India Tourism Development Corporation Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

India Tourism Development Corporation Ltd trades at ₹690, in a confirmed uptrend and 14 weeks into that stage. That is +12.4% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 85% of a 52-week range of ₹387 to ₹743. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 11 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 14 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹690 it trades +12.4% versus its 200-day average and sits at 85% of its 52-week range (₹387–₹743).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +281% while the NIFTY 500 moved +267% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 11 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

India Tourism Development Corporation Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 27 June 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: MID_EXPANSION. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 27 June 2026.

Our read, 27 June 2026. Government-owned hospitality company with near-peak margins and declining revenue — the trailing PE of sixty-two times is optically cheap vs its own history only because earnings are at a ten-year margin high.

From the numbers. The trailing PE of sixty-two times is at the twenty-first percentile of the ten-year range — which looks cheap relative to own history. However, this is the PEAK_MARGIN_VALUE_TRAP: ITDC historically had very high or…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 14 — above its 200-day line, relative strength falling.

From the research. Government-owned hospitality company with near-peak margins and declining revenue — the trailing PE of sixty-two times is optically cheap vs its own history only because earnings are at a ten-year margin high.

🚨 Where they disagree. The trailing PE of sixty-two times is at the twenty-first percentile of the ten-year range — which looks cheap relative to own history. However, this is the PEAK_MARGIN_VALUE_TRAP: ITDC historically had very high or infinite PEs when margins were thin (the normal state), and current low-historical-percentile PE reflects peak earnings rather than cheap price. At normalized margins, the effective multiple rises to approximately the sixty-fourth percentile. The stock is in a late-cycle position where price has not yet reflected the risk of margin mean-reversion.

What is proven. Government-owned hospitality company with near-peak margins and declining revenue — the trailing PE of sixty-two times is optically cheap vs its own history only because earnings are at a ten-year margin high.

What is not proven yet. If ITDC reports three consecutive quarters of operating margin above fifteen percent alongside revenue growth year-on-year, that would indicate the current margin level is structurally sustainable rather than cyclically peak. Alternatively, a confirmed government divestment announcement with a disclosed floor price above the current market would create a specific catalyst that changes the risk-reward.

🚨 What would change our mind. If ITDC reports three consecutive quarters of operating margin above fifteen percent alongside revenue growth year-on-year, that would indicate the current margin level is structurally sustainable rather than cyclically peak. Alternatively, a confirmed government divestment announcement with a disclosed floor price above the current market would create a specific catalyst that changes the risk-reward.

🚨 Layer 1 read, 27 June 2026 — DROP. Optically cheap PE is a peak-margin illusion on a shrinking-revenue PSU — ranks to the bottom. ITDC's trailing PE of 62x sits at the 27th percentile only because earnings ride a 10-year-high margin (~21% vs ~8% normalized) while revenue is actually declining 6% YoY; on normalized margins the effective PE is near 120x. With MoS EXTREME -83.6%, ROCE rolling over, fewer than two forward drivers, and a synthetic (web-fallback) source, this is a peak-margin value-trap mirror that ranks near the bottom of the batch.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. If ITDC delivers three consecutive quarters of OPM above 15% ALONGSIDE positive YoY revenue growth — proving the margin is structurally sustainable rather than cyclically peak — or a confirmed government divestment with a disclosed floor above the current price, the trap read inverts and it re-rates up; absent that, the peak-margin/declining-revenue read holds.

The test written in advance. Peak margin mean-reversion risk — Peak margin mean-reversion risk by the next result.

The test written in advance. Revenue contraction trend — Revenue contraction trend by the next result.

Lever 7 · Consolidation — BUILDING. Post-COVID structural growth in domestic and international tourism has lifted hotel occupancy and average room rates across India. What proves it keeps working: India tourism sector tailwind. It stops working if Domestic travel demand contracts due to economic slowdown, or international arrivals fail to grow as expected, pulling average room rates below the level needed to support fifteen-percent-plus OPM.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. Margin improvement partly reflects cost discipline and fixed-cost leverage as revenue normalized from the COVID trough. What proves it keeps working: Operational efficiency from cost discipline. It stops working if Revenue declines more than ten percent from current levels, making fixed cost absorption deteriorate and pulling OPM back below ten percent.

Sources: our stock research file (27 June 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

India Tourism Development Corporation Ltd reported ₹90.1 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +2.7% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 1.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹533 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹535 Cr.

Why this happened. India's domestic tourism has been on a sustained recovery since FY22, with both inbound international arrivals and domestic leisure travel growing. Government-hosted international events (G20 and related conclaves) boosted hotel demand in key cities where ITDC properties are located. As the largest government hospitality chain with prime urban locations, ITDC captured a share of this demand improvement. The benefit shows up in the margin expansion from zero in FY22 to seventeen percent in FY26 annual terms.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹533 Cr (−6.7% on the year), capping 10 years at 1.5% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹90.1 Cr, +2.7% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −4.1% growth against the decade's 1.5% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −7.2% over the last 4 quarters against +4.3%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +4.0% vs +17.9%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

India Tourism Development Corporation Ltd's operating margin is 9.3% in the Jun 26 quarter, −1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −25.0% to 18.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. The recovery from near-zero OPM in FY22 to seventeen percent in FY26 partly reflects revenue normalization against a mostly fixed cost base. Government-mandated tariff structures and some operating cost contracts may also provide more pricing power than a pure private hotel would have. However, with the cost base now reset to current staffing and maintenance levels, further margin improvement is limited without either volume recovery or additional rate increases.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 9.3%, −1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −25.0%–18.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −1.0 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.8 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

India Tourism Development Corporation Ltd earned ₹9.4 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −3.6% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹82.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 16.4%. That is 10.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹9.7 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹9.4 Cr, −3.6% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹82.0 Cr (+2.5%), and the 10-year compound rate is 16.4%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +2.7% and the margin −1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +3.8% vs revenue −4.1%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 53% of India Tourism Development Corporation Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹70.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹82.0 Cr of profit. After ₹10.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹60.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹70.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹82.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹60.0 Cr after ₹10.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 53% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at 53%: the cash cycle stretched 108 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 108 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

India Tourism Development Corporation Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs −607 days in FY26, up from −715 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹23.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹533 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹1.5 Cr, so roughly ₹−886 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 76 days, inventory at 201 days — roughly 6.6 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of −607 days, looser than FY21's −715.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 201 days to sell; customers pay about 76 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 884 days — netting out to the −607-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹533 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹1.5 Cr — so the −607-day loop keeps roughly ₹−886 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹23.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹21.0 Cr of depreciation — building somewhat ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹9.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

India Tourism Development Corporation Ltd earns a ROCE of 30% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −12% in FY21. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 15.4% net margin on 0.70× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 30%, recovered from a FY21 trough of −12% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 15.4% net margin × 0.70× asset turns × 1.80× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 19.4% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 6.6% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

India Tourism Development Corporation Ltd carries ₹1.0 Cr of borrowings against ₹423 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.00. Operating profit covers the interest bill 46×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹1.0 Cr to ₹1.0 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹23.0 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹1.0 Cr against equity of ₹423 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.00. Operating profit covers the interest bill 46×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹1.0 Cr to ₹1.0 Cr while capital spending ran ₹23.0 Cr in just the last 3 — the build-out is being paid for out of cash, not debt.

The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 6.6% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of India Tourism Development Corporation Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Foreign institutions moved +0.0 points over the same window, to 0.0%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 87.0%; Foreign institutions: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 0.0%; Domestic institutions: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 1.8%.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

India Tourism Development Corporation Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

India Tourism Development Corporation Ltd trades at 71.6× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (37th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 87.8×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 71.6× is mid-range by its own standards (37th percentile), against a long-run median of 87.8× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +2.9% against a +6.3% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 10y, of the +12.8%/yr price move, ~+10.5%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+2.3 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 6.6% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 28 June 2026 price, India Tourism Development Corporation Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 29.7% a year. Profit itself has compounded 16.4% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 71.6× P/E, the 37th percentile of its own 11-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is unremarkable against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is above what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 28 June 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Topping out Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

India Tourism Development Corporation Ltd reads as topping out on its fundamental arc. Topping out — revenue, profit and EPS growth have decelerated hard (revenue growth +14.7% at its peak → −7.2% latest) while ROCE still reads 30.0%. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: decelerating from a peak is where good stories quietly end — the multiple usually notices late.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

56.8/100 — rank 1 of 3 in Resorts · 72% evidence confidence

India Tourism Development Corporation Ltd scores 56.8 out of 100 against the 3 companies it is compared with in Resorts, ranking 1. Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 18.9%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 9.9 + 19.3 + 10 + 17.6 = 56.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Frequently asked questions