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Home›Stocks›Aye Finance Ltd
AYEAye Finance LtdNBFC - Others
₹173

Aye Finance Ltd (AYE) — share price & stock analysis

From losses in FY22 to record profits — the comeback is real, the price knows it.

TURNAROUND
STAGE 2 UPTREND
TURNAROUND
DEEP CYCLICALEXPANSION
₹4,277 Cr
Market cap
1.68×
P/BV
9.2%
ROE
By Sector Alpha Research · machine-compiled from Screener.in data · Updated 1 July 2026 · Sources: Screener.in company page, NSE quote · Not investment advice
The 30-second answer

Aye Finance Ltd (AYE) trades at ₹173 as of 1 July 2026. The machine reads this as turnaround: from losses in FY22 to record profits — the comeback is real, the price knows it. the price is in Stage 2 — advancing, 5 weeks in; the business cycle reads DEEP CYCLICAL / EXPANSION. Fundamentals-momentum score: 89/100 (all improving).

Data as of 1 July 2026 · every number traces to its Screener source column · not investment advice.

Key numbers
Market cap
₹4,277 Cr
P/BV
1.68×
ROE
9.2%
Book value / share
₹103
Revenue (FY26)
₹1,815 Cr
Profit after tax (FY26)
₹194 Cr
Weinstein stage
Stage 2 (5 weeks)
Data as of
1 July 2026
MOMENTUM OF THE FUNDAMENTALS
89/100
ALL IMPROVING
Levels: ROE 9% — below what a bank must earn to create value · GNPA 3.8% — still elevated · the spread is near its 6-year high
Lending incomeUp 29% YoY
The spreadKeeps 74% of interest income (a year ago: 70%)
ProfitUp 110% YoY
DEEP CYCLICAL
Trough
Recovery
Expansion
Peak

Profits swing violently in this business — real losses in FY22. That is what “deep cyclical” means: the same company looks brilliant at the top of its cycle and broken at the bottom.net_profit

Where the clock stands now: earnings sit at 100% of their historical range, margins are the best ever printed, and valuation history is thin. That reads as EXPANSION — the comfortable middle — but the records are already on the table; from here the bet is that they keep coming.net_profit

3 of the 3 things we track are currently moving the right way — nearly everything is pulling in the same direction.

Where the levels actually stand: ROE 9% — below what a bank must earn to create value; GNPA 3.8% — still elevated; the spread is near its 6-year high. Momentum says which way things are moving; these say where they are.

Read this number for what it is: it measures the DIRECTION of change, not the quality of the business. A mediocre business getting better scores high here; a great one having a soft quarter scores low. Profit, lending and bad loans count double, and a quarter of the score comes from our earnings-recovery lens (is the profit cycle turning up off its trough?).

WHERE THE PRICE IS IN ITS CYCLE

The price is in a confirmed uptrend — 5 weeks and counting

STAGE 2 · ADVANCING · 5 WEEKS

Stock prices move through four repeating stages: basing (1), advancing (2), topping (3) and declining (4). This one is in Stage 2: advancing, 5 weeks in, confirmed.stage

The price sits above its rising 200-day average (₹133 today) — trends like this persist more often than they reverse, which is why the system rides them instead of guessing the top.dma_200

What would end it: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the house exit rule — mechanical, no debates.dma_200

Weekly price with its 200-day and 50-day averages — stages shaded₹weinstein_stages
S4S2120140160Price200-DMAStage 2 began · Jun 26Apr 26May 26Jun 26Jul 26
Data: Weekly price, moving averages and stage
PeriodPrice (₹)200-DMA (₹)50-DMA (₹)Stage
Apr 261081231124
Apr 261181231124
Apr 261351231164
Apr 261321241204
May 261511251244
May 261251251254
May 261401261284
May 261451271304
Jun 261511281344
Jun 261471281354
Jun 261521281354
Jun 261431281364
Jun 261501291364
Jun 261631301392
Jun 261651301412
Jun 261661311442
Jun 261681321452
Jul 261731331482
THE LONG ARC

From losing money in FY22 to record profits

Over 5 years, income went from ₹495 Cr to ₹1,815 Cr (about 30% a year), and profit from ₹17.0 Cr to ₹194 Cr.revenuenet_profit

The books show real losses in FY22 (worst: ₹−46.0 Cr). Everything about today’s cheap-looking numbers must be read against that history — the recovery is what you are buying.net_profit

Revenue by year₹ Crannual_results
01,000FY21FY23FY25FY26
Data: Revenue by year
PeriodRevenue (₹ Cr)
FY21495
FY22432
FY23623
FY241,040
FY251,460
FY261,815
Profit by year₹ Crannual_results
0100200FY21FY23FY25FY26
Data: Profit by year
PeriodProfit after tax (₹ Cr)
FY2117
FY22-46
FY2354
FY24161
FY25171
FY26194
Spread % by year%annual_results
55.060.065.070.0FY21FY23FY25FY26
Data: Spread % by year
PeriodSpread % (%)
FY2152.3
FY2263.0
FY2368.1
FY2468.4
FY2567.7
FY2670.6
CHAPTER 1 · THE LENDING ENGINE

The loan book is working — interest income jumped 29%

For a bank, “revenue” is the interest and fees it earns on loans and investments.

