Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd trades at ₹1,285, in a confirmed uptrend and 44 weeks into that stage. That is −3.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 41% of a 52-week range of ₹1,023 to ₹1,666. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (9 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 44 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹1,285 it trades −3.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 41% of its 52-week range (₹1,023–₹1,666).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +360% while the NIFTY 500 moved +284% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (9 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-24) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 31 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: EARLY_EXPANSION. Still open: A Hormuz reopening + Russian sanctions rollback could compress effective tanker rates 20–35% in one quarter. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 19 July 2026.

Our read, 31 May 2026. GESHIP is India's largest diversified shipping operator at PE 6.9x and PB 1.19x, with $500 M net cash as deployable optionality and record FY26 PAT of ₹2,943 Cr — trading at a 21% discount to consolidated NAV ₹1,800/share.

From the numbers. EPS stepped from ₹35 (Jun 2025) to ₹73 (Mar 2026) — a 107% rise in 4 quarters. Despite this, PE compressed from 7.2x to 6.88x as price growth lagged earnings. The cycle is in early expansion: above trough (4.4x Jun…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 44 — below its 200-day line, relative strength falling.

From the research. GESHIP is India's largest diversified shipping operator at PE 6.9x and PB 1.19x, with $500 M net cash as deployable optionality and record FY26 PAT of ₹2,943 Cr — trading at a 21% discount to consolidated NAV…

🚨 Where they disagree. EPS stepped from ₹35 (Jun 2025) to ₹73 (Mar 2026) — a 107% rise in 4 quarters. Despite this, PE compressed from 7.2x to 6.88x as price growth lagged earnings. The cycle is in early expansion: above trough (4.4x Jun 2023) but below median (7.78x), with GOLDEN_SETUP EPS confirmed and FII buying ongoing. The dual tailwind of Hormuz disruption and structural Russian sanctions redirection is the current catalyst. Historical amplitude from trough to peak is ~7x (4.4 → 31.65); current cycle at 6.88x has meaningful re-rating runway IF FY27 earnings sustain above ₹180–200 EPS.

What is proven. GESHIP is India's largest diversified shipping operator at PE 6.9x and PB 1.19x, with $500 M net cash as deployable optionality and record FY26 PAT of ₹2,943 Cr — trading at a 21% discount to consolidated NAV ₹1,800/share.

What is not proven yet. A Hormuz reopening + Russian sanctions rollback could compress effective tanker rates 20–35% in one quarter.

Layer 1 read, 19 July 2026 — KEEP. Cheap shipper with a real 4-quarter earnings turn, but the fuel is a geopolitical rate shock and the record Q4 is one-time-inflated. GESHIP's earnings genuinely inflected off the Mar-2025 low — EPS rose 25.4 to 73.1 with operating margin 41% to 62% over four quarters while the PE stayed compressed at 6.9x, so the move is earnings-led not re-rating. The catch is quality and durability: management itself discloses 517cr of the record Q4 PAT is non-recurring vessel-sale and forex gains, and the whole spot-rate uplift rides the Hormuz closure and Russian-sanctions ton-mile expansion which R1 rates a HIGH-severity reversal risk. With 80% of FY27 days already locked the next two quarters are de-risked, so it stays a hold — but the caveats cap it below high conviction.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. Q1 FY27 consolidated PAT below 550cr stripped of vessel-sale and forex gains — the Timeline's own falsification line — which would signal rate normalisation is outpacing the structural ton-mile support and flip the still-expanding engine into a peak-cycle roll-over (P2 -> DROP).

Layer 2 read, 19 July 2026 — BENCH. Record earnings are peak-cycle, one-off-inflated and Hormuz-contingent — an extended cyclical in a late-cycle supply flood, benched not added. GESHIP's record FY26 PAT sits on a cycle peak — OPM 47.86% and an all-time-high price [sector_timeline C4/C5] — with 517cr of it non-recurring vessel-sale and forex gains and the whole rate uplift resting on the Strait of Hormuz staying blockaded, which sector qual itself calls a trade-only WATCH with a hard de-escalation stop. The capital cycle is the danger cell: industry fleet capex is flooding in (+137.5%, CWIP +89.98%) while institutions crowd in (this stock's FII went 24.6%->31%) — a supply build plus crowded ownership at the top. It stays a hold, not an exit, only because 80% of FY27 days are locked and $500M net cash cushions the downside.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. A confirmed STRUCTURAL rate reset that survives Hormuz de-escalation — i.e. spot/time-charter rates and forward base-case PAT hold WITHOUT the chokepoint premium, ex the 517cr one-offs — would flip BENCH back toward ADVANCE. Conversely, a Hormuz reopening triggering the 20-35% one-quarter rate compression would escalate this toward a CIO damage/exit review.

