JSW Infrastructure Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

JSW Infrastructure Ltd trades at ₹343, in a confirmed uptrend and 12 weeks into that stage. That is +13.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 100% of a 52-week range of ₹241 to ₹343. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 28 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 12 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹343 it trades +13.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 100% of its 52-week range (₹241–₹343).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 2.9 years the stock moved +100% while the NIFTY 500 moved +31% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 28 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

JSW Infrastructure Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 27 June 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: MID_EXPANSION_CAPEX_BUILD. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 27 June 2026.

Our read, 27 June 2026. India's fastest-growing port platform: two mega-capacity assets commissioning March 2027 that will nearly double EBITDA — priced today on pre-ramp trailing earnings that don't show the punchline yet.

From the numbers. PE compressed 34 percent from its September 2024 peak of 65.7 times to 43.6 times today, while EPS grew from approximately Rs.5.50 (FY24) to Rs.7.25 (FY26). This is earnings-driven multiple compression, not price…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 12 — above its 200-day line, relative strength rising.

From the research. India's fastest-growing port platform: two mega-capacity assets commissioning March 2027 that will nearly double EBITDA — priced today on pre-ramp trailing earnings that don't show the punchline yet.

🚨 Where they disagree. PE compressed 34 percent from its September 2024 peak of 65.7 times to 43.6 times today, while EPS grew from approximately Rs.5.50 (FY24) to Rs.7.25 (FY26). This is earnings-driven multiple compression, not price destruction. FIIs have been net buyers, rising from 2.34 percent in March 2024 to 4.75 percent by March 2025. The normalized PE at the 33rd percentile (after adjusting for near-midcycle margins) versus the 52nd percentile trailing PE confirms this is a FAIRLY_PRICED situation, not a cheap trough buy. The depressed-versus-own-history framing is moderate — PE is in the bottom third historically, but the stock isn't at a distressed cyclical trough; it's in the middle of a capex cycle…

What is proven. India's fastest-growing port platform: two mega-capacity assets commissioning March 2027 that will nearly double EBITDA — priced today on pre-ramp trailing earnings that don't show the punchline yet.

What is not proven yet. If FY27 EBITDA comes in below Rs.2,700 crore — a third successive significant guidance miss — or if both the Jatadhar port and the iron ore slurry pipeline slip beyond September 2027, the capacity-ramp thesis collapses to a maintenance story still priced at 40-plus times trailing earnings. Separately, if net debt exceeds 2.5 times EBITDA at any point during the FY27-28 capex phase, the balance-sheet buffer that supports the investment case is gone.

🚨 What would change our mind. If FY27 EBITDA comes in below Rs.2,700 crore — a third successive significant guidance miss — or if both the Jatadhar port and the iron ore slurry pipeline slip beyond September 2027, the capacity-ramp thesis collapses to a maintenance story still priced at 40-plus times trailing earnings. Separately, if net debt exceeds 2.5 times EBITDA at any point during the FY27-28 capex phase, the balance-sheet buffer that supports the investment case is gone.

Layer 1 read, 27 June 2026 — KEEP. Great ports, sound balance sheet, but earnings are flat until the March-2027 mega-assets switch on. JSW Infra's trailing earnings are stuck — FY26 PAT rose just 1.7% as capex interest ate a 20% revenue gain — which is why the multiple looks cheap and the DCF looks expensive at the same time. The real value is the March-2027 Jatadhar port plus iron-ore slurry pipeline that nearly double FY28 EBITDA; with a clean 1.2x net-debt balance sheet the thesis is intact, but the payoff is a forward bet against a management that has missed four guidance items.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. If FY27 EBITDA comes in below Rs 2,700 Cr (a third successive guidance miss) OR Jatadhar/the slurry pipeline slip past September 2027, the capacity-ramp thesis collapses to a maintenance story still priced at 40x+ trailing — that would flip it to DROP. Conversely, a clean Q1 FY27 EBITDA sustaining Rs 769 Cr+ with both assets on schedule would re-rate it toward P1.

Layer 2 read, 27 June 2026 — BENCH. Quality port doubler, but a Hormuz volume hit + capacity-flood land it in the pre-ramp lull - watch, don't buy yet.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. If the Hormuz throughput hit reverses (monthly cargo growth re-accelerates above mid-single-digits) AND FY27 EBITDA tracks toward the >Rs 2,700 Cr guide with the Jatadhar/slurry-pipeline commissioning confirmed on schedule, the near-term headwinds clear and this flips BENCH->ADVANCE. Conversely a third successive significant guidance miss confirms DROP.

The test written in advance. Management guidance credibility gap — fourth generation miss possible — Management guidance credibility gap — fourth generation miss possible Q1 FY27 (August 2026) EBITDA print and whether Navkar tracks toward the Rs.400 crore FY27 guidance by the next result.

The test written in advance. Fujairah geopolitical disruption — recovery timeline uncertain — Fujairah geopolitical disruption — recovery timeline uncertain by the next result.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: PE at 36th percentile suggests the stock is modestly cheap on a historical basis The research reads it further: JSWINFRA only listed in December 2023, so the ten-year history is actually less than three years. The percentile is computed on a short window where the stock debuted at high post-IPO PE and compressed as earnings grew. The 36th percentile reflects a declining multiple on rising EPS — which is an earnings-driven compression, not a de-rating. The normalized PE at the 33rd percentile (from cycle_normalized.pe.normalized_PE_percentile) after adjusting for near-midcycle margins confirms this is a FAIRLY_PRICED situation.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: CWIP surge signals major active construction The research reads it further: The Rs.3,015 crore increase in CWIP between March 2024 and March 2026 is the in-process value of the Jatadhar port and iron ore slurry pipeline, plus brownfield works at Jaigarh and Dharmtar. When these assets capitalize (March 2027), depreciation will increase but EBITDA contribution will dwarf the depreciation. The capex is confirmed as productive rather than idle by management's concall construction milestones.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. Two assets commissioning simultaneously in March 2027 that management attributes Rs.800 crore and Rs.300-400 crore of incremental annual EBITDA respectively — nearly equivalent to the entire FY22 EBITDA base in one stroke. What proves it keeps working: Jatadhar Port + Iron Ore Slurry Pipeline (March 2027 dual commissioning). It stops working if Both commissioning dates slip past September 2027, or the Vijayanagar steel expansion is deferred, removing the captive volume anchor that de-risks the Jatadhar investment case.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. Navkar went from Rs.8 crore to Rs.118 crore EBITDA in one year and is now scaling with 25 newly commissioned GPWIS rakes generating Rs.25 crore of EBITDA in their first two operating months — the fleet is targeting 250 rakes over three years. What proves it keeps working: Navkar Logistics Platform Scale-up. It stops working if Navkar ICD utilization falls back below 55 percent, or the 40-rake delivery (August-September 2026) is deferred, killing the Rs.150 crore FY27 rake-contribution estimate.

Lever 3 · Management change — BUILDING. Jaigarh and Dharmtar adding 26-27 million tonnes of combined capacity at brownfield IRRs of 20-21 percent — better returns than greenfield at lower capex intensity. What proves it keeps working: Brownfield Port De-bottlenecking (Jaigarh, Dharmtar, Ennore). It stops working if Dolvi steel expansion is deferred, removing the 10-15 million tonne captive throughput that anchors the Dharmtar berth business case.

Sources: our stock research file (27 June 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

JSW Infrastructure Ltd reported ₹1,445 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +18.1% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 9 years it has compounded at 22.1% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹5,361 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹5,583 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹5,361 Cr (+19.8% on the year), capping 9 years at 22.1% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹1,445 Cr, +18.1% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +19.4% growth against the decade's 22.1% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +19.0% over the last 4 quarters against +19.7%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit −6.2% vs +15.5%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

JSW Infrastructure Ltd's operating margin is 47.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 10 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 49.0% to 59.0%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

Why this happened. The 302-km iron ore slurry pipeline (82 percent complete as of May 2026, with 247 km welded and 235 km lowered) operates on a take-or-pay contract with Vijayanagar steelmakers, providing revenue certainty with margins described as two-thirds of revenue. Jatadhar port's pile foundation is 80 percent complete with 7 million cubic meters of dredging done. The primary Jatadhar anchor is the JSW Steel Vijayanagar expansion from 18 to 25 million tonnes, pulling coal, flux, iron ore, and pellets through the new berth. Both assets are captive-anchored, limiting volume execution risk. The key watch item is whether both commissioning targets hold through the monsoon construction window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 47.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 10 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 49.0%–59.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −0.9 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.0 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

JSW Infrastructure Ltd earned ₹358 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −8.2% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹1,547 Cr. The 9-year compound rate is 19.6%. That is 24.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹390 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹358 Cr, −8.2% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹1,547 Cr (+1.7%), and the 9-year compound rate is 19.6%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +18.1% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −4.7% vs revenue +19.4%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 140% of JSW Infrastructure Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹2,022 Cr of operating cash against ₹1,547 Cr of profit. After ₹2,786 Cr of capital spending, ₹−764 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹2,022 Cr against reported profit of ₹1,547 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−764 Cr after ₹2,786 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 140% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 140%: the cash cycle tightened 22 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 5.8× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

JSW Infrastructure Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 72 days in FY26, down from 94 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹9,291 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹5,361 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹14.7 Cr, so roughly ₹1,058 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 72 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 72 days, tighter than FY21's 94.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹5,361 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹14.7 Cr — so the 72-day loop keeps roughly ₹1,058 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹9,291 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹1,597 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹3,188 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