Mar 26 income was ₹528 Cr, up 29% on a year ago. A bank grows by lending more and charging well — this line is both together.revenue

Quarterly interest + fee income₹ Crquarterly_results
0200400YoY %+23+29Dec 24Jun 25Dec 25Mar 26
Data: Quarterly interest + fee income
PeriodIncome (₹ Cr)YoY growth (%)
Dec 24361–
Mar 25409–
Jun 25407–
Sep 25437–
Dec 2544322.7
Mar 2652829.1
CHAPTER 2 · THE SPREAD

The spread is widening — funding costs are behaving

A bank borrows money (deposits) and lends it out. The spread — the share of interest income it keeps after paying depositors — is its gross margin. Derived: (income − interest paid) ÷ income.

Of every ₹100 of interest the bank earns, ₹26 goes straight out as interest on deposits and borrowings. It keeps ₹74 — up 5 points from a year ago.revenueinterest_expense

Share of interest income kept, quarterly%quarterly_results
68.070.072.074.0Dec 24Jun 25Dec 25Mar 26
Data: Share of interest income kept, quarterly
PeriodSpread kept (%)
Dec 2468.1
Mar 2569.9
Jun 2569.0
Sep 2569.6
Dec 2568.2
Mar 2674.4
CHAPTER 3 · THE BOTTOM LINE

Profit exploded 110% year on year

PAT — what is left for shareholders after paying depositors, staff, and setting aside money for bad loans.

Mar 26 profit was ₹86.0 Cr, up 110% on last year — earnings per share of ₹3.48.net_profiteps

Where the growth comes from matters: this year it is the lending engine — net interest income — doing the lifting, not one-off provision releases. That is the more durable kind.revenue

Quarterly profit after tax₹ Crquarterly_results
050.0YoY %+87+110Dec 24Jun 25Dec 25Mar 26
Data: Quarterly profit after tax
PeriodPAT (₹ Cr)YoY growth (%)
Dec 2423.0–
Mar 2541.0–
Jun 2531.0–
Sep 2535.0–
Dec 2543.087.0
Mar 2686.0109.8
Where the profit change came from (Mar 25 → Mar 26)₹ Cr
41+119−12−52+6−1686PAT Mar 25More interestincomeCostlierdepositsRunning costs& provisionsFees & otherincomeTaxPAT Mar 26

The biggest force in the bridge: lending more.

Data: Where the profit change came from (Mar 25 → Mar 26)
ComponentEffect (₹ Cr)
PAT Mar 2541
More interest income+119
Costlier deposits−12
Running costs & provisions−52
Fees & other income+6
Tax−16
PAT Mar 2686
CHAPTER 4 · WHAT YOU PAY

You are paying near the top of its own range

P/BV (price to book value) — the price of ₹1 of the bank’s net worth. The honest valuation lens for banks (P/E misleads on lenders).

Today you pay ₹1.68 for every ₹1 of book value, against a long-run median of ₹1.40. It has traded cheaper than this only 93% of the time since 2026.pb_ratio

Price-to-book over time (weekly)xvaluation_history
1.21.41.6Apr 26May 26Jun 26Jul 26
Data: Price-to-book over time (weekly)
PeriodP/BV (x)
Apr 261.4
Apr 261.4
Apr 261.4
Apr 261.3
May 261.3
May 261.3
May 261.4
May 261.4
May 261.5
May 261.4
May 261.3
May 261.3
May 261.3
May 261.2
May 261.2
May 261.4
May 261.4
May 261.4
May 261.4
May 261.4
May 261.4
May 261.4
May 261.4
Jun 261.4
Jun 261.6
Jun 261.5
Jun 261.5
Jun 261.4
Jun 261.4
Jun 261.5
Jun 261.4
Jun 261.4
Jun 261.5
Jun 261.5
Jun 261.6
Jun 261.6
Jun 261.6
Jun 261.6
Jun 261.6
Jun 261.6
Jun 261.6
Jun 261.6
Jun 261.7
Jun 261.7
Jul 261.7
THE VERDICT

A turnaround that stuck — the question is what’s left to re-rate

The numbers are genuinely mixed, and the price is roughly fair to the delivery so far.

Best thing in the data: profit rising (₹41.0 Cr → ₹86.0 Cr).net_profit

Biggest worry: return on equity falling (12.0% → 9.0%).roe_pct

The machine committee — 7 independent readsON WATCH · 51%
Earnings patternNEUTRAL20% · w21
Valuation cyclePOSITIVE73% · w19
CatalystsNEGATIVE58% · w14
Quality & safetyNEUTRAL35% · w14
TechnicalsPOSITIVE59% · w12
ValuationNEGATIVE90% · w10
Growth at a pricePOSITIVE62% · w10
Business quality6.8/10
Management5.5/10
7-model research readON WATCH · 51% confidence
WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEWTwo quarters of profit reversing would kill this story.

Machine-written research from Screener data — every number traces to its source column. Sector Alpha is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell. Not investment advice.

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Frequently asked questions

Straight answers from the data

What does Aye Finance Ltd do?

Incorporated in 1993, Aye Finance Limited is an NBFC offers secured and unsecured small business loans for working capital, including mortgage loans, Property Loans, secured and unsecured hypothecation loans, primarily to micro-scale MSMEs.[1]. It is listed in the NBFC - Others sector with a market capitalisation of ₹4,277 Cr.

What is Aye Finance Ltd's share price?

As of 1 July 2026, Aye Finance Ltd trades at ₹173, with a market capitalisation of ₹4,277 Cr. Prices are weekly closes from Screener data; this page refreshes with each weekly update.

What is Aye Finance Ltd's share price target?

Sector Alpha does not publish broker-style price targets. Our discounted-cash-flow model estimates Aye Finance Ltd's intrinsic value at ₹43.0 per share under base assumptions (bear ₹41.0, bull ₹111), against the current price of ₹173 — a 74% premium to model value. These are model estimates, not forecasts — treat them as one input alongside the valuation history below, not as a target.

What did Aye Finance Ltd report in its latest quarterly results?

In its most recent reported quarter (Q4 FY26, quarter ended March 2026): Mar 26 income was ₹528 Cr, up 29% on a year ago. A bank grows by lending more and charging well — this line is both together. Mar 26 profit was ₹86.0 Cr, up 110% on last year — earnings per share of ₹3.48. Figures are from Screener-scraped quarterly filings; the page updates when the next quarter is filed.

Is Aye Finance Ltd growing?

The loan book is working — interest income jumped 29%. Mar 26 income was ₹528 Cr, up 29% on a year ago. A bank grows by lending more and charging well — this line is both together.

Are Aye Finance Ltd's profits growing?

Profit exploded 110% year on year. Mar 26 profit was ₹86.0 Cr, up 110% on last year — earnings per share of ₹3.48.

How much of its interest income does Aye Finance Ltd keep?

The spread is widening — funding costs are behaving. Of every ₹100 of interest the bank earns, ₹26 goes straight out as interest on deposits and borrowings. It keeps ₹74 — up 5 points from a year ago.

What is Aye Finance Ltd's long-term growth record?

Revenue grew from ₹495 Cr in FY21 to ₹1,815 Cr in FY26 — a 29.7% compound annual growth rate over 5 years. Profit after tax compounded at 62.7% over the same period (₹17 Cr → ₹194 Cr).

Is Aye Finance Ltd stock in an uptrend?

The price is in a confirmed uptrend — 5 weeks and counting. Aye Finance Ltd is in Stage 2 — advancing, 5 weeks in (confirmed). Stages follow Stan Weinstein's four-phase read of weekly price against the 200-day average: basing (1), advancing (2), topping (3), declining (4).

Where is Aye Finance Ltd in its business cycle?

The data reads Aye Finance Ltd as a deep cyclical business currently in its expansion phase — earnings at an all-time high for this company. Profits swing violently in this business — real losses in FY22. That is what “deep cyclical” means: the same company looks brilliant at the top of its cycle and broken at the bottom.

What is the bull case for Aye Finance Ltd?

From losses in FY22 to record profits — the comeback is real, the price knows it. Best thing in the data: profit rising (₹41.0 Cr → ₹86.0 Cr). The loan book is working — interest income jumped 29%.

What is the bear case for Aye Finance Ltd — what could break the story?

Biggest worry: return on equity falling (12.0% → 9.0%). Two quarters of profit reversing would kill this story. This falsification condition is stated up front so the thesis can be checked against incoming quarters, not defended after the fact.

Is Aye Finance Ltd a stock worth studying right now?

Sector Alpha does not publish buy or sell recommendations — this is a research read, not advice. What the data says: a turnaround that stuck — the question is what’s left to re-rate. The numbers are genuinely mixed, and the price is roughly fair to the delivery so far. Across the 7-model scorecard the composite research signal is on watch at 51% confidence. This is machine-written research compiled from Screener data — every number traces to its source — and it is not investment advice. Do your own diligence.

Generated from Screener data · 8 sources · why_traces/1.0 + story/1.2
details
generated 2026-07-03 11:21 · 2 material moves detected
sources: screener_company_info, screener_quarterly_results, screener_annual_results, screener_valuation_history, screener_shareholding, weinstein_stages, agent_scores, stock_timelines