Sector Alpha Week of 2026-08-05
Sector Alpha — machine-written from the numbers · Data as of 2026-08-05

Smith Douglas Homes Corp.

SDHC
Real Estate · Real Estate - Development

Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s three tracks disagree. Price, valuation and the earnings engine each tell a different story — the next quarter or two settles it.

Biggest watch item: the P/E sits at the 82nd percentile of its own range — the multiple has already done part of the work.

The price is between stages while the P/E sits at the 82nd percentile of its own 1-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read deteriorating — profit −100.0% year on year, and 23% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: the next one or two quarters of delivery.

Stage
Deteriorating
partial read
Price
$15.2
−21.6% 1Y
P/E
16.0×
82nd pctile
of its own 1-year range
Revenue (Mar 26)
$0.2 B
−4.5% YoY
Profit (Mar 26)
$0.0 B
−100.0% YoY
Operating margin
0.0%
−9.1 pp YoY
ROE
13%
FY25
ROIC
11.5%
vs WACC 8.7% → +2.8 pp
Cash conversion
23%
of profit, last 3 FY
01 · Price story

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. trades at $15.2, between stages. That is −3.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 37% of a 52-week range of $11 to $22. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 4 straight weeks.

Today the stock is between stages. At $15.2 it trades −3.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 37% of its 52-week range ($11–$22).

Aug 26: $15.2 Weekly closing price ($) with 50- and 200-day averages; shaded bands mark the price stage (grey base, green advance, amber top, red decline). 1-year window.
−3.7% versus the 200-day line, week — of stage —
Price50-day avg200-day avg
$23.0$19.9$16.7$13.5$10.3$$15$16Jul 25Oct 25Jan 26May 26Aug 26
$23.0$19.9$16.7$13.5$10.3$$15$16Jul 25Jan 26Aug 26
Beating or trailing, week by week since 2025 Each cell is one week from 2025 to now (57 weeks): the stock's trailing 13-week return minus the S&P 500's, green ahead / red behind (±25% ramp). Grey cells are the 13-week warm-up or weeks where the S&P 500 reading is not held.
trailing 13-week return vs the S&P 500
Jul 25Aug 26

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.1 years the stock moved −27% while the S&P 500 moved +24% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 4 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

02 · Valuation

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. trades at 16.0× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (82nd percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 13.9×, measured across 1.1 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 16.0× is at the pricey end of its own range (82nd percentile), against a long-run median of 13.9× measured over 1.1 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

P/E 16.0× vs a 13.9× long-run median P/E, weekly (left axis); earnings per share, trailing twelve months, weekly step line (right axis). 1.1-year window. The eps (ttm) bars are red where the reading is lower than the quarter before.
at the pricey end of its own range (82nd percentile)
P/EMedianEPS (TTM) (quarterly)
18.2×$1.715.9×$1.313.6×$0.911.2×$0.48.9×$0.0×$16.04×$1Jul 25Oct 25Jan 26May 26Aug 26
18.2×$1.715.9×$1.313.6×$0.911.2×$0.48.9×$0.0×$16.04×$1Jul 25Jan 26Aug 26
PEG 9.62 PEG ratio per quarter — the P/E divided by the earnings-growth rate. The dashed line marks 1.0: below it the growth is cheap against the multiple, above it the price already prices the growth in. Last 9 quarters; values above 6 pinned at the top.
above 1.0, the multiple already banks the growth
PEGPEG = 1.0
6.4×4.9×3.5×2.0×0.6××6.00×Mar 24Sep 24Mar 25Sep 25Mar 26
6.4×4.9×3.5×2.0×0.6××6.00×Mar 24Mar 25Mar 26
P/E
16.0×
82nd percentile of 1y
PEG
n/m
3-year earnings growth is negative

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −34.3% against a −21.6% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

03 · Stage: Deteriorating

Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — revenue and profit growth are shrinking (revenue growth −5.9% latest against +32.2% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE slipping at 14.0%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Growth, year by year: revenue −1.0% in FY25, profit −36.4% Year-over-year growth per fiscal year, %: revenue (left axis); net profit and EPS (right axis — profit growth swings far wider). Zero line drawn.
Revenue YoYProfit YoYEPS YoY
50%152%36%84%23%17%8.9%−51%−4.8%−119%%%−1%−36.4%FY21FY23FY25
50%152%36%84%23%17%8.9%−51%−4.8%−119%%%−1%−36.4%FY21FY23FY25
Three growth curves, twelve quarters Year-on-year growth of trailing-twelve-month revenue (left axis), profit and EPS (right axis — they swing far wider), % at each quarter-end. A missing point means that reading is not held for the quarter.
the trajectory the stage is read from · revenue rolling over, profit rolling over
RevenueProfitEPS
35%68%24%23%13%−22%2.1%−67%−8.9%−112%%%−5.9%−45.5%−45.4%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
35%68%24%23%13%−22%2.1%−67%−8.9%−112%%%−5.9%−45.5%−45.4%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
ROCE Trailing-twelve-month operating profit (before interest and tax) as a share of average capital employed — total assets minus current liabilities, the standard textbook basis, %.
the return curve, computed quarterly
ROCE
83%64%46%27%8.9%%14%Jun 23Dec 23Sep 24Jun 25Mar 26
83%64%46%27%8.9%%14%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
Revenue growth
Falling
latest −5.9% · span −5.9% to +32.2%
Profit growth
Falling
latest −45.5% · span −45.5% to +55.6%
ROCE
Falling
latest 14.0% · span 14.0%–77.8%

🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

Compound annual growth rate (%) Compound annual growth rate over each window, %. Revenue, profit and EPS from fiscal-year figures; stock price is the price CAGR over the same spans. A dash = that window is not held, or the base was a loss.
1yr3yr5yr10yr
Revenue−1.0%+8.5%
Profit−36.4%−20.6%
EPS−34.3%−24.8%
Stock price−21.6%
Revenue YoY (Mar 26)
−4.5%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Profit YoY (Mar 26)
−100.0%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Revenue 10y
16.9%
long-run compound pace
04 · 4-Factor Sector Score

4-Factor Sector Score

33.1/100 — rank 8 of 10 in Real Estate - Development · 65% evidence confidence

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. scores 33.1 out of 100 against the 10 companies it is compared with in Real Estate - Development, ranking 8. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 7.2 + 9.9 + 10 + 6 = 33.1. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

05 · Revenue

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. reported $0.2 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −4.5% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at 16.9% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $1.0 B. The last four reported quarters add to $0.9 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $1.0 B (−1.0% on the year), capping 4 years at 16.9% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $0.2 B, −4.5% year on year.

FY25 revenue $1.0 B (−1.0% YoY) Revenue bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 5-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
16.9% a year over 4 years
RevenueYoY growth
1.150%0.836%0.523%0.38.9%0.0−4.8%$ B%$1B−1%FY21FY23FY25
1.150%0.836%0.523%0.38.9%0.0−4.8%$ B%$1B−1%FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: $0.2 B (−4.5% YoY) Quarterly revenue bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
Revenue (quarterly)YoY growth
0.3144%0.2329%0.1615%0.080.0%0.00−14%$ B%$0B−4.5%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
0.3144%0.2329%0.1615%0.080.0%0.00−14%$ B%$0B−4.5%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −5.5% growth against the decade's 16.9% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −5.9% over the last 4 quarters against +9.7%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit −45.5% vs −26.1%/yr — rolling over.

06 · Operating margin

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s operating margin is 0.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, −9.1 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 7.2% to 18.4%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 0.0%, −9.1 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 7.2%–18.4%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −9.1 pp year on year while gross margin went −3.7 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

FY25: 7.2% Operating margin by fiscal year, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). 5-year window.
within a 7.2–18.4% band over 5 years
operating marginYoY change (pp)
19%7.9%16%4.4%13%1.0%9.6%−2.5%6.3%−6.0%%%7.2%−5%FY21FY23FY25
19%7.9%16%4.4%13%1.0%9.6%−2.5%6.3%−6.0%%%7.2%−5%FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: 0.0% operating margin (−9.1 pp YoY) Quarterly operating margin, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). Last 12 quarters. Operating profit as a share of revenue, per quarter.
Operating marginYoY change (pp)
18%0.0%13%−2.5%8.3%−4.9%3.5%−7.3%−1.3%−9.8%%%0%−9.1%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
18%0.0%13%−2.5%8.3%−4.9%3.5%−7.3%−1.3%−9.8%%%0%−9.1%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
07 · Net profit

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. earned $0.0 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −100.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.1 B. The 4-year compound rate is 3.9%. That is 0.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.0 B.

Mar 26 profit was $0.0 B, −100.0% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.1 B (−36.4%), and the 4-year compound rate is 3.9%.

FY25 profit $0.1 B (−36.4% YoY) Net profit bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 5-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
3.9% a year over 4 years
Net profitYoY growth
0.15147%0.1198%0.0848%0.040.0%0.00−50%$ B%$0B−36.4%FY21FY23FY25
0.15147%0.1198%0.0848%0.040.0%0.00−50%$ B%$0B−36.4%FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: $0.0 B (−100.0% YoY) Quarterly net profit bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
Net profit (quarterly)YoY growth
0.0444%0.035.3%0.02−33%0.01−72%0.00−111%$ B%$0B−100%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
0.0444%0.035.3%0.02−33%0.01−72%0.00−111%$ B%$0B−100%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed −4.5% and the margin −9.1 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −45.8% vs revenue −5.5%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

08 · Cash flow — the router

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 23% of Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY25 that was $−0.0 B of operating cash against $0.1 B of profit. After $0.0 B of capital spending, $−0.0 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $−0.0 B against reported profit of $0.1 B, leaving free cash of $−0.0 B after $0.0 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 23% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

FY25: CFO $−0.0 B vs profit $0.1 B Operating cash flow and net profit by fiscal year, $ B; the line is free cash flow (CFO minus capital spending). 5-year window, annual resolution.
23% of 3-year profit arrived as cash
Operating cashNet profitFree cash
0.150.100.050.00−0.05$ B$0B$0B$0BFY21FY23FY25
0.150.100.050.00−0.05$ B$0B$0B$0BFY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: operating cash $0.0 B Operating cash per quarter, $ B (bars); conversion = operating cash as % of net profit (line, right). Last 12 quarters. Dashed line = 100%.
Operating cash (quarterly)Conversion100%
0.02120%0.0148%−0.01−25%−0.02−98%−0.03−170%$ B%$0B50%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
0.02120%0.0148%−0.01−25%−0.02−98%−0.03−170%$ B%$0B50%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

🚨 Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

09 · Where the cash goes

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $0.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 0.0% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $0.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

FY25: capex $0.0 B Capital spending per fiscal year, $ B (bars).
steady investment
Capex
0.0110.0080.0050.0030.000$ B$0BFY21FY23FY25
0.0110.0080.0050.0030.000$ B$0BFY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: capex $0.0 B in the quarter Capital spending per quarter, $ B (bars, left); free cash flow, $ B (line, right). Last 12 quarters.
Capex (quarterly)Free cash
1.20.020.60.010.0−0.01−0.6−0.03−1.2−0.04$ B$ B$0B$0BJun 23Sep 24Mar 26
1.20.020.60.010.0−0.01−0.6−0.03−1.2−0.04$ B$ B$0B$0BJun 23Sep 24Mar 26

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

10 · Return on equity

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. earns a ROE of 16% in FY25. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +2.8 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 7.2% net margin on 1.73× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is 16%.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 7.2% net margin × 1.73× asset turns × 1.27× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 15.8% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 11.5% − 8.7% = a +2.8 pp spread. The 8.7% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

FY25: ROE 16% Return on equity by fiscal year, % (line); ROIC by fiscal year, % (line). 5-year window, dips included. Dashed line = the 8.7% cost of capital used on this page.
the full ladder
ROEROIC (annual)WACC
102%77%52%27%1.8%%15.9%16.3%FY21FY23FY25
102%77%52%27%1.8%%15.9%16.3%FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: ROIC 11.7% (TTM) vs WACC 8.7% Trailing-twelve-month ROIC and ROE, per quarter, %; dashed line = the cost of capital. Last 12 quarters, put on a trailing-twelve-month basis and anchored to the annual figure.
ROIC (TTM)ROE (TTM)WACC
139%104%69%34%0.0%%11.7%13.4%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
139%104%69%34%0.0%%11.7%13.4%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
11 · Dividend

Dividend

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. pays no dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.

12 · Debt

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. carries total debt of $0.1 B against shareholder equity of $0.4 B as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.16 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.70 in FY21 to 0.09 in FY25. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of $0.1 B against shareholder equity of $0.4 B — a debt-to-equity of 0.16. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.70 (FY21) to 0.09 (FY25). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

FY25: debt $0.0 B at 0.09× equity Total debt by fiscal year, $ B (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). 5-year window.
Total debtDebt-to-equity
0.090.8×0.060.6×0.040.3×0.020.1×0.00−0.1×$ B×$0B0.09×FY21FY23FY25
0.090.8×0.060.6×0.040.3×0.020.1×0.00−0.1×$ B×$0B0.09×FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: debt $0.1 B, debt-to-equity 0.16 Total debt per quarter, $ B (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). Last 12 quarters.
Total debt (quarterly)Debt-to-equity
0.090.5×0.060.3×0.040.2×0.020.1×0.000.0×$ B×$0B0.16×Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
0.090.5×0.060.3×0.040.2×0.020.1×0.000.0×$ B×$0B0.16×Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
13 · Ownership

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

16.6% of Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s tradable float is currently sold short — a large bloc is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 12.3 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

The latest reading: 16.6% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 12.3 days to buy those positions back. A large bloc is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.

Short interest
16.6%
of the tradable float
Days to cover
12.3
at typical volumes

Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.

14 · Safety line

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Smith Douglas Homes Corp.: the Z-score reads 3.15. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 3.15 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 3.15.

15 · Related companies · Real Estate - Development
CompanyScorePrice stageGrowth & earnings/35Capital efficiency/25Valuation/20Relative strength/20
1AMREP CorporationAXR 59.9/100Mixed-positive evidence75% evidence BASING 21.5/35 Revenue -10.2% · PAT 16.7% · OPM change 14.9 pp 83% evidence 15.7/25 ROCE 2.3% · OPM 20.6% 76% evidence 15.7/20 P/E 8.7× · PEG 0.22 65% evidence 7.0/20 RS sector -6.1% · RS bench -13.9% · 1Y 2.8%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 21.5 + 15.7 + 15.7 + 7 = 59.9 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
2Forestar Group Inc.FOR 57.1/100Thin evidence · provisional52% evidence FADING 18.2/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change -0.3 pp 45% evidence 14.8/25 ROCE 1.7% · OPM 11.3% 76% evidence 10.4/20 P/E 9.5× · PEG — 15% evidence 13.7/20 RS sector 6.4% · RS bench -2.6% · 1Y 12.9%5 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 18.2 + 14.8 + 10.4 + 13.7 = 57.1 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
3Century Communities, Inc.CCS 54.7/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence TURNING 15.3/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change -2.2 pp 45% evidence 11.6/25 ROCE 1.3% · OPM 4.2% 76% evidence 9.6/20 P/E 15.7× · PEG — 15% evidence 18.2/20 RS sector 10.4% · RS bench 0.7% · 1Y 15.6%5 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 15.3 + 11.6 + 9.6 + 18.2 = 54.7 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
4Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A.B. de C.V.VTMX 53.3/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence ASLEEP 17.8/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change -1.3 pp 45% evidence 15.2/25 ROCE 1.4% · OPM 77.6% 76% evidence 11.1/20 P/E 7.5× · PEG — 15% evidence 9.2/20 RS sector 4.3% · RS bench -4% · 1Y 20%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 17.8 + 15.2 + 11.1 + 9.2 = 53.3 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
5Logistic Properties of the AmericasLPA 41.6/100Mixed-negative evidence65% evidence 17.8/35 Revenue 17.8% · PAT -75% · OPM change 6.3 pp 83% evidence 11.3/25 ROCE 1.3% · OPM 56.2% 76% evidence 8.9/20 P/E 33× · PEG — 15% evidence 3.6/20 RS sector -15.8% · RS bench -24.3% · 1Y -53.6%3 of 8 weeks ahead to 2026-07-10 70% evidence
Exact sum: 17.8 + 11.3 + 8.9 + 3.6 = 41.6 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
6Five Point Holdings, LLCFPH 40.4/100Thin evidence · provisional52% evidence TURNING 15.3/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change -24.2 pp 45% evidence 5.5/25 ROCE -0.2% · OPM -71% 76% evidence 11.5/20 P/E 7.4× · PEG — 15% evidence 8.1/20 RS sector -5.2% · RS bench -13.6% · 1Y -1.5%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 15.3 + 5.5 + 11.5 + 8.1 = 40.4 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
7Belpointe PREP, LLCOZ 36.7/100Thin evidence · provisional55% evidence BASING 20.3/35 Revenue 100% · PAT — · OPM change 125.5 pp 62% evidence 3.0/25 ROCE -1.1% · OPM -133.2% 76% evidence 10.0/20 P/E — · PEG — 0% evidence 3.4/20 RS sector -16.3% · RS bench -24% · 1Y -24.7%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 20.3 + 3 + 10 + 3.4 = 36.7 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
8Smith Douglas Homes Corp.this pageSDHC 33.1/100Adverse evidence65% evidence TURNING 7.2/35 Revenue -5.8% · PAT -52.3% · OPM change -6.9 pp 83% evidence 9.9/25 ROCE 1.1% · OPM 2.2% 76% evidence 10.0/20 P/E 13.5× · PEG — 15% evidence 6.0/20 RS sector -8.5% · RS bench -17% · 1Y -17.1%3 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 7.2 + 9.9 + 10 + 6 = 33.1 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
9Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.HHH 29.7/100Adverse evidence71% evidence ASLEEP 8.3/35 Revenue -15.7% · PAT -62.5% · OPM change -2.5 pp 83% evidence 9.8/25 ROCE 0.6% · OPM 21.5% 76% evidence 9.3/20 P/E 31× · PEG — 15% evidence 2.3/20 RS sector -13.1% · RS bench -20.8% · 1Y -7.7%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 8.3 + 9.8 + 9.3 + 2.3 = 29.7 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
10Sky Harbour Group CorporationSKYH 57.4/100Thin evidence · provisional35% evidence TURNING 18.6/35 Revenue 63.2% · PAT — · OPM change — 24% evidence 10.9/25 ROCE — · OPM — 15% evidence 8.5/20 P/E 240.8× · PEG — 15% evidence 19.4/20 RS sector 11.4% · RS bench 1.8% · 1Y 6%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 18.6 + 10.9 + 8.5 + 19.4 = 57.4 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

Missing observations are not scored as bad. Their missing weight lowers confidence and pulls the final score toward neutral. PEG is not shown when the ratio cannot mean anything: the company must be making a profit, its price-to-earnings must be positive, and its three-year earnings growth must fall between 5% and 60%. Dividing a price multiple by a loss, or by growth measured off a tiny base, produces a number that looks precise and tells you nothing. Under relative strength, one mark per week shows the last 12 weeks: a mark is filled where the company led S&P 500 by 5% or more over the 13 weeks ending that week, which is the same test used everywhere on this site. Price stage places the company on the same six-step curve the sector itself is placed on — basing, turning, breaking out, leader, fading, asleep — read from how many weeks running it has led S&P 500 and whether that lead is widening or shrinking. It describes where the PRICE stands, not the earnings trajectory and not a recommendation, and it is left blank for a company whose weekly history is too short or too stale to read.

16 · Frequently asked questions

Frequently asked questions

What is Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s stock price today?

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. trades at $15.2, −21.6% over the past year. The company is valued at $1.0 B. The stock sits at 37% of its 52-week range of $11–$22, −3.7% versus its 200-day average. Against the S&P 500 it has been ahead on a trailing-13-week view for 4 weeks. — as of 5 August 2026.

What were Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s latest quarterly results?

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. reported revenue of $0.2 B and net profit of $0.0 B for the Mar 26 quarter. Revenue fell 4.5% and profit fell 100.0% year on year. Earnings per share were $0.06. The operating margin was 0.0%, 9.1 pp lower than a year earlier. — as of 5 August 2026.

What is Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s revenue?

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. reported revenue of $0.2 B in the Mar 26 quarter, −4.5% year on year. For the full FY25 fiscal year, revenue was $1.0 B (−1.0%). Over the last 4 years revenue compounded at 16.9% a year. — as of 5 August 2026.

What is Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s profit?

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. earned $0.0 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −100.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.1 B. The operating margin ran 0.0% in the latest quarter. — as of 5 August 2026.

What is Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s market cap?

Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s market capitalisation is $1.0 B at a stock price of $15.2. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 5 August 2026.

What is Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s P/E ratio?

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. trades at a P/E of 16.0×, at the 82nd percentile of its own 1-year range, against a long-run median of 13.9×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 5 August 2026.

Does Smith Douglas Homes Corp. pay a dividend?

No — Smith Douglas Homes Corp. has declared no dividend per share in any of its last 12 reported quarters, so there is no payout history and no yield to quote. That is a reading of the filed statements, not an estimate. — as of 5 August 2026.

Is Smith Douglas Homes Corp. overvalued?

On its own history, Smith Douglas Homes Corp. looks expensive against its own history: its P/E of 16.0× sits at the 82nd percentile of its 1-year range (long-run median 13.9×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. — as of 5 August 2026.

Is Smith Douglas Homes Corp. growing?

Not right now — Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s latest numbers are shrinking: latest-quarter revenue −4.5% year on year, profit −100.0%, and the margin −9.1 pp at 0.0%. The 4-year compound rates are 16.9% (revenue) and 3.9% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: deteriorating — as of 5 August 2026.

How is Smith Douglas Homes Corp. performing?

Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s latest readings are below. Its latest quarter's revenue fell 4.5% and profit fell 100.0% year on year. Against the S&P 500 it has been ahead on a trailing-13-week view for 4 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 5 August 2026.

What stage is Smith Douglas Homes Corp. in?

Deteriorating — revenue and profit growth are shrinking (revenue growth −5.9% latest against +32.2% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE slipping at 14.0%. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth −5.9% latest, profit growth −45.5% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 5 August 2026.

Is Smith Douglas Homes Corp. beating the market?

On recent form, yes — Smith Douglas Homes Corp. has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 4 straight weeks, the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 1.1 years the stock moved −27% against the S&P 500's +24% — behind the index over the full window. — as of 5 August 2026.

Will Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s stock price go up?

This page publishes no price forecast for Smith Douglas Homes Corp. What it measures instead: the stock price is $15.2. Its P/E of 16.0× sits at the 82nd percentile of its own 1-year range. Direction is not something this site claims to know. — as of 5 August 2026.

Is the market betting against Smith Douglas Homes Corp.?

Yes — short interest is 16.6% of Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s tradable float, about 12.3 days to cover at typical volumes. A crowded short: a large bloc is positioned against it. With no quarter-by-quarter holder register here, short interest is the cleanest crowd read we hold — as of 5 August 2026.

Does Smith Douglas Homes Corp. have too much debt?

No — Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s debt-to-equity is 0.16. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so the latest reading is the cleanest hold. The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed — as of 5 August 2026.

What is Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s capex?

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. spent $0.0 B on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY25 alone that was $0.0 B. — as of 5 August 2026.

What is Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s cash flow?

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. generated $−0.0 B of operating cash flow in FY25 and $−0.0 B of free cash flow after $0.0 B of capital spending. Reported profit that year was $0.1 B, so operating cash ran behind profit. — as of 5 August 2026.

Is Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s profit real cash?

Not fully — over the last 3 fiscal years, 23% of Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY25, operating cash was $−0.0 B against reported profit of $0.1 B. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 5 August 2026.

How financially safe is Smith Douglas Homes Corp.?

On the balance sheet, the Z-score reads 3.15 — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the distress zone. That sits well clear of trouble. — as of 5 August 2026.

Where is Smith Douglas Homes Corp. in its business cycle?

Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s FY25 operating margin was 7.2%, against a 5-year band of 7.2%–18.4%: the low end of its own band, which is where recoveries start when they come. The latest quarter ran 0.0%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 5 August 2026.

What could break the Smith Douglas Homes Corp. story?

Biggest watch item: the P/E sits at the 82nd percentile of its own range — the multiple has already done part of the work. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 5 August 2026.

Is Smith Douglas Homes Corp. a stock worth studying right now?

This is not investment advice. The machine read: Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s three tracks disagree. Price, valuation and the earnings engine each tell a different story — the next quarter or two settles it. The sharpest open question: the next one or two quarters of delivery. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 5 August 2026.

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