Sector Alpha Week of 2026-08-05
Sector Alpha — machine-written from the numbers · Data as of 2026-08-05

MBIA Inc.

MBI
Financials · Insurance - Specialty

MBIA Inc.'s balance sheet is under water — net worth is negative, so it owes more than it owns. This is a distressed, high-risk situation — the equity can be wiped by dilution or restructuring before operations recover. Not a value setup.

Biggest watch item: the price is not yet in a confirmed uptrend — timing risk, not thesis risk.

The price is between stages. But the balance sheet is under water: net worth is negative, so shareholders sit behind everyone the company owes. What settles it: whether the business can earn its way back to positive equity before dilution or restructuring gets there first.

Price
$5.3
−5.9% 1Y
Revenue (Mar 26)
$0.0 B
+100.0% YoY
Profit (Mar 26)
$−0.0 B
Net margin
−200.0%
+400.0 pp YoY
ROA
1.28%
latest
01 · Price story

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

MBIA Inc. trades at $5.3, between stages. That is −18.5% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 5% of a 52-week range of $5 to $8. On relative strength it is currently behind the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view (3 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is between stages. At $5.3 it trades −18.5% versus its 200-day average and sits at 5% of its 52-week range ($5–$8).

Aug 26: $5.3 Weekly closing price ($) with 50- and 200-day averages; shaded bands mark the price stage (grey base, green advance, amber top, red decline). 1-year window.
−18.5% versus the 200-day line, week — of stage —
Price50-day avg200-day avg
$8.2$7.2$6.2$5.2$4.1$$5$7Jul 25Oct 25Jan 26May 26Aug 26
$8.2$7.2$6.2$5.2$4.1$$5$7Jul 25Jan 26Aug 26
Beating or trailing, week by week since 2025 Each cell is one week from 2025 to now (57 weeks): the stock's trailing 13-week return minus the S&P 500's, green ahead / red behind (±25% ramp). Grey cells are the 13-week warm-up or weeks where the S&P 500 reading is not held.
trailing 13-week return vs the S&P 500
Jul 25Aug 26

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.1 years the stock moved +19% while the S&P 500 moved +24% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (3 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-17) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

02 · Valuation

Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each $1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.

P/BV does not price MBIA Inc. — earnings are negative, so there is no multiple to rank against its own history. The revenue and margin lines below are where a turn, when it comes, would show first. A P/BV returns here the first period the bottom line turns positive.

With earnings negative, P/BV does not price — there is no multiple to rank against its own history. The revenue and margin lines below are where the turn, when it comes, will show first.

P/BV
earnings negative
PEG
n/m
not derivable — 3-year earnings growth unavailable

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.

03 · Stage: No read

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

MBIA Inc. reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 10 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.

Growth, year by year: revenue +100.0% in FY25 Year-over-year growth per fiscal year, %: revenue (left axis); net profit and EPS (right axis — profit growth swings far wider). Zero line drawn.
Revenue YoY
331%217%103%−11%−125%%100%FY21FY23FY25
331%217%103%−11%−125%%100%FY21FY23FY25
Three growth curves, twelve quarters Year-on-year growth of trailing-twelve-month revenue (left axis), profit and EPS (right axis — they swing far wider), % at each quarter-end. A missing point means that reading is not held for the quarter.
the trajectory the stage is read from · revenue stabilising
Revenue
336%206%77%−52%−181%%100%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
336%206%77%−52%−181%%100%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
ROE Annual readings — the quarterly balance-sheet pieces this curve needs are not held for this stock, so the returns read moves once a year and carries less weight in the call.
the return curve, annual readings
ROE
31%25%19%13%6.4%%8.1%FY22FY23FY25
31%25%19%13%6.4%%8.1%FY22FY23FY25
Revenue growth
Rolling over
latest +100.0% · span −145.5% to +300.0%
ROE
Falling
latest 8.1% · span 8.1%–29.7%

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

The latest quarter’s profit carries a one-off item larger than the operating base, so the profit curve is shown but does not vote in the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

Compound annual growth rate (%) Compound annual growth rate over each window, %. Revenue, profit and EPS from fiscal-year figures; stock price is the price CAGR over the same spans. A dash = that window is not held, or the base was a loss.
1yr3yr5yr10yr
Revenue+100.0%−18.9%
Stock price−5.9%
Revenue YoY (Mar 26)
+100.0%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Revenue 10y
−19.4%
long-run compound pace
04 · 4-Factor Sector Score

4-Factor Sector Score

42.0/100 — rank 14 of 17 in Insurance - Specialty · 49% evidence confidence · provisional, ranked below fully-evidenced peers

MBIA Inc. scores 42.0 out of 100 against the 17 companies it is compared with in Insurance - Specialty, ranking 14. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 23 + 6.2 + 9.8 + 3 = 42. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

05 · Revenue

Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fees from its businesses.

MBIA Inc. reported $0.0 B of income in the Mar 26 quarter, +100.0% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at −19.4% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $0.1 B. The last four reported quarters add to $0.1 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $0.1 B (+100.0% on the year), capping 4 years at −19.4% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $0.0 B, +100.0% year on year.

FY25 revenue $0.1 B (+100.0% YoY) Revenue bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 5-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
−19.4% a year over 4 years
RevenueYoY growth
0.21331%0.15217%0.10103%0.05−11%0.00−125%$ B%$0B100%FY21FY23FY25
0.21331%0.15217%0.10103%0.05−11%0.00−125%$ B%$0B100%FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: $0.0 B (+100.0% YoY) Quarterly revenue bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
Revenue (quarterly)YoY growth
0.05235%0.02109%0.00−17%−0.02−142%−0.05−268%$ B%$0B100%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
0.05235%0.02109%0.00−17%−0.02−142%−0.05−268%$ B%$0B100%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +2.8% growth against the decade's −19.4% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +100.0% over the last 4 quarters against +100.0%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising.

06 · Net margin

Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every $100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. With big fee businesses in the mix, it is the cleanest margin we can read for this bank.

MBIA Inc.'s net margin is −200.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +400.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the net margin has ranged −4,900.0% to −133.3%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's net margin is −200.0%, +400.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the net margin has ranged −4,900.0%–−133.3%.

Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

FY25: −225.0% Net margin by fiscal year, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). 5-year window.
within a −4,900.0–−133.3% band over 5 years
net marginYoY change (pp)
248%4,485%−1,134%2,001%−2,517%−483%−3,899%−2,968%−5,281%−5,452%%%−225%875%FY21FY23FY25
248%4,485%−1,134%2,001%−2,517%−483%−3,899%−2,968%−5,281%−5,452%%%−225%875%FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: −200.0% net margin (+400.0 pp YoY) Quarterly net margin, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). Last 12 quarters. Net profit as a share of total revenue, per quarter.
Net marginYoY change (pp)
854%2,012%115%1,002%−625%0.0%−1,365%−1,019%−2,104%−2,029%%%−200%400%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
854%2,012%115%1,002%−625%0.0%−1,365%−1,019%−2,104%−2,029%%%−200%400%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
07 · Net profit

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

MBIA Inc. posted a net loss of $0.04 B in the Mar 26 quarter. The full FY25 year was a loss of $0.2 B. That loss is 200.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost $0.1 B. 12 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Mar 26 profit was $−0.0 B, null year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $−0.2 B (null).

FY25 profit $−0.2 B (null YoY) Net profit bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 5-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
Net profit
0.0−0.1−0.2−0.4−0.5$ B$−0BFY21FY23FY25
0.0−0.1−0.2−0.4−0.5$ B$−0BFY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: $−0.0 B (null YoY) Quarterly net profit bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
Net profit (quarterly)
0.02−0.05−0.13−0.21−0.28$ B$0BJun 23Sep 24Mar 26
0.02−0.05−0.13−0.21−0.28$ B$0BJun 23Sep 24Mar 26
08 · Asset quality — the ladder

Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.

Loan-book quality history is not available for MBIA Inc., so this section names the gap rather than estimating a ratio. No gross or net non-performing-asset series is filed in a form this page can read, and none is inferred from the profit line. The income, margin and return sections above carry the evidence this business does report.

We do not hold quarterly loan-book quality numbers for this bank, so this section states that plainly rather than working around it.

Why: loan-book quality is the engine room of a bank, and its drivers — slippages, recoveries, provisioning — sit below what we hold for this name; the sections around it carry the reads we can stand behind.

09 · The loan book

The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book and the businesses grow, revenue grows with them. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.

MBIA Inc.'s revenue grew +100.0% in FY25 to $0.1 B, so the book is growing. The latest quarter ran +100.0% year on year. The net margin on that income is −200.0%, +400.0 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.

FY25 revenue was $0.1 B, +100.0% on the year, and the latest quarter ran +100.0% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is −200.0% this quarter (+400.0 pp YoY) — growth with a widening margin on it.

FY25: revenue $0.1 B (+100.0% YoY) with the net margin at −225.0% Revenue by fiscal year, $ B (bars, left); net margin, % (line, right). 5-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
RevenueNet margin
0.21248%0.15−1,134%0.10−2,517%0.05−3,899%0.00−5,281%$ B%$0B−225%FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25
0.21248%0.15−1,134%0.10−2,517%0.05−3,899%0.00−5,281%$ B%$0B−225%FY21FY23FY25

The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — with quarterly loan-quality numbers missing here, revenue growth and margin are the two we watch.

10 · Returns on equity and assets

Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.

MBIA Inc. earns a return on equity of 8% in FY25. Its trough over the ladder below was 8% in FY25. On the asset side every $100 of the balance sheet earned about $1.28, which is the return before leverage is applied.

FY25 ROE came in at 8%. On assets, the latest reading is about 1.28% — every $100 the bank deploys earns roughly $1.28 a year. That return is below the bar a bank must clear to compound book value quickly — which is also the honest reason the stock trades where it does.

FY25: ROE 8%, ROA 0.80% Return on equity by fiscal year, % (line, left); return on assets, % (line, right). 5-year window. A lender is judged on ROE and ROA — return on invested capital does not apply to a bank.
the full ladder
ROEROA
161%1.6%120%−1.4%79%−4.4%38%−7.5%−3.3%−11%%%8.1%0.8%FY21FY23FY25
161%1.6%120%−1.4%79%−4.4%38%−7.5%−3.3%−11%%%8.1%0.8%FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: ROE 7.6% (TTM), ROA 1.60% Trailing-twelve-month return on equity (left) and on assets (right), per quarter, %. Last 12 quarters, anchored to the annual figure.
ROE (TTM)ROA (TTM)
56%2.9%43%−1.9%30%−6.7%17%−11%4.0%−16%%%7.6%1.6%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
56%2.9%43%−1.9%30%−6.7%17%−11%4.0%−16%%%7.6%1.6%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

Why: the ROE ladder shows the move; the deposit-cost and provisioning drivers behind it sit below what we hold.

11 · Dividend

Dividend

MBIA Inc. pays no dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.

MBIA Inc. does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.

12 · Debt

Debt

For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.

A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.

13 · Ownership

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

5.9% of MBIA Inc.'s tradable float is currently sold short — some money is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 7.5 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

The latest reading: 5.9% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 7.5 days to buy those positions back. Some money is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.

Short interest
5.9%
of the tradable float
Days to cover
7.5
at typical volumes

Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.

14 · Safety line

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

MBIA Inc.: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.

15 · Related companies · Insurance - Specialty
CompanyScorePrice stageGrowth & earnings/35Capital efficiency/25Valuation/20Relative strength/20
1Investors Title CompanyITIC 58.9/100Mixed-positive evidence70% evidence BREAKING OUT 25.8/35 Income 7.3% · PAT 31% 71% evidence 14.4/25 ROA 1.7% · ROE 2.3% · GNPA — 68% evidence 3.8/20 P/BV 1.5× · P/BV÷ROE 0.65 70% evidence 14.9/20 RS sector 10.7% · RS bench 2.7% · 1Y 31%8 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 25.8 + 14.4 + 3.8 + 14.9 = 58.9 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
2First American Financial CorporationFAF 56.2/100Mixed-positive evidence60% evidence TURNING 20.4/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence 14.6/25 ROA 1.4% · ROE 4.1% · GNPA — 68% evidence 8.2/20 P/BV 1.24× · P/BV÷ROE 0.3 70% evidence 13.0/20 RS sector 11.8% · RS bench 3.9% · 1Y 21.3%4 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 20.4 + 14.6 + 8.2 + 13 = 56.2 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
3Employers Holdings, Inc.EIG 53.3/100Mixed-positive evidence60% evidence BREAKING OUT 18.3/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence 9.8/25 ROA 0.9% · ROE 3% · GNPA — 68% evidence 5.8/20 P/BV 1.06× · P/BV÷ROE 0.35 70% evidence 19.4/20 RS sector 13.3% · RS bench 5.4% · 1Y 23.1%9 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 18.3 + 9.8 + 5.8 + 19.4 = 53.3 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
4Enact Holdings, Inc.ACT 52.2/100Mixed-positive evidence76% evidence TURNING 14.9/35 Income 1.9% · PAT -2.6% 71% evidence 16.6/25 ROA 3% · ROE 3.2% · GNPA — 68% evidence 6.4/20 P/BV 1.07× · P/BV÷ROE 0.34 70% evidence 14.3/20 RS sector 13.2% · RS bench 5.5% · 1Y 29%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 14.9 + 16.6 + 6.4 + 14.3 = 52.2 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 5.5%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.
5AXIS Capital Holdings LimitedAXS 43.3/100Mixed-negative evidence60% evidence ASLEEP 15.0/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence 13.1/25 ROA 1.1% · ROE 6.2% · GNPA — 68% evidence 8.4/20 P/BV 1.21× · P/BV÷ROE 0.2 70% evidence 6.8/20 RS sector -1.2% · RS bench -8.2% · 1Y 7.5%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 15 + 13.1 + 8.4 + 6.8 = 43.3 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
6Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.RYAN 42.7/100Mixed-negative evidence60% evidence BREAKING OUT 14.7/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence 15.4/25 ROA 1.3% · ROE 9.9% · GNPA — 68% evidence 3.0/20 P/BV 9× · P/BV÷ROE 0.91 70% evidence 9.6/20 RS sector -4.4% · RS bench -12.5% · 1Y -23.7%7 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 14.7 + 15.4 + 3 + 9.6 = 42.7 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
7Essent Group Ltd.ESNT 41.5/100Mixed-negative evidence76% evidence TURNING 8.3/35 Income 1.3% · PAT -5.1% 71% evidence 15.7/25 ROA 2.4% · ROE 3% · GNPA — 68% evidence 7.9/20 P/BV 0.95× · P/BV÷ROE 0.32 70% evidence 9.6/20 RS sector 3.9% · RS bench -3.7% · 1Y 10.6%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 8.3 + 15.7 + 7.9 + 9.6 = 41.5 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
8Radian Group Inc.RDN 41.3/100Mixed-negative evidence62% evidence ASLEEP 12.4/35 Income 2.2% · PAT -8.2% 55% evidence 11.5/25 ROA — · ROE 2.8% · GNPA — 34% evidence 6.9/20 P/BV 0.93× · P/BV÷ROE 0.33 70% evidence 10.5/20 RS sector 8.7% · RS bench 1% · 1Y 16.6%3 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 12.4 + 11.5 + 6.9 + 10.5 = 41.3 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
9AMERISAFE, Inc.AMSF 41.2/100Thin evidence · provisional54% evidence BASING 18.6/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence 14.7/25 ROA 1.3% · ROE 5.7% · GNPA — 68% evidence 4.3/20 P/BV 2.51× · P/BV÷ROE 0.44 70% evidence 3.6/20 RS sector -21.4% · RS bench -27.7% · 1Y -33.5%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 18.6 + 14.7 + 4.3 + 3.6 = 41.2 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
10Fidelity National Financial, Inc.FNF 34.3/100Adverse evidence76% evidence BASING 17.4/35 Income 14% · PAT -23.9% 71% evidence 8.7/25 ROA 0.3% · ROE 3.9% · GNPA — 68% evidence 4.1/20 P/BV 1.72× · P/BV÷ROE 0.44 70% evidence 4.1/20 RS sector -6.4% · RS bench -13.6% · 1Y -11.6%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 17.4 + 8.7 + 4.1 + 4.1 = 34.3 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
11Assured Guaranty Ltd.AGO 34.2/100Adverse evidence76% evidence TURNING 12.4/35 Income 5.6% · PAT -4.5% 71% evidence 8.1/25 ROA 0.6% · ROE 1.5% · GNPA — 68% evidence 5.4/20 P/BV 0.66× · P/BV÷ROE 0.44 70% evidence 8.3/20 RS sector -3.8% · RS bench -10.9% · 1Y 1.2%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 12.4 + 8.1 + 5.4 + 8.3 = 34.2 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
12NMI Holdings, Inc.NMIH 55.4/100Thin evidence · provisional46% evidence TURNING 17.5/35 Income — · PAT — 10% evidence 13.3/25 ROA — · ROE 4.1% · GNPA — 34% evidence 8.6/20 P/BV 1.14× · P/BV÷ROE 0.28 70% evidence 16.0/20 RS sector 10.5% · RS bench 2.5% · 1Y 14.1%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 17.5 + 13.3 + 8.6 + 16 = 55.4 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
13MGIC Investment CorporationMTG 52.6/100Thin evidence · provisional46% evidence TURNING 17.7/35 Income — · PAT — 10% evidence 12.6/25 ROA — · ROE 3.6% · GNPA — 34% evidence 7.3/20 P/BV 1.16× · P/BV÷ROE 0.32 70% evidence 15.0/20 RS sector 8.7% · RS bench 0.7% · 1Y 13.9%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 17.7 + 12.6 + 7.3 + 15 = 52.6 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
14MBIA Inc.this pageMBI 42.0/100Thin evidence · provisional49% evidence ASLEEP 23.0/35 Income 100% · PAT — 45% evidence 6.2/25 ROA 0.3% · ROE 1.9% · GNPA — 68% evidence 9.8/20 P/BV -0.13× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 3.0/20 RS sector -22.7% · RS bench -28.7% · 1Y -9.6%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 23 + 6.2 + 9.8 + 3 = 42 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
15Octave Specialty Group, Inc.OSG 41.8/100Thin evidence · provisional49% evidence FADING 22.3/35 Income 17.7% · PAT — 45% evidence 5.0/25 ROA 0% · ROE -0.3% · GNPA — 68% evidence 9.8/20 P/BV 0.29× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 4.7/20 RS sector -18.6% · RS bench -25.6% · 1Y -18.9%7 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 22.3 + 5 + 9.8 + 4.7 = 41.8 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
16Tiptree Inc.TIPT 41.1/100Thin evidence · provisional33% evidence BASING 16.3/35 Income — · PAT — 7% evidence 9.1/25 ROA — · ROE -0.8% · GNPA — 34% evidence 9.8/20 P/BV 0.74× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 5.9/20 RS sector -5.5% · RS bench -12.8% · 1Y -17.7%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 16.3 + 9.1 + 9.8 + 5.9 = 41.1 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
17James River Group Holdings, Inc.JRVR 29.0/100Thin evidence · provisional49% evidence TURNING 10.8/35 Income -1.6% · PAT — 45% evidence 4.3/25 ROA -0.1% · ROE -1.4% · GNPA — 68% evidence 9.8/20 P/BV 0.56× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 4.1/20 RS sector -20.2% · RS bench -26.4% · 1Y -17.7%1 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 10.8 + 4.3 + 9.8 + 4.1 = 29 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

Missing observations are not scored as bad. Their missing weight lowers confidence and pulls the final score toward neutral. Financial companies use P/BV÷ROE and asset quality; PEG, industrial OPM and ROCE are excluded. Under relative strength, one mark per week shows the last 12 weeks: a mark is filled where the company led S&P 500 by 5% or more over the 13 weeks ending that week, which is the same test used everywhere on this site. Price stage places the company on the same six-step curve the sector itself is placed on — basing, turning, breaking out, leader, fading, asleep — read from how many weeks running it has led S&P 500 and whether that lead is widening or shrinking. It describes where the PRICE stands, not the earnings trajectory and not a recommendation, and it is left blank for a company whose weekly history is too short or too stale to read.

16 · Frequently asked questions

Frequently asked questions

What is MBIA Inc.'s stock price today?

MBIA Inc. trades at $5.3, −5.9% over the past year. The company is valued at $0.0 B. The stock sits at 5% of its 52-week range of $5–$8, −18.5% versus its 200-day average. Against the S&P 500 it has been behind on a trailing-13-week view for 3 weeks. — as of 5 August 2026.

What were MBIA Inc.'s latest quarterly results?

MBIA Inc. reported total income of $0.0 B and a net loss of $0.0 B for the Mar 26 quarter. Earnings per share were $−0.80. The net margin was −200.0%, 400.0 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 5 August 2026.

What is MBIA Inc.'s revenue?

MBIA Inc. reported revenue of $0.0 B in the Mar 26 quarter, +100.0% year on year. For the full FY25 fiscal year, revenue was $0.1 B (+100.0%). Over the last 4 years revenue compounded at −19.4% a year. — as of 5 August 2026.

What is MBIA Inc.'s profit?

MBIA Inc. earned $−0.0 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter. Full-year FY25 profit was $−0.2 B. The net margin ran −200.0% in the latest quarter. — as of 5 August 2026.

What is MBIA Inc.'s market cap?

MBIA Inc.'s market capitalisation is $0.0 B at a stock price of $5.3. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 5 August 2026.

Does MBIA Inc. pay a dividend?

No — MBIA Inc. has declared no dividend per share in any of its last 12 reported quarters, so there is no payout history and no yield to quote. That is a reading of the filed statements, not an estimate. — as of 5 August 2026.

How is MBIA Inc. performing?

MBIA Inc.'s latest readings are below. Against the S&P 500 it has been behind on a trailing-13-week view for 3 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 5 August 2026.

Is MBIA Inc. beating the market?

Not lately — on a trailing-13-week view MBIA Inc. is currently behind the S&P 500 (3 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-17), the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 1.1 years the stock moved +19% against the S&P 500's +24% — behind the index over the full window. — as of 5 August 2026.

Will MBIA Inc.'s stock price go up?

This page publishes no price forecast for MBIA Inc. What it measures instead: the stock price is $5.3. Direction is not something this site claims to know. — as of 5 August 2026.

Is the market betting against MBIA Inc.?

Somewhat — short interest is 5.9% of MBIA Inc.'s tradable float, about 7.5 days to cover at typical volumes. A moderate reading: some money is positioned against it. With no quarter-by-quarter holder register here, short interest is the cleanest crowd read we hold — as of 5 August 2026.

Is MBIA Inc.'s loan book healthy?

We do not hold quarterly loan-book quality numbers for MBIA Inc., so this page says that plainly. The cleanest available reads are revenue growth (+100.0% in FY25) and the net margin on it (−200.0%) — as of 5 August 2026.

Where is MBIA Inc. in its business cycle?

MBIA Inc.'s FY25 net margin was −225.0%, against a 5-year band of −4,900.0%–−133.3%: mid-band by its own history — neither the peak that precedes mean-reversion nor the trough that precedes recovery. The latest quarter ran −200.0%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 5 August 2026.

What could break the MBIA Inc. story?

Biggest watch item: the price is not yet in a confirmed uptrend — timing risk, not thesis risk. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 5 August 2026.

Is MBIA Inc. a stock worth studying right now?

This is not investment advice. The machine read: MBIA Inc.'s balance sheet is under water — net worth is negative, so it owes more than it owns. This is a distressed, high-risk situation — the equity can be wiped by dilution or restructuring before operations recover. Not a value setup. The sharpest open question: whether the business can earn its way back to positive equity before dilution or restructuring gets there first. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 5 August 2026.

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