Aye Finance Ltd (AYE) — share price & stock analysis
From losses in FY22 to record profits — the comeback is real, the price knows it.
Aye Finance Ltd (AYE) trades at ₹173 as of 1 July 2026. The machine reads this as turnaround: from losses in FY22 to record profits — the comeback is real, the price knows it. the price is in Stage 2 — advancing, 5 weeks in; the business cycle reads DEEP CYCLICAL / EXPANSION. Fundamentals-momentum score: 89/100 (all improving).
Data as of 1 July 2026 · every number traces to its Screener source column · not investment advice.
- Market cap
- ₹4,277 Cr
- P/BV
- 1.68×
- ROE
- 9.2%
- Book value / share
- ₹103
- Revenue (FY26)
- ₹1,815 Cr
- Profit after tax (FY26)
- ₹194 Cr
- Weinstein stage
- Stage 2 (5 weeks)
- Data as of
- 1 July 2026
Profits swing violently in this business — real losses in FY22. That is what “deep cyclical” means: the same company looks brilliant at the top of its cycle and broken at the bottom.net_profit
Where the clock stands now: earnings sit at 100% of their historical range, margins are the best ever printed, and valuation history is thin. That reads as EXPANSION — the comfortable middle — but the records are already on the table; from here the bet is that they keep coming.net_profit
3 of the 3 things we track are currently moving the right way — nearly everything is pulling in the same direction.
Where the levels actually stand: ROE 9% — below what a bank must earn to create value; GNPA 3.8% — still elevated; the spread is near its 6-year high. Momentum says which way things are moving; these say where they are.
Read this number for what it is: it measures the DIRECTION of change, not the quality of the business. A mediocre business getting better scores high here; a great one having a soft quarter scores low. Profit, lending and bad loans count double, and a quarter of the score comes from our earnings-recovery lens (is the profit cycle turning up off its trough?).
The price is in a confirmed uptrend — 5 weeks and counting
STAGE 2 · ADVANCING · 5 WEEKSStock prices move through four repeating stages: basing (1), advancing (2), topping (3) and declining (4). This one is in Stage 2: advancing, 5 weeks in, confirmed.stage
The price sits above its rising 200-day average (₹133 today) — trends like this persist more often than they reverse, which is why the system rides them instead of guessing the top.dma_200
What would end it: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the house exit rule — mechanical, no debates.dma_200
Data: Weekly price, moving averages and stage
| Period | Price (₹) | 200-DMA (₹) | 50-DMA (₹) | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | 108 | 123 | 112 | 4 |
| Apr 26 | 118 | 123 | 112 | 4 |
| Apr 26 | 135 | 123 | 116 | 4 |
| Apr 26 | 132 | 124 | 120 | 4 |
| May 26 | 151 | 125 | 124 | 4 |
| May 26 | 125 | 125 | 125 | 4 |
| May 26 | 140 | 126 | 128 | 4 |
| May 26 | 145 | 127 | 130 | 4 |
| Jun 26 | 151 | 128 | 134 | 4 |
| Jun 26 | 147 | 128 | 135 | 4 |
| Jun 26 | 152 | 128 | 135 | 4 |
| Jun 26 | 143 | 128 | 136 | 4 |
| Jun 26 | 150 | 129 | 136 | 4 |
| Jun 26 | 163 | 130 | 139 | 2 |
| Jun 26 | 165 | 130 | 141 | 2 |
| Jun 26 | 166 | 131 | 144 | 2 |
| Jun 26 | 168 | 132 | 145 | 2 |
| Jul 26 | 173 | 133 | 148 | 2 |
From losing money in FY22 to record profits
Over 5 years, income went from ₹495 Cr to ₹1,815 Cr (about 30% a year), and profit from ₹17.0 Cr to ₹194 Cr.revenuenet_profit
The books show real losses in FY22 (worst: ₹−46.0 Cr). Everything about today’s cheap-looking numbers must be read against that history — the recovery is what you are buying.net_profit
Data: Revenue by year
| Period | Revenue (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|
| FY21 | 495 |
| FY22 | 432 |
| FY23 | 623 |
| FY24 | 1,040 |
| FY25 | 1,460 |
| FY26 | 1,815 |
Data: Profit by year
| Period | Profit after tax (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|
| FY21 | 17 |
| FY22 | -46 |
| FY23 | 54 |
| FY24 | 161 |
| FY25 | 171 |
| FY26 | 194 |
Data: Spread % by year
| Period | Spread % (%) |
|---|---|
| FY21 | 52.3 |
| FY22 | 63.0 |
| FY23 | 68.1 |
| FY24 | 68.4 |
| FY25 | 67.7 |
| FY26 | 70.6 |
The loan book is working — interest income jumped 29%
Mar 26 income was ₹528 Cr, up 29% on a year ago. A bank grows by lending more and charging well — this line is both together.revenue
Data: Quarterly interest + fee income
| Period | Income (₹ Cr) | YoY growth (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 24 | 361 | – |
| Mar 25 | 409 | – |
| Jun 25 | 407 | – |
| Sep 25 | 437 | – |
| Dec 25 | 443 | 22.7 |
| Mar 26 | 528 | 29.1 |
The spread is widening — funding costs are behaving
Of every ₹100 of interest the bank earns, ₹26 goes straight out as interest on deposits and borrowings. It keeps ₹74 — up 5 points from a year ago.revenueinterest_expense
Data: Share of interest income kept, quarterly
| Period | Spread kept (%) |
|---|---|
| Dec 24 | 68.1 |
| Mar 25 | 69.9 |
| Jun 25 | 69.0 |
| Sep 25 | 69.6 |
| Dec 25 | 68.2 |
| Mar 26 | 74.4 |
Profit exploded 110% year on year
Mar 26 profit was ₹86.0 Cr, up 110% on last year — earnings per share of ₹3.48.net_profiteps
Where the growth comes from matters: this year it is the lending engine — net interest income — doing the lifting, not one-off provision releases. That is the more durable kind.revenue
Data: Quarterly profit after tax
| Period | PAT (₹ Cr) | YoY growth (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 24 | 23.0 | – |
| Mar 25 | 41.0 | – |
| Jun 25 | 31.0 | – |
| Sep 25 | 35.0 | – |
| Dec 25 | 43.0 | 87.0 |
| Mar 26 | 86.0 | 109.8 |
The biggest force in the bridge: lending more.
Data: Where the profit change came from (Mar 25 → Mar 26)
| Component | Effect (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|
| PAT Mar 25 | 41 |
| More interest income | +119 |
| Costlier deposits | −12 |
| Running costs & provisions | −52 |
| Fees & other income | +6 |
| Tax | −16 |
| PAT Mar 26 | 86 |
You are paying near the top of its own range
Today you pay ₹1.68 for every ₹1 of book value, against a long-run median of ₹1.40. It has traded cheaper than this only 93% of the time since 2026.pb_ratio
Data: Price-to-book over time (weekly)
| Period | P/BV (x) |
|---|---|
| Apr 26 | 1.4 |
| Apr 26 | 1.4 |
| Apr 26 | 1.4 |
| Apr 26 | 1.3 |
| May 26 | 1.3 |
| May 26 | 1.3 |
| May 26 | 1.4 |
| May 26 | 1.4 |
| May 26 | 1.5 |
| May 26 | 1.4 |
| May 26 | 1.3 |
| May 26 | 1.3 |
| May 26 | 1.3 |
| May 26 | 1.2 |
| May 26 | 1.2 |
| May 26 | 1.4 |
| May 26 | 1.4 |
| May 26 | 1.4 |
| May 26 | 1.4 |
| May 26 | 1.4 |
| May 26 | 1.4 |
| May 26 | 1.4 |
| May 26 | 1.4 |
| Jun 26 | 1.4 |
| Jun 26 | 1.6 |
| Jun 26 | 1.5 |
| Jun 26 | 1.5 |
| Jun 26 | 1.4 |
| Jun 26 | 1.4 |
| Jun 26 | 1.5 |
| Jun 26 | 1.4 |
| Jun 26 | 1.4 |
| Jun 26 | 1.5 |
| Jun 26 | 1.5 |
| Jun 26 | 1.6 |
| Jun 26 | 1.6 |
| Jun 26 | 1.6 |
| Jun 26 | 1.6 |
| Jun 26 | 1.6 |
| Jun 26 | 1.6 |
| Jun 26 | 1.6 |
| Jun 26 | 1.6 |
| Jun 26 | 1.7 |
| Jun 26 | 1.7 |
| Jul 26 | 1.7 |
A turnaround that stuck — the question is what’s left to re-rate
The numbers are genuinely mixed, and the price is roughly fair to the delivery so far.
Best thing in the data: profit rising (₹41.0 Cr → ₹86.0 Cr).net_profit
Biggest worry: return on equity falling (12.0% → 9.0%).roe_pct
Machine-written research from Screener data — every number traces to its source column. Sector Alpha is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell. Not investment advice.
Straight answers from the data
What does Aye Finance Ltd do?
Incorporated in 1993, Aye Finance Limited is an NBFC offers secured and unsecured small business loans for working capital, including mortgage loans, Property Loans, secured and unsecured hypothecation loans, primarily to micro-scale MSMEs.[1]. It is listed in the NBFC - Others sector with a market capitalisation of ₹4,277 Cr.
What is Aye Finance Ltd's share price?
As of 1 July 2026, Aye Finance Ltd trades at ₹173, with a market capitalisation of ₹4,277 Cr. Prices are weekly closes from Screener data; this page refreshes with each weekly update.
What is Aye Finance Ltd's share price target?
Sector Alpha does not publish broker-style price targets. Our discounted-cash-flow model estimates Aye Finance Ltd's intrinsic value at ₹43.0 per share under base assumptions (bear ₹41.0, bull ₹111), against the current price of ₹173 — a 74% premium to model value. These are model estimates, not forecasts — treat them as one input alongside the valuation history below, not as a target.
What did Aye Finance Ltd report in its latest quarterly results?
In its most recent reported quarter (Q4 FY26, quarter ended March 2026): Mar 26 income was ₹528 Cr, up 29% on a year ago. A bank grows by lending more and charging well — this line is both together. Mar 26 profit was ₹86.0 Cr, up 110% on last year — earnings per share of ₹3.48. Figures are from Screener-scraped quarterly filings; the page updates when the next quarter is filed.
Is Aye Finance Ltd growing?
The loan book is working — interest income jumped 29%. Mar 26 income was ₹528 Cr, up 29% on a year ago. A bank grows by lending more and charging well — this line is both together.
Are Aye Finance Ltd's profits growing?
Profit exploded 110% year on year. Mar 26 profit was ₹86.0 Cr, up 110% on last year — earnings per share of ₹3.48.
How much of its interest income does Aye Finance Ltd keep?
The spread is widening — funding costs are behaving. Of every ₹100 of interest the bank earns, ₹26 goes straight out as interest on deposits and borrowings. It keeps ₹74 — up 5 points from a year ago.
What is Aye Finance Ltd's long-term growth record?
Revenue grew from ₹495 Cr in FY21 to ₹1,815 Cr in FY26 — a 29.7% compound annual growth rate over 5 years. Profit after tax compounded at 62.7% over the same period (₹17 Cr → ₹194 Cr).
Is Aye Finance Ltd stock in an uptrend?
The price is in a confirmed uptrend — 5 weeks and counting. Aye Finance Ltd is in Stage 2 — advancing, 5 weeks in (confirmed). Stages follow Stan Weinstein's four-phase read of weekly price against the 200-day average: basing (1), advancing (2), topping (3), declining (4).
Where is Aye Finance Ltd in its business cycle?
The data reads Aye Finance Ltd as a deep cyclical business currently in its expansion phase — earnings at an all-time high for this company. Profits swing violently in this business — real losses in FY22. That is what “deep cyclical” means: the same company looks brilliant at the top of its cycle and broken at the bottom.
What is the bull case for Aye Finance Ltd?
From losses in FY22 to record profits — the comeback is real, the price knows it. Best thing in the data: profit rising (₹41.0 Cr → ₹86.0 Cr). The loan book is working — interest income jumped 29%.
What is the bear case for Aye Finance Ltd — what could break the story?
Biggest worry: return on equity falling (12.0% → 9.0%). Two quarters of profit reversing would kill this story. This falsification condition is stated up front so the thesis can be checked against incoming quarters, not defended after the fact.
Is Aye Finance Ltd a stock worth studying right now?
Sector Alpha does not publish buy or sell recommendations — this is a research read, not advice. What the data says: a turnaround that stuck — the question is what’s left to re-rate. The numbers are genuinely mixed, and the price is roughly fair to the delivery so far. Across the 7-model scorecard the composite research signal is on watch at 51% confidence. This is machine-written research compiled from Screener data — every number traces to its source — and it is not investment advice. Do your own diligence.