InterContinental Hotels Group PLC
IHGInterContinental Hotels Group PLC's balance sheet is under water — net worth is negative, so it owes more than it owns. This is a distressed, high-risk situation — the equity can be wiped by dilution or restructuring before operations recover. Not a value setup.
Biggest watch item: the price is already 53 weeks into its uptrend — timing risk, not thesis risk.
The price is in a confirmed uptrend (53 weeks in). But the balance sheet is under water: net worth is negative, so shareholders sit behind everyone the company owes. What settles it: whether the business can earn its way back to positive equity before dilution or restructuring gets there first.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC trades at $157, in a confirmed uptrend and 53 weeks into that stage. That is +9.5% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 70% of a 52-week range of $120 to $173. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 11 straight weeks.
Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 53 of stage 2. At $157 it trades +9.5% versus its 200-day average and sits at 70% of its 52-week range ($120–$173).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +284% while the S&P 500 moved +263% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 11 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC trades at 30.6× P/E, against too little history to rank. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/E of 30.6× is against too little history to rank. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +26.3% against a +37.0% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.
The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +18.9%/yr price move, ~+67.4%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−48.5 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.
Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.
Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: revenue growth has eased from +68.6% at its peak to +36.3% but is still expanding. The read is built from 12 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.
Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.
The return-on-capital curve is not shown — net worth is negative, so a return on capital is not a meaningful number in any basis. This is a distressed balance sheet, and the stage is read from the growth curves alone.
A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +5.5% | +10.1% | — | — |
| Profit | +20.6% | +26.0% | — | — |
| EPS | +26.3% | +33.2% | — | — |
| Stock price | +37.0% | +29.6% | +18.9% | +13.0% |
4-Factor Sector Score
59.2/100 — rank 7 of 7 in Lodging · 38% evidence confidence · provisional, ranked below fully-evidenced peers
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC scores 59.2 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in Lodging, ranking 7. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 17.2 + 15.2 + 10.5 + 16.3 = 59.2. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC reported $2.7 B of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +2.7% year on year. That is the 8th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 15.6% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $5.2 B. The last four reported quarters add to $10.1 B.
FY25 revenue came in at $5.2 B (+5.5% on the year), capping 4 years at 15.6% compound. The latest quarter (Dec 25) printed $2.7 B, +2.7% year on year — the 8th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +5.9% growth against the decade's 15.6% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.
Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +36.3% over the last 4 quarters against +51.6%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +23.0% vs +1,079.0%/yr — rolling over.
Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's operating margin is 21.3% in the Dec 25 quarter, +1.3 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 16.2% to 23.2%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
The latest quarter's operating margin is 21.3%, +1.3 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 16.2%–23.2%.
Why the margin moved: operating margin went +1.3 pp year on year while gross margin went +1.1 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC earned $0.3 B of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +3.6% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.8 B. The 4-year compound rate is 29.5%. That is 10.9% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.3 B.
Dec 25 profit was $0.3 B, +3.6% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.8 B (+20.6%), and the 4-year compound rate is 29.5%.
Why profit moved: revenue contributed +2.7% and the margin +1.3 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.
Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +2.6% vs revenue +5.9%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.
Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.
Over the last 3 fiscal years 117% of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $0.9 B of operating cash against $0.8 B of profit. After $0.0 B of capital spending, $0.9 B was left as free cash.
FY25: operating cash of $0.9 B against reported profit of $0.8 B, leaving free cash of $0.9 B after $0.0 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 117% of profit.
Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.
Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.
Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.
Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $0.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 0.0% of FY25 revenue a year.
Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.
On the investment side: capital spending of $0.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.
The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.
Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC earns a ROE of −28% in FY25. That is up from a trough of −39% in FY23. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +17.6 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 14.6% net margin on 0.97× asset turns.
FY25 ROE is −28%, recovered from a FY23 trough of −39% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.
Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 14.6% net margin × 0.97× asset turns × −1.95× balance-sheet leverage ≈ −27.6% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.
The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 26.4% − 8.8% = a +17.6 pp spread. The 8.8% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every dollar reinvested creates more than a dollar of value — the engine compounds.
Dividend
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC pays no dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.
Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.
A borrowings history is not in our numbers for this stock.
A borrowings history is not in our numbers for this stock, so this section says that plainly rather than working around it.
Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.
No ownership or positioning reading is held for InterContinental Hotels Group PLC, so this section names the gap rather than filling it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 1.6 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.
We hold no ownership or positioning reading for this stock, so this section says that plainly.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC: the Z-score reads 3.01. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.
Why it matters: a Z-score of 3.01 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 3.01.
| Company | Score | Price stage | Growth & earnings/35 | Capital efficiency/25 | Valuation/20 | Relative strength/20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.HLT | 54.3/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | ASLEEP | 22.7/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 3.2 pp 45% evidence | 15.9/25 ROCE 7.4% · OPM 23.1% 76% evidence | 9.0/20 P/E 48.5× · PEG — 15% evidence | 6.7/20 RS sector 2.5% · RS bench -6.4% · 1Y 19%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 22.7 + 15.9 + 9 + 6.7 = 54.3 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 2Civeo CorporationCVEO | 51.5/100Thin evidence · provisional52% evidence | ASLEEP | 19.6/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 5.6 pp 45% evidence | 4.2/25 ROCE 1.2% · OPM 1.8% 76% evidence | 11.0/20 P/E 19.6× · PEG — 15% evidence | 16.7/20 RS sector 13% · RS bench 3.3% · 1Y 32.4%8 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 19.6 + 4.2 + 11 + 16.7 = 51.5 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 3Hyatt Hotels CorporationH | 44.7/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | FADING | 18.7/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 0.8 pp 45% evidence | 4.5/25 ROCE 1.1% · OPM 6.8% 76% evidence | 8.5/20 P/E 236.4× · PEG — 15% evidence | 13.0/20 RS sector 5.3% · RS bench -3.8% · 1Y 27.8%8 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 18.7 + 4.5 + 8.5 + 13 = 44.7 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 4Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.WH | 41.6/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | BASING | 16.6/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change -0.5 pp 45% evidence | 12.7/25 ROCE 4.5% · OPM 34.9% 76% evidence | 10.0/20 P/E 31× · PEG — 15% evidence | 2.3/20 RS sector -6.1% · RS bench -14.3% · 1Y -9.4%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 16.6 + 12.7 + 10 + 2.3 = 41.6 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 5Marriott International, Inc.MAR | 39.6/100Mixed-negative evidence81% evidence | ASLEEP | 13.9/35 Revenue 4.7% · PAT 4.4% · OPM change 0.9 pp 83% evidence | 13.3/25 ROCE 5.6% · OPM 16% 76% evidence | 4.5/20 P/E 34.3× · PEG 4.02 65% evidence | 7.9/20 RS sector 5.1% · RS bench -4% · 1Y 32.8%3 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 13.9 + 13.3 + 4.5 + 7.9 = 39.6 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 6Choice Hotels International, Inc.CHH | 39.6/100Mixed-negative evidence81% evidence | BASING | 5.2/35 Revenue 1.1% · PAT -30.3% · OPM change -6.4 pp 83% evidence | 10.3/25 ROCE 2.6% · OPM 17.6% 76% evidence | 14.7/20 P/E 13.9× · PEG 1.05 65% evidence | 9.4/20 RS sector 0.9% · RS bench -7.9% · 1Y -10.1%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 5.2 + 10.3 + 14.7 + 9.4 = 39.6 · Decision use: Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity. | ||||||
| 7InterContinental Hotels Group PLCthis pageIHG | 59.2/100Thin evidence · provisional38% evidence | FADING | 17.2/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change — 9% evidence | 15.2/25 ROCE 9.5% · OPM — 46% evidence | 10.5/20 P/E 28.9× · PEG — 15% evidence | 16.3/20 RS sector 10.3% · RS bench 0.9% · 1Y 31.6%7 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 17.2 + 15.2 + 10.5 + 16.3 = 59.2 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
Missing observations are not scored as bad. Their missing weight lowers confidence and pulls the final score toward neutral. PEG is not shown when the ratio cannot mean anything: the company must be making a profit, its price-to-earnings must be positive, and its three-year earnings growth must fall between 5% and 60%. Dividing a price multiple by a loss, or by growth measured off a tiny base, produces a number that looks precise and tells you nothing. Under relative strength, one mark per week shows the last 12 weeks: a mark is filled where the company led S&P 500 by 5% or more over the 13 weeks ending that week, which is the same test used everywhere on this site. Price stage places the company on the same six-step curve the sector itself is placed on — basing, turning, breaking out, leader, fading, asleep — read from how many weeks running it has led S&P 500 and whether that lead is widening or shrinking. It describes where the PRICE stands, not the earnings trajectory and not a recommendation, and it is left blank for a company whose weekly history is too short or too stale to read.
Frequently asked questions
What is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's stock price today?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC trades at $157, +37.0% over the past year. The company is valued at $23.0 B. The stock sits at 70% of its 52-week range of $120–$173, +9.5% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a confirmed uptrend, 53 weeks in. — as of 5 August 2026.
What were InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's latest quarterly results?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC reported revenue of $2.7 B and net profit of $0.3 B for the Dec 25 quarter. Revenue rose 2.7% and profit rose 3.6% year on year. Earnings per share were $1.89. The operating margin was 21.3%, 1.3 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's revenue?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC reported revenue of $2.7 B in the Dec 25 quarter, +2.7% year on year. For the full FY25 fiscal year, revenue was $5.2 B (+5.5%). Over the last 4 years revenue compounded at 15.6% a year. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's profit?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC earned $0.3 B of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +3.6% year on year — the 2nd straight quarter of growth. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.8 B. The operating margin ran 21.3% in the latest quarter. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's market cap?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's market capitalisation is $23.0 B at a stock price of $157. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 5 August 2026.
Does InterContinental Hotels Group PLC pay a dividend?
No — InterContinental Hotels Group PLC has declared no dividend per share in any of its last 12 reported quarters, so there is no payout history and no yield to quote. That is a reading of the filed statements, not an estimate. — as of 5 August 2026.
Is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC growing?
Yes — InterContinental Hotels Group PLC is growing: latest-quarter revenue +2.7% year on year, profit +3.6%, and the margin +1.3 pp at 21.3%. The 4-year compound rates are 15.6% (revenue) and 29.5% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 5 August 2026.
How is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC performing?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC is in a confirmed uptrend, 53 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 2.7% and profit rose 3.6% year on year. Against the S&P 500 it has been ahead on a trailing-13-week view for 11 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 5 August 2026.
What stage is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC in?
Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: revenue growth has eased from +68.6% at its peak to +36.3% but is still expanding. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +36.3% latest, profit growth +23.0% latest, eps growth +34.7% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 5 August 2026.
Is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC in an uptrend?
Yes — the price is in a confirmed uptrend (week 53 of stage 2), trading +9.5% versus its 200-day average and at 70% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 5 August 2026.
Is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC beating the market?
On recent form, yes — InterContinental Hotels Group PLC has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 11 straight weeks, the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +284% against the S&P 500's +263% — ahead of the index over the full window. — as of 5 August 2026.
Will InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's stock price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for InterContinental Hotels Group PLC. What it measures instead: the stock price is $157, the price is in a confirmed uptrend 53 weeks in. Direction is not something this site claims to know. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's capex?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC spent $0.0 B on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY25 alone that was $0.0 B. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's cash flow?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC generated $0.9 B of operating cash flow in FY25 and $0.9 B of free cash flow after $0.0 B of capital spending. Reported profit that year was $0.8 B, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. — as of 5 August 2026.
Is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's profit real cash?
Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 117% of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY25, operating cash was $0.9 B against reported profit of $0.8 B. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 5 August 2026.
How financially safe is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC?
On the balance sheet, the Z-score reads 3.01 — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the distress zone. That sits well clear of trouble. — as of 5 August 2026.
Where is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC in its business cycle?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's FY25 operating margin was 23.1%, against a 5-year band of 16.2%–23.2%: mid-band by its own history — neither the peak that precedes mean-reversion nor the trough that precedes recovery. The latest quarter ran 21.3%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 5 August 2026.
What could break the InterContinental Hotels Group PLC story?
Biggest watch item: the price is already 53 weeks into its uptrend — timing risk, not thesis risk. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 5 August 2026.
Is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's balance sheet is under water — net worth is negative, so it owes more than it owns. This is a distressed, high-risk situation — the equity can be wiped by dilution or restructuring before operations recover. Not a value setup. The sharpest open question: whether the business can earn its way back to positive equity before dilution or restructuring gets there first. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 5 August 2026.