Cosmo First Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Cosmo First Ltd trades at ₹875, in a confirmed uptrend and 11 weeks into that stage. That is +8.2% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 82% of a 52-week range of ₹577 to ₹938. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 11 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 11 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹875 it trades +8.2% versus its 200-day average and sits at 82% of its 52-week range (₹577–₹938).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +396% while the NIFTY 500 moved +267% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 11 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Cosmo First Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 22 August 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: Trough Recovery. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 22 August 2026.

Our read, 22 August 2026. Cosmo First is completing a 1,200 crore capex cycle, driving volume growth and margin recovery as high-margin specialty films and chemical adjacencies expand while free cash flow pivots to deleveraging.

From the numbers. Cosmo First trades at 14.1x trailing earnings (78.8th percentile of 10-year history), with valuation categorized by the cycle engine as an attractive opportunity given the earnings-driven contraction from a 2024 peak of…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 11 — above its 200-day line, relative strength rising.

From the research. Cosmo First is completing a 1,200 crore capex cycle, driving volume growth and margin recovery as high-margin specialty films and chemical adjacencies expand while free cash flow pivots to deleveraging.

🚨 Where they disagree. Cosmo First trades at 14.1x trailing earnings (78.8th percentile of 10-year history), with valuation categorized by the cycle engine as an attractive opportunity given the earnings-driven contraction from a 2024 peak of 31.6x. While the surface PE appears above its 10-year median of 8.3x, trailing earnings reflect trough operating margins of 11.7% compared to historical peak levels of 17% to 19%. On normalized mid-cycle operating margins of 10.7%, normalized PE is 13.0x (79th percentile). With the 81,000 MT line ramped and specialty mix reaching 61%, trailing twelve-month EPS has expanded 37.7% over 8 quarters, driving multiple compression through organic earnings recovery.

What is proven. Cosmo First is completing a 1,200 crore capex cycle, driving volume growth and margin recovery as high-margin specialty films and chemical adjacencies expand while free cash flow pivots to deleveraging.

What is not proven yet. Specialty film mix falling below 55% of volume for two consecutive quarters while domestic commodity BOPP gross margins remain depressed below 15 rupees per kilogram, preventing net debt from declining below 2.2x EBITDA.

🚨 What would change our mind. Specialty film mix falling below 55% of volume for two consecutive quarters while domestic commodity BOPP gross margins remain depressed below 15 rupees per kilogram, preventing net debt from declining below 2.2x EBITDA.

Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — KEEP. The capex bill is paid, margins are off the floor, and the share price has not noticed yet. Cosmo First has just finished spending about Rs 1,200 crore on new plant, and the new 81,000-tonne line now runs at 80-85% with 15% lower running costs — which is why the June quarter was the best in three years: sales Rs 1,166 crore, operating profit Rs 136 crore, earnings per share Rs 20.48. More than 60% of what it sells is now specialty film earning about Rs 63 a kilo against Rs 13-30 for plain film, which is what lifted margins off a 7% floor. The share looks dear against its own past on 14 times earnings only because those earnings are made at squeezed margins; in plain terms you are paying 1.5 times the company's book value for a business whose big spending is behind it and whose…

What would change Layer 1’s mind. Specialty and semi-specialty mix slipping back under 55% of volume for two consecutive quarters while domestic commodity BOPP gross margin stays under Rs 15 a kilo — that pairing would mean the seven-to-eight new industry lines are winning and the mix shift is not insulating earnings, which is the Timeline's own stated breaker. The second is the balance sheet: net debt to EBITDA still above 2.2x at the September-2026 quarter with FY27 capex creeping back over Rs 100 crore, which would kill the…

Layer 2 read, 22 August 2026 — BENCH. Cosmo's own recovery is real, but incoming sector capacity can take away the next margin gain. Cosmo has raised specialty plus semi-specialty mix to 61%, and BOPP gross margin recovered toward Rs 30 per kilogram. The external test changes the picture: sector capex is +29.78% and work in progress is +67.92%, giving a SUPPLY_FLOOD and CAPACITY_RISK reading. Because own utilisation remains about 85%, above the 70% driver kill-switch, this is BENCH rather than DROP.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. Advance if the sector capital-flow block stops showing SUPPLY_FLOOD for two consecutive fortnights while Cosmo's utilisation remains above the 70% kill-switch.

The test written in advance. Specialty film mix falling below 55% of volume for two consecutive quarters while domestic commodity BOPP gross margins remain depressed below 15 rupees per kilogram, preventing net debt from declining below 2.2x EBITDA. — the thesis as written as stated by the next result.

The test written in advance. Domestic BOPP and BOPET Capacity Additions — Domestic BOPP and BOPET Capacity Additions Domestic spot BOPP gross margins falling below 18 rupees per kilogram for two consecutive quarters. by the next result.

The test written in advance. Restructuring and Savings Timeline Alterations — Restructuring and Savings Timeline Alterations Further delay in Zigly subsidiary capitalization beyond FY27 or absence of renewable power PPA commissioning by Q3 FY27. by the next result.

What the company does. The company completed its 1,200 crore capex program, ramping its 81,000 MT BOPP line to achieve 15% lower variable production costs. Specialty film mix reached 61% and specialty chemicals delivered 25% EBITDA margin, insulating blended earnings from commodity film spread volatility. With annual capex dropping below 100 crore in FY27, operating cash flow of 397 crore converts to free cash flow, targeting net debt below 2.0x EBITDA within 12 months.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: Specialty mix at 61% shows gradual progress toward value-add products. The research reads it further: Specialty films command 63 rupees per kilogram gross margin (2.5x commodity margins), insulating blended profitability from domestic BOPP supply gluts while expanding return on capital.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: High OCF to PAT conversion of 2.54x signals high cash generation. The research reads it further: Cash profit of 293 crore was driven by 137 crore depreciation on newly capitalized assets from the 1,200 crore capex cycle. Working capital absorbed 104 crore, while capex of 395 crore absorbed nearly all OCF, resulting in 2 crore free cash flow.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. Ramping the new 81,000 MT line achieves 15% lower variable cost and dilutes fixed manufacturing overhead. What proves it keeps working: 81,000 MT BOPP Line Operating Leverage. It stops working if Domestic demand decelerates sharply or capacity utilization drops below 70% due to persistent supply gluts.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. Increasing value-added specialty mix to 70% insulates gross margins from commodity spread cycles. What proves it keeps working: Specialty Film Mix Expansion toward 70%. It stops working if Commodity film volume expansion outpaces specialty sales conversion, diluting portfolio gross margin below 40 rupees per kilogram.

Lever 4 · Paying down debt — BUILDING. Completion of the 1,200 crore capex cycle converts 397 crore operating cash flow into rapid debt reduction. What proves it keeps working: Capex Cliff and Deleveraging Engine. It stops working if Working capital requirements expand significantly or management initiates unannounced major capital expenditure projects.

Sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Cosmo First Ltd reported ₹1,166 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +45.8% year on year. That is the 9th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 8.4% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹3,639 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹4,005 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹3,639 Cr (+25.7% on the year), capping 10 years at 8.4% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹1,166 Cr, +45.8% year on year — the 9th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +33.0% growth against the decade's 8.4% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +33.2% over the last 4 quarters against +23.6%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +15.1% vs +45.8%/yr — rolling over.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹1,021 Cr and profit ₹37 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹1,166 Cr and profit ₹54 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Cosmo First Ltd's operating margin is 12.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 6.0% to 19.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. The commissioning and ramp-up of the 81,000 MT BOPP production line expands total capacity and lowers unit production expenses by 15% relative to legacy lines. In Q1 FY27, film utilization reached 85%, driving consolidated revenue up 45.8% YoY to 1,166 crore. As production shifts toward higher line speeds and continuous runs, fixed depreciation of 38 crore per quarter is distributed over expanding tonnage.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 12.0%, +1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 6.0%–19.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.2 pp year on year while gross margin went −2.1 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹1,021 Cr and profit ₹37 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹1,166 Cr and profit ₹54 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Cosmo First Ltd earned ₹54.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +25.6% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹156 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 5.0%. That is 4.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹43.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹54.0 Cr, +25.6% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹156 Cr (+17.3%), and the 10-year compound rate is 5.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +45.8% and the margin +1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +16.2% vs revenue +33.0%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹1,021 Cr and profit ₹37 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹1,166 Cr and profit ₹54 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 230% of Cosmo First Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹397 Cr of operating cash against ₹156 Cr of profit. After ₹395 Cr of capital spending, ₹2.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹397 Cr against reported profit of ₹156 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹2.0 Cr after ₹395 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 230% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 230%: the cash cycle tightened 65 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 4.2× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Cosmo First Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 10 days in FY26, down from 75 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹1,381 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹3,639 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹10.0 Cr, so roughly ₹100 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 40 days, inventory at 110 days — roughly 3.6 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 10 days, tighter than FY21's 75.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 110 days to sell; customers pay about 40 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 140 days — netting out to the 10-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹3,639 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹10.0 Cr — so the 10-day loop keeps roughly ₹100 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹1,381 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹326 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹189 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.⚠ unverified

Cosmo First Ltd earns a ROCE of 11% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 7% in FY14. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −4.4 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 4.3% net margin on 0.78× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 11%, recovered from a FY14 trough of 7% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 4.3% net margin × 0.78× asset turns × 2.90× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 9.7% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 7.6% − 12.0% = a −4.4 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.⚠ unverified

Cosmo First Ltd carries total debt of ₹1,680 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,617 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 1.04. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.69 in FY22 to 1.04 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Why this happened. With strategic capex of 1,200 crore deployed over three years completed, annual capital expenditure decreases from 395 crore in FY26 to under 100 crore in FY27. Operating cash flow of 397 crore in FY26 (2.54x PAT) allows surplus cash generation to pay down borrowings. Management plans 400 to 500 crore debt reduction over 24 months, lowering net debt from 1,159 crore to under 2.0x EBITDA within 12 months and reducing annual interest expense from 149 crore.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹1,680 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,617 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 1.04. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.69 (FY22) to 1.04 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 4.3 points of Cosmo First Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 40.8% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −0.8 points over the same window, to 2.4%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −4.3 points over 8 quarters to 40.8%; Foreign institutions: −0.8 points over 8 quarters to 2.4%; Domestic institutions: +0.8 points over 8 quarters to 1.5%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−4.3 points), alongside foreign institutions (−0.8 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Cosmo First Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Cosmo First Ltd trades at 13.4× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (80th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 8.0×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 13.4× is at the pricey end of its own range (80th percentile), against a long-run median of 8.0× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +16.9% against a −5.3% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +0.1%/yr price move, ~−8.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+8.3 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +14.1%/yr price move, ~+6.6%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+7.5 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources do not share enough overlapping reported history to be compared. A figure nobody could check is not used to price growth — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 26 August 2026 price, Cosmo First Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 7.1% a year. Profit itself has compounded 5.0% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 13.4× P/E, the 80th percentile of its own 11-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is close to what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 26 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Cosmo First Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: profit growth has eased from +84.8% at its peak to +15.1% but is still expanding, ROCE holding at 11.0%. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

64.2/100 — rank 1 of 5 in Packaging - BOPP · 87% evidence confidence

Cosmo First Ltd scores 64.2 out of 100 against the 5 companies it is compared with in Packaging - BOPP, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 24.3 + 14.6 + 8.1 + 17.2 = 64.2. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Cosmo First Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Renewable Energy Savings Timeline Reversed · 7 August 2026. In Feb 2026, management said renewable projects were already generating some gains. In Aug 2026, management said the discussed savings had not started and no benefit was included in Q1, creating a material change in the earnings-savings timeline that was not reconciled.

Cosmo Consumer Long-Term Growth Guidance Withdrawn · 7 August 2026. In Feb and May 2026, management expressed confidence in a minimum 50% CAGR for Cosmo Consumer. In Aug 2026, management declined to provide any long-term numbers because export traction remained limited, representing a material retreat in long-term confidence despite continued near-term growth commentary.

US Growth Guidance Raised Materially · 7 August 2026. May 2026 guidance called for US growth of 15% to 20% as a minimum, while Aug 2026 guidance increased the expected range to 25% to 30%. The latest call attributes the revision to duty rationalization but does not provide a quantified bridge explaining why the expected growth rate is materially higher than the previous range.

ROCE Target Raised Above Prior Guidance · 7 August 2026. In May 2026, management expected ROCE to reach approximately 14% to 15% in the following year. In Aug 2026, the target was raised to 15% to 20% over the next 12 to 24 months, increasing the upper end by 5 percentage points; management cited broad operating levers but did not provide a quantified bridge supporting the higher target.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions