Lokesh Machines Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Lokesh Machines Ltd trades at ₹338, in a confirmed uptrend and 16 weeks into that stage. That is +38.1% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 99% of a 52-week range of ₹149 to ₹339. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 8 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 16 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹338 it trades +38.1% versus its 200-day average and sits at 99% of its 52-week range (₹149–₹339).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.3 years the stock moved +335% while the NIFTY 500 moved +251% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 8 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Lokesh Machines Ltd trades at 191.0× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (97th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 31.3×, measured across 10.2 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 191.0× is at the pricey end of its own range (97th percentile), against a long-run median of 31.3× measured over 10.2 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +589.3% against a +73.3% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +51.0%/yr price move, ~−10.5%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+61.5 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +14.9%/yr price move, ~−1.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+16.1 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources do not share enough overlapping reported history to be compared. A figure nobody could check is not used to price growth — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Lokesh Machines Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −97.2% at the trough to +1553.8%, a 3-quarter improving streak (single-quarter readings), ROCE holding at 6.0%. The read is built from 10 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

55.3/100 — rank 1 of 3 in CNC - Machines · 77% evidence confidence

Lokesh Machines Ltd scores 55.3 out of 100 against the 3 companies it is compared with in CNC - Machines, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 18.9 + 7.1 + 10 + 19.3 = 55.3. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Lokesh Machines Ltd reported ₹59.4 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +53.4% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 5.6% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹209 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹209 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹209 Cr (−8.3% on the year), capping 10 years at 5.6% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹59.4 Cr, +53.4% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −1.2% growth against the decade's 5.6% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −8.7% over the last 4 quarters against −15.7%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +658.8% vs −47.1%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Lokesh Machines Ltd's operating margin is 17.7% in the Mar 26 quarter, −1.2 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 10.0% to 24.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 17.7%, −1.2 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 10.0%–24.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −1.2 pp year on year while gross margin went +5.6 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Lokesh Machines Ltd earned ₹2.1 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +1,553.8% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹4.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 7.2%. That is 3.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹0.1 Cr. 1 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Mar 26 profit was ₹2.1 Cr, +1,553.8% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹4.0 Cr (+300.0%), and the 10-year compound rate is 7.2%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +53.4% and the margin −1.2 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +472.3% vs revenue −1.2%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 132% of Lokesh Machines Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹−13.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹4.0 Cr of profit. After ₹19.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹−32.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹−13.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹4.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−32.0 Cr after ₹19.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 132% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 132%: the cash cycle stretched 122 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 2.9× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Lokesh Machines Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 584 days in FY26, up from 462 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹116 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹209 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹0.6 Cr, so roughly ₹334 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 121 days, inventory at 680 days — roughly 22.4 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 584 days, looser than FY21's 462.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 680 days to sell; customers pay about 121 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 217 days — netting out to the 584-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹209 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹0.6 Cr — so the 584-day loop keeps roughly ₹334 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹116 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹40.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹9.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.⚠ unverified

Lokesh Machines Ltd earns a ROCE of 6% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 2% in FY20. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −7.7 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 1.9% net margin on 0.42× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 6%, recovered from a FY20 trough of 2% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 1.9% net margin × 0.42× asset turns × 2.18× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 1.7% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 4.3% − 12.0% = a −7.7 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.⚠ unverified

Lokesh Machines Ltd carries total debt of ₹169 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹228 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.74. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.58 in FY22 to 0.74 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹169 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹228 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.74. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.58 (FY22) to 0.74 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 2.6 points of Lokesh Machines Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 49.2% of the company. Foreign institutions moved +0.0 points over the same window, to 0.0%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −2.6 points over 8 quarters to 49.2%; Foreign institutions: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 0.0%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−2.6 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Lokesh Machines Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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