Timex Group India Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Timex Group India Ltd trades at ₹632, in a confirmed uptrend and 18 weeks into that stage. That is +43.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 91% of a 52-week range of ₹258 to ₹670. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 27 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 18 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹632 it trades +43.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 91% of its 52-week range (₹258–₹670).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +2,048% while the NIFTY 500 moved +267% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 27 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Timex Group India Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 31 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: EARLY_EXPANSION. Still open: Two OFS in 6 months (Jun + Dec 2025) cut promoter stake from 74.93% to 59.93%; global parent Timex Group Luxury Watches BV is monetizing steadily.

Our read, 31 May 2026. Zero-capex plant + first formal concall transparency upgrades conviction; PE at 57x on Rs 7.47 FY26 EPS still prices in 35-40% CAGR with no margin of safety.

From the numbers. PE at 53rd percentile of 10Y range — AT_MEDIAN, not a compressed-entry signal. PE current 57.9 vs median 57.2. YoY trend CONTRACTING (smoothed -13.2%): EPS growing faster than price — the EARNINGS_DRIVEN decomposition…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 18 — above its 200-day line, relative strength rising.

From the research. Zero-capex plant + first formal concall transparency upgrades conviction; PE at 57x on Rs 7.47 FY26 EPS still prices in 35-40% CAGR with no margin of safety.

🚨 Where they disagree. PE at 53rd percentile of 10Y range — AT_MEDIAN, not a compressed-entry signal. PE current 57.9 vs median 57.2. YoY trend CONTRACTING (smoothed -13.2%): EPS growing faster than price — the EARNINGS_DRIVEN decomposition means price is rising but earnings are rising faster, compressing the ratio. FY26 EPS Rs 7.47 vs FY25 EPS Rs 3.11 — a 140% EPS surge in one year. If EPS sustains at Rs 10-12 in FY27, the trailing PE would compress to 37-45x — still above median but moving toward it. FII_BUYING signal present despite OFS dilution events.

What is proven. Zero-capex plant + first formal concall transparency upgrades conviction; PE at 57x on Rs 7.47 FY26 EPS still prices in 35-40% CAGR with no margin of safety.

What is not proven yet. Two OFS in 6 months (Jun + Dec 2025) cut promoter stake from 74.93% to 59.93%; global parent Timex Group Luxury Watches BV is monetizing steadily.

The test written in advance. Promoter OFS Overhang — Serial Stake Reduction — Promoter OFS Overhang — Serial Stake Reduction by the next result.

The test written in advance. Valuation Stretch — 57x PE on High Base — Valuation Stretch — 57x PE on High Base Q1 FY27 revenue print vs Rs 169 crore base; Q2 FY27 OPM vs 17.46% festive-peak base by the next result.

The test written in advance. OEM Strategic Incoherence — Intra-Call Contradiction — OEM Strategic Incoherence — Intra-Call Contradiction OEM revenue breakout or clarification in future concalls; whether management repeats the contradiction or resolves it by the next result.

What the company does. FY26 full-year revenue Rs 799 crore (+48% YoY) and PAT Rs 75 crore (+139% YoY) confirm the operating leverage thesis — EBITDA at 14% annual margin vs 9% in FY25. Q1 FY27 concall is TIMEX's first formal transcript, upgrading evidence quality from Bronze-web-fallback to Bronze-concall; management targets Rs 400-500 crore absolute EBITDA and 200-300 store expansion in 2-3 years. An intra-call OEM contradiction (pillar vs non-pillar in the same call) and two OFS events reducing promoter from 74.93% to 59.93% keep the management score capped at 5/10.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. FY26 PAT grew 2.4x while revenue grew 1.48x — the plant's fixed-cost absorption is now confirmed across 4 full quarters, not just festive peaks. What proves it keeps working: Operating Leverage from Fully Depreciated Baddi Plant. It stops working if Promoter shareholding in quarterly filings (Sept 2025 not yet in data); any SEBI Reg 29 disclosures of further stake sale.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. Annual OPM expanded from 9% (FY25) to 14% (FY26) — balanced 24% ASP and 24% volume growth in Timex brand confirmed in Q1 FY27 concall. What proves it keeps working: Premiumisation + ASP Uplift. It stops working if Promoter shareholding in quarterly filings (Sept 2025 not yet in data); any SEBI Reg 29 disclosures of further stake sale.

Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. E-commerce 90% YoY to 40% of FY24 business; Q1 FY27 concall confirmed 1P/3P/own-website split and quick commerce at 5% of e-commerce across 5 platforms. What proves it keeps working: E-Commerce + Quick Commerce Compounding. It stops working if Promoter shareholding in quarterly filings (Sept 2025 not yet in data); any SEBI Reg 29 disclosures of further stake sale.

Lever 14 · A bigger market to sell into — BUILDING. Analog watch industry growth re-accelerating to 13-13.5% (from 8-9% historical); Timex market share vs Titan now 27.5% in core duopoly segments. What proves it keeps working: India Premium Watch TAM Expansion + Market Share Gain vs Titan. It stops working if Promoter shareholding in quarterly filings (Sept 2025 not yet in data); any SEBI Reg 29 disclosures of further stake sale.

Sources: our stock research file (31 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Timex Group India Ltd reported ₹219 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +29.6% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 16.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹799 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹849 Cr.

Why this happened. The Q1 FY27 concall gave the first formal breakdown: e-commerce is 40% of revenue, with 1P at 65%, 3P at 25%, own websites 3%. Quick commerce launched across Flipkart Minutes, Myntra Now, Swiggy Instamart, Zepto, Blinkit — now 5% of e-commerce. Management targets quick commerce to double within one year. The channel mix shift continues to improve working capital quality (partner-held inventory for 1P/3P) and reduces receivables risk.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹799 Cr (+48.5% on the year), capping 10 years at 16.5% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹219 Cr, +29.6% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +42.4% growth against the decade's 16.5% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +42.0% over the last 4 quarters against +42.0%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +93.2% vs +111.5%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Timex Group India Ltd's operating margin is 16.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +3.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −24.0% to 14.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

Why this happened. The Baddi plant is fully depreciated. FY26 annual OPM reached 14% vs 9% in FY25 — a 500 bps structural improvement driven by fixed-cost leverage as revenue scaled from Rs 538 crore to Rs 799 crore. Q4 FY26 (Mar 2026) specifically shows revenue Rs 235 crore at 17% OPM — leverage is now appearing in both the festive quarter (Q2 Sep) and the year-end quarter (Q4 Mar), not just Q2. Management guided from the Q1 FY27 concall that capacity is being prepared to target 15 million units eventually. Every incremental unit at the Baddi plant carries near-100% gross margin contribution above variable costs.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 16.0%, +3.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −24.0%–14.0%, and FY26's 14.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +3.3 pp year on year while gross margin went +1.4 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Timex Group India Ltd earned ₹25.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +66.7% year on year. It is the 6th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹75.0 Cr. That is 11.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹15.0 Cr. 1 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Jun 26 profit was ₹25.0 Cr, +66.7% year on year — the 6th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹75.0 Cr (+141.9%).

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +29.6% and the margin +3.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +95.8% vs revenue +42.4%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 94% of Timex Group India Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹91.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹75.0 Cr of profit. After ₹2.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹89.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹91.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹75.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹89.0 Cr after ₹2.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 94% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 94%: the cash cycle stretched 103 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Timex Group India Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 88 days in FY26, up from −15 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹4.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹799 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹2.2 Cr, so roughly ₹193 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 27 days, inventory at 158 days — roughly 5.2 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 88 days, looser than FY21's −15.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 158 days to sell; customers pay about 27 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 97 days — netting out to the 88-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹799 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹2.2 Cr — so the 88-day loop keeps roughly ₹193 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹4.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹10.0 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Timex Group India Ltd earns a ROCE of 83% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −115% in FY14. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +68.2 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 9.4% net margin on 2.36× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 83%, recovered from a FY14 trough of −115% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 9.4% net margin × 2.36× asset turns × 4.51× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 100.0% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 80.2% − 12.0% = a +68.2 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every rupee reinvested creates more than a rupee of value — the engine compounds.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Timex Group India Ltd carries total debt of ₹36.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹111 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.32. On the annual view that ratio went from 2.19 in FY22 to 0.32 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹36.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹111 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.32. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 2.19 (FY22) to 0.32 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 23.9 points of Timex Group India Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 51.0% of the company. Foreign institutions moved +2.0 points over the same window, to 2.5%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −23.9 points over 8 quarters to 51.0%; Foreign institutions: +2.0 points over 8 quarters to 2.5%; Domestic institutions: +1.2 points over 8 quarters to 1.4%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−23.9 points), absorbed on the other side by foreign institutions (+2.0 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Timex Group India Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Timex Group India Ltd trades at 71.5× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (67th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 59.3×, measured across 8.9 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 71.5× is mid-range by its own standards (67th percentile), against a long-run median of 59.3× measured over 8.9 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +140.2% against a +97.0% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +65.4%/yr price move, ~+44.7%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+20.7 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 13 June 2026 price, Timex Group India Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 29.5% a year. Today the market pays 71.5× P/E, the 67th percentile of its own 9-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is the whole of what a buyer is backing.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 13 June 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Timex Group India Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: profit growth has eased from +115.4% at its peak to +93.2% but is still expanding, ROCE lifting at 72.1%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

4-Factor Sector Score

79.5/100 — rank 1 of 4 in Watches · 97% evidence confidence

Timex Group India Ltd scores 79.5 out of 100 against the 4 companies it is compared with in Watches, ranking 1. Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 33.8 + 18.3 + 10.6 + 16.8 = 79.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Timex Group India Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Marketing Spend Assumption Not Reconciled · 3 August 2026. Earlier in the Aug 2026 call, management said marketing was 8.5% of revenue and that its longstanding framework was 7-8%, describing the quarter as within guidance. Later, it said AMP would remain at approximately 9% going forward; management did not reconcile whether this represented a change in the ongoing spend assumption or a different denominator, which matters for margin modeling. Earlier in Call (Aug 2026): I have always said that we invest 7-8% in marketing, and this is 8.5%. Later in Call (Aug 2026): However, it will remain in a similar range because we will continue to spend approximately 9% going forward on AMP.

Current EBITDA Margin Exceeds Stated Target · 3 August 2026. Earlier in the Aug 2026 call, management reported a quarterly EBITDA margin of 16.3%. Later, when asked whether margins of 16-17% were sustainable, management said it did not want margins to exceed 15-16%; the call did not clarify whether the 16.3% result was a one-time outcome or why current performance was above the stated ceiling, creating uncertainty for margin forecasts. Earlier in Call (Aug 2026): EBITDA margin expanded to 16.3% from approximately 13% last year. Later in Call (Aug 2026): No. As I mentioned, we do not want EBITDA margins to go beyond 15-16%.

Guess Manufacturing Timeline Shifted Without a Concrete Explanation · 3 August 2026. Earlier in the Aug 2026 call, management presented January as the planned start for manufacturing Guess products. Later, it acknowledged that the initial target had been August and that the launch was postponed to January, attributing the delay only to how things were unfolding and providing no specific operational reason for the five-month shift. Earlier in Call (Aug 2026): No. We plan to start from January. Later in Call (Aug 2026): Initially, we were targeting August onwards, but based on how things are unfolding, it has been postponed to next year, probably from January onwards.

OEM Strategic Focus · 1 June 2026. Early in the call, management explicitly identified the OEM business as a core pillar of the company alongside its key brands. However, later in the same call (Jun 2026), management directly contradicted this position by stating OEM is not a strategic pillar and is explicitly excluded from their core long-term planning.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions