Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd trades at ₹487, in a confirmed uptrend and 16 weeks into that stage. That is +26.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 100% of a 52-week range of ₹299 to ₹487. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 10 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 16 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹487 it trades +26.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 100% of its 52-week range (₹299–₹487).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +323% while the NIFTY 500 moved +267% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 10 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 19 July 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: Not stated in the research file. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 19 July 2026.

Our read, 19 July 2026. A capacity-coiled specialty chemicals and fertilizers company where two near-complete plants sit idle by design — management is waiting for raw material costs to normalize before committing new capacity to a market that cannot yet absorb it at economic margins.

From the numbers. PE at the 77th percentile on trailing basis, normalized to the 66th percentile per cycle_normalized — a 15-point gap when OPM reverts to mid-cycle. Segment is BREAKOUT_FROM_COMPRESSION with NEAR_PEAK cycle position…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 16 — above its 200-day line, relative strength rising.

From the research. A capacity-coiled specialty chemicals and fertilizers company where two near-complete plants sit idle by design — management is waiting for raw material costs to normalize before committing new capacity to a market that…

🚨 Where they disagree. PE at the 77th percentile on trailing basis, normalized to the 66th percentile per cycle_normalized — a 15-point gap when OPM reverts to mid-cycle. Segment is BREAKOUT_FROM_COMPRESSION with NEAR_PEAK cycle position, indicating the re-rating has partially already occurred. OPM at the 29th percentile of own 9.5-year history shows margins have room to recover toward the 11.8% normalized level — conditional on raw material normalization. The EMERGING_OPPORTUNITY matrix label is forward-looking: it anticipates Unit 5/6 revenue addition and margin recovery, not the current commodity-depressed state.

What is proven. A capacity-coiled specialty chemicals and fertilizers company where two near-complete plants sit idle by design — management is waiting for raw material costs to normalize before committing new capacity to a market that cannot yet absorb it at economic margins.

What is not proven yet. If ammonia prices remain above Rs 75 per kg through Q3 FY27 with no finished-goods price recovery in H-Acid or SSP fertilizer, and Units 5 and 6 remain uncommissioned, this indicates the raw material shock is structural — the commissioning rationale is permanently impaired and the FY29 Rs 2500 Cr target has no credible pathway while the Rs 350 Cr Meghnagar capex draws down cash.

🚨 What would change our mind. If ammonia prices remain above Rs 75 per kg through Q3 FY27 with no finished-goods price recovery in H-Acid or SSP fertilizer, and Units 5 and 6 remain uncommissioned, this indicates the raw material shock is structural — the commissioning rationale is permanently impaired and the FY29 Rs 2500 Cr target has no credible pathway while the Rs 350 Cr Meghnagar capex draws down cash.

🚨 Layer 1 read, 19 July 2026 — DROP. Cheap on a deliberate pause, not a broken engine — two finished plants idle waiting for ammonia to fall. The Mar-2026 -23.5% PAT and CONTRACTION flag look like a value-trap, but the weakness is self-imposed: management halted sales and skipped the Kharif season to protect margin, and is holding Units 5/6 (90-95% built, power-connected) idle until ammonia drops below Rs 75/kg. Cash quality is intact — OCF +168% with strong conversion, and negative FCF is purely the capacity capex (CWIP +176%). It stays a low-conviction P2 because the trigger is an external commodity price outside the company's control and the FY27 guide was already cut with a ~12-month commissioning slip.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. Consuming the Timeline's kill-switch: if ammonia stays above Rs 75/kg through Q3 FY27 with no H-Acid/SSP price recovery AND Units 5/6 remain uncommissioned, the pause becomes a structural impairment and this flips to DROP; conversely, Unit 5/6 commissioning with any commercial volume plus OPM recovering above 10.5% would confirm the coiled-capacity thesis and lift it toward P1.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: OCF/PAT 1.46x in FY26 signals excellent earnings quality The research reads it further: FY26 OCF recovery follows two years of compression (FY24 0.43x, FY25 0.64x) driven by WC absorption during the capacity build. FY26's 1.46x reflects CCC improvement from 81 to 53 days as inventory days fell — a managed WC release from the deliberate Q4 sales halt, not a structural quality improvement. The 3-year aggregate OCF/PAT of 0.94x per cash_decomposition is the more representative long-run figure.

Sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd reported ₹280 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +9.8% year on year. Over 9 years it has compounded at 13.8% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹977 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,002 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹977 Cr (+21.2% on the year), capping 9 years at 13.8% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹280 Cr, +9.8% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +17.2% growth against the decade's 13.8% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +15.6% over the last 4 quarters against +16.0%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +7.5% vs +30.9%/yr — rolling over.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹218 Cr and profit ₹13 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹280 Cr and profit ₹23 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd's operating margin is 11.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 10 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 8.0% to 17.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 11.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 10 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 8.0%–17.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.0 pp year on year while gross margin went −1.1 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹218 Cr and profit ₹13 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹280 Cr and profit ₹23 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd earned ₹23.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +9.5% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹70.0 Cr. The 9-year compound rate is 9.9%. That is 8.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹21.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹23.0 Cr, +9.5% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹70.0 Cr (+18.6%), and the 9-year compound rate is 9.9%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +9.8% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +9.3% vs revenue +17.2%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹218 Cr and profit ₹13 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹280 Cr and profit ₹23 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 94% of Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹102 Cr of operating cash against ₹70.0 Cr of profit. After ₹115 Cr of capital spending, ₹−13.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹102 Cr against reported profit of ₹70.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−13.0 Cr after ₹115 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 94% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 94%: the cash cycle tightened 36 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 3.1× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 53 days in FY26, down from 89 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹209 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹977 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹2.7 Cr, so roughly ₹142 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

Why this happened. H-Acid prices moved from Rs 525-530 per kg to Rs 750 per kg; Vinyl Sulfone from Rs 240 per kg to Rs 350 per kg (claim C028). Chemical segment OPM has outperformed fertilizer OPM because finished-goods pricing is more elastic. Backward integration into sulfuric acid provides relative cost insulation vs standalone dye producers who must buy acid at market.

Why this happened. Management guided Rs 500-700 Cr incremental annual revenue from Units 5 (dyes) and 6 (NPK, phosphoric acid, sulfuric acid complex) once commissioned (claim C025). Plants are 90-95% complete and electricity-connected as of March 2026 (claim C026). The hold is a pricing decision: management will not run at ammonia above Rs 100 per kg when finished-goods markets have not reset. When input costs normalize, utilization can ramp within one quarter given no infrastructure barrier remains.

FY26: debtors at 67 days, inventory at 77 days — roughly 2.5 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 53 days, tighter than FY21's 89.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 77 days to sell; customers pay about 67 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 91 days — netting out to the 53-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹977 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹2.7 Cr — so the 53-day loop keeps roughly ₹142 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹209 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹68.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹149 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.⚠ unverified

Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd earns a ROCE of 13% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 9% in FY24. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −1.4 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses.

FY26 ROCE is 13%, recovered from a FY24 trough of 9% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 7.2% net margin × 1.01× asset turns × 1.59× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 11.6% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 10.6% − 12.0% = a −1.4 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.⚠ unverified

Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd carries total debt of ₹132 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹610 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.22 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.24 in FY22 to 0.22 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Why this happened. Mar 2026 balance sheet shows borrowings Rs 130 Cr vs cash and investments Rs 141 Cr (claims C009, C015). Rs 140 Cr in AAA-rated bonds plus Rs 30 Cr from promoter preferential allotment covers Rs 170 Cr of the Rs 350 Cr Meghnagar capex commitment. Remaining Rs 180 Cr from internal accruals, with optional 25-30% term loan as flexibility buffer (claim C015). CWIP of Rs 149 Cr at Mar 2026 reflects active build that will begin earning once commissioned.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹132 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹610 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.22. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.24 (FY22) to 0.22 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 1.1 points of Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 0.5% of the company. Promoters moved +0.8 points over the same window, to 69.4%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −1.1 points over 8 quarters to 0.5%; Promoters: +0.8 points over 8 quarters to 69.4%; Domestic institutions: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 0.0%.

🚨 Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (−1.1 points), absorbed on the other side by promoters (+0.8 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd trades at 21.8× P/E, about the priciest it has ever traded. Its long-run median P/E is 15.2×, measured across 8.6 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 21.8× is about the priciest it has ever traded, against a long-run median of 15.2× measured over 8.6 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +19.6% against a +46.9% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +16.3%/yr price move, ~+11.4%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+4.9 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources do not share enough overlapping reported history to be compared. A figure nobody could check is not used to price growth — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 20 July 2026 price, Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 11.5% a year. Profit itself has compounded 9.9% a year over the past 9 years. Today the market pays 21.8× P/E, the 98th percentile of its own 9-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is close to what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 20 July 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: profit growth has eased from +59.5% at its peak to +7.5% but is still expanding, ROCE holding at 13.0%. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

59.0/100 — rank 2 of 4 in Chemicals - Others · 84% evidence confidence

Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd scores 59.0 out of 100 against the 4 companies it is compared with in Chemicals - Others, ranking 2. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 18.1 + 12.8 + 8.1 + 20 = 59. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

FY27 Revenue Guidance Reduced · 13 August 2026. In February 2026, management said its outlook for the following year, FY27, remained at Rs. 1,500 crores and should not be difficult to achieve. In August 2026, management instead described FY27 visibility at 1,250 crores, with a possible increase only to 1,300-1,400 crores, implying a roughly 13%-17% reduction from the earlier outlook. The latest call did not explicitly acknowledge or reconcile this guidance change.

🚨 Unit 6 Trial Timeline and Delay Rationale Changed · 13 August 2026. In February 2026, management expected Unit 6 trials by March, subject to receiving the electricity connection by February. By August 2026, trials had moved to the end of August or September, a material delay of roughly five to six months. Although the latest call cited raw-material uncertainty as a reason for holding back the unit, management did not reconcile this changed gating factor with the prior electricity-connection milestone or explain why the March target was missed.

FY27 Revenue Guidance Reduction · 19 May 2026. In the Feb 2026 call, management maintained a firm revenue target of Rs 1,500 crores for the upcoming fiscal year, asserting it would not be a problem. By the May 2026 call, management reduced this visibility to between Rs 1,250 and 1,300 crores because the company decided to skip the entire Kharif season due to raw material volatility.

🚨 Commissioning Timeline and Strategy Pivot · 19 May 2026. During the Feb 2026 call, management anticipated beginning trial production at Units 5 and 6 in March 2026, contingent only on the electricity connection. In the May 2026 call, they revealed that despite the electricity issue being resolved in early March, they have since decided to indefinitely delay the trials due to raw material pricing Haywire, intentionally missing the Kharif season.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions