Capri Global Capital Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Capri Global Capital Ltd trades at ₹266, in a confirmed uptrend and 16 weeks into that stage. That is +26.2% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 88% of a 52-week range of ₹160 to ₹280. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 29 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 16 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹266 it trades +26.2% versus its 200-day average and sits at 88% of its 52-week range (₹160–₹280).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +3,888% while the NIFTY 500 moved +267% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 29 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Capri Global Capital Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 22 August 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: MID_EXPANSION. Still open: A deterioration in gross or net Stage 3 while the gold-loan mix and branch rollout continue to rise would show that the higher return profile is not surviving scale.

Our read, 22 August 2026. Capri is delivering rapid secured-lending scale and higher returns, but the current price already reflects much of that progress; the next rerating requires delivery against raised targets without another credibility reset.

What is proven. Capri is delivering rapid secured-lending scale and higher returns, but the current price already reflects much of that progress; the next rerating requires delivery against raised targets without another credibility reset.

What is not proven yet. A deterioration in gross or net Stage 3 while the gold-loan mix and branch rollout continue to rise would show that the higher return profile is not surviving scale.

🚨 What would change our mind. A deterioration in gross or net Stage 3 while the gold-loan mix and branch rollout continue to rise would show that the higher return profile is not surviving scale.

Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — KEEP. Best twelve-quarter engine in the batch, but management keeps raising targets before delivering the last ones. Over three years Capri's quarterly revenue almost tripled to Rs 1,576 crore and profit went from Rs 65 crore to Rs 353 crore while bad loans fell from 1.96% to 1.1% of the book — and the earnings are doing the work, not the market, because the price-to-book multiple actually fell 23% over the last eight quarters while earnings per share rose 193%. The catch is trusting the forecasts: in the same call that reported this, management lifted its two-year loan-book target, its return targets and its branch target all at once without showing the arithmetic, one quarter after a promised gold-loan pricing gain failed to arrive. The balance sheet gives it room to keep growing — borrowings are only…

What would change Layer 1’s mind. Gross or net Stage 3 rising while the gold mix and branch count keep climbing — concretely gold-book gross NPA above 0.5% or consolidated gross NPA back over 1.4% in the Sep 2026 quarter — or a fifth upward target revision landing before the 150-branch Q2 milestone is even reported, which would turn the guidance-credibility discount into an actual thesis break.

Layer 2 read, 22 August 2026 — ADVANCE. Organic gold-loan growth survives the sector stress, but capacity and guidance risks must cap conviction. Gold AUM rose even when the gold price fell in the quarter, and gross and net Stage 3 remained contained, confirming that the exceptional growth signal is not only a price effect. The external brake is severe: the sector is in the CAPACITY_RISK cell and its Jun-2026 profit and margin eased, while management raised targets without a bridge.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. Flip ADVANCE to DROP if gross Stage 3 rises above 1.5% or net Stage 3 above 1.0% in either of the next two quarters while branch and gold-loan growth continue; that would show CAPACITY_RISK has reached Capri's book.

Layer 3 read, 22 August 2026 — BENCH. The growth is real, but repeated target resets and gold-collateral stress keep Capri on the bench. The growth alert is not a base-effect trick: gold AUM rose 111.0% despite a 4.0% quarterly gold-price decline. The risk search also shows why the stock is not ready: that gold move pushed Rs 373 crore into Stage 2, while CLM1 migration slowed co-lending income. Management beat FY26 profit guidance but missed the gold-yield promise and raised several targets without a bridge.

What would change Layer 3’s mind. A Sep-2026 quarter where gold-led Stage 3 assets do not rise while the branch build continues would support DEPLOY; another rise in Stage 3 during expansion would flip the intact thesis toward DROP.

The test written in advance. A deterioration in gross or net Stage 3 while the gold-loan mix and branch rollout continue to rise would show that the higher return profile is not surviving scale. — the thesis as written as stated by the next result.

The test written in advance. Guidance credibility and valuation discount — Guidance credibility and valuation discount Any further material target revision before the associated milestone is reported by the next result.

The test written in advance. Gold-loan concentration and collateral volatility — Gold-loan concentration and collateral volatility Gold gross NPA above 0.5% or average disbursement LTV above 75% by the next result.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: PAT growth above 50% suggests rapid acceleration. The research reads it further: The rise is visible across four quarters, and the one-off ledger flags no PAT adjustment in these quarters; management attributes the latest print to volume, spread, fee income and operating leverage.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: The latest gross and net NPA ratios look contained. The research reads it further: The latest gross NPA rise versus Mar 2026 occurred alongside a construction-finance account issue, while management says gold-book asset-quality controls use low average disbursement LTV and automated action thresholds.

Lever 14 · A bigger market to sell into — BUILDING. Gold AUM reached Rs 19,179 crore in Jun FY27 and management plans 400 new branches by December 2026. What proves it keeps working: Gold-loan distribution and branch productivity. It stops working if Branch additions miss the stated December 2026 completion date or gold-book asset quality worsens as the mix rises.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. Management attributes lower cost-to-income and rising profitability to technology, branch maturation and employee productivity. What proves it keeps working: Operating leverage and technology productivity. It stops working if New branch expenses lift cost-to-income above management’s stated range without compensating volume growth.

Lever 8 · Demerger or value unlock — BUILDING. Management reported a 7.8% spread and expects further gold-loan yield improvement, while cost-of-funds reduction scope is limited for the remainder of FY27. What proves it keeps working: Spread and funding-mix improvement. It stops working if Gold yields fail to improve while funding costs remain flat and spreads fall below the stated range.

Lever 3 · Management change — BUILDING. Insurance generated Rs 42 crore of net fee income in Jun FY27 and non-interest income grew 20.0% year on year to Rs 217 crore. What proves it keeps working: Fee-income and distribution mix. It stops working if Fee income slows as co-lending migration drags longer than management expects.

Sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fee and other income.

Capri Global Capital Ltd reported ₹1,576 Cr of income in the Jun 26 quarter, +57.0% year on year. That is the 11th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 38.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹4,734 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹5,305 Cr.

Why this happened. Gold AUM grew despite a quarterly gold-price decline, with management attributing growth to customer demand and branch productivity. The branch plan is measurable and supplies the near-term volume runway, but it also increases collateral and execution concentration.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹4,734 Cr (+45.7% on the year), capping 10 years at 38.0% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹1,576 Cr, +57.0% year on year — the 11th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +50.0% growth against the decade's 38.0% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +50.1% over the last 4 quarters against +44.8%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +95.0% vs +96.5%/yr — stabilising.

Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every ₹100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. It is the cleanest single margin we can read for a lender.

Capri Global Capital Ltd's net margin is 22.4% in the Jun 26 quarter, +5.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 12.1% to 50.6%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. The operating-leverage catapult applies only if incremental volume continues to be absorbed without equivalent cost growth. The latest call reported a lower cost-to-income ratio alongside higher PPOP and PAT, and described measurable collections and workflow automation activity.

The latest quarter's net margin is 22.4%, +5.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 12.1%–50.6%.

Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Capri Global Capital Ltd earned ₹353 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +101.7% year on year. It is the 11th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹949 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 36.0%. That is 22.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹175 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹353 Cr, +101.7% year on year — the 11th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹949 Cr (+98.1%), and the 10-year compound rate is 36.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +57.0% and the margin +5.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +100.8% vs revenue +50.0%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.

Capri Global Capital Ltd's gross NPA is 1.10% of the loan book in Jun 26, down from 1.67% a year ago. Net of provisions already set aside, 0.60% remains. Across the 12 quarters held here the book has ranged 1.00% to 2.10%. Falling NPAs are a loan book healing; rising NPAs are damage arriving.

Jun 26: gross NPA at 1.10% and net NPA at 0.60%, against 1.67% / 0.99% a year ago. Over the 12 quarters we hold, the book's worst reading was 2.10% and its best is 1.00%.

The synthesis: profit growth at a bank is only as good as the book behind it, and this book is better than a year ago. A note on depth: quarterly provisioning detail is not in our numbers yet, so this ladder reads levels and trend, not the cost of the cleanup.

Why the ladder moved: recoveries, write-offs and slippages each play a part, and that split sits below what we hold — the numbers show the healing; the driver mix does not travel with them.

The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book grows, revenue grows with it. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.

Capri Global Capital Ltd's revenue grew +45.7% in FY26 to ₹4,734 Cr, so the book is growing. The latest quarter ran +57.0% year on year. The net margin on that income is 22.4%, +5.0 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.

FY26 revenue was ₹4,734 Cr, +45.7% on the year, and the latest quarter ran +57.0% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 22.4% this quarter (+5.0 pp YoY) — growth with a widening margin on it.

The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — gross NPA is the loan-quality read we carry here.

Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.

Capri Global Capital Ltd earns a return on equity of 16% in FY26. Its trough over the ladder below was 4% in FY16. For a lender the balance sheet is the operating asset, so equity return and asset return have to be read together.

FY26 ROE came in at 16%, recovered from a FY16 trough of 4%. Return on assets is withheld on this page — its two source series disagree for this quarter. That clears the bar a bank must beat for its book value to compound.

Why ROE moved: profit compounded 36.0% a year over 10 years while the equity base grew more slowly — earnings recovering faster than book value builds is what lifts ROE off a trough.

Debt

For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.

A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 10.0 points of Capri Global Capital Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 59.9% of the company. Foreign institutions moved +7.2 points over the same window, to 8.2%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

Why this happened. Insurance, car-loan distribution and capital-efficient channels diversify earnings beyond lending spread. The quality test is whether fee growth persists while co-lending partners complete the regulatory migration.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −10.0 points over 8 quarters to 59.9%; Foreign institutions: +7.2 points over 8 quarters to 8.2%; Domestic institutions: +4.3 points over 8 quarters to 18.4%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−10.0 points), absorbed on the other side by foreign institutions (+7.2 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Capri Global Capital Ltd: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.

Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each ₹1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.

Capri Global Capital Ltd trades at 3.5× P/BV, mid-range by its own standards (55th percentile). Its long-run median P/BV is 3.2×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Why this happened. The predictable repricing catalyst is partly active through higher-yield product mix and gold-loan pricing. It is not an open-ended funding-cost story because management stated there was little further reduction scope in FY27.

Today's P/BV of 3.5× is mid-range by its own standards (55th percentile), against a long-run median of 3.2× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year book value grew while the price moved +43.0% — price and book moved together, holding the multiple in its range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +17.2%/yr price move, ~+29.6%/yr came from book-value growth and ~−12.4 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +37.2%/yr price move, ~+18.4%/yr came from book-value growth and ~+18.8 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus book-value growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 24 August 2026 price, Capri Global Capital Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 11.8% a year. Profit itself has compounded 36.0% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 3.5× P/BV, the 55th percentile of its own 11-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is unremarkable against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 24 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Capri Global Capital Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: profit growth has eased from +119.8% at its peak to +95.0% but is still expanding, ROE holding at 13.2%. The read is built from 11 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

4-Factor Sector Score

75.1/100 — rank 2 of 6 in Finance & Investments - Gold Loan · 100% evidence confidence

Capri Global Capital Ltd scores 75.1 out of 100 against the 6 companies it is compared with in Finance & Investments - Gold Loan, ranking 2. Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 29.3 + 21.6 + 4.2 + 20 = 75.1. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Capri Global Capital Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

FY27/FY28 AUM Guidance Raised · 29 July 2026. In May 2026, management guided to INR46,000 crores of AUM by FY27 and INR57,000 crores by FY28, while the latest call raised those targets to INR50,000 crores and INR65,000 crores, respectively. Although management described the change as an upward revision, it did not reconcile the prior guidance or identify a specific change in operating assumptions supporting the materially higher targets.

Sustainable ROE and ROA Targets Raised · 29 July 2026. The latest call increased the FY28 sustainable ROE target from 16%-18% to 19%-21% and the ROA target from 4%-4.5% to 4.2%-4.7%. The higher targets are material for valuation, but management did not explain what changed beyond citing the strong Q1 performance and ongoing operating leverage.

Gold Loan Concentration Target Increased · 29 July 2026. Management previously indicated that gold loans could reach about 50% of AUM, after previously expecting a 45%-46% mix. The latest call raised the medium-term target to 55%, increasing concentration risk and changing the portfolio mix outlook without explaining why the target was raised despite the recent volatility in gold prices.

Gold Loan Branch Expansion Target and Timeline Changed · 29 July 2026. In May 2026, management expected to add 350 gold loan branches during FY27, with all of them operational within the financial year. The latest call increased the target to 400 branches and moved completion to on or before December 2026, a material acceleration and expansion that was labeled a revision but not supported by an explanation of the changed rollout assumptions.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions