Wheels India Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Wheels India Ltd trades at ₹2,296, in a confirmed uptrend and 69 weeks into that stage. That is +68.4% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 100% of a 52-week range of ₹732 to ₹2,296. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 4 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 69 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹2,296 it trades +68.4% versus its 200-day average and sits at 100% of its 52-week range (₹732–₹2,296).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.6 years the stock moved +476% while the NIFTY 500 moved +268% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 4 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Wheels India Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 27 June 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: Not stated in the research file. Still open: A failure to pass on raw material inflation leading to OPM compressing below 6%, or further delays in the aluminum wheel capacity expansion beyond FY27.

Our read, 27 June 2026. Cyclical peak momentum driven by export scale and subsidiary turnarounds, but constrained by cost inflation and capacity delays.

From the numbers. PE trades at 23.9x (43rd percentile), signaling full momentum but carrying cyclical peak risks as earnings accelerate against near-term macro headwinds.

From the price. Price stage 2, week 69 — above its 200-day line, relative strength rising.

From the research. Cyclical peak momentum driven by export scale and subsidiary turnarounds, but constrained by cost inflation and capacity delays.

🚨 Where they disagree. PE trades at 23.9x (43rd percentile), signaling full momentum but carrying cyclical peak risks as earnings accelerate against near-term macro headwinds.

What is proven. Cyclical peak momentum driven by export scale and subsidiary turnarounds, but constrained by cost inflation and capacity delays.

What is not proven yet. A failure to pass on raw material inflation leading to OPM compressing below 6%, or further delays in the aluminum wheel capacity expansion beyond FY27.

🚨 What would change our mind. A failure to pass on raw material inflation leading to OPM compressing below 6%, or further delays in the aluminum wheel capacity expansion beyond FY27.

Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — KEEP. Profit is up 26% on real operations, not paper — and the share is cheaper than its own average while earning more. Wheels India earned Rs 112 crore from operations this June quarter against Rs 94 crore a year earlier, on 17.8% more sales, and I checked that almost none of it came from outside the business: other income was Rs 4 crore against Rs 55 crore of pre-tax profit, exactly as it was last year. Its operating margin has held at 7-8% for eight straight quarters after years at 3.7-5%, so the improvement has stuck. Meanwhile the share trades at 22.6 times earnings, below its own ten-year average of 24.1 and 46.6% below its peak multiple — you are paying less per rupee of earnings than history while the earnings grow. Two cautions: management promised 60,000 aluminium wheels a month by March 2026 and…

What would change Layer 1’s mind. Sharpening the Timeline own line (which says a failure to pass on raw-material inflation taking the margin below 6%, or further capacity delay): the specific flip here is the September 2026 operating margin dropping below 7% — because 7-8% has now held for eight consecutive quarters and is the entire basis for the earnings-driven-compression score, so breaking it would say the export mix shift is reversing rather than compounding. The second flip is a promoter sale: domestic institutions have…

Layer 2 read, 22 August 2026 — ADVANCE. The recovery still has outside support, but the missed capacity promise blocks an add. Wheels printed an 8% Q4 operating margin as subsidiaries turned profitable, while a reliability-1 auto source remains positive on auto ancillaries. Stream F shows neutral supply investment rather than a glut, but management's 60,000-unit promise was still only 42,000 and input costs were rising.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. A reliable external demand check showing export weakness severe enough to delay the 60,000-unit aluminium line beyond FY27 would flip ADVANCE to DROP.

Layer 3 read, 22 August 2026 — BENCH. Capacity delivery is late, and input and freight costs keep this P2 name on the bench. The sole direct guidance test is still a miss: management said 60,000 aluminium wheels a month would happen in Q4 FY26, but the later update still said current capacity was 42,000. Timeline R1 aligns with fresh commodity and freight evidence, while the fresh governance sweep found an internal promoter transfer without a change in overall control.

What would change Layer 3’s mind. A reported operating margin below 6% with management identifying unpassed aluminium, steel or freight costs as the cause would escalate R1 to HIGH and move BENCH toward DROP.

CIO read, 22 August 2026 — RETAIN. HELD (defended slot) · forward-asymmetry 54/100 · CONTESTED. Core profit is operating-backed, with revenue up 17.8% and operating profit up to Rs 112 crore, but the promised 60,000-unit monthly aluminium capacity remains at 42,000. The judged 18% EPS path clears the model's 13.3% hurdle, yet the capacity miss and management WATCHLIST keep it contested.

The test written in advance. A failure to pass on raw material inflation leading to OPM compressing below 6%, or further delays in the aluminum wheel capacity expansion beyond FY27. — the thesis as written as stated by the next result.

The test written in advance. Cost Inflation Pass-Through Lag — Cost Inflation Pass-Through Lag OPM drops below 7% in Q1 FY27. by the next result.

What the company does. Wheels India crossed the 5,000 Cr revenue mark fueled by construction exports and industrial components profitability. Margins improved to 8% but remain short of the double-digit target due to rising commodity and freight costs. The 43rd percentile PE suggests fair valuation, balancing the cyclical peak risk against the upcoming capacity additions in aluminum wheels and wind machinery.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: Margin is expanding The research reads it further: Subsidiary turnaround drove the operating leverage, offsetting early cost inflation

Sources: our stock research file (27 June 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Wheels India Ltd reported ₹1,491 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +17.8% year on year. That is the 6th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 10.6% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹5,465 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹5,690 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹5,465 Cr (+15.2% on the year), capping 10 years at 10.6% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹1,491 Cr, +17.8% year on year — the 6th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +17.4% growth against the decade's 10.6% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +17.5% over the last 4 quarters against +7.4%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +40.3% vs +50.2%/yr — rolling over.

FY26-Q3. Revenue sequentially improved to 1371 Cr while margins remained stable at 7%. The quarter saw the introduction of a conservative inventory provisioning policy that impacted reported numbers, reflecting a focus on balance sheet discipline over short-term earnings maximization.

Why-sources: our stock research file (27 June 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Wheels India Ltd's operating margin is 8.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 11 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.8% to 9.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 8.0%, +1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 11 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.8%–9.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.1 pp year on year while gross margin went +1.7 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

FY26-Q3. Revenue sequentially improved to 1371 Cr while margins remained stable at 7%. The quarter saw the introduction of a conservative inventory provisioning policy that impacted reported numbers, reflecting a focus on balance sheet discipline over short-term earnings maximization.

Why-sources: our stock research file (27 June 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Wheels India Ltd earned ₹39.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +25.8% year on year. It is the 10th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹158 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 14.4%. That is 2.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹31.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹39.0 Cr, +25.8% year on year — the 10th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹158 Cr (+41.1%), and the 10-year compound rate is 14.4%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +17.8% and the margin +1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +39.6% vs revenue +17.4%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

FY26-Q3. Revenue sequentially improved to 1371 Cr while margins remained stable at 7%. The quarter saw the introduction of a conservative inventory provisioning policy that impacted reported numbers, reflecting a focus on balance sheet discipline over short-term earnings maximization.

Why-sources: our stock research file (27 June 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 367% of Wheels India Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹477 Cr of operating cash against ₹158 Cr of profit. After ₹345 Cr of capital spending, ₹132 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹477 Cr against reported profit of ₹158 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹132 Cr after ₹345 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 367% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 367%: the cash cycle tightened 39 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 2.4× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Wheels India Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs −3 days in FY26, down from 36 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹694 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹5,465 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹15.0 Cr, so roughly ₹−45.0 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

Why this happened. The 90 Cr investment made in FY26 for large casting machining has a 12-15 month lead time and will begin contributing materially to FY27 revenues.

FY26: debtors at 55 days, inventory at 73 days — roughly 2.4 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of −3 days, tighter than FY21's 36.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 73 days to sell; customers pay about 55 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 131 days — netting out to the −3-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹5,465 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹15.0 Cr — so the −3-day loop keeps roughly ₹−45.0 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹694 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹293 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹69.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Wheels India Ltd earns a ROCE of 19% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 4% in FY21. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 2.9% net margin on 1.56× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 19%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 4% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 2.9% net margin × 1.56× asset turns × 3.38× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 15.3% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 28% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Wheels India Ltd carries ₹768 Cr of borrowings against ₹1,041 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.74. Operating profit covers the interest bill 3×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹698 Cr to ₹768 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹694 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹768 Cr against equity of ₹1,041 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.74. Operating profit covers the interest bill 3×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹698 Cr to ₹768 Cr while capital spending ran ₹694 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 28% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions cut 3.1 points of Wheels India Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 8.9% of the company. Foreign institutions moved +2.0 points over the same window, to 2.5%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: −3.1 points over 8 quarters to 8.9%; Foreign institutions: +2.0 points over 8 quarters to 2.5%; Promoters: −1.5 points over 8 quarters to 56.9%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions +2.0 points against domestic institutions −3.1 points over 8 quarters, with promoters −1.5 points — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Wheels India Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Wheels India Ltd trades at 35.9× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (80th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 25.6×, measured across 10.2 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 35.9× is at the pricey end of its own range (80th percentile), against a long-run median of 25.6× measured over 10.2 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +39.8% against a +165.9% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +24.1%/yr price move, ~+23.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+0.2 pp from the multiple (roughly flat); over 10y, of the +13.4%/yr price move, ~+14.7%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−1.3 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 28% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 27 August 2026 price, Wheels India Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 13.3% a year. Profit itself has compounded 14.4% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 35.9× P/E, the 80th percentile of its own 10-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is close to what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 27 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 28 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Wheels India Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 19.0% and holding. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

70.4/100 — rank 1 of 2 in Auto Wheels · 79% evidence confidence

Wheels India Ltd scores 70.4 out of 100 against the 2 companies it is compared with in Auto Wheels, ranking 1. Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 29.4 + 16.4 + 10.6 + 14 = 70.4. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Wheels India Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

🚨 Aluminum Wheel Capacity Ramp - Committed Milestone Missed · 15 May 2026. In the Oct 2025 call, management stated that aluminum wheel capacity would increase from 40,000 to 60,000 units per month in Q4 FY26 (by March 2026). In the May 2026 call, capacity is still only 42,000 units per month, with the 60,000 milestone deferred to 'a few months' away - a delay of at least 4 to 5 months with no explanation provided. This is material because management had explicitly linked crossing 60,000 units per month to achieving double-digit EBITDA margins in the aluminum business.

Axles India Stake Increase - Undisclosed Capital Deployment · 15 May 2026. In the Oct 2025 call, management explicitly stated there was 'no real concerted plan' to raise Axles India ownership beyond the then-current 12.5%. The May 2026 call confirms a stake increase did occur in the intervening period, with management now describing a stated decision to raise ownership to 15% to 25% and suggesting potential deeper integration. This undisclosed capital allocation directly contradicts the explicit denial of any acquisition plan made only seven months earlier.

SHPAC Partnership Revenue Target - Absent from Latest Call · 15 May 2026. In the Oct 2025 call, management proactively announced a strategic alliance with SHPAC for joint hydraulic cylinder business development and disclosed a revenue target of approximately $15 million within 24 months. In the May 2026 call - now 7 months into that 24-month window - the same partnership is characterized only as a technical design reference with no progress update or reiteration of the prior revenue target. This unexplained shift in framing, from a strategic initiative with a specific near-term revenue commitment to an ancillary design resource, raises material questions about the hydraulic cylinder export growth outlook.

Cast Aluminum Wheel Capacity Stagnation · 31 October 2025. In the October 2024 call, management stated the cast aluminum wheel capacity was 40,000 wheels/month and would be increased by 10,000/month by the end of that fiscal year (FY25). However, in the October 2025 call, a full year later, management stated the capacity is still at the same 40,000 wheels/month level, indicating the guided expansion did not materialize. Earlier call (Oct 2024): “40,000, which is let”. Later call (Oct 2025): “currently our capacity is about 40,000 wheels a month, and we are increasing it first to 60,000, which should happen in Q4 of this year...”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions