Rajratan Global Wire Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Rajratan Global Wire Ltd trades at ₹498, in a confirmed uptrend and 13 weeks into that stage. That is +9.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 85% of a 52-week range of ₹349 to ₹525. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 11 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 13 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹498 it trades +9.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 85% of its 52-week range (₹349–₹525).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +2,991% while the NIFTY 500 moved +267% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 11 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Rajratan Global Wire Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 19 July 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: TROUGH_WITH_EARLY_RECOVERY_TEST. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 22 August 2026.

What is proven. See the research file

What is not proven yet. The thesis fails if the completed price pass-through does not restore margins while export and Chennai volumes grow, because then the current margin trough would be a structural loss of pricing rather than a temporary raw-material lag.

🚨 What would change our mind. The thesis fails if the completed price pass-through does not restore margins while export and Chennai volumes grow, because then the current margin trough would be a structural loss of pricing rather than a temporary raw-material lag.

Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — KEEP. The margin collapse was a cost lag, not lost pricing — and the June quarter proves the price increases stuck. Rajratan makes tyre bead wire, and its March quarter looked awful because steel wire-rod prices jumped Rs 10,000 a tonne before it could raise its own prices, crushing the operating margin to 9%. Management said in April that the full price increase had gone through to customers across all its geographies, and the June quarter now confirms it in reported numbers: margin back to 13%, operating profit Rs 42 crore against Rs 31 crore a year earlier, sales up 28.7%, and almost no one-off income in the result. That matters because everything cheap-looking about this stock is really the same fact — profit more than halved from Rs 124 crore to Rs 57 crore before recovering to Rs 80 crore, so the…

What would change Layer 1’s mind. One observation flips this to DROP: the Sep-2026 quarter printing operating margin back BELOW 13% while revenue still grows — that would mean the June recovery was a one-quarter inventory-cost effect rather than a durable price reset, and the frozen thesis own falsification ("the current margin trough would be a structural loss of pricing rather than a temporary raw-material lag") would have tripped. A second, softer trigger for a downgrade to P2: steel-cord trials slipping past Q2 FY27 for a…

Layer 2 read, 22 August 2026 — ADVANCE. The recovery survives, but new industry capacity makes the next margin print important. L1 recorded that the next reported quarter restored margin after the cost lag, matching management's full pass-through statement. External evidence is mixed: the fallback sector quarter weakened and Stream F shows CAPACITY_RISK[sector_capital_flows: Tyres & Tubes]. The EXTREME MoS flag remains a ⚠ model warning, so ADVANCE means deeper testing, not a buy.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. DROP if a reported quarter shows operating margin falling again after the completed pass-through while export or Chennai volume is still growing, because that would confirm structural pricing loss rather than a temporary cost lag.

Layer 3 read, 22 August 2026 — DEPLOY. Price increases restored margin, so buy small while steel-cord delivery remains unproven. The June operating margin recovered to 13% from the March 9% trough after management said full customer price increases had landed, mitigating Timeline risk R1. The model's -57.6% MoS warning is judged context, not a fact, because it used trough earnings; normalized valuation remains only fair, and steel-cord timing still weakens management credibility.

What would change Layer 3’s mind. A September 2026 quarter with operating margin below 13% despite continued revenue growth would show that the June recovery was temporary and flip DEPLOY to DROP.

CIO read, 22 August 2026 — BENCH. NOT ADMITTED (incoming, benched) · forward-asymmetry 34/100 · CLEAR_NO_CONTEST. NO CONTEST — I judge deliverable EPS growth at 14%, leaving a negative 6.2-point gap against the model's 20.2% requirement. The margin recovered to 13%, but the rating is already full at the 70th percentile and the sector faces new-capacity risk.

The test written in advance. The thesis fails if the completed price pass-through does not restore margins while export and Chennai volumes grow, because then the current margin trough would be a structural loss of pricing rather than a temporary raw-material lag. — the thesis as written as stated by the next result.

The test written in advance. Pass-through does not restore margin — Pass-through does not restore margin Next-quarter operating margin versus the stated normalization range by the next result.

The test written in advance. Steel-cord execution and capital-allocation slippage — Steel-cord execution and capital-allocation slippage Steel-cord trial completion, customer approvals, actual project spend, and commercial revenue by the next result.

What the company does. FY26 revenue and profit rose while the March quarter absorbed a raw-material shock that cut operating margin; management says the price reset is complete and expects margin recovery. C001, C002, C003, C006, C018. Trailing valuation looks richer than the normalized read because current margins are close to their own trough; the normalized read remains only fairly priced, not a deep-value setup. C015. The Chennai expansion and steel-cord project create additional volume options, but the latter has had capex and timing revisions across calls. C007, C008, C009, C011, C012, C013, C014.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: The latest quarter shows a sharp margin decline. The research reads it further: The supplied call attributes the decline to wire-rod and energy costs moving before price pass-through, not to a reported volume contraction.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: A trailing PE near the upper end of the available history looks expensive. The research reads it further: Current operating margin is close to its own trough, so normalizing earnings reduces the PE read; however, the normalized percentile remains above the middle of the available range.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. The price reset is the near-term earnings test after the March-quarter wire-rod shock. What proves it keeps working: Raw-material pass-through and margin recovery. It stops working if Operating margin does not recover in the next reported quarter despite the stated full price pass-through.

Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. Management is targeting another year of volume growth through exports, North America, Europe, and Thailand. What proves it keeps working: Export-led volume growth. It stops working if Export volume grows but receivables and funding costs rise faster than the contribution margin.

Lever 6 · Order-book wins — BUILDING. Chennai capacity is being doubled and is intended to serve South India while freeing other capacity for exports. What proves it keeps working: Chennai capacity ramp. It stops working if Capacity is completed but customer approvals or utilization do not follow.

Lever 12 · New product launch — BUILDING. Steel cord could add a higher-margin product line, but it remains an option until trials, approvals, and utilization are evidenced. What proves it keeps working: Steel-cord option value. It stops working if Trials or customer approvals slip again, or actual project spend exceeds the revised plan.

Sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Rajratan Global Wire Ltd reported ₹318 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +28.7% year on year. That is the 6th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 15.1% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,156 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,228 Cr.

Why this happened. The latest call gives a consolidated volume-growth target and regional export ambitions. Longer shipping and collection cycles mean volume delivery must be assessed together with receivables and short-term borrowing rather than as a standalone positive.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,156 Cr (+23.6% on the year), capping 10 years at 15.1% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹318 Cr, +28.7% year on year — the 6th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +28.1% growth against the decade's 15.1% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +27.8% over the last 4 quarters against +16.4%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +40.4% vs +4.0%/yr — accelerating.

FY26-Q3. Revenue and profit remained above the year-earlier base, while operating margin was below the September quarter. There is no supplied Tijori call tied to this reporting quarter, so the timeline does not infer a management explanation beyond the available financial data.

Why-sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Rajratan Global Wire Ltd's operating margin is 13.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 8.0% to 20.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. The March quarter compressed margins as wire-rod prices moved before customer prices reset. Management says the pass-through was implemented across geographies and expects normalization in the current quarter. This is a real driver only if the next result confirms it in reported margin, not merely in management commentary.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 13.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 8.0%–20.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.5 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.0 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

FY26-Q3. Revenue and profit remained above the year-earlier base, while operating margin was below the September quarter. There is no supplied Tijori call tied to this reporting quarter, so the timeline does not infer a management explanation beyond the available financial data.

Why-sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Rajratan Global Wire Ltd earned ₹23.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +64.3% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹70.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 15.9%. That is 7.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹14.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹23.0 Cr, +64.3% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹70.0 Cr (+18.6%), and the 10-year compound rate is 15.9%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +28.7% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +52.0% vs revenue +28.1%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

FY26-Q3. Revenue and profit remained above the year-earlier base, while operating margin was below the September quarter. There is no supplied Tijori call tied to this reporting quarter, so the timeline does not infer a management explanation beyond the available financial data.

Why-sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 119% of Rajratan Global Wire Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹75.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹70.0 Cr of profit. After ₹131 Cr of capital spending, ₹−56.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹75.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹70.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−56.0 Cr after ₹131 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 119% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 119%: the cash cycle tightened 18 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 4.5× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Rajratan Global Wire Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 62 days in FY26, down from 80 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹311 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹1,156 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹3.2 Cr, so roughly ₹196 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 81 days, inventory at 54 days — roughly 1.8 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 62 days, tighter than FY21's 80.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 54 days to sell; customers pay about 81 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 72 days — netting out to the 62-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹1,156 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹3.2 Cr — so the 62-day loop keeps roughly ₹196 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹311 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹69.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹88.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Rajratan Global Wire Ltd earns a ROCE of 13% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 10% in FY14. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −1.9 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 6.1% net margin on 1.00× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 13%, recovered from a FY14 trough of 10% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 6.1% net margin × 1.00× asset turns × 1.78× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 10.9% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 10.1% − 12.0% = a −1.9 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Rajratan Global Wire Ltd carries total debt of ₹324 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹650 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.50. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.40 in FY22 to 0.50 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹324 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹650 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.50. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.40 (FY22) to 0.50 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Rajratan Global Wire Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Domestic institutions moved +0.2 points over the same window, to 8.3%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: +0.5 points over 8 quarters to 0.8%; Domestic institutions: +0.2 points over 8 quarters to 8.3%; Promoters: +0.1 points over 8 quarters to 65.2%.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Rajratan Global Wire Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Rajratan Global Wire Ltd trades at 31.8× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (66th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 23.0×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 31.8× is mid-range by its own standards (66th percentile), against a long-run median of 23.0× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +19.3% against a +44.7% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +4.2%/yr price move, ~+1.6%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+2.6 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +28.8%/yr price move, ~+14.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+14.6 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 27 August 2026 price, Rajratan Global Wire Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 20.2% a year. Profit itself has compounded 15.9% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 31.8× P/E, the 66th percentile of its own 11-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is close to what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 27 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Rajratan Global Wire Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE holding at 15.8% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

4-Factor Sector Score

55.3/100 — rank 4 of 8 in Tyres & Tubes · 100% evidence confidence

Rajratan Global Wire Ltd scores 55.3 out of 100 against the 8 companies it is compared with in Tyres & Tubes, ranking 4. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 21.9 + 10 + 8 + 15.4 = 55.3. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Rajratan Global Wire Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

FY27 Capex Budget Nearly Doubled vs Prior Guidance · 22 April 2026. In the Oct 2025 call, management explicitly capped FY27 capital expenditure at 'not more than Rs.20-25 crores max,' characterising it as maintenance-level spend covering balancing equipment at Chennai and Indore and Thailand de-bottlenecking. The Apr 2026 call reveals FY27 capex of approximately Rs.50 crores — Rs.25 crores to complete the steel cord project plus Rs.25 crores for Chennai's capacity expansion — nearly double the prior ceiling, with no explicit acknowledgment of or explanation for the escalation. Earlier call (Oct 2025): “FY27, we do not see much happening except Rs.15-20 crores which will be balancing equipment in Chennai and maybe some balancing equipment for wire rope business in Indore location and some de-bottlenecking in Thailand. So, you can call it maintenance CAPEX which will happen. But not more than Rs.20-25 crores max.” Later call (Apr 2026): “In steel cord, we have already invested around 45 to 50 crores, and we will require another 25 crores to complete that Capex. In Chennai, it will be close to 25 crores this year to complete the capacity expansion to 60,000 tons.”

Steel Cord Project Total Capex 40% Above Original Budget · 22 April 2026. The Apr 2025 call guided total investment for the 10,000-ton Pithampur steel cord/wire rope facility at INR50 crores. The Apr 2026 call confirms total project cost at approximately INR70-75 crores — a 40%+ overrun. This is made more concerning because when challenged on the discrepancy in Oct 2025, management denied ever stating the INR50 crore figure, asserting 'I think we have been saying that only' about the INR70 crore number, directly contradicting the Apr 2025 record. Earlier call (Apr 2025): “The total investment we plan will be around INR50 crores to create a capacity of 10,000 tons of wire rope, which will generate a revenue of INR100 crores.” Later call (Apr 2026): “What is the Capex amount for steel cord? — It is close to 70 crores.”

🚨 Steel Cord Production Start Repeatedly Delayed Across All Calls · 22 April 2026. The Pithampur steel cord/wire rope production start has slipped with each earnings call. The Apr 2025 call guided production would begin 'in about 1 year' (i.e., by approximately Apr 2026); the Oct 2025 call revised this to Q1 FY27 (Apr-Jun 2026); and the Apr 2026 call now states only production 'trials' will begin 'in the second quarter' (Q2 FY27, Jul-Sep 2026) — a cumulative 6+ month delay from the original timeline, with management providing only a partial explanation referencing shed reconstruction without addressing the repeated pattern of slippage. Earlier call (Apr 2025): “it will take about 1 year to start production of wire ropes, okay?” Earlier call (Oct 2025): “Machines are already at site, stored in a godown, but we had to make a new building for accommodating all that layout and machines and we will start production in the first quarter of next financial year.” Later call (Apr 2026): “That project got slightly delayed because of the reconstruction of the shed. We broke the old shed, which was made in 1989, and built a new, large shed. Now that work is over, the machines are being installed, and we will be able to start trials for that product in the second quarter.”

Steel Cord Revenue Potential Revised Up 50% Without Explanation · 22 April 2026. The Apr 2025 call projected that the 10,000-ton wire rope/steel cord facility would generate INR100 crores in revenue, implying roughly Rs.100 per kg in realization. The Apr 2026 call states the top-line potential is 'around 150 crores' for the identical 10,000-ton capacity, explicitly confirming 'on average, it is 150 rupees per kg' — a 50% per-kg revenue revision with no rationale offered. This materially alters the financial model underpinning the original project justification and, combined with the concurrent 40% capex overrun, represents a substantially changed investment case from what was originally presented. Earlier call (Apr 2025): “The total investment we plan will be around INR50 crores to create a capacity of 10,000 tons of wire rope, which will generate a revenue of INR100 crores.” Later call (Apr 2026): “The total capacity is 10,000 tons a year. At current levels of pricing, the top-line potential from this investment is around 150 crores. There are different sizes and prices, but on average, it is 150 rupees per kg.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions