Waaree Energies Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Waaree Energies Ltd trades at ₹2,682, in a downtrend and 5 weeks into that stage. That is −9.3% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 14% of a 52-week range of ₹2,545 to ₹3,535. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (15 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 5 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹2,682 it trades −9.3% versus its 200-day average and sits at 14% of its 52-week range (₹2,545–₹3,535).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.8 years the stock moved −7% while the NIFTY 500 moved +2% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (15 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-05) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Waaree Energies Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 17 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: EARNINGS_LED_DERATING.

Our read, 17 May 2026. India's largest solar module manufacturer mid-capex-cycle at PE trough — vertical integration into cell/wafer/glass will structurally lift margins, but execution slippage and binary US duty risk keep it on watch.

From the numbers. PE at 0th percentile of 10Y range (25.4x vs 40.3x median) classified as MEAN_REVERT_OPPORTUNITY with EARNINGS_DRIVEN decomposition. EPS has exploded from Rs 65 (FY25) to Rs 129 (FY26) — a 98% jump — while price has…

From the price. Price stage 4, week 5 — below its 200-day line, relative strength falling.

From the research. India's largest solar module manufacturer mid-capex-cycle at PE trough — vertical integration into cell/wafer/glass will structurally lift margins, but execution slippage and binary US duty risk keep it on watch.

🚨 Where they disagree. PE at 0th percentile of 10Y range (25.4x vs 40.3x median) classified as MEAN_REVERT_OPPORTUNITY with EARNINGS_DRIVEN decomposition. EPS has exploded from Rs 65 (FY25) to Rs 129 (FY26) — a 98% jump — while price has compressed vs the earnings curve. FIIs accumulated from 1.4% (Dec 2024) to 7.06% (Mar 2026) — a 504% increase in FII ownership. Classic smart-money accumulation pattern at earnings trough valuation.

What is proven. India's largest solar module manufacturer mid-capex-cycle at PE trough — vertical integration into cell/wafer/glass will structurally lift margins, but execution slippage and binary US duty risk keep it on watch.

What is not proven yet. Preliminary 123.04% duty on India-origin modules covers ~30-35% of FY26 revenue base; final ruling July 13 — adverse outcome forces revenue mix restructuring and could push FY27 EBITDA below Rs 7,000 Cr floor.

The test written in advance. US Anti-Dumping Final Ruling — July 13, 2026 Binary Event — US Anti-Dumping Final Ruling — July 13, 2026 Binary Event July 13, 2026 US DoC ruling + Q1 FY27 export mix (should recover from 21% to 30%+) by the next result.

The test written in advance. Management Execution Slippage — 3 Timeline Misses in 2 Calls — Management Execution Slippage — 3 Timeline Misses in 2 Calls Q1/Q2 FY27 concall — ingot-wafer construction milestone update; 10 GW cell capacity commissioning H2 FY27 by the next result.

The test written in advance. Q4 FY26 Margin Compression — Structural or Transitional? — Q4 FY26 Margin Compression — Structural or Transitional? Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin (must recover above 20% to confirm transitional, above 22% to validate base case) by the next result.

Lever 6 · Order-book wins — BUILDING. Rs 53,000 Cr order book (up from Rs 47,000 Cr YoY) with 100+ GW pipeline — 2-3 years of revenue visibility at current run-rate. What proves it keeps working: Order Book / Revenue Visibility. It stops working if July 13, 2026 US DoC ruling + Q1 FY27 export mix (should recover from 21% to 30%+).

Lever 3 · Management change — BUILDING. ALMM 2 mandates local cell content from June 1, 2026 — DCR pricing Rs 21-22/watt vs non-DCR Rs 14-16/watt creates structural ~35-40% realization premium for integrated players. What proves it keeps working: ALMM 2 Domestic Cell Pricing Power. It stops working if July 13, 2026 US DoC ruling + Q1 FY27 export mix (should recover from 21% to 30%+).

Lever 4 · Paying down debt — BUILDING. Eliminating third-party cell procurement via 10 GW ingot-wafer facility (H2 FY27 startup) adds 180-200 bps margin; glass backward integration adds FEOC compliance and another 50-80 bps. What proves it keeps working: Vertical Integration Margin Uplift (Ingot/Wafer + Glass). It stops working if July 13, 2026 US DoC ruling + Q1 FY27 export mix (should recover from 21% to 30%+).

Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. 4.2 GW US capacity by H1 FY27 generates IRA credits at 7 cents/watt (Rs 80 Cr in Q3 alone); locally manufactured modules are fully insulated from 123% anti-dumping duties. What proves it keeps working: US IRA Manufacturing Credits + Local Capacity Tariff Shield. It stops working if July 13, 2026 US DoC ruling + Q1 FY27 export mix (should recover from 21% to 30%+).

Sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Waaree Energies Ltd reported ₹7,932 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +79.2% year on year. That is the 9th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 6 years it has compounded at 53.9% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹26,537 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹30,043 Cr.

Why this happened. Order book grew from Rs 47,000 Cr to Rs 53,000 Cr through FY26 despite record revenue delivery of Rs 26,537 Cr — meaning order intake exceeded execution. The 100+ GW pipeline dwarfs the current ~24-25 GW annual capacity, providing pricing power and volume predictability. Q3 FY26 alone saw order inflow of Rs 20,500 Cr. Revenue visibility is the strongest quantitative pillar of the thesis.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹26,537 Cr (+83.7% on the year), capping 6 years at 53.9% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹7,932 Cr, +79.2% year on year — the 9th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +94.9% growth against the decade's 53.9% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +94.3% over the last 4 quarters against +61.8%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +74.0% vs +73.0%/yr — stabilising.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Waaree Energies Ltd's operating margin is 18.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, −5.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 3.7% to 22.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 18.0%, −5.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 3.7%–22.0%, and FY26's 22.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −4.4 pp year on year while gross margin went −6.4 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Waaree Energies Ltd earned ₹892 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +15.4% year on year. It is the 9th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹3,884 Cr. The 6-year compound rate is 115.3%. That is 11.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹773 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹892 Cr, +15.4% year on year — the 9th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹3,884 Cr (+101.5%), and the 6-year compound rate is 115.3%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +79.2% and the margin −5.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +85.5% vs revenue +94.9%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 100% of Waaree Energies Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹1,627 Cr of operating cash against ₹3,884 Cr of profit. After ₹5,860 Cr of capital spending, ₹−4,233 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹1,627 Cr against reported profit of ₹3,884 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−4,233 Cr after ₹5,860 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 100% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 100%: the cash cycle stretched 84 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 6.5× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Waaree Energies Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 90 days in FY26, up from 6 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹10,832 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹26,537 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹72.7 Cr, so roughly ₹6,543 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 34 days, inventory at 118 days — roughly 3.9 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 90 days, looser than FY21's 6.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 118 days to sell; customers pay about 34 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 63 days — netting out to the 90-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹26,537 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹72.7 Cr — so the 90-day loop keeps roughly ₹6,543 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹10,832 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹1,669 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹3,476 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Waaree Energies Ltd earns a ROCE of 39% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 16% in FY21. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 14.6% net margin on 0.88× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 39%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 16% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 14.6% net margin × 0.88× asset turns × 2.09× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 26.9% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 11% on reported income across 12 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Waaree Energies Ltd carries ₹3,213 Cr of borrowings against ₹14,438 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.22. Operating profit covers the interest bill 21×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹340 Cr to ₹3,213 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹10,832 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

Why this happened. Management explicitly disclosed the third-party cell procurement margin leakage as 180-200 bps dilution in Q4 FY26. The 10 GW Nagpur ingot-wafer facility (Rs 6,200 Cr capex, H2 FY27) targeting 80-85% utilization, combined with the 5.4 GW existing cell capacity, creates a 15.4 GW self-sufficient cell stack by FY28. This eliminates the single biggest variable cost leak. The glass facility (2,500 TPD, Rs 3,900 Cr) also addresses US FEOC compliance mandated April 2026, locking in structural supply chain advantage.

FY26: borrowings of ₹3,213 Cr against equity of ₹14,438 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.22. Operating profit covers the interest bill 21×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹340 Cr to ₹3,213 Cr while capital spending ran ₹10,832 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 11% on reported income across 12 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions added 7.2 points of Waaree Energies Ltd over 6 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 8.6% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +1.4 points over the same window, to 4.1%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

Why this happened. Waaree's 5.4 GW cell capacity (India's largest) directly benefits from ALMM 2 which mandates domestic cell requirement for government tenders from June 2026. The pricing differential between DCR (Rs 21-22/watt) and non-DCR (Rs 14-16/watt) is structural, not cyclical. Management plans to commit 95-98% of the new 15.4 GW cell output to DCR domestic market. This is the single biggest margin-accretive lever in the next 24 months.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: +7.2 points over 6 quarters to 8.6%; Domestic institutions: +1.4 points over 6 quarters to 4.1%; Promoters: −0.2 points over 6 quarters to 64.1%.

Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (+7.2 points), alongside domestic institutions (+1.4 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Waaree Energies Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Waaree Energies Ltd trades at 19.2× P/E, about the cheapest it has ever traded. Its long-run median P/E is 36.6×, measured across 1.8 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Why this happened. Mandatory 2-hour storage on government PV tenders is a structural demand driver. BESS phase 1 (3.5 GWh) targeted FY27, phase 2 (16.5 GWh) FY28 with Rs 10,000 Cr total capex. The 18-20% EBITDA target at 20-25% ROCE is consistent with historical project approvals. However, the BESS capacity target has already been revised 5.7x upward (3.5 to 20 GWh) without detailed justification — which raises execution credibility risk. Currently deferred from base case pending FY27 phase 1 operational data.

Today's P/E of 19.2× is about the cheapest it has ever traded, against a long-run median of 36.6× measured over 1.8 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

One caveat before moving on: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. If profitability mean-reverts, today's multiple is higher than it looks.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +98.5% against a −7.0% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

The PEG ratio and its quarterly curve, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 11% on reported income across 12 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Waaree Energies Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE holding at 39.0% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 9 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

69.1/100 — rank 1 of 7 in Capital Goods - Solar · 75% evidence confidence

Waaree Energies Ltd scores 69.1 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in Capital Goods - Solar, ranking 1. Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 27.4 + 17.9 + 9.1 + 14.7 = 69.1. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Waaree Energies Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Ingot and Wafer Commissioning Timeline and Capex Revision · 30 April 2026. In the Jan 2026 call, management explicitly committed to operationalizing the ingot and wafer plant by FY27, alongside modules and cells. The Apr 2026 call reveals the timeline has shifted by 12 months to FY28, with capex revised upward from approximately 5,100 crores to 6,200 crores (stated by the UBS analyst in the Apr 2026 Q&A and uncontested by management). Management attributes the change to a capacity scale-up from 6 GW to 10 GW and a location shift from Odisha to Gujarat and Nagpur, but this pushes full vertical integration - and the associated improvement in DCR margin contribution - a full year further out than was committed to investors.

🚨 US Manufacturing Capacity Launch Timeline Slippage · 30 April 2026. In the Feb 2026 call, Abhishek Pareek stated in the Q&A that the remaining 2.6 GW of US capacity - the 1.6 GW under construction in Texas and the 1 GW acquired Arizona facility - would come online by mid of the current calendar year, implying a June-July 2026 target. The Apr 2026 call states this same 2.6 GW will go live over the next 6 months from April, implying an October 2026 target - a delay of roughly 3-4 months with no explanation offered. Given IRA credits of approximately 7 cents per watt peak accrue only on US-manufactured volume, each quarter of delay on 2.6 GW of US capacity carries a material impact on IRA benefit realization.

🚨 Missed Cell Utilization Guidance · 22 January 2026. In the October 2025 call, management confidently guided that cell capacity utilization would reach 80-85% 'pretty quick' within Q3. However, in the January 2026 call, they revealed the actual Q3 average was only 56%, admitting the ramp-up was 'technically involved' and that they are only touching the 80% level now. Earlier call (Oct 2025): “Yes, within this quarter, we will see that it kind of gets to 80%, 85% utilization pretty quick.” Later call (Jan 2026): “It is a phased ramp-up. So if you look at the entire quarter, you might see 56%... Ramping up a cell facility is technically involved.”

Contradictory US Cell Facility Status · 22 January 2026. In October 2025, management explicitly clarified that their US acquisition (Meyer Burger) included inventory but 'not the cell line.' In January 2026, management contradicted this by stating they are 'expanding our cells facility in Texas,' implying an active manufacturing capability they previously denied acquiring. Earlier call (Oct 2025): “The number that you see largely is for the inventories of cell, not the cell line.” Later call (Jan 2026): “We are expanding our cells facility in Texas. We will continue looking at the market and, at the right time, we will actively consider doing cell manufacturing in the US as well.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions