Sector Alpha Week of 2026-08-05
Sector Alpha — machine-written from the numbers · Data as of 2026-08-05

Spotify Technology S.A.

SPOT
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

Spotify Technology S.A.'s earnings have outrun its stock. EPS grew +91.1% in a year against a −23.8% price move.

The sharpest disagreement: annual EPS moved +91.1% against a −23.8% price move — the market has not yet caught up with the delivery.

The price is in a downtrend (17 weeks in). Underneath, the last four quarters read improving — profit +213.0% year on year, and 156% of the last 2 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether the price catches up with earnings that have already moved.

Price
$478
−23.8% 1Y
P/E
26.3×
of its own 2-year range
Revenue (Mar 26)
$4.5 B
+8.1% YoY
Profit (Mar 26)
$0.7 B
+213.0% YoY
Operating margin
15.7%
+3.5 pp YoY
ROE
45%
FY25
ROIC
317.1%
vs WACC 12.9% → +304.2 pp
Cash conversion
156%
of profit, last 2 FY
01 · Price story

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Spotify Technology S.A. trades at $478, in a downtrend and 17 weeks into that stage. That is −8.4% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 19% of a 52-week range of $418 to $735. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 2 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 17 of stage 4. At $478 it trades −8.4% versus its 200-day average and sits at 19% of its 52-week range ($418–$735).

Aug 26: $478 Weekly closing price ($) with 50- and 200-day averages; shaded bands mark the price stage (grey base, green advance, amber top, red decline). 3-year window.
−8.4% versus the 200-day line, week 17 of stage 4
Price50-day avg200-day avg
S2S1S4$825$635$446$256$66.2$$478$522Jul 23Apr 24Jan 25Oct 25Aug 26
S2S1S4$825$635$446$256$66.2$$478$522Jul 23Jan 25Aug 26
Beating or trailing, week by week since 2018 Each cell is one week from 2018 to now (436 weeks): the stock's trailing 13-week return minus the S&P 500's, green ahead / red behind (±25% ramp). Grey cells are the 13-week warm-up or weeks where the S&P 500 reading is not held.
trailing 13-week return vs the S&P 500
Apr 18Aug 26

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 8.3 years the stock moved +223% while the S&P 500 moved +197% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 2 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

02 · Valuation

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

Spotify Technology S.A. trades at 26.3× P/E, against too little history to rank. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 26.3× is against too little history to rank. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

P/E 26.3× vs a null× long-run median P/E, weekly (left axis); earnings per share, trailing twelve months, weekly step line (right axis). 2.1-year window; loss-period spikes above 188× shown pinned at the top. The eps (ttm) bars are red where the reading is lower than the quarter before.
against too little history to rank
P/EEPS (TTM) (quarterly)
199.8×$11.6156.6×$8.7113.4×$5.870.2×$2.927.0×$0.0×$44.52×$11Jul 24Jan 25Jul 25Jan 26Aug 26
199.8×$11.6156.6×$8.7113.4×$5.870.2×$2.927.0×$0.0×$44.52×$11Jul 24Jul 25Aug 26
PEG 1.31 PEG ratio per quarter — the P/E divided by the earnings-growth rate. The dashed line marks 1.0: below it the growth is cheap against the multiple, above it the price already prices the growth in. Last 10 quarters.
above 1.0, the multiple already banks the growth
PEGPEG = 1.0
2.1×1.6×1.1×0.6×0.1××1.31×Dec 23Jun 24Dec 24Jun 25Mar 26
2.1×1.6×1.1×0.6×0.1××1.31×Dec 23Dec 24Mar 26
P/E
26.3×
too little history to rank
PEG
1.02
as reported

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +91.1% against a −23.8% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

03 · Stage: No read

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Spotify Technology S.A. reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 12 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.

Growth, year by year: revenue +9.7% in FY25, profit +93.9% Year-over-year growth per fiscal year, %: revenue (left axis); net profit and EPS (right axis — profit growth swings far wider). Zero line drawn.
Revenue YoYProfit YoYEPS YoY
22%94.1%19%93.3%16%92.5%12%91.7%8.8%90.9%%%9.7%93.9%FY21FY23FY25
22%94.1%19%93.3%16%92.5%12%91.7%8.8%90.9%%%9.7%93.9%FY21FY23FY25
Three growth curves, twelve quarters Year-on-year growth of trailing-twelve-month revenue (left axis), profit and EPS (right axis — they swing far wider), % at each quarter-end. Where the trailing-twelve-month history is short, the curve falls back to single-quarter year-on-year growth — noisier, and the classifier smooths and caps base-effect spikes before reading. Base-effect spikes shown pinned (▲). A missing point means that reading is not held for the quarter.
the trajectory the stage is read from · revenue rolling over
RevenueProfitEPS
19%335%16%209%13%83%10%−42%7.1%−168%%%7.9%213%91.4%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
19%335%16%209%13%83%10%−42%7.1%−168%%%7.9%213%91.4%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
ROCE Trailing-twelve-month operating profit (before interest and tax) as a share of average capital employed — total assets minus current liabilities, the standard textbook basis, %.
the return curve, computed quarterly
ROCE
32%21%9.1%−2.4%−14%%27.9%Jun 23Dec 23Sep 24Jun 25Mar 26
32%21%9.1%−2.4%−14%%27.9%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
Revenue growth
Steady high
latest +7.9% · span +7.9% to +18.5%
ROCE
Rising
latest 27.9% · span −10.7%–28.9%

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

Compound annual growth rate (%) Compound annual growth rate over each window, %. Revenue, profit and EPS from fiscal-year figures; stock price is the price CAGR over the same spans. A dash = that window is not held, or the base was a loss.
1yr3yr5yr10yr
Revenue+9.7%+13.6%
Profit+93.9%
EPS+91.1%
Stock price−23.8%+49.1%+16.6%
Revenue YoY (Mar 26)
+8.1%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Profit YoY (Mar 26)
+213.0%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Revenue 10y
15.5%
long-run compound pace
04 · 4-Factor Sector Score

4-Factor Sector Score

56.5/100 — rank 6 of 24 in Internet Content & Information · 81% evidence confidence

Spotify Technology S.A. scores 56.5 out of 100 against the 24 companies it is compared with in Internet Content & Information, ranking 6. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 23 + 14.8 + 11 + 7.7 = 56.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

05 · Revenue

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Spotify Technology S.A. reported $4.5 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +8.1% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 15.5% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $17.2 B. The last four reported quarters add to $17.5 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $17.2 B (+9.7% on the year), capping 4 years at 15.5% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $4.5 B, +8.1% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

FY25 revenue $17.2 B (+9.7% YoY) Revenue bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 5-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
15.5% a year over 4 years
RevenueYoY growth
1922%1419%9.316%4.612%0.08.8%$ B%$17B9.7%FY21FY23FY25
1922%1419%9.316%4.612%0.08.8%$ B%$17B9.7%FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: $4.5 B (+8.1% YoY) Quarterly revenue bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
12th straight quarter of growth
Revenue (quarterly)YoY growth
4.921%3.717%2.413%1.29.5%0.05.8%$ B%$5B8.1%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
4.921%3.717%2.413%1.29.5%0.05.8%$ B%$5B8.1%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +8.0% growth against the decade's 15.5% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +7.9% over the last 4 quarters against +12.5%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over.

06 · Operating margin

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Spotify Technology S.A.'s operating margin is 15.7% in the Mar 26 quarter, +3.5 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −5.6% to 12.8%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 15.7%, +3.5 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −5.6%–12.8%, and FY25's 12.8% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +3.5 pp year on year while gross margin went +1.4 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

FY25: 12.8% Operating margin by fiscal year, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). 5-year window.
the widest a −5.6–12.8% band over 5 years
operating marginYoY change (pp)
14%14%8.9%8.2%3.6%2.8%−1.7%−2.6%−7.1%−8.0%%%12.8%4.1%FY21FY23FY25
14%14%8.9%8.2%3.6%2.8%−1.7%−2.6%−7.1%−8.0%%%12.8%4.1%FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: 15.7% operating margin (+3.5 pp YoY) Quarterly operating margin, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). Last 12 quarters. Operating profit as a share of revenue, per quarter.
Operating marginYoY change (pp)
18%16%11%12%3.9%6.8%−2.9%2.1%−9.8%−2.6%%%15.7%3.5%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
18%16%11%12%3.9%6.8%−2.9%2.1%−9.8%−2.6%%%15.7%3.5%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
07 · Net profit

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Spotify Technology S.A. earned $0.7 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +213.0% year on year. It is the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY25 profit was $2.2 B. That is 15.9% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.2 B. 3 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Mar 26 profit was $0.7 B, +213.0% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY25 printed $2.2 B (+93.9%).

FY25 profit $2.2 B (+93.9% YoY) Net profit bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 5-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
Net profitYoY growth
2.495.1%1.694.5%0.893.9%0.093.3%−0.792.7%$ B%$2B93.9%FY21FY23FY25
2.495.1%1.694.5%0.893.9%0.093.3%−0.792.7%$ B%$2B93.9%FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: $0.7 B (+213.0% YoY) Quarterly net profit bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
3rd straight quarter of growth
Net profit (quarterly)YoY growth
1.3366%0.9232%0.498%0.0−36%−0.4−170%$ B%$1B213%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
1.3366%0.9232%0.498%0.0−36%−0.4−170%$ B%$1B213%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +8.1% and the margin +3.5 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +124.0% vs revenue +8.0%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra dollar of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

08 · Cash flow — the router

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 2 fiscal years 156% of Spotify Technology S.A.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $2.9 B of operating cash against $2.2 B of profit. After $0.1 B of capital spending, $2.9 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $2.9 B against reported profit of $2.2 B, leaving free cash of $2.9 B after $0.1 B of capital spending. Across the last 2 fiscal years the conversion rate is 156% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

FY25: CFO $2.9 B vs profit $2.2 B Operating cash flow and net profit by fiscal year, $ B; the line is free cash flow (CFO minus capital spending). 5-year window, annual resolution.
156% of 2-year profit arrived as cash
Operating cashNet profitFree cash
3.22.21.20.2−0.8$ B$3B$2B$3BFY21FY23FY25
3.22.21.20.2−0.8$ B$3B$2B$3BFY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: operating cash $0.8 B = 117% of the quarter's profit Operating cash per quarter, $ B (bars); conversion = operating cash as % of net profit (line, right). Last 12 quarters. Dashed line = 100%.
Operating cash (quarterly)Conversion100%
1.0318%0.7253%0.5187%0.2121%0.056%$ B%$1B117%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
1.0318%0.7253%0.5187%0.2121%0.056%$ B%$1B117%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

09 · Where the cash goes

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Spotify Technology S.A. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $0.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 0.0% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $0.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

FY25: capex $0.1 B Capital spending per fiscal year, $ B (bars).
steady investment
Capex
0.100.070.050.020.00$ B$0BFY21FY23FY25
0.100.070.050.020.00$ B$0BFY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: capex $0.0 B in the quarter Capital spending per quarter, $ B (bars, left); free cash flow, $ B (line, right). Last 12 quarters.
Capex (quarterly)Free cash
0.0220.90.0160.70.0110.40.0050.20.000−0.1$ B$ B$0B$1BJun 23Sep 24Mar 26
0.0220.90.0160.70.0110.40.0050.20.000−0.1$ B$ B$0B$1BJun 23Sep 24Mar 26

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

10 · Return on equity

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

Spotify Technology S.A. earns a ROE of 27% in FY25. That is up from a trough of −21% in FY23. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +304.2 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 12.9% net margin on 1.14× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is 27%, recovered from a FY23 trough of −21% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 12.9% net margin × 1.14× asset turns × 1.80× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 26.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 317.1% − 12.9% = a +304.2 pp spread. The 12.9% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every dollar reinvested creates more than a dollar of value — the engine compounds.

FY25: ROE 27% Return on equity by fiscal year, % (line); ROIC by fiscal year, % (line). 5-year window, dips included. Dashed line = the 12.9% cost of capital used on this page.
the climb back from FY23's −21%
ROEROIC (annual)WACC
3,025%2,177%1,328%479%−369%%26.5%526.1%FY21FY23FY25
3,025%2,177%1,328%479%−369%%26.5%526.1%FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: ROIC 301.3% (TTM) vs WACC 12.9% Trailing-twelve-month ROIC and ROE, per quarter, %; dashed line = the cost of capital. Last 12 quarters, put on a trailing-twelve-month basis and anchored to the annual figure.
ROIC (TTM)ROE (TTM)WACC
474%294%115%−64%−244%%301.3%39.9%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
474%294%115%−64%−244%%301.3%39.9%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
11 · Dividend

Dividend

Spotify Technology S.A. pays no dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.

Spotify Technology S.A. does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.

12 · Debt

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Spotify Technology S.A. carries total debt of $0.4 B against shareholder equity of $8.0 B as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.05 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.84 in FY21 to 0.23 in FY25. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of $0.4 B against shareholder equity of $8.0 B — a debt-to-equity of 0.05. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.84 (FY21) to 0.23 (FY25). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

FY25: debt $1.9 B at 0.23× equity Total debt by fiscal year, $ B (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). 5-year window.
Total debtDebt-to-equity
2.20.9×1.60.7×1.10.5×0.50.4×0.00.2×$ B×$2B0.23×FY21FY23FY25
2.20.9×1.60.7×1.10.5×0.50.4×0.00.2×$ B×$2B0.23×FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: debt $0.4 B, debt-to-equity 0.05 Total debt per quarter, $ B (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). Last 12 quarters.
Total debt (quarterly)Debt-to-equity
2.60.9×1.90.7×1.30.4×0.60.2×0.00.0×$ B×$0B0.05×Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
2.60.9×1.90.7×1.30.4×0.60.2×0.00.0×$ B×$0B0.05×Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
13 · Ownership

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

4.2% of Spotify Technology S.A.'s tradable float is currently sold short — some money is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 3.9 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

The latest reading: 4.2% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 3.9 days to buy those positions back. Some money is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.

Short interest
4.2%
of the tradable float
Days to cover
3.9
at typical volumes

Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.

14 · Safety line

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Spotify Technology S.A.: the Z-score reads 15.24. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 15.24 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 15.24.

15 · Related companies · Internet Content & Information
CompanyScorePrice stageGrowth & earnings/35Capital efficiency/25Valuation/20Relative strength/20
1EverQuote, Inc.EVER 69.6/100Favorable setup71% evidence BREAKING OUT 28.7/35 Revenue 24.5% · PAT 100% · OPM change 7.5 pp 83% evidence 14.9/25 ROCE 11.9% · OPM 12.3% 76% evidence 11.5/20 P/E 5.2× · PEG — 15% evidence 14.5/20 RS sector 5.9% · RS bench -0.4% · 1Y 0.5%11 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 28.7 + 14.9 + 11.5 + 14.5 = 69.6 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
2Opera LimitedOPRA 67.7/100Favorable setup81% evidence FADING 24.2/35 Revenue 23.7% · PAT 38.1% · OPM change 2.1 pp 83% evidence 13.3/25 ROCE 3.1% · OPM 16.9% 76% evidence 14.5/20 P/E 11.3× · PEG 0.33 65% evidence 15.7/20 RS sector 19.8% · RS bench 14.5% · 1Y 28.8%9 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 24.2 + 13.3 + 14.5 + 15.7 = 67.7 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
3Match Group, Inc.MTCH 66.1/100Favorable setup81% evidence TURNING 22.4/35 Revenue 2% · PAT 21.6% · OPM change 6.6 pp 83% evidence 16.1/25 ROCE 6.9% · OPM 27.4% 76% evidence 13.6/20 P/E 11.7× · PEG 0.4 65% evidence 14.0/20 RS sector 12.9% · RS bench 7.6% · 1Y 14.3%5 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 22.4 + 16.1 + 13.6 + 14 = 66.1 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
4Taboola.com Ltd.TBLA 63.7/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence FADING 23.8/35 Revenue 9.6% · PAT 100% · OPM change 16.4 pp 62% evidence 12.6/25 ROCE 6% · OPM 14.9% 76% evidence 11.1/20 P/E 8.2× · PEG — 15% evidence 16.2/20 RS sector 24.8% · RS bench 19.8% · 1Y 61.3%11 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 23.8 + 12.6 + 11.1 + 16.2 = 63.7 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
5Alphabet Inc.GOOGL 56.6/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence ASLEEP 17.3/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 2.2 pp 45% evidence 16.6/25 ROCE 6.7% · OPM 36.1% 76% evidence 10.1/20 P/E 17.9× · PEG — 15% evidence 12.6/20 RS sector 13.4% · RS bench 9.7% · 1Y 87.5%7 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 17.3 + 16.6 + 10.1 + 12.6 = 56.6 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
6Spotify Technology S.A.this pageSPOT 56.5/100Mixed-positive evidence81% evidence TURNING 23.0/35 Revenue 8% · PAT 100% · OPM change 3.7 pp 83% evidence 14.8/25 ROCE 9.4% · OPM 15.8% 76% evidence 11.0/20 P/E 39× · PEG 0.91 65% evidence 7.7/20 RS sector -17.8% · RS bench -22.9% · 1Y -32.3%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 23 + 14.8 + 11 + 7.7 = 56.5 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
7JOYY Inc.JOYY 51.3/100Mixed-positive evidence81% evidence BREAKING OUT 10.4/35 Revenue 0.9% · PAT -86.8% · OPM change -1.2 pp 83% evidence 10.0/25 ROCE 0.1% · OPM 1.1% 76% evidence 14.6/20 P/E 13.5× · PEG 0.3 65% evidence 16.3/20 RS sector 12.8% · RS bench 7.9% · 1Y 47.8%5 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 10.4 + 10 + 14.6 + 16.3 = 51.3 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 7.9%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.
8Nebius Group N.V.NBIS 50.2/100Mixed-positive evidence74% evidence LEADER 24.6/35 Revenue 100% · PAT — · OPM change 204.2 pp 62% evidence 6.3/25 ROCE -1.1% · OPM -32.1% 76% evidence 5.3/20 P/E 32.4× · PEG 2.66 65% evidence 14.0/20 RS sector 57.1% · RS bench 54.1% · 1Y 228.1%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 24.6 + 6.3 + 5.3 + 14 = 50.2 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
9Reddit, Inc.RDDT 49.4/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence ASLEEP 23.2/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 26.6 pp 45% evidence 14.7/25 ROCE 8.1% · OPM 27.6% 76% evidence 9.0/20 P/E 40.4× · PEG — 15% evidence 2.5/20 RS sector -18.4% · RS bench -23.8% · 1Y -25.7%9 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 23.2 + 14.7 + 9 + 2.5 = 49.4 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
10Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.NXDR 49.2/100Thin evidence · provisional55% evidence BREAKING OUT 20.4/35 Revenue 6.8% · PAT — · OPM change 25 pp 62% evidence 4.3/25 ROCE -3.4% · OPM -24.9% 76% evidence 10.0/20 P/E — · PEG — 0% evidence 14.5/20 RS sector 12.9% · RS bench 7.1% · 1Y 11.1%12 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 20.4 + 4.3 + 10 + 14.5 = 49.2 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
11Weibo CorporationWB 46.0/100Mixed-negative evidence81% evidence BASING 13.4/35 Revenue 1.4% · PAT 5.7% · OPM change -1.5 pp 83% evidence 13.7/25 ROCE 1.9% · OPM 26.3% 76% evidence 16.3/20 P/E 6.1× · PEG 0.13 65% evidence 2.6/20 RS sector -20.9% · RS bench -25.7% · 1Y -18.3%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 13.4 + 13.7 + 16.3 + 2.6 = 46 · Decision use: Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity.
12Snap Inc.SNAP 44.7/100Mixed-negative evidence61% evidence BASING 21.8/35 Revenue 10.3% · PAT — · OPM change 9.3 pp 62% evidence 6.1/25 ROCE -1.2% · OPM -4.9% 76% evidence 10.0/20 P/E — · PEG — 0% evidence 6.8/20 RS sector -13.1% · RS bench -18.9% · 1Y -21.9%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 21.8 + 6.1 + 10 + 6.8 = 44.7 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
13Groupon, Inc.GRPN 43.9/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence BREAKING OUT 11.0/35 Revenue 2.7% · PAT — · OPM change -4.4 pp 62% evidence 6.4/25 ROCE -1.4% · OPM -2.8% 76% evidence 9.9/20 P/E 19.2× · PEG — 15% evidence 16.6/20 RS sector 41.7% · RS bench 33.1% · 1Y -16.6%12 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 11 + 6.4 + 9.9 + 16.6 = 43.9 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
14Meta Platforms, Inc.META 43.8/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence ASLEEP 14.1/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change -0.9 pp 45% evidence 16.0/25 ROCE 5.8% · OPM 40.6% 76% evidence 9.7/20 P/E 21.2× · PEG — 15% evidence 4.0/20 RS sector -14.5% · RS bench -19.1% · 1Y -23.6%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 14.1 + 16 + 9.7 + 4 = 43.8 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
15Zillow Group, Inc.ZG 41.0/100Mixed-negative evidence64% evidence BASING 21.5/35 Revenue 16.8% · PAT — · OPM change 6.6 pp 62% evidence 9.0/25 ROCE 0.8% · OPM 5.1% 76% evidence 8.5/20 P/E 165.6× · PEG — 15% evidence 2.0/20 RS sector -35.9% · RS bench -40.9% · 1Y -52.2%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 21.5 + 9 + 8.5 + 2 = 41 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
16Yelp Inc.YELP 40.9/100Mixed-negative evidence75% evidence BASING 13.0/35 Revenue 2% · PAT -2.1% · OPM change -0.6 pp 83% evidence 12.6/25 ROCE 3.3% · OPM 7.6% 76% evidence 8.4/20 P/E 11.3× · PEG 2.14 65% evidence 6.9/20 RS sector -8.1% · RS bench -13.4% · 1Y -14.2%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 13 + 12.6 + 8.4 + 6.9 = 40.9 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
17Pinterest, Inc.PINS 40.1/100Mixed-negative evidence71% evidence BREAKING OUT 12.0/35 Revenue 16.3% · PAT -82.4% · OPM change -3.9 pp 83% evidence 6.8/25 ROCE -1.8% · OPM -8% 76% evidence 9.4/20 P/E 38.2× · PEG — 15% evidence 11.9/20 RS sector -1.2% · RS bench -8.2% · 1Y -27.2%7 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 12 + 6.8 + 9.4 + 11.9 = 40.1 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
18WEBTOON Entertainment Inc.WBTN 39.0/100Thin evidence · provisional55% evidence ASLEEP 18.1/35 Revenue 2.2% · PAT — · OPM change 5.7 pp 62% evidence 7.1/25 ROCE -0.6% · OPM -2.5% 76% evidence 10.0/20 P/E — · PEG — 0% evidence 3.8/20 RS sector -29.9% · RS bench -34.5% · 1Y 6.5%5 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 18.1 + 7.1 + 10 + 3.8 = 39 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
19Upwork Inc.UPWK 37.6/100Mixed-negative evidence65% evidence TURNING 10.8/35 Revenue 2.5% · PAT -53.6% · OPM change -3.4 pp 83% evidence 13.0/25 ROCE 4.2% · OPM 16.7% 76% evidence 10.4/20 P/E 13.5× · PEG — 15% evidence 3.4/20 RS sector -34.7% · RS bench -39.5% · 1Y -26.5%1 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 10.8 + 13 + 10.4 + 3.4 = 37.6 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
20People IncorporatedPPLI 36.1/100Mixed-negative evidence64% evidence TURNING 9.2/35 Revenue -9.4% · PAT — · OPM change -14.5 pp 62% evidence 6.8/25 ROCE -0.6% · OPM -9.5% 76% evidence 8.7/20 P/E 108.2× · PEG — 15% evidence 11.4/20 RS sector 11.5% · RS bench 7.2% · 1Y 35.6%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 9.2 + 6.8 + 8.7 + 11.4 = 36.1 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
21Genius Sports LimitedGENI 35.0/100Thin evidence · provisional55% evidence BREAKING OUT 13.4/35 Revenue 33.3% · PAT — · OPM change -8.8 pp 62% evidence 4.3/25 ROCE -5.8% · OPM -23% 76% evidence 10.0/20 P/E — · PEG — 0% evidence 7.3/20 RS sector -5.6% · RS bench -13.7% · 1Y -34.8%9 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 13.4 + 4.3 + 10 + 7.3 = 35 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
22RUM Group Inc.RUM 32.7/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence ASLEEP 13.1/35 Revenue 1% · PAT — · OPM change -0.1 pp 62% evidence 3.4/25 ROCE -12.6% · OPM -153.6% 76% evidence 8.9/20 P/E 47.1× · PEG — 15% evidence 7.3/20 RS sector -7.5% · RS bench -12.4% · 1Y -18.4%8 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 13.1 + 3.4 + 8.9 + 7.3 = 32.7 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
23Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.DJT 30.7/100Thin evidence · provisional57% evidence TURNING 7.2/35 Revenue 0% · PAT — · OPM change -28873.5 pp 62% evidence 5.2/25 ROCE -27.2% · OPM — 61% evidence 10.0/20 P/E — · PEG — 0% evidence 8.3/20 RS sector -16.8% · RS bench -22.9% · 1Y -39.1%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 7.2 + 5.2 + 10 + 8.3 = 30.7 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
24StubHub Holdings, Inc.STUB 41.3/100Thin evidence · provisional41% evidence BREAKING OUT 12.7/35 Revenue -0.8% · PAT — · OPM change -0.9 pp 62% evidence 8.6/25 ROCE 0.6% · OPM 5.8% 76% evidence 10.0/20 P/E — · PEG — 0% evidence 10.0/20 RS sector — · RS bench — · 1Y —9 of 12 weeks ahead 0% evidence
Exact sum: 12.7 + 8.6 + 10 + 10 = 41.3 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

Missing observations are not scored as bad. Their missing weight lowers confidence and pulls the final score toward neutral. PEG is not shown when the ratio cannot mean anything: the company must be making a profit, its price-to-earnings must be positive, and its three-year earnings growth must fall between 5% and 60%. Dividing a price multiple by a loss, or by growth measured off a tiny base, produces a number that looks precise and tells you nothing. Under relative strength, one mark per week shows the last 12 weeks: a mark is filled where the company led S&P 500 by 5% or more over the 13 weeks ending that week, which is the same test used everywhere on this site. Price stage places the company on the same six-step curve the sector itself is placed on — basing, turning, breaking out, leader, fading, asleep — read from how many weeks running it has led S&P 500 and whether that lead is widening or shrinking. It describes where the PRICE stands, not the earnings trajectory and not a recommendation, and it is left blank for a company whose weekly history is too short or too stale to read.

16 · Frequently asked questions

Frequently asked questions

What is Spotify Technology S.A.'s stock price today?

Spotify Technology S.A. trades at $478, −23.8% over the past year. The company is valued at $98.0 B. The stock sits at 19% of its 52-week range of $418–$735, −8.4% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a downtrend, 17 weeks in. — as of 5 August 2026.

What were Spotify Technology S.A.'s latest quarterly results?

Spotify Technology S.A. reported revenue of $4.5 B and net profit of $0.7 B for the Mar 26 quarter. Revenue rose 8.1% and profit rose 213.0% year on year. Earnings per share were $3.45. The operating margin was 15.7%, 3.5 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 5 August 2026.

What is Spotify Technology S.A.'s revenue?

Spotify Technology S.A. reported revenue of $4.5 B in the Mar 26 quarter, +8.1% year on year. For the full FY25 fiscal year, revenue was $17.2 B (+9.7%). Over the last 4 years revenue compounded at 15.5% a year. — as of 5 August 2026.

What is Spotify Technology S.A.'s profit?

Spotify Technology S.A. earned $0.7 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +213.0% year on year — the 3rd straight quarter of growth. Full-year FY25 profit was $2.2 B. The operating margin ran 15.7% in the latest quarter. — as of 5 August 2026.

What is Spotify Technology S.A.'s market cap?

Spotify Technology S.A.'s market capitalisation is $98.0 B at a stock price of $478. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 5 August 2026.

Does Spotify Technology S.A. pay a dividend?

No — Spotify Technology S.A. has declared no dividend per share in any of its last 12 reported quarters, so there is no payout history and no yield to quote. That is a reading of the filed statements, not an estimate. — as of 5 August 2026.

Is Spotify Technology S.A. growing?

Yes — Spotify Technology S.A. is growing: latest-quarter revenue +8.1% year on year, profit +213.0%, and the margin +3.5 pp at 15.7%. The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 5 August 2026.

How is Spotify Technology S.A. performing?

Spotify Technology S.A. is in a downtrend, 17 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 8.1% and profit rose 213.0% year on year. Against the S&P 500 it has been ahead on a trailing-13-week view for 2 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 5 August 2026.

Is Spotify Technology S.A. in an uptrend?

No — the price is in a downtrend (week 17 of stage 4), trading −8.4% versus its 200-day average and at 19% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 5 August 2026.

Is Spotify Technology S.A. beating the market?

On recent form, yes — Spotify Technology S.A. has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 2 straight weeks, the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 8.3 years the stock moved +223% against the S&P 500's +197% — ahead of the index over the full window. — as of 5 August 2026.

Will Spotify Technology S.A.'s stock price go up?

This page publishes no price forecast for Spotify Technology S.A. What it measures instead: the stock price is $478, the price is in a downtrend 17 weeks in. Direction is not something this site claims to know. — as of 5 August 2026.

Is the market betting against Spotify Technology S.A.?

Somewhat — short interest is 4.2% of Spotify Technology S.A.'s tradable float, about 3.9 days to cover at typical volumes. A moderate reading: some money is positioned against it. With no quarter-by-quarter holder register here, short interest is the cleanest crowd read we hold — as of 5 August 2026.

Does Spotify Technology S.A. have too much debt?

No — Spotify Technology S.A.'s debt-to-equity is 0.05. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so the latest reading is the cleanest hold. The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed — as of 5 August 2026.

What is Spotify Technology S.A.'s capex?

Spotify Technology S.A. spent $0.0 B on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY25 alone that was $0.1 B. — as of 5 August 2026.

What is Spotify Technology S.A.'s cash flow?

Spotify Technology S.A. generated $2.9 B of operating cash flow in FY25 and $2.9 B of free cash flow after $0.1 B of capital spending. Reported profit that year was $2.2 B, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. — as of 5 August 2026.

Is Spotify Technology S.A.'s profit real cash?

Yes — over the last 2 fiscal years, 156% of Spotify Technology S.A.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY25, operating cash was $2.9 B against reported profit of $2.2 B. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 5 August 2026.

How financially safe is Spotify Technology S.A.?

On the balance sheet, the Z-score reads 15.24 — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the distress zone. That sits well clear of trouble. — as of 5 August 2026.

Where is Spotify Technology S.A. in its business cycle?

Spotify Technology S.A.'s FY25 operating margin was 12.8%, against a 5-year band of −5.6%–12.8%: the top of the band — a record year. Record profitability is late-cycle territory: every ratio flatters at the top, and the story leans on margins holding. The latest quarter ran 15.7%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 5 August 2026.

What could break the Spotify Technology S.A. story?

The sharpest disagreement: annual EPS moved +91.1% against a −23.8% price move — the market has not yet caught up with the delivery. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 5 August 2026.

Is Spotify Technology S.A. a stock worth studying right now?

This is not investment advice. The machine read: Spotify Technology S.A.'s earnings have outrun its stock. EPS grew +91.1% in a year against a −23.8% price move. The sharpest open question: whether the price catches up with earnings that have already moved. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 5 August 2026.

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