaj Auto Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Bajaj Auto Ltd trades at 27.3× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (77th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 20.6×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 27.3× is at the pricey end of its own range (77th percentile), against a long-run median of 20.6× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +46.6% against a +42.4% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +25.1%/yr price move, ~+16.8%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+8.3 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +15.1%/yr price move, ~+11.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+3.8 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Bajaj Auto Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −5.0% at the trough to +52.2%, a 4-quarter improving streak, ROCE holding at 28.0%. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

63.8/100 — rank 1 of 8 in Auto - 2 & 3 Wheelers · 82% evidence confidence

Bajaj Auto Ltd scores 63.8 out of 100 against the 8 companies it is compared with in Auto - 2 & 3 Wheelers, ranking 1. Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 22.8 + 19 + 8.6 + 13.4 = 63.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Bajaj Auto Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Export Run-Rate Target Raised Without Reconciliation · 21 July 2026. In May 2026, management targeted exports at 220,000 units per month for the quarter. In July 2026, it raised the target to beyond 250,000 per month for the same quarter and thereafter, a roughly 14% revision that was not explicitly reconciled or tied to a specific new assumption.

🚨 Joint KTM-Triumph Showroom Milestone Missed · 21 July 2026. In January 2026, management said the joint KTM-Triumph showroom network would exceed 100 outlets by March. By July 2026, management reported almost 90 outlets operational, indicating that the stated milestone was not achieved by the deadline, with no explanation for the shortfall or delay.

Domestic Motorcycle Industry Growth Outlook Halved · 6 May 2026. In the Jan 2026 call, management projected motorcycle industry growth of 12-15% going forward, expressing high confidence based on strong December and January data. The May 2026 call more than halved this near-term expectation to 7-9%, citing new headwinds including LPG shortages, April price hikes eroding GST benefits, manpower migration, and Middle East disruptions. While these new developments are real, the magnitude of the downward revision - from a bullish 12-15% to sub-10% within four months - would materially affect domestic volume and revenue models built on the Jan 2026 outlook.

KTM Line-by-Line Consolidation Commitment Not Delivered as Stated · 6 May 2026. In the Jan 2026 call, management made an unqualified commitment that KTM would be fully consolidated on a line-by-line basis starting with Q4 FY26, with no caveat on timing or methodology. The May 2026 call instead presents a complex partial accounting treatment and confirms that going forward, KTM results will be consolidated with a one-quarter lag, attributed to BMAG/KTM AG publishing half-yearly under European listing regulations. This half-yearly reporting calendar was a pre-existing structural constraint at the time the Jan 2026 commitment was made, making the unqualified promise difficult to reconcile.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions