KRBL Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

KRBL Ltd trades at ₹421, in a confirmed uptrend and 12 weeks into that stage. That is +13.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 89% of a 52-week range of ₹287 to ₹438. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 6 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 12 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹421 it trades +13.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 89% of its 52-week range (₹287–₹438).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +99% while the NIFTY 500 moved +267% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 6 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

KRBL Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 22 August 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: Not stated in the research file. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 22 August 2026.

Our read, 22 August 2026. India Gate is the branded basmati market leader trading at a trough valuation after two years of export disruption and margin compression, with EPS recovering from its FY25 low and domestic volumes compounding, undercut by a pattern of management narrative inconsistency.

From the numbers. The PE has been compressing monotonically at roughly 7% per year for nine years while EPS has been expanding 4.9% per year — a classic scissors pattern that leaves the current multiple at 12.3x against a 10-year median…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 12 — above its 200-day line, relative strength rising.

From the research. India Gate is the branded basmati market leader trading at a trough valuation after two years of export disruption and margin compression, with EPS recovering from its FY25 low and domestic volumes compounding, undercut…

🚨 Where they disagree. The PE has been compressing monotonically at roughly 7% per year for nine years while EPS has been expanding 4.9% per year — a classic scissors pattern that leaves the current multiple at 12.3x against a 10-year median of 14x. Price is 38% below its 10-year peak at stage 2 of the Weinstein framework with only 9 weeks in stage. The operating cycle is in mid-expansion: OPM troughed at 9.64% in Sep 2024 and has risen to 20.56% in Jun 2026, with mid-cycle normalization pointing to 18.8%. TTM EPS of Rs 33.13 is 58% above its own trough.

What is proven. India Gate is the branded basmati market leader trading at a trough valuation after two years of export disruption and margin compression, with EPS recovering from its FY25 low and domestic volumes compounding, undercut by a pattern of management narrative inconsistency.

What is not proven yet. If Q2 and Q3 FY27 export revenues remain below Rs 350 crore per quarter (vs Rs 244 crore in Q1 and Rs 485 crore year-ago), confirming that the West Asia distribution network is structurally damaged rather than temporarily disrupted — AND full-year FY27 EBITDA margin comes in below 15% — the earnings recovery thesis breaks. That would mean the trough valuation is justified, not a setup.

🚨 What would change our mind. If Q2 and Q3 FY27 export revenues remain below Rs 350 crore per quarter (vs Rs 244 crore in Q1 and Rs 485 crore year-ago), confirming that the West Asia distribution network is structurally damaged rather than temporarily disrupted — AND full-year FY27 EBITDA margin comes in below 15% — the earnings recovery thesis breaks. That would mean the trough valuation is justified, not a setup.

Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — KEEP. Rice profits turning up off a two-year low at 12x, price 38% below peak — but exports halving flatters it. The operating margin bottomed at 9.64% in September 2024 and reached 20.56% in June 2026, taking quarterly profit from Rs 151 Cr to Rs 261 Cr, a 73% rise. The engine behind it is physical and traceable — paddy costs settled and price increases held — and the balance sheet is clean, with borrowings cut from Rs 407 Cr to Rs 170 Cr and cash and investments at Rs 1,841 Cr. The reason this is a capped-conviction keep rather than a high-conviction one is that export revenue halved to Rs 244 Cr from Rs 485 Cr, which both flatters the margin (the lost volume was the low-margin leg) and is the whole reason the full-year top line is flat — and management, having called the shipping problem a matter…

What would change Layer 1’s mind. Q2 FY27 export revenue coming in below Rs 300 Cr — Q1 was Rs 244 Cr against Rs 485 Cr a year earlier — together with the full-year operating margin tracking under 15%. That pair would say the West Asia distribution network is structurally damaged rather than temporarily disrupted, in which case the 12.3x multiple is deserved and the trough is not a setup at all. The single sharpest early tell is the Saudi distributor appointment, still pending after eighteen months: another quarter without it…

Layer 2 read, 22 August 2026 — ADVANCE. Domestic growth keeps KRBL alive, but new rice capacity makes the recovery less clean. Exports fell to Rs 244 Cr from Rs 485 Cr, while domestic revenue excluding power rose 14% to Rs 1,221 Cr; the external fallback also shows sector profit rising in the latest quarter. The stress test adds a real warning L1 did not have: sector capex is up 47.3% and CWIP 36.28% with institutions absent, so a future supply glut can squeeze margins.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. A Q3 FY27 result where KRBL export revenue remains below Rs 350 Cr after sector shipping routes have normalised would flip ADVANCE to DROP because driver D1 would be structurally broken.

Layer 3 read, 22 August 2026 — BENCH. Bench: cheap shares and rising profit do not yet offset broken export timing and weak guidance discipline. West Asia shipping pressure is real: export revenue fell from Rs 485 Cr to Rs 244 Cr, aligning Timeline R1 with the targeted search. Management had called resolution a matter of days, but disruption persisted three months later. The profit recovery is also less durable than it looks because management calls the latest margin unsustainable.

What would change Layer 3’s mind. A verified clean explanation for the 6.26% Enforcement-held stake plus Q2 export revenue above Rs 350 Cr and no further guidance reversal would flip BENCH to DEPLOY.

What the company does. KRBL runs the India Gate brand covering 3.3 lakh retail outlets. The stock's trailing PE of 12.3x normalizes to 10.8x once margins return to mid-cycle, placing it at the 19th percentile of its own 10-year valuation history. The recovery depends on West Asia export normalization and delivery of the guided 17-18% EBITDA margin for FY27 — both of which management has given conflicting signals on across four consecutive calls.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: A trailing PE of 12.3x at the 36th percentile of 10-year history reads as modestly cheap but not extreme. The research reads it further: The earnings denominator is cyclically depressed: OPM troughed at 9.64% in Sep 2024 and is now recovering to 20.56% in Q1 FY27 — but mid-cycle normalized OPM is 18.8%, and the Q1 FY27 figure is itself above mid-cycle partly due to export-mix distortion and elevated other income. Normalizing to 18.8% OPM on the current revenue base gives normalized EPS of Rs 37.53 and a normalized PE of 10.8x (19th percentile of 10-year history).

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: PAT up 73% year-on-year signals a dramatic earnings acceleration. The research reads it further: Revenue fell 6% year-on-year in the same quarter. The PAT surge came from three compounding sources: (1) OPM rose from 12.16% to 20.56% because export volumes halved — removing lower-margin bulk-export revenue from the mix — and domestic realizations rose 11% year-on-year; (2) other income jumped from Rs 32 crore to Rs 64 crore, including Rs 18 crore in investment gains and Rs 9.5 crore in forex gains; (3) the denominator base (Q1 FY26) was the weakest quarter in the last two years (Rs 151 crore PAT). Management explicitly called Q1 margins unsustainable and guided FY27 full-year at 17-18% EBITDA.

Sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

KRBL Ltd reported ₹1,496 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, −5.6% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 6.1% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹6,098 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹6,010 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹6,098 Cr (+9.0% on the year), capping 10 years at 6.1% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹1,496 Cr, −5.6% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +1.8% growth against the decade's 6.1% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +0.5% over the last 4 quarters against +7.8%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +40.1% vs +24.6%/yr — accelerating.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹1,526 Cr and profit ₹155 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹1,496 Cr and profit ₹261 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

KRBL Ltd's operating margin is 21.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +9.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 12.0% to 24.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 21.0%, +9.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 12.0%–24.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +8.4 pp year on year while gross margin went +9.4 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹1,526 Cr and profit ₹155 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹1,496 Cr and profit ₹261 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

KRBL Ltd earned ₹261 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +72.8% year on year. It is the 6th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹648 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 8.3%. That is 17.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹151 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹261 Cr, +72.8% year on year — the 6th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹648 Cr (+36.1%), and the 10-year compound rate is 8.3%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed −5.6% and the margin +9.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +42.0% vs revenue +1.8%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹1,526 Cr and profit ₹155 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹1,496 Cr and profit ₹261 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 123% of KRBL Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹933 Cr of operating cash against ₹648 Cr of profit. After ₹495 Cr of capital spending, ₹438 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹933 Cr against reported profit of ₹648 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹438 Cr after ₹495 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 123% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 123%: the cash cycle tightened 38 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 2.7× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

KRBL Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 344 days in FY26, down from 382 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹683 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹6,098 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹16.7 Cr, so roughly ₹5,747 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 28 days, inventory at 329 days — roughly 10.8 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 344 days, tighter than FY21's 382.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 329 days to sell; customers pay about 28 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 12 days — netting out to the 344-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹6,098 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹16.7 Cr — so the 344-day loop keeps roughly ₹5,747 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹683 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹251 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹14.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

KRBL Ltd earns a ROCE of 15% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 12% in FY25. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +1.8 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 10.6% net margin on 0.92× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 15%, recovered from a FY25 trough of 12% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 10.6% net margin × 0.92× asset turns × 1.14× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 11.1% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 13.8% − 12.0% = a +1.8 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

KRBL Ltd carries total debt of ₹170 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹5,807 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.03 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.04 in FY22 to 0.03 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹170 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹5,807 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.03. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.04 (FY22) to 0.03 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions added 3.2 points of KRBL Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 7.3% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +0.3 points over the same window, to 0.7%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: +3.2 points over 8 quarters to 7.3%; Domestic institutions: +0.3 points over 8 quarters to 0.7%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 60.2%.

Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (+3.2 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

KRBL Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

KRBL Ltd trades at 12.7× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (41st percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 13.6×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 12.7× is mid-range by its own standards (41st percentile), against a long-run median of 13.6× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +36.1% against a −5.2% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +10.4%/yr price move, ~+6.4%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+4.0 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +4.9%/yr price move, ~+10.0%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−5.1 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 25 August 2026 price, KRBL Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 4.2% a year. Profit itself has compounded 8.3% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 12.7× P/E, the 41st percentile of its own 11-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is unremarkable against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is close to what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 25 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Improving Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

KRBL Ltd reads as improving on its fundamental arc. Improving — profit growth bottomed 7 quarters ago at −33.2% and has held its recovery at +40.1%, ROCE holding at 15.5%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: a sustained climb off the trough is the setup this page is built to catch — the question moves to what you pay for it.

4-Factor Sector Score

64.8/100 — rank 1 of 4 in FMCG - Rice · 91% evidence confidence

KRBL Ltd scores 64.8 out of 100 against the 4 companies it is compared with in FMCG - Rice, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 25.9 + 15.2 + 15.7 + 8 = 64.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What KRBL Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

🚨 Geopolitical Resolution Timeline Missed · 17 August 2026. In May 2026, management said it expected the Middle East tension to be resolved within days rather than persist for months. In Aug 2026, management was still describing partial reopening conditions and transshipment delays, without explaining why the earlier near-term resolution expectation failed.

🚨 Basmati Crop Severity Recast · 17 August 2026. The Feb 2026 and May 2026 calls characterized the 2025 crop as adequate overall, with localized weather effects and mixed quality. In Aug 2026, management described the same completed crop as difficult, citing the destruction of approximately 60,000 hectares of Basmati and a 20-25% decline in Punjab Basmati output; although management said it now had complete visibility, it did not reconcile this materially more severe assessment with its earlier characterization.

Domestic Market Share Narrative Changed · 17 August 2026. In May 2026, management stated that it had defended and extended market leadership across all channels. In Aug 2026, management acknowledged a roughly 2 percentage point year-on-year decline in traditional trade market share and said modern trade performance needed improvement, creating a materially less favorable competitive narrative without a reconciliation of the change.

Strategic Pivot From Margin to Volume-Led Growth · 18 May 2026. In the Feb 2026 call, management emphasized a margin-first strategy, explicitly stating they would sacrifice volume growth to avoid short-term gains at the expense of profitability. However, by the May 2026 call, the company reported a massive 16% surge in domestic volume while EBITDA margins fell to 15.5%, down from the 16.9% reported in the previous quarter, indicating a reversal of their stated discipline.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions