Antelopus Selan Energy Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Antelopus Selan Energy Ltd trades at ₹1,139, in a confirmed uptrend and 23 weeks into that stage. That is +56.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 100% of a 52-week range of ₹363 to ₹1,139. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 2 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 23 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹1,139 it trades +56.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 100% of its 52-week range (₹363–₹1,139).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +570% while the NIFTY 500 moved +259% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 2 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Antelopus Selan Energy Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 17 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: MID_CONTRACTION. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 22 August 2026.

What is proven. See the research file

What is not proven yet. FY26 avg realization fell to $66/boe from $75/boe FY25; every $5/boe swing in crude translates to ~₹25-30 Cr annualized revenue impact at 1,355 boepd — the company has no pricing power.

Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — KEEP. A real production ramp plus two permanent cost cuts — but new shares make the headline growth 3x too flattering. Antelopus is genuinely inflecting: sales went from Rs 51 crore to Rs 131 crore over four quarters as new wells at Karjisan and Bakrol came online, and I checked the quarter in the accounts rather than trusting the summary — operating profit rose Rs 27 crore to Rs 92 crore and other income was actually NEGATIVE, so none of it is dressed up. Two of the cost improvements are permanent: a legal change extended the useful life of its oil fields by ten years, cutting the annual write-down charge with the auditors signing off unmodified, and the government cut the royalty on onshore crude to 10 percent. The catch is share count. Profit rose 391 percent but profit PER SHARE only 109 percent…

What would change Layer 1’s mind. Consuming driver D4's own stall-flag and milestone M3 together: if the Cambay C-79 well fails the way C-78 did — no commercial production — WHILE average crude realization prints below 70 dollars a barrel, then both the volume path to 2,500 barrels a day and the price leg break at once, and with no pricing power this goes to DROP. The single cleanest positive that would lift the cap: a first-ever earnings call or audited half-year disclosure confirming production held above 1,800 barrels a day…

Layer 2 read, 22 August 2026 — BENCH. Real company improvement, but the oil cycle is too late and event-driven for admission now. Production reached the earlier exit-rate goal and the asset-life change permanently lowered amortization. Externally, however, the oil sector is already classified as extended and TOPPING, with the Hormuz premium described as a reversible trade rather than a durable hold.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. ADVANCE if a fresh schema-2 sector read moves out of TOPPING and the next company evidence shows production rising while per-share earnings and debtor days improve without help from a crude spike; DROP if crude normalises and production or margin rolls over together.

The test written in advance. Crude Oil Price Reversion — Primary P&L Risk — Crude Oil Price Reversion — Primary P&L Risk Monthly Brent crude price; average realization per boe in Q1 FY27 results by the next result.

The test written in advance. Cambay C-78 / C-79 Well Failure — Execution Miss — Cambay C-78 / C-79 Well Failure — Execution Miss C-79 drill result announcement; Cambay production in Q1-Q2 FY27 by the next result.

The test written in advance. Promoter Ownership Complexity — Blackbuck Energy / Antelopus Merger — Promoter Ownership Complexity — Blackbuck Energy / Antelopus Merger Any related-party disclosures; FII holding trend in Mar 2026 and Jun 2026 quarters by the next result.

What the company does. FY26 closed with PAT +27% YoY to ₹89.61 Cr, exit rate 1,880 boepd in March 2026 — up from 1,193 boepd average in FY25 — driven entirely by new wells at Karjisan, Bakrol, and Cambay. New Oil Fields Act 2025 extended PSC asset lives by 10 years, reducing amortization by ₹1,776 Lakhs in FY26 and permanently lifting PAT from the same production level — a structural earnings boost. Management targets 2,500 boepd in FY27 through a self-funded plan (zero long-term debt) but C-78 well at Cambay did not achieve commercial production, and C-79 is still in planning — execution risk is real.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. Karjisan +48% to 684 boepd on 4 new wells; Bakrol at 555 boepd; exit rate 1,880 boepd March 2026 vs 1,193 boepd FY25 average — volume is the primary earnings engine. What proves it keeps working: Production Volume Ramp — Multi-Field New Wells. It stops working if Monthly Brent crude price; average realization per boe in Q1 FY27 results.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. New Oil Fields Act 2025 enabled 10-year extension of PSC asset lives at Bakrol, Lohar, Cambay — reducing amortization by ₹1,776 Lakhs in FY26 and permanently lifting PAT at any production level. What proves it keeps working: Structural Amortization Relief — PSC Life Extension. It stops working if Monthly Brent crude price; average realization per boe in Q1 FY27 results.

Lever 14 · A bigger market to sell into — BUILDING. India cut onshore crude oil royalty to 10% (May 8, 2026) — a direct cost reduction for onshore E&P operators like Antelopus Selan, improving netbacks at any given Brent price. What proves it keeps working: India Royalty Reform — Structural Policy Tailwind. It stops working if Monthly Brent crude price; average realization per boe in Q1 FY27 results.

Lever 6 · Order-book wins — BUILDING. C-78 drilled Oct/Nov 2025 did NOT achieve commercial production; C-79 in planning — Cambay execution is the weakest link in the 2,500 boepd thesis. What proves it keeps working: Cambay PSC New Well Programme. It stops working if Monthly Brent crude price; average realization per boe in Q1 FY27 results.

Sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Antelopus Selan Energy Ltd reported ₹131 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +156.9% year on year. That is the 3rd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 16.2% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹279 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹359 Cr.

Why this happened. The Government of India notified revised royalty rates on May 8, 2026. Onshore crude oil royalty reduced to 10%; offshore to 8%; gas royalty to 8% via revised wellhead price formula. For Antelopus Selan, which operates entirely onshore in Gujarat, Assam, and Andhra Pradesh, this is a direct reduction in production costs. The full benefit accrues from Q1 FY27 onwards. The policy was driven by West Asia conflict energy security concerns and PM Modi's 'Vocal for Local' push — bipartisan support makes reversal unlikely.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹279 Cr (+8.1% on the year), capping 10 years at 16.2% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹131 Cr, +156.9% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +53.0% growth against the decade's 16.2% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +45.9% over the last 4 quarters against +33.6%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +106.3% vs +71.3%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Antelopus Selan Energy Ltd's operating margin is 70.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +17.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 24.0% to 81.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. The volume inflection began in Q2 FY26 (Sep 2025) when Karjisan new wells started producing. Q3 FY26 showed 35% overall production growth YoY to 1,498 boepd. By March 2026 the exit rate hit 1,880 boepd, having already delivered the prior-year 1,800+ boepd exit guidance. FY27 target of 2,500 boepd requires: remaining Bakrol wells by H1 FY27, seven new Karjisan FDP wells (drilling start end FY27), and one Cambay well in H2 FY27. The Karjisan leg is the most credible — four wells already proving the reservoir. Bakrol and Cambay execution remain the variables.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 70.0%, +17.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 24.0%–81.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +17.2 pp year on year while gross margin went −0.5 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Antelopus Selan Energy Ltd earned ₹54.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +390.9% year on year. It is the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹90.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 21.3%. That is 41.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹11.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹54.0 Cr, +390.9% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹90.0 Cr (+26.8%), and the 10-year compound rate is 21.3%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +156.9% and the margin +17.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +139.9% vs revenue +53.0%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 159% of Antelopus Selan Energy Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹116 Cr of operating cash against ₹90.0 Cr of profit. After ₹237 Cr of capital spending, ₹−121 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹116 Cr against reported profit of ₹90.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−121 Cr after ₹237 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 159% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 159%: the cash cycle held roughly steady between FY21 and FY26 — so conversion tracks profitability rather than the cycle.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 4.4× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Antelopus Selan Energy Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 88 days in FY26, down from 94 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹590 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹279 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹0.8 Cr, so roughly ₹67.0 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 88 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 88 days, tighter than FY21's 94.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹279 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹0.8 Cr — so the 88-day loop keeps roughly ₹67.0 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹590 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹135 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹210 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Antelopus Selan Energy Ltd earns a ROCE of 20% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −2% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +2.1 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 32.3% net margin on 0.34× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 20%, recovered from a FY21 trough of −2% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 32.3% net margin × 0.34× asset turns × 1.26× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 13.8% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 14.1% − 12.0% = a +2.1 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Antelopus Selan Energy Ltd carries ₹4.0 Cr of borrowings against ₹655 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.01. Operating profit covers the interest bill north of 100×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹1.0 Cr to ₹4.0 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹590 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹4.0 Cr against equity of ₹655 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.01. Operating profit covers the interest bill north of 100×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹1.0 Cr to ₹4.0 Cr while capital spending ran ₹590 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters added 39.5 points of Antelopus Selan Energy Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 69.9% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −4.6 points over the same window, to 0.4%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: +39.5 points over 8 quarters to 69.9%; Foreign institutions: −4.6 points over 8 quarters to 0.4%; Domestic institutions: +0.6 points over 8 quarters to 0.8%.

Why the register moved: promoters drove it (+39.5 points), absorbed on the other side by foreign institutions (−4.6 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Antelopus Selan Energy Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Antelopus Selan Energy Ltd trades at 28.6× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (67th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 23.4×, measured across 10.6 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 28.6× is mid-range by its own standards (67th percentile), against a long-run median of 23.4× measured over 10.6 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −45.1% against a +106.6% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +50.0%/yr price move, ~+50.0%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+0.0 pp from the multiple (roughly flat); over 10y, of the +19.1%/yr price move, ~+20.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−1.1 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 27 August 2026 price, Antelopus Selan Energy Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 11.7% a year. Profit itself has compounded 21.3% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 28.6× P/E, the 67th percentile of its own 11-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 27 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Antelopus Selan Energy Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from +0.0% at the trough to +106.3%, a 2-quarter improving streak, ROCE lifting at 17.0%. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

4-Factor Sector Score

86.1/100 — rank 1 of 10 in Oil Drilling & Exploration · 93% evidence confidence

Antelopus Selan Energy Ltd scores 86.1 out of 100 against the 10 companies it is compared with in Oil Drilling & Exploration, ranking 1. Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 32.2 + 22.1 + 14.6 + 17.2 = 86.1. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Frequently asked questions