Sector Alpha Week of 2026-09-11
Not SEBI Registered !! Not Investment advice !!
Sector Alpha — machine-written from the numbers · Data as of 2026-09-11

Adani Total Gas Ltd

ATGL
Gas Distribution

Adani Total Gas Ltd is cheap for a reason. The P/E sits at the 35th percentile of its own range, and the quarters are still getting worse.

The sharpest disagreement: the P/E sits at the 35th percentile of its own range, but the engine is deteriorating — cheap for a reason until the quarters turn.

The price is in a confirmed uptrend (16 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 35th percentile of its own 8-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read deteriorating — profit −13.9% year on year, and 155% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether the quarters turn before the discount closes.

Stage
Deteriorating
fundamental trajectory, 12 quarters
Price
₹595
−1.8% 1Y
P/E
103.0×
35th pctile
of its own 8-year range
Revenue (Jun 26)
₹1,754 Cr
+27.2% YoY
Profit (Jun 26)
₹142 Cr
−13.9% YoY
Operating margin
15.0%
−6.0 pp YoY
ROCE
15%
FY26
ROIC
8.4%
vs WACC 12.0% → −3.6 pp
Cash conversion
155%
of profit, last 3 FY
01 · Price story

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Adani Total Gas Ltd trades at ₹595, in a confirmed uptrend and 16 weeks into that stage. That is −6.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 39% of a 52-week range of ₹483 to ₹773. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (9 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 16 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹595 it trades −6.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 39% of its 52-week range (₹483–₹773).

Sep 26: ₹595 Weekly closing price (₹) with 50- and 200-day averages; shaded bands mark the price stage (grey base, green advance, amber top, red decline). 3-year window.
−6.8% versus the 200-day line, week 16 of stage 2
Price50-day avg200-day avg
S4S4S2₹1,332₹1,104₹876₹648₹420₹595₹638Sep 23Jun 24Mar 25Jan 26Sep 26
S4S4S2₹1,332₹1,104₹876₹648₹420₹595₹638Sep 23Mar 25Sep 26
Beating or trailing, week by week since 2018 Each cell is one week from 2018 to now (415 weeks): the stock's trailing 13-week return minus the NIFTY 500's, green ahead / red behind (±25% ramp). Grey cells are the 13-week warm-up or weeks where the NIFTY 500 reading is not held.
trailing 13-week return vs the NIFTY 500
Nov 18Sep 26

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 7.8 years the stock moved +644% while the NIFTY 500 moved +156% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (9 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-10) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

02 · Story check

Story check

Adani Total Gas Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 19 July 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: Not stated in the research file. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 19 July 2026.

NOT YET CHECKED

Our read, 19 July 2026. A city-gas distributor with volume and network expansion, but a margin recovery is unproven and the multiple offers no standalone valuation support.

What is proven. A city-gas distributor with volume and network expansion, but a margin recovery is unproven and the multiple offers no standalone valuation support.

What is not proven yet. The thesis would improve only if operating margin and return on capital recover while the network build continues; it would fail if margin pressure persists and incremental capital does not produce a visible utilisation ramp.

🚨 What would change our mind. The thesis would improve only if operating margin and return on capital recover while the network build continues; it would fail if margin pressure persists and incremental capital does not produce a visible utilisation ramp.

🚨 Layer 1 read, 19 July 2026 — DROP. Revenue grows but per-share earnings are flat and returns are eroding — a 119x multiple with no earnings engine to grow into it. Adani Total Gas keeps growing revenue (Rs 1,056→1,557 Cr per quarter) but the number that matters — EPS — has been dead flat around Rs 1.5 for three years, and return on capital has halved from 25% to 15% while gross margin slid from 38% to 32%. Yet the stock trades at an absolutely rich 119x, a level whose implied growth is arithmetically IMPOSSIBLE (42% for years). The timeline's own thesis concedes the multiple offers no standalone valuation support — this is the fund's #1 loser signature (re-rating without EPS), ranked to the bottom rather than dropped only because volumes are still expanding.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. If operating margin recovers toward 21% AND ROCE turns back above 17% while network utilisation visibly ramps, the earnings engine restarts and the rich multiple gains support — upgrade; absent that, persistent margin pressure with capital not converting to utilisation confirms the trap.

The test written in advance. The thesis would improve only if operating margin and return on capital recover while the network build continues; it would fail if margin pressure persists and incremental capital does not produce a visible utilisation ramp. — the thesis as written as stated by the next result.

What the company does. Revenue and operating profit have grown with the network, while operating margin is below the earlier level. Gross and operating margins moved down together, pointing to gas-input and pricing pressure rather than a simple overhead problem. Cash generation funds network buildout, but return on capital must recover before expansion earns a valuation premium.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: Revenue growth indicates an expanding business. The research reads it further: Profit did not keep pace with revenue because annual operating margin declined. The co-mover is the quarterly gross-margin decline, pointing to input-cost and pricing pressure rather than a pure volume issue.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: Falling return on capital indicates weaker capital efficiency. The research reads it further: The co-mover is larger work in progress and borrowings, consistent with infrastructure that has not yet reached utilisation. Management explicitly describes lower initial returns in new geographic areas before a later ramp.

Sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

03 · Revenue

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Adani Total Gas Ltd reported ₹1,754 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +27.2% year on year. That is the 11th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 8 years it has compounded at 20.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹5,894 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹6,269 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹5,894 Cr (+17.9% on the year), capping 8 years at 20.0% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹1,754 Cr, +27.2% year on year — the 11th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

FY26 revenue ₹5,894 Cr (+17.9% YoY) Revenue bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 9-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
20.0% a year over 8 years
RevenueYoY growth
6.4k86%4.8k60%3.2k35%1.6k9.1%0−17%₹ Cr%₹5,89417.9%FY18FY22FY26
6.4k86%4.8k60%3.2k35%1.6k9.1%0−17%₹ Cr%₹5,89417.9%FY18FY22FY26
Jun 26: ₹1,754 Cr (+27.2% YoY) Quarterly revenue bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
11th straight quarter of growth
Revenue (quarterly)YoY growth
1.9k30%1.4k21%94713%4744.3%0−4.1%₹ Cr%₹1,75427.2%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
1.9k30%1.4k21%94713%4744.3%0−4.1%₹ Cr%₹1,75427.2%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +19.7% growth against the decade's 20.0% — the current year is running in line with its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +19.8% over the last 4 quarters against +17.2%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit −2.5% vs −4.3%/yr — stabilising.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹1,557 Cr and profit ₹168 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹1,754 Cr and profit ₹142 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

04 · Operating margin

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Adani Total Gas Ltd's operating margin is 15.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, −6.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 9 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 20.0% to 42.0%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

Why this happened. Gross and operating margins fell together, pointing to input cost and pass-through pressure. The sourcing mix and pricing strategy influence that pressure but do not prove a return to the earlier margin band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 15.0%, −6.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 9 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 20.0%–42.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −5.9 pp year on year while gross margin went −6.7 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

FY26: 20.0% Operating margin by fiscal year, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). 9-year window.
within a 20.0–42.0% band over 9 years
operating marginYoY change (pp)
44%12%37%4.3%31%−3.5%25%−11%18%−19%%%20%−3%FY18FY22FY26
44%12%37%4.3%31%−3.5%25%−11%18%−19%%%20%−3%FY18FY22FY26
Jun 26: 15.0% operating margin (−6.0 pp YoY) Quarterly operating margin, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). Last 12 quarters. Operating profit as a share of revenue, per quarter.
Operating marginYoY change (pp)
27%9.1%24%5.1%21%1.0%17%−3.1%14%−7.1%%%15%−6%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
27%9.1%24%5.1%21%1.0%17%−3.1%14%−7.1%%%15%−6%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹1,557 Cr and profit ₹168 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹1,754 Cr and profit ₹142 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

05 · Net profit

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Adani Total Gas Ltd earned ₹142 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −13.9% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹656 Cr. The 8-year compound rate is 19.1%. That is 8.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹165 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹142 Cr, −13.9% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹656 Cr (+0.3%), and the 8-year compound rate is 19.1%.

FY26 profit ₹656 Cr (+0.3% YoY) Net profit bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 9-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
19.1% a year over 8 years
Net profitYoY growth
72198%54171%36144%18017%0−9.5%₹ Cr%₹6560.3%FY18FY22FY26
72198%54171%36144%18017%0−9.5%₹ Cr%₹6560.3%FY18FY22FY26
Jun 26: ₹142 Cr (−13.9% YoY) Quarterly net profit bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
Net profit (quarterly)YoY growth
20179%15152%10026%500.0%0−27%₹ Cr%₹142−13.9%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
20179%15152%10026%500.0%0−27%₹ Cr%₹142−13.9%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +27.2% and the margin −6.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −1.5% vs revenue +19.7%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹1,557 Cr and profit ₹168 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹1,754 Cr and profit ₹142 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

06 · Cash flow — the router

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 155% of Adani Total Gas Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹1,149 Cr of operating cash against ₹656 Cr of profit. After ₹1,035 Cr of capital spending, ₹114 Cr was left as free cash.

Why this happened. Operating cash flow exceeds profit, while investment outflow, work in progress, and borrowings rose. The next proof point is whether new areas lift return on capital as utilisation builds.

FY26: operating cash of ₹1,149 Cr against reported profit of ₹656 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹114 Cr after ₹1,035 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 155% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

FY26: CFO ₹1,149 Cr vs profit ₹656 Cr Operating cash flow and net profit by fiscal year, ₹ Cr; the line is free cash flow (CFO minus capital spending). 9-year window, annual resolution.
155% of 3-year profit arrived as cash
Operating cashNet profitFree cash
1.3k8434200−427₹ Cr₹1,149₹656₹114FY18FY22FY26
1.3k8434200−427₹ Cr₹1,149₹656₹114FY18FY22FY26
FY26: CFO = 175% of profit (three-year rate 155%) Operating cash as a share of net profit, per fiscal year, % (line). Dashed line = 100% — every unit of profit arriving as cash.
Conversion100%
181%159%138%116%94%%175%FY18FY22FY26
181%159%138%116%94%%175%FY18FY22FY26

Why conversion sits at 155%: the cash cycle stretched 34 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 4.9× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

07 · Where the cash goes

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Adani Total Gas Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 26 days in FY26, up from −8 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹2,966 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹5,894 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹16.1 Cr, so roughly ₹420 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

Why this happened. Annual revenue increased, and the concall records higher CNG activity and a staged return profile for new geographic areas. This driver is volume and utilisation, not assumed margin expansion.

FY26: debtors at 26 days, inventory at 10 days — roughly 0.3 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 26 days, looser than FY21's −8.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 10 days to sell; customers pay about 26 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 34 days — netting out to the 26-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹5,894 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹16.1 Cr — so the 26-day loop keeps roughly ₹420 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

FY26: a 26-day cash cycle Debtor days, inventory days, payable days and the cash conversion cycle by fiscal year. 9-year window.
+34 days vs FY21
Cash cycleInventory daysDebtor daysPayable days
6243256−13days26d10d26d34dFY18FY20FY22FY24FY26
6243256−13days26d10d26d34dFY18FY22FY26

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹2,966 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹605 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹2,001 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

FY26: capex ₹1,035 Cr, work-in-progress ₹2,001 Cr Capital spending per fiscal year, ₹ Cr (bars); capital work-in-progress, ₹ Cr (line). Quarterly capital-spending history is not held for India — annual is the honest resolution.
a build-out
CapexWork-in-progress
2.2k1.6k1.1k5400₹ Cr₹1,035₹2,001FY19FY20FY22FY24FY26
2.2k1.6k1.1k5400₹ Cr₹1,035₹2,001FY19FY22FY26

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

08 · Return on capital

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Adani Total Gas Ltd earns a ROCE of 15% in FY26. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −3.6 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 11.1% net margin on 0.62× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 15%.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 11.1% net margin × 0.62× asset turns × 1.96× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 13.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 8.4% − 12.0% = a −3.6 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

FY26: ROCE 15% Return on capital employed by fiscal year, % (line). 8-year window, dips included. Dashed line = the 12.0% cost of capital used on this page.
the full ladder
ROCEWACC
36%29%23%17%10%%15%FY19FY22FY26
36%29%23%17%10%%15%FY19FY22FY26
Q4 FY26: ROCE 13.0% (TTM) Trailing-twelve-month ROCE, per quarter, %. Last 12 quarters, put on a trailing-twelve-month basis and anchored to the annual figure.
ROCE (TTM)
23%20%18%15%12%%13%Q2 FY24Q3 FY25Q1 FY27
23%20%18%15%12%%13%Q2 FY24Q3 FY25Q1 FY27
09 · Debt

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Adani Total Gas Ltd carries total debt of ₹2,853 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹4,865 Cr as of Jun 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.59. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.43 in FY22 to 0.59 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Jun 26: total debt of ₹2,853 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹4,865 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.59. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.43 (FY22) to 0.59 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

FY26: debt ₹2,853 Cr at 0.59× equity Total debt by fiscal year, ₹ Cr (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). 5-year window.
Total debtDebt-to-equity
3.1k0.60×2.3k0.56×1.5k0.51×7700.46×00.42×₹ Cr×₹2,8530.59×FY22FY24FY26
3.1k0.60×2.3k0.56×1.5k0.51×7700.46×00.42×₹ Cr×₹2,8530.59×FY22FY24FY26
Jun 26: debt ₹2,853 Cr, debt-to-equity 0.59 Total debt per quarter, ₹ Cr (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). Last 12 quarters. India reports the full balance sheet half-yearly, so the intervening quarter carries the prior reading forward.
Total debt (quarterly)Debt-to-equity
3.1k0.61×2.3k0.54×1.5k0.48×7700.42×00.35×₹ Cr×₹2,8530.59×Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
3.1k0.61×2.3k0.54×1.5k0.48×7700.42×00.35×₹ Cr×₹2,8530.59×Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
10 · Ownership

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Adani Total Gas Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Domestic institutions moved +0.2 points over the same window, to 6.3%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −0.2 points over 8 quarters to 12.8%; Domestic institutions: +0.2 points over 8 quarters to 6.3%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 74.8%.

Fiscal-year ends: promoters +0.0 pts from Mar 24 to Mar 26 Shareholding at each fiscal-year end (March quarter), % of the company. 3 year-ends held.
PromotersForeign inst.Domestic inst.Public
80%60%40%20%0.0%%74.8%12.8%6.3%6.2%Mar 24Mar 25Mar 26
80%60%40%20%0.0%%74.8%12.8%6.3%6.2%Mar 24Mar 25Mar 26
A quiet register: no holder moved a full point in two years Shareholding by holder class, % of the company, quarterly, last 13 quarters.
PromotersForeign inst.Domestic inst.Public
80%60%40%20%0.0%%74.8%12.8%6.3%6.1%Jun 23Dec 24Jun 26
80%60%40%20%0.0%%74.8%12.8%6.3%6.1%Jun 23Dec 24Jun 26
11 · Safety line

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Adani Total Gas Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

12 · Valuation

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Adani Total Gas Ltd trades at 103.0× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 35% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 116.5×, measured across 7.6 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 103.0× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 35% of the time, against a long-run median of 116.5× measured over 7.6 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

P/E 103.0× vs a 116.5× long-run median P/E, weekly (left axis); earnings per share, trailing twelve months, weekly (right axis). 7.6-year window; loss-period spikes above 350× shown pinned at the top. The eps (ttm) bars are red where the reading is lower than the quarter before.
near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 35% of the time
P/EMedianEPS (TTM) (quarterly)
375.9×₹6.9281.9×₹5.2188.0×₹3.494.0×₹1.70.0×₹0.0×103.40×₹6Feb 19Jan 21Dec 22Nov 24Sep 26
375.9×₹6.9281.9×₹5.2188.0×₹3.494.0×₹1.70.0×₹0.0×103.40×₹6Feb 19Dec 22Sep 26
PEG 13.85 PEG ratio per quarter — the P/E divided by the earnings-growth rate. The dashed line marks 1.0: below it the growth is cheap against the multiple, above it the price already prices the growth in. Last 20 quarters; values above 6 pinned at the top.
above 1.0, the multiple already banks the growth
PEGPEG = 1.0
6.4×5.0×3.5×2.0×0.6××6.00×Q2 FY22Q2 FY23Q3 FY24Q4 FY25Q1 FY27
6.4×5.0×3.5×2.0×0.6××6.00×Q2 FY22Q3 FY24Q1 FY27
P/E
103.0×
35th percentile of 8y
PEG
n/m
not derivable — 3-year earnings growth unavailable

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +0.2% against a −1.8% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the −15.6%/yr price move, ~+1.8%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−17.4 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

13 · Stage: Deteriorating

Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Adani Total Gas Ltd reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — profit and EPS growth are shrinking (profit growth −2.5% latest against +23.7% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE holding at 14.7%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Growth, year by year: revenue +17.9% in FY26, profit +0.3% Year-over-year growth per fiscal year, %: revenue (left axis); net profit and EPS (right axis — profit growth swings far wider). Zero line drawn.
Revenue YoYProfit YoYEPS YoY
86%104%60%58%35%12%9.1%−34%−17%−80%%%17.9%0.3%FY18FY22FY26
86%104%60%58%35%12%9.1%−34%−17%−80%%%17.9%0.3%FY18FY22FY26
Three growth curves, twelve quarters Year-on-year growth of trailing-twelve-month revenue (left axis), profit and EPS (right axis — they swing far wider), % at each quarter-end. A missing point means that reading is not held for the quarter.
the trajectory the stage is read from · revenue stabilising, profit stabilising
RevenueProfitEPS
21%26%16%16%11%6.3%5.9%−3.8%0.8%−14%%%19.8%−2.5%−2.4%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
21%26%16%16%11%6.3%5.9%−3.8%0.8%−14%%%19.8%−2.5%−2.4%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
ROCE Trailing-twelve-month operating profit (before interest and tax) as a share of average capital employed — total assets minus current liabilities, the standard textbook basis, %.
the return curve, computed quarterly
ROCE
27%24%20%17%14%%14.7%Sep 23Mar 24Dec 24Sep 25Jun 26
27%24%20%17%14%%14.7%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
Revenue growth
Steady high
latest +19.8% · span +2.2% to +19.8%
Profit growth
Flat
latest −2.5% · span −11.1% to +23.7%
EPS growth
Flat
latest −2.4% · span −11.0% to +23.4%
ROCE
Stuck low
latest 14.7% · span 14.7%–26.1%

🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.

Compound annual growth rate (%) Compound annual growth rate over each window, %. Revenue, profit and EPS from fiscal-year figures; share price is the price CAGR over the same spans. A dash = that window is not held, or the base was a loss.
1yr3yr5yr10yr
Revenue+17.9%+10.4%+28.3%
Profit+0.3%+6.3%+7.2%
EPS+0.2%+6.2%+7.2%
Share price−1.8%−2.7%−15.6%
Revenue YoY (Jun 26)
+27.2%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Profit YoY (Jun 26)
−13.9%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Revenue 10y
20.0%
long-run compound pace
14 · 4-Factor Sector Score

4-Factor Sector Score

46.8/100 — rank 4 of 7 in Gas Distribution · 87% evidence confidence

Adani Total Gas Ltd scores 46.8 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in Gas Distribution, ranking 4. Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is -2.3%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 17.4 + 11.3 + 3.5 + 14.6 = 46.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

15 · Said versus delivered

Said versus delivered

What Adani Total Gas Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Next-year EBITDA outlook no longer reconciled · 22 July 2026. In Apr 2026, management explicitly guided around INR 1,500 crores of EBITDA for the next financial year and said EBITDA growth would track volume growth. In Jul 2026, management described compressed margins caused by market-priced gas and declining APM allocation, while offering no reaffirmation of that target or timing for recovery. Although it attributed the pressure to sourcing conditions, the change leaves the earlier earnings model materially unreconciled.

Gas sourcing disclosures are materially unreconciled · 22 July 2026. In Apr 2026, management said 85% of CNG volumes were covered by APM, HPHT, WG and contracts, with approximately 16% purchased spot, and described the portfolio as diversified enough to manage the crisis. In Jul 2026, management reported domestic APM and NWG allocation of around 40% and spot volumes of around 50% after curtailment. Management attributed the change to withdrawal of the pool mechanism and curtailment, but did not reconcile the different bases or explain whether the earlier protected-supply profile remained, creating a materially different margin and supply-risk assumption.

Reversal on Gas Depletion Outlook · 23 January 2026. In the October 2025 call, management explicitly prepared investors for natural depletion of gas fields and a continued moderation of APM allocation. However, in the January 2026 call, they contradicted this trend by stating APM allocation increased and that they have not seen significant depletion. Earlier call (Oct 2025): “There will be natural depletion also as we keep drawing more gases... further moderation down of APM allocation in the first half... The combined allocation was 70%. This time it is 59% in the first half.” Later call (Jan 2026): “APM allocation has increased slightly, which is good... We have not seen a significant depletion in domestic gas. The expected reduction in APM and increase in new well gas hasn”.

Shift in Propane Competition Narrative · 23 January 2026. During the October 2025 call, management downplayed the threat of propane as an alternate fuel, claiming no compelling reason to switch and citing strong natural gas acceptance. In the January 2026 call, they reversed this stance, admitting that moderate propane/LPG prices put pressure on volumes (contributing to PNG growth slowing to 3%). Earlier call (Oct 2025): “Currently we are not seeing that compelling reason of immediately looking at supplying propane... growth is suggesting that still natural gas is being accepted.” Later call (Jan 2026): “Propane and LPG prices were very moderate this quarter, which put pressure on our volume.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

16 · Related companies · Gas Distribution
CompanyScorePrice stageGrowth & earnings/35Capital efficiency/25Valuation/20Relative strength/20
1Petronet LNG LtdPETRONET 73.9/100Favorable setup100% evidence BREAKING OUT 22.8/35 Revenue -24.8% · PAT 13.4% · OPM change 18 pp 100% evidence 20.3/25 ROCE 22.6% · OPM 28% 100% evidence 13.5/20 P/E 10.2× · PEG 1.3 100% evidence 17.3/20 RS sector 7.8% · RS bench 4% · 1Y 5.1%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 22.8 + 20.3 + 13.5 + 17.3 = 73.9 · Decision use: Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.
2GAIL (India) LtdGAIL 55.0/100Mixed-positive evidence100% evidence BREAKING OUT 16.8/35 Revenue 3.5% · PAT -15.4% · OPM change 7 pp 100% evidence 10.1/25 ROCE 9.7% · OPM 17% 100% evidence 9.2/20 P/E 11.6× · PEG 1.79 100% evidence 18.9/20 RS sector 8.3% · RS bench 4.4% · 1Y -0.2%5 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 16.8 + 10.1 + 9.2 + 18.9 = 55 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 4.4%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.
3Indraprastha Gas LtdIGL 47.6/100Mixed-negative evidence100% evidence ASLEEP 12.7/35 Revenue 9.9% · PAT -18.4% · OPM change -7 pp 100% evidence 12.5/25 ROCE 17.5% · OPM 6% 100% evidence 15.5/20 P/E 15.6× · PEG 1.26 100% evidence 6.9/20 RS sector -8% · RS bench -11.6% · 1Y -28.7%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 12.7 + 12.5 + 15.5 + 6.9 = 47.6 · Decision use: Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity.
4Adani Total Gas Ltdthis pageATGL 46.8/100Mixed-negative evidence87% evidence ASLEEP 17.4/35 Revenue 19.8% · PAT -2.5% · OPM change -6 pp 100% evidence 11.3/25 ROCE 15.3% · OPM 15% 100% evidence 3.5/20 P/E 103× · PEG 8.42 65% evidence 14.6/20 RS sector 10.5% · RS bench -2.3% · 1Y 0.7%3 of 11 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 17.4 + 11.3 + 3.5 + 14.6 = 46.8 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is -2.3%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.
5Gujarat Gas LtdGUJGASLTD 44.0/100Mixed-negative evidence83% evidence 17.3/35 Revenue 3.7% · PAT -10.6% · OPM change 0 pp 83% evidence 14.8/25 ROCE 18.5% · OPM 11% 95% evidence 11.4/20 P/E 18.6× · PEG — 50% evidence 0.5/20 RS sector -12.2% · RS bench -12.9% · 1Y -18.7%0 of 1 week ahead to 2026-06-28 100% evidence
Exact sum: 17.3 + 14.8 + 11.4 + 0.5 = 44 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
6Gujarat State Petronet LtdGSPL 39.5/100Mixed-negative evidence73% evidence 13.1/35 Revenue -7.5% · PAT -18.6% · OPM change 3 pp 56% evidence 9.8/25 ROCE 15.2% · OPM 16% 75% evidence 10.6/20 P/E 14.4× · PEG 1.27 100% evidence 6.0/20 RS sector -4.7% · RS bench -16.3% · 1Y -21.8%2 of 12 weeks ahead to 2026-03-29 70% evidence
Exact sum: 13.1 + 9.8 + 10.6 + 6 = 39.5 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
7Mahanagar Gas LtdMGL 38.9/100Mixed-negative evidence94% evidence TURNING 7.7/35 Revenue 11.1% · PAT -33.4% · OPM change -10 pp 100% evidence 12.6/25 ROCE 17% · OPM 14% 100% evidence 11.7/20 P/E 15× · PEG 0.3 100% evidence 6.9/20 RS sector -5.6% · RS bench -3.4% · 1Y -15.4%1 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 7.7 + 12.6 + 11.7 + 6.9 = 38.9 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

Missing observations are not scored as bad. Their missing weight lowers confidence and pulls the final score toward neutral. PEG is not shown when the ratio cannot mean anything: the company must be making a profit, its price-to-earnings must be positive, and its three-year earnings growth must fall between 5% and 60%. Dividing a price multiple by a loss, or by growth measured off a tiny base, produces a number that looks precise and tells you nothing. Under relative strength, one mark per week shows the last 12 weeks: a mark is filled where the company led NIFTY 500 by 5% or more over the 13 weeks ending that week, which is the same test used everywhere on this site. Price stage places the company on the same six-step curve the sector itself is placed on — basing, turning, breaking out, leader, fading, asleep — read from how many weeks running it has led NIFTY 500 and whether that lead is widening or shrinking. It describes where the PRICE stands, not the earnings trajectory and not a recommendation, and it is left blank for a company whose weekly history is too short or too stale to read.

17 · Frequently asked questions

Frequently asked questions

What is Adani Total Gas Ltd's share price today?

Adani Total Gas Ltd trades at ₹595, −1.8% over the past year. The company is valued at ₹65,417 Cr. The stock sits at 39% of its 52-week range of ₹483–₹773, −6.8% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a confirmed uptrend, 16 weeks in. — as of 11 September 2026.

What were Adani Total Gas Ltd's latest quarterly results?

Adani Total Gas Ltd reported revenue of ₹1,754 Cr and net profit of ₹142 Cr for the Jun 26 quarter. Revenue rose 27.2% and profit fell 13.9% year on year. Earnings per share were ₹1.29. The operating margin was 15.0%, 6.0 pp lower than a year earlier. — as of 11 September 2026.

What is Adani Total Gas Ltd's revenue?

Adani Total Gas Ltd reported revenue of ₹1,754 Cr in the Jun 26 quarter, +27.2% year on year. For the full FY26 fiscal year, revenue was ₹5,894 Cr (+17.9%). Over the last 8 years revenue compounded at 20.0% a year. — as of 11 September 2026.

What is Adani Total Gas Ltd's profit?

Adani Total Gas Ltd earned ₹142 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −13.9% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹656 Cr. The operating margin ran 15.0% in the latest quarter. — as of 11 September 2026.

What is Adani Total Gas Ltd's market cap?

Adani Total Gas Ltd's market capitalisation is ₹65,417 Cr at a share price of ₹595. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 11 September 2026.

What is Adani Total Gas Ltd's P/E ratio?

Adani Total Gas Ltd trades at a P/E of 103.0×, at the 35th percentile of its own 8-year range, against a long-run median of 116.5×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 11 September 2026.

Does Adani Total Gas Ltd pay a dividend?

Yes — Adani Total Gas Ltd's dividend payout was 4% of profit in FY26, and it recorded a payout in 8 of its last 9 reported fiscal years. This page holds the payout ratio, not a per-share amount. — as of 11 September 2026.

Is Adani Total Gas Ltd overvalued?

On its own history, Adani Total Gas Ltd looks cheap: its P/E of 103.0× has been cheaper only 35% of the time in 8 years (long-run median 116.5×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. — as of 11 September 2026.

Is Adani Total Gas Ltd growing?

Not right now — Adani Total Gas Ltd's latest numbers are shrinking: latest-quarter revenue +27.2% year on year, profit −13.9%, and the margin −6.0 pp at 15.0%. The 8-year compound rates are 20.0% (revenue) and 19.1% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: deteriorating — as of 11 September 2026.

How is Adani Total Gas Ltd performing?

Adani Total Gas Ltd is in a confirmed uptrend, 16 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 27.2% and profit fell 13.9% year on year. Against the NIFTY 500 it has been behind on a trailing-13-week view for 9 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 11 September 2026.

What stage is Adani Total Gas Ltd in?

Deteriorating — profit and EPS growth are shrinking (profit growth −2.5% latest against +23.7% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE holding at 14.7%. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +19.8% latest, profit growth −2.5% latest, eps growth −2.4% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 11 September 2026.

Is Adani Total Gas Ltd in an uptrend?

Yes — the price is in a confirmed uptrend (week 16 of stage 2), trading −6.8% versus its 200-day average and at 39% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 11 September 2026.

Is Adani Total Gas Ltd beating the market?

Not lately — on a trailing-13-week view Adani Total Gas Ltd is currently behind the NIFTY 500 (9 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-10), the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 7.8 years the stock moved +644% against the NIFTY 500's +156% — ahead of the index over the full window. — as of 11 September 2026.

Will Adani Total Gas Ltd's share price go up?

This page publishes no price forecast for Adani Total Gas Ltd. What it measures instead: the share price is ₹595, the price is in a confirmed uptrend 16 weeks in. Its P/E of 103.0× sits at the 35th percentile of its own 8-year range. — as of 11 September 2026.

Who owns Adani Total Gas Ltd?

Promoters hold 74.8% of Adani Total Gas Ltd, foreign institutions 12.8%, domestic institutions 6.3% and the public 6.1% (latest quarter). No holder moved a full point over the last two years — the register is quiet. — as of 11 September 2026.

Does Adani Total Gas Ltd have too much debt?

It is moderate — Adani Total Gas Ltd's debt-to-equity is 0.46, and operating profit covers the interest bill 9×. FY26 borrowings were ₹2,255 Cr against equity of ₹4,865 Cr. Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind — as of 11 September 2026.

What is Adani Total Gas Ltd's capex?

Adani Total Gas Ltd spent ₹2,966 Cr on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY26 alone that was ₹1,035 Cr, with ₹2,001 Cr in capital work-in-progress — capacity paid for but not yet earning. — as of 11 September 2026.

What is Adani Total Gas Ltd's cash flow?

Adani Total Gas Ltd generated ₹1,149 Cr of operating cash flow in FY26 and ₹114 Cr of free cash flow after ₹1,035 Cr of capital spending. Reported profit that year was ₹656 Cr, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. Cash-flow resolution for India is annual. — as of 11 September 2026.

Is Adani Total Gas Ltd's profit real cash?

Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 155% of Adani Total Gas Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY26, operating cash was ₹1,149 Cr against reported profit of ₹656 Cr. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 11 September 2026.

Where is Adani Total Gas Ltd in its business cycle?

Adani Total Gas Ltd's FY26 operating margin was 20.0%, against a 9-year band of 20.0%–42.0%: the low end of its own band, which is where recoveries start when they come. The latest quarter ran 15.0%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 11 September 2026.

What could break the Adani Total Gas Ltd story?

The sharpest disagreement: the P/E sits at the 35th percentile of its own range, but the engine is deteriorating — cheap for a reason until the quarters turn. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 11 September 2026.

Is Adani Total Gas Ltd a stock worth studying right now?

This is not investment advice. The machine read: Adani Total Gas Ltd is cheap for a reason. The P/E sits at the 35th percentile of its own range, and the quarters are still getting worse. The sharpest open question: whether the quarters turn before the discount closes. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 11 September 2026.

Sector Alpha — machine-written from the numbers · Data as of 2026-09-11. Every chart on this page is drawn by deterministic code from the raw series — no forecasts, no price opinions, and nothing here is investment advice.

Not SEBI Registered !! Not Investment advice !!

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