JSW Infrastructure Ltd earns a ROCE of 14% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 9% in FY19. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −1.7 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 28.9% net margin on 0.27× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 14%, recovered from a FY19 trough of 9% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 28.9% net margin × 0.27× asset turns × 1.86× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 14.5% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 10.3% − 12.0% = a −1.7 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

JSW Infrastructure Ltd carries total debt of ₹6,899 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹11,693 Cr as of Jun 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.59. On the annual view that ratio went from 1.37 in FY22 to 0.59 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Jun 26: total debt of ₹6,899 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹11,693 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.59. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 1.37 (FY22) to 0.59 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 11.7 points of JSW Infrastructure Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 73.9% of the company. Foreign institutions moved +7.1 points over the same window, to 11.2%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

Why this happened. Jaigarh is expanding from 21 to 34 million tonnes and Dharmtar from 24 to 38 million tonnes through berth civil works (Jaigarh 60 percent dredging complete) and new berth construction. Ennore coal terminal expanded from 9.6 to 11 million tonnes per annum with interim operations already contributing. The Dolvi steel expansion at 10-15 million tonnes will flow through Dharmtar. These brownfield additions improve blended portfolio returns as they capitalize at lower cost-per-tonne versus greenfield. Ennore demonstrates the repeatable model: from 8 million tonnes capacity and 3.1 million tonnes volume (FY21) to 11 million tonnes capacity and 10.4 million tonnes volume (FY26).

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −11.7 points over 8 quarters to 73.9%; Foreign institutions: +7.1 points over 8 quarters to 11.2%; Domestic institutions: +6.4 points over 8 quarters to 9.2%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−11.7 points), absorbed on the other side by foreign institutions (+7.1 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

JSW Infrastructure Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

JSW Infrastructure Ltd trades at 51.6× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (75th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 43.6×, measured across 2.9 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 51.6× is at the pricey end of its own range (75th percentile), against a long-run median of 43.6× measured over 2.9 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +1.3% against a +8.9% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +26.0%/yr price move, ~+22.0%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+4.0 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 28 June 2026 price, JSW Infrastructure Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 26.0% a year. Profit itself has compounded 19.6% a year over the past 9 years. Today the market pays 51.6× P/E, the 75th percentile of its own 3-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is above what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 28 June 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

JSW Infrastructure Ltd reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — profit and EPS growth are shrinking (profit growth −6.2% latest against +219.4% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE holding at 13.5%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.

4-Factor Sector Score

58.5/100 — rank 2 of 3 in Marine Port & Services · 97% evidence confidence

JSW Infrastructure Ltd scores 58.5 out of 100 against the 3 companies it is compared with in Marine Port & Services, ranking 2. Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 20.1%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 14.7 + 12.8 + 11 + 20 = 58.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What JSW Infrastructure Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Oman Port Project Status Appears Less Advanced Than Previously Represented · 21 July 2026. In January 2026, management said it had entered into an agreement with Minerals Development Oman to develop a 27 million tonnes per annum port backed by a USD419 million investment. In July 2026, management said bids had only been invited and that the concession agreement remained pending completion of conditions precedent, without reconciling whether the earlier agreement was preliminary or binding.

Southwest Port Capacity Does Not Match Prior Expansion Plan · 21 July 2026. In July 2025, management said Southwest Port had environmental clearance for 15 million tonnes per annum and that the remaining state-level approval to increase capacity was being pursued. In July 2026, management reported consent to operate at only 12 million tonnes per annum, without clarifying whether the 15 million tonnes target remains achievable or why the operating approval is lower.

Logistics EBITDA Guidance Cut While Claimed as Unchanged · 8 May 2026. In the Jan 2026 call, the CEO explicitly guided FY27 logistics EBITDA at INR450-500 crores and FY28 at INR750-800 crores, with the CFO building to these totals through a detailed component breakdown. In the May 2026 call, the CFO asserts the logistics guidance 'remains the same' while stating INR400 crores for FY27 and INR700 crores for FY28 - a reduction of approximately 16% from the CEO's FY27 midpoint of INR475 crores and 10-12% from the FY28 range midpoint, offered without any explanation for the downward revision.

Oman Greenfield Port: Concrete Agreement Announced, Concession Still Unfinalized Months Later · 8 May 2026. In the Jan 2026 call, management announced in prepared remarks having entered into an agreement with Minerals Development Oman for a 27 MTPA greenfield port backed by USD419 million, presenting this as a concrete project milestone. By the May 2026 call four months later, the formal port concession agreement remains under negotiation, with management explicitly deferring Oman-specific work until regional geopolitical tensions ease, suggesting the project is materially less advanced than the Jan 2026 announcement implied to investors modeling Oman capacity in their long-range forecasts.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

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