The test written in advance. Geopolitical Resolution Collapses Ton-Mile Demand — Geopolitical Resolution Collapses Ton-Mile Demand Houthi ceasefire; Russian crude sanction rollback; VLCC transit data at Hormuz by the next result.

The test written in advance. 2027 Supply Wave — Crude/Product Tanker Orderbook at 20–22% — 2027 Supply Wave — Crude/Product Tanker Orderbook at 20–22% Quarterly BIMCO orderbook data; crude tanker newbuild delivery schedule 2027 by the next result.

The test written in advance. Q4 FY26 PAT Quality — ₹517 Cr of Non-Recurring Items — Q4 FY26 PAT Quality — ₹517 Cr of Non-Recurring Items Q1 FY27 PAT ex-vessel sales and forex — reveals true rate trajectory by the next result.

Sources: our stock research file (31 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd reported ₹2,005 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +66.9% year on year. That is the 3rd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 3.6% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹5,409 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹6,212 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹5,409 Cr (+1.6% on the year), capping 10 years at 3.6% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹2,005 Cr, +66.9% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +24.9% growth against the decade's 3.6% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +23.9% over the last 4 quarters against +6.5%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +83.9% vs +14.7%/yr — accelerating.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹1,511 Cr and profit ₹1,044 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹2,005 Cr and profit ₹1,309 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (31 May 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd's operating margin is 67.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +13.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 30.0% to 58.0%.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 67.0%, +13.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 30.0%–58.0%, and FY26's 58.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +13.2 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.0 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹1,511 Cr and profit ₹1,044 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹2,005 Cr and profit ₹1,309 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (31 May 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd earned ₹1,309 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +159.7% year on year. It is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹2,943 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 10.4%. That is 65.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹504 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹1,309 Cr, +159.7% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹2,943 Cr (+25.6%), and the 10-year compound rate is 10.4%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +66.9% and the margin +13.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +96.3% vs revenue +24.9%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹1,511 Cr and profit ₹1,044 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹2,005 Cr and profit ₹1,309 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (31 May 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 105% of Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹2,854 Cr of operating cash against ₹2,943 Cr of profit. After ₹2,006 Cr of capital spending, ₹848 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹2,854 Cr against reported profit of ₹2,943 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹848 Cr after ₹2,006 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 105% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 105%: the cash cycle stretched 13 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 43 days in FY26, up from 30 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹3,328 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹5,409 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹14.8 Cr, so roughly ₹637 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

Why this happened. Two simultaneous disruptions are elongating shipping routes: (1) Hormuz Strait closure redirected Middle Eastern oil and LPG to Atlantic Basin suppliers, adding 2,000–5,000 nautical miles per voyage; (2) Russian sanctions permanently redirected ~3.5 Mb/d crude, shrinking the compliant VLCC fleet by ~23%. Q1 FY27 concall: management confirmed '80% of FY27 vessel days already locked in'. These ton-mile gains flow directly to spot rate uplift with vessel capacity utilisation exceeding 90%.

FY26: debtors at 43 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 43 days, looser than FY21's 30.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹5,409 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹14.8 Cr — so the 43-day loop keeps roughly ₹637 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹3,328 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹2,428 Cr of depreciation — building somewhat ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹46.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd earns a ROCE of 16% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 4% in FY18. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +14.3 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 54.4% net margin on 0.28× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 16%, recovered from a FY18 trough of 4% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 54.4% net margin × 0.28× asset turns × 1.15× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 17.5% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 26.3% − 12.0% = a +14.3 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every rupee reinvested creates more than a rupee of value — the engine compounds.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd carries total debt of ₹1,087 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹16,962 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.06 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.58 in FY22 to 0.06 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹1,087 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹16,962 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.06. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.58 (FY22) to 0.06 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions added 6.5 points of Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 31.0% of the company. Domestic institutions moved −4.5 points over the same window, to 12.8%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: +6.5 points over 8 quarters to 31.0%; Domestic institutions: −4.5 points over 8 quarters to 12.8%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 30.1%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions +6.5 points against domestic institutions −4.5 points over 8 quarters, with promoters holding steady — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd trades at 4.9× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 12% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 7.6×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 4.9× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 12% of the time, against a long-run median of 7.6× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

One caveat before moving on: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. If profitability mean-reverts, today's multiple is higher than it looks.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +25.5% against a +32.3% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +32.8%/yr price move, ~+101.7%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−68.9 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +14.2%/yr price move, ~+15.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−1.1 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −27.9% at the trough to +83.9%, a 3-quarter improving streak, ROCE lifting at 18.4%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

4-Factor Sector Score

61.5/100 — rank 3 of 6 in Shipping · 100% evidence confidence

Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd scores 61.5 out of 100 against the 6 companies it is compared with in Shipping, ranking 3. Acceleration candidate, not a confirmed leader: earnings are strong but sector-relative strength is -18.9% and the one-year return is 38%. Do not upgrade until sector-relative strength is above zero and another reported period confirms growth.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 26.4 + 14.5 + 17.9 + 2.7 = 61.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

🚨 Abandonment of Fleet Renewal Strategy · 30 January 2026. In the November 2025 call, management explicitly committed to maintaining their 'switch strategy' (selling old ships and buying newer ones) to prevent the fleet size from dropping below 40 ships, stating they would execute this even if markets did not cool off. However, in the January 2026 call, they directly contradicted this pledge by stating they are not investing at all due to high asset prices, effectively halting the renewal strategy they previously claimed was independent of market levels. Earlier call (Nov 2025): “Even if the markets do not come off for some time, we will still continue to do the switch strategy... we would not like to ideally drop below this 40-odd ships.” Later call (Jan 2026): “Asset prices are very high right now... which is exactly why we are not investing today... We are not looking to convert cash into assets at today”.

Reversal on Crude Fleet Expansion Goals · 30 January 2026. During the August 2025 call, management clearly stated their intention was to increase the crude tanker fleet again, noting that previous reductions were circumstantial rather than strategic. In the January 2026 call, despite acknowledging a strong crude market, they reversed this stance by refusing to acquire assets at current valuations, effectively abandoning the stated goal of regrowing the crude segment. Earlier call (Aug 2025): “Our intention is actually to increase the crude fleet again... Ideally, we would like to increase the number of crude tankers again.” Later call (Jan 2026): “We are not willing to risk a major drop in asset prices just to chase a 10% current yield. We are not looking to convert cash into assets at today”.

Shift in Container Segment Interest · 30 January 2026. In November 2025, management indicated an open-minded approach to the container segment, stating they would 'seriously look' at it if opportunities arose. By January 2026, this tone shifted to a dismissal with 'no current plans,' citing high order books as a negative factor, despite those market conditions being known during the prior call. Earlier call (Nov 2025): “And if we get those opportunities, we would seriously look at the container space as well.” Later call (Jan 2026): “Regarding the container space, we have no current plans... future fleet supply for containers is very high.”

Strategic Pivot on Capital Deployment · 10 November 2025. In both the May and Aug 2025 calls, management described their capital deployment as a defensive 'switch strategy' to 'maintain our capacity' and prevent the fleet size from shrinking. However, the November 2025 call reflects an unexplained strategic shift towards large-scale expansion, with management now discussing being 'prepared' for a potential doubling of the fleet size and highlighting the ability to absorb 'a significant amount of money' in new builds, a stark contrast to the prior maintenance-focused posture. Earlier call (May 2025): “we restricted ourselves to only doing those switches, just to maintain our capacity in the market.” Earlier call (Aug 2025): “we decided that not to let the fleet come down in size any further, and so to start a switch strategy and to maintain a certain amount of exposure to the market.” Later call (Nov 2025): “had it been that we had more money available, we could have executed more; we could have gone up to 55 or 60... after waiting for so long, that would be unforgivable. So clearly, we have, you know, we keep that in mind, and we have prepared ourselves for that eventuality.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions