The AES Corporation
AESThe AES Corporation is coiled. The quarters are improving, yet the P/E sits at the 20th percentile of its own 3-year range — the business is moving before the market.
The sharpest disagreement: the price moved +11.0% in a year while annual EPS moved −46.6% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings.
The price is in a confirmed uptrend (27 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 20th percentile of its own 3-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read improving, and 759% of the last 2 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
The AES Corporation trades at $14.7, in a confirmed uptrend and 27 weeks into that stage. That is +1.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 41% of a 52-week range of $13 to $17. On relative strength it is currently behind the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view (17 weeks and counting).
Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 27 of stage 2. At $14.7 it trades +1.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 41% of its 52-week range ($13–$17).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +19% while the S&P 500 moved +263% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (17 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-04-10) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.
The AES Corporation trades at 7.7× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 20% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 9.1×, measured across 2.6 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/E of 7.7× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 20% of the time, against a long-run median of 9.1× measured over 2.6 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −46.6% against a +11.0% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.
Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.
Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
The AES Corporation reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 12 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.
Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.
One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.
Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.
Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −0.4% | −1.0% | — | — |
| Profit | −80.8% | — | — | — |
| EPS | −46.6% | — | — | — |
| Stock price | +11.0% | −9.2% | −9.8% | +1.8% |
4-Factor Sector Score
49.6/100 — rank 3 of 6 in Utilities - Diversified · 64% evidence confidence
The AES Corporation scores 49.6 out of 100 against the 6 companies it is compared with in Utilities - Diversified, ranking 3. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 20.9 + 7.2 + 11.5 + 10 = 49.6. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.
The AES Corporation reported $3.2 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +8.5% year on year. That is the 3rd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 2.4% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $12.2 B. The last four reported quarters add to $12.5 B.
FY25 revenue came in at $12.2 B (−0.4% on the year), capping 4 years at 2.4% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $3.2 B, +8.5% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +3.0% growth against the decade's 2.4% — the current year is running in line with its own long-run rate.
Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +3.0% over the last 4 quarters against −0.1%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating.
Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.
The AES Corporation's operating margin is 18.2% in the Mar 26 quarter, +5.9 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 16.1% to 22.8%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
The latest quarter's operating margin is 18.2%, +5.9 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 16.1%–22.8%.
Why the margin moved: operating margin went +5.9 pp year on year while gross margin went +5.1 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
The AES Corporation posted a net loss of $0.01 B in the Mar 26 quarter. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.1 B. That loss is 0.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost $0.03 B. 7 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.
Mar 26 profit was $−0.0 B, null year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.1 B (−80.8%).
Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.
Over the last 2 fiscal years 759% of The AES Corporation's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $4.3 B of operating cash against $0.1 B of profit. After $5.9 B of capital spending, $−1.6 B was left as free cash.
FY25: operating cash of $4.3 B against reported profit of $0.1 B, leaving free cash of $−1.6 B after $5.9 B of capital spending. Across the last 2 fiscal years the conversion rate is 759% of profit.
Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.
Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.
Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.
Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).
The AES Corporation does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $21.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 57.2% of FY25 revenue a year.
Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.
On the investment side: capital spending of $21.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.
The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.
Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.
The AES Corporation earns a ROE of 1% in FY25. That is up from a trough of −17% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −1.7 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 1.2% net margin on 0.24× asset turns.
FY25 ROE is 1%, recovered from a FY21 trough of −17% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.
🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 1.2% net margin × 0.24× asset turns × 4.34× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 1.2% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.
The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 3.3% − 5.0% = a −1.7 pp spread. The 5.0% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.
Dividend A dividend is cash paid out per share. Dividend per share is the declared amount for the period; the trailing twelve-month total is the four most recent quarters added together.
The AES Corporation paid $0.70 per share over the last four reported quarters, up 0.0% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $0.18 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $14.7 that is a trailing yield of 4.77%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.
The AES Corporation paid $0.70 per share across the last four reported quarters, most recently $0.18 for Mar 26. That is up 0.0% against the same quarter a year earlier. Against the current price of $14.7 the trailing twelve months work out to 4.77% — trailing dividends measured against today's price, not a forward estimate.
Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.
The AES Corporation carries total debt of $31.8 B against shareholder equity of $12.3 B as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 2.60. On the annual view that ratio went from 3.21 in FY21 to 2.56 in FY25. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.
Mar 26: total debt of $31.8 B against shareholder equity of $12.3 B — a debt-to-equity of 2.60. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 3.21 (FY21) to 2.56 (FY25). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.
Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.
3.2% of The AES Corporation's tradable float is currently sold short — some money is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 2.6 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.
The latest reading: 3.2% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 2.6 days to buy those positions back. Some money is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.
Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
The AES Corporation: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.
| Company | Score | Price stage | Growth & earnings/35 | Capital efficiency/25 | Valuation/20 | Relative strength/20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Unitil CorporationUTL | 57.5/100Mixed-positive evidence75% evidence | TURNING | 20.3/35 Revenue 19.5% · PAT 16.7% · OPM change -1.2 pp 83% evidence | 15.6/25 ROCE 3.4% · OPM 25.8% 76% evidence | 8.4/20 P/E 16.5× · PEG 2.11 65% evidence | 13.2/20 RS sector 4% · RS bench -4.7% · 1Y 7.9%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 20.3 + 15.6 + 8.4 + 13.2 = 57.5 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 2Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P.BIP | 53.0/100Thin evidence · provisional52% evidence | TURNING | 15.8/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 0.5 pp 45% evidence | 12.6/25 ROCE 1.4% · OPM 25.2% 76% evidence | 8.5/20 P/E 58.9× · PEG — 15% evidence | 16.1/20 RS sector 8.9% · RS bench -0.2% · 1Y 32.6%2 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 15.8 + 12.6 + 8.5 + 16.1 = 53 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 3The AES Corporationthis pageAES | 49.6/100Mixed-negative evidence64% evidence | BASING | 20.9/35 Revenue 3% · PAT 16.9% · OPM change 6 pp 62% evidence | 7.2/25 ROCE 1.4% · OPM 18.4% 76% evidence | 11.5/20 P/E 7.5× · PEG — 15% evidence | 10.0/20 RS sector 0.1% · RS bench -8.3% · 1Y 11.9%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 20.9 + 7.2 + 11.5 + 10 = 49.6 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 4Avista CorporationAVA | 47.3/100Mixed-negative evidence81% evidence | BASING | 14.3/35 Revenue -1.5% · PAT 10.2% · OPM change 3.2 pp 83% evidence | 14.2/25 ROCE 1.8% · OPM 23.5% 76% evidence | 13.7/20 P/E 16× · PEG 1.14 65% evidence | 5.1/20 RS sector -3.7% · RS bench -11.8% · 1Y 5.1%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 14.3 + 14.2 + 13.7 + 5.1 = 47.3 · Decision use: Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity. | ||||||
| 5Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.AQN | 32.5/100Adverse evidence71% evidence | BASING | 11.0/35 Revenue 7.2% · PAT -3.5% · OPM change -3 pp 83% evidence | 8.3/25 ROCE 1.4% · OPM 22.8% 76% evidence | 9.7/20 P/E 26.7× · PEG — 15% evidence | 3.5/20 RS sector -6.3% · RS bench -14.2% · 1Y 1.8%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 11 + 8.3 + 9.7 + 3.5 = 32.5 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 6SempraSRE | 27.5/100Adverse evidence81% evidence | BASING | 13.7/35 Revenue 1.6% · PAT -16.7% · OPM change 4.6 pp 83% evidence | 9.7/25 ROCE 1.2% · OPM 29.8% 76% evidence | 4.1/20 P/E 32.9× · PEG 3.45 65% evidence | 0.0/20 RS sector -6.5% · RS bench -14.4% · 1Y 6%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 13.7 + 9.7 + 4.1 + 0 = 27.5 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
Missing observations are not scored as bad. Their missing weight lowers confidence and pulls the final score toward neutral. PEG is not shown when the ratio cannot mean anything: the company must be making a profit, its price-to-earnings must be positive, and its three-year earnings growth must fall between 5% and 60%. Dividing a price multiple by a loss, or by growth measured off a tiny base, produces a number that looks precise and tells you nothing. Under relative strength, one mark per week shows the last 12 weeks: a mark is filled where the company led S&P 500 by 5% or more over the 13 weeks ending that week, which is the same test used everywhere on this site. Price stage places the company on the same six-step curve the sector itself is placed on — basing, turning, breaking out, leader, fading, asleep — read from how many weeks running it has led S&P 500 and whether that lead is widening or shrinking. It describes where the PRICE stands, not the earnings trajectory and not a recommendation, and it is left blank for a company whose weekly history is too short or too stale to read.
Frequently asked questions
What is The AES Corporation's stock price today?
The AES Corporation trades at $14.7, +11.0% over the past year. The company is valued at $10.0 B. The stock sits at 41% of its 52-week range of $13–$17, +1.0% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a confirmed uptrend, 27 weeks in. — as of 5 August 2026.
What were The AES Corporation's latest quarterly results?
The AES Corporation reported revenue of $3.2 B and a net loss of $0.0 B for the Mar 26 quarter. The operating margin was 18.2%, 5.9 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is The AES Corporation's revenue?
The AES Corporation reported revenue of $3.2 B in the Mar 26 quarter, +8.5% year on year. For the full FY25 fiscal year, revenue was $12.2 B (−0.4%). Over the last 4 years revenue compounded at 2.4% a year. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is The AES Corporation's profit?
The AES Corporation earned $−0.0 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.1 B. The operating margin ran 18.2% in the latest quarter. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is The AES Corporation's market cap?
The AES Corporation's market capitalisation is $10.0 B at a stock price of $14.7. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is The AES Corporation's P/E ratio?
The AES Corporation trades at a P/E of 7.7×, at the 20th percentile of its own 3-year range, against a long-run median of 9.1×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 5 August 2026.
Does The AES Corporation pay a dividend?
Yes — The AES Corporation declared $0.18 per share for Mar 26, and $0.70 per share across the last four reported quarters. The latest quarter is down 0.0% on the same quarter a year earlier. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is The AES Corporation's dividend per share?
The AES Corporation's most recently declared dividend is $0.18 per share for Mar 26, giving $0.70 per share over the trailing twelve months. Each figure is the amount declared for that quarter as reported, added across four quarters for the trailing total. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is The AES Corporation's dividend yield?
The AES Corporation's trailing dividend yield is 4.77%: $0.70 declared per share across the last four reported quarters, against a share price of $14.7. Each quarter’s figure is the amount declared for that quarter as reported, added across four quarters and divided by the latest close. — as of 5 August 2026.
Is The AES Corporation overvalued?
On its own history, The AES Corporation looks cheap against its own history: its P/E of 7.7× has been cheaper only 20% of the time in 3 years (long-run median 9.1×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. — as of 5 August 2026.
How is The AES Corporation performing?
The AES Corporation is in a confirmed uptrend, 27 weeks in. Against the S&P 500 it has been behind on a trailing-13-week view for 17 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 5 August 2026.
Is The AES Corporation in an uptrend?
Yes — the price is in a confirmed uptrend (week 27 of stage 2), trading +1.0% versus its 200-day average and at 41% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 5 August 2026.
Is The AES Corporation beating the market?
Not lately — on a trailing-13-week view The AES Corporation is currently behind the S&P 500 (17 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-04-10), the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +19% against the S&P 500's +263% — behind the index over the full window. — as of 5 August 2026.
Will The AES Corporation's stock price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for The AES Corporation. What it measures instead: the stock price is $14.7, the price is in a confirmed uptrend 27 weeks in. Its P/E of 7.7× sits at the 20th percentile of its own 3-year range. — as of 5 August 2026.
Is the market betting against The AES Corporation?
Somewhat — short interest is 3.2% of The AES Corporation's tradable float, about 2.6 days to cover at typical volumes. A moderate reading: some money is positioned against it. With no quarter-by-quarter holder register here, short interest is the cleanest crowd read we hold — as of 5 August 2026.
Does The AES Corporation have too much debt?
It carries real leverage — The AES Corporation's debt-to-equity is 2.60. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so the latest reading is the cleanest hold. Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind — as of 5 August 2026.
What is The AES Corporation's capex?
The AES Corporation spent $21.0 B on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY25 alone that was $5.9 B. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is The AES Corporation's cash flow?
The AES Corporation generated $4.3 B of operating cash flow in FY25 and $−1.6 B of free cash flow after $5.9 B of capital spending. Reported profit that year was $0.1 B, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. — as of 5 August 2026.
Is The AES Corporation's profit real cash?
Yes — over the last 2 fiscal years, 759% of The AES Corporation's reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY25, operating cash was $4.3 B against reported profit of $0.1 B. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 5 August 2026.
Where is The AES Corporation in its business cycle?
The AES Corporation's FY25 operating margin was 16.1%, against a 5-year band of 16.1%–22.8%: the low end of its own band, which is where recoveries start when they come. The latest quarter ran 18.2%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 5 August 2026.
What could break the The AES Corporation story?
The sharpest disagreement: the price moved +11.0% in a year while annual EPS moved −46.6% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 5 August 2026.
Is The AES Corporation a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: The AES Corporation is coiled. The quarters are improving, yet the P/E sits at the 20th percentile of its own 3-year range — the business is moving before the market. The sharpest open question: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 5 August 2026.