ADF Foods Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

ADF Foods Ltd trades at ₹270, in a confirmed uptrend and 17 weeks into that stage. That is +5.5% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 69% of a 52-week range of ₹158 to ₹320. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (7 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 17 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹270 it trades +5.5% versus its 200-day average and sits at 69% of its 52-week range (₹158–₹320).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +1,564% while the NIFTY 500 moved +267% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (7 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-24) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

ADF Foods Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 22 August 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: EARLY_EXPANSION. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 22 August 2026.

Our read, 22 August 2026. ADF Foods has demand and fresh frozen-food capacity, but shipment conversion, cash absorption and repeated revisions to Surat assumptions keep the case conditional.

From the numbers. The weekly valuation snapshot carries a STRONG_OPPORTUNITY matrix label, but the normalized cycle study's verdict is FAIRLY_PRICED. Trailing earnings make valuation appear moderate; normalized earnings place it at a…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 17 — above its 200-day line, relative strength falling.

From the research. ADF Foods has demand and fresh frozen-food capacity, but shipment conversion, cash absorption and repeated revisions to Surat assumptions keep the case conditional.

🚨 Where they disagree. The weekly valuation snapshot carries a STRONG_OPPORTUNITY matrix label, but the normalized cycle study's verdict is FAIRLY_PRICED. Trailing earnings make valuation appear moderate; normalized earnings place it at a higher historical percentile because margins are near mid-cycle. The operating cycle is early expansion, yet the valuation case requires shipment conversion and Surat execution rather than relying on a denominator-driven valuation inversion.

What is proven. ADF Foods has demand and fresh frozen-food capacity, but shipment conversion, cash absorption and repeated revisions to Surat assumptions keep the case conditional.

What is not proven yet. The thesis fails if shipment conversion remains constrained and Surat does not progress toward management's fiscal-year utilization and revenue targets while working-capital absorption continues to outpace cash generation.

🚨 What would change our mind. The thesis fails if shipment conversion remains constrained and Surat does not progress toward management's fiscal-year utilization and revenue targets while working-capital absorption continues to outpace cash generation.

Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — KEEP. Real demand and new capacity, but shipping delays and four broken promises mean delivery must earn the return. Sales grew 25.6% to Rs 167 crore in the June quarter while profit grew only 13.3%, because ready goods could not be shipped for lack of vessels and containers and management says the order book is the strongest it has ever been. The new Surat frozen-food plant is now selling commercially and is targeted to add Rs 40-50 crore this year at about 30% utilisation, which is nameable fuel for the next six quarters. Against that, the same management moved its revenue target down, pushed the second Surat line out a quarter, and reset full utilisation to FY30, and the quarter's margin includes a roughly Rs 7 crore tariff refund that management itself excludes from its ongoing margin target — so the…

What would change Layer 1’s mind. A second consecutive quarter where ready goods again cannot be shipped AND Surat's fiscal-year revenue target is revised below Rs 40 crore — that combination would mean the order book is not convertible and the capacity story has slipped a fourth time, which is exactly the timeline's own kill condition sharpened to a two-quarter test. A quarterly revenue print below Rs 190 crore in Q2 FY27 with cash conversion still under 0.7 would be the early tell.

Layer 2 read, 22 August 2026 — ADVANCE. Supply is tightening while ADF's sales rise, but execution still needs a hard risk review. ADF's Q1 sales grew 25.6%, and the latest sector block shows absent institutions with supply withdrawal. I discount the older bullish sector curve because VBL produced 92.8% of its profit move, and I keep L1's execution cap because tariff sharing reversed and full Surat use moved to FY30.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. A new filing or call confirming another slip in Surat's fiscal-year utilization or Phase 2 schedule because shipment constraints remain unresolved would flip ADVANCE to DROP.

Layer 3 read, 22 August 2026 — BENCH. Real demand is stuck behind shipping problems, and management has not earned trust on revised targets. Fresh August evidence confirms Timeline R1: ready goods could not fully ship because vessels and containers were unavailable. The same management missed or revised the revenue, Surat timing and tariff promises tracked in G1-G4, so the risk sweep aligns with the Timeline rather than mitigating it.

What would change Layer 3’s mind. A second consecutive quarter in which ready goods cannot ship would escalate the execution risk and flip BENCH to DROP.

The test written in advance. The thesis fails if shipment conversion remains constrained and Surat does not progress toward management's fiscal-year utilization and revenue targets while working-capital absorption continues to outpace cash generation. — the thesis as written as stated by the next result.

The test written in advance. Shipment conversion and freight — Shipment conversion and freight Reported revenue and management disclosure of ready-goods shipment conversion by the next result.

The test written in advance. Management credibility — Management credibility No further revision to Surat utilization, revenue contribution or full-ramp timing by the next result.

What the company does. The latest quarter delivered revenue growth while reported profit grew more slowly, as shipping constraints delayed conversion of ready goods and the tariff refund lifted reported margin. Surat commercial deliveries, branded-store expansion and frozen-food mix provide identifiable forward fuel, but the ramp now targets fiscal-year-end utilization rather than an immediate capacity step-up. The valuation is fair on trailing earnings but less forgiving on normalized earnings; delivery must catch up before a higher multiple is justified.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: The trailing multiple suggests a moderate valuation. The research reads it further: Margins are near mid-cycle rather than depressed, so normalizing earnings reduces the denominator and raises the valuation reading.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: Cash conversion below reported profit can imply weak earnings quality. The research reads it further: Cash was used for manufacturing capex and growth working capital; the deterministic cash story classifies this as growth-led working-capital and capex absorption.

Lever 6 · Order-book wins — BUILDING. Commercial deliveries have begun, with management targeting fiscal-year utilization and revenue from Surat while Phase 2 adds another product line. What proves it keeps working: Surat frozen-food ramp. It stops working if Shipment shortages persist or Surat misses the fiscal-year utilization and revenue targets.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. Truly Indian has expanded across United States retail stores, with existing-store orders cited as a source of growth. What proves it keeps working: Branded retail expansion. It stops working if Repeat orders do not convert into rising revenue per store and marketing spending remains elevated.

Lever 8 · Demerger or value unlock — BUILDING. Ashoka growth and frozen-food mix can support revenue and margin once freight pass-through is established. What proves it keeps working: Ashoka and frozen-product mix. It stops working if Freight pass-through falls short and recurring margin remains below management’s high-teen objective.

Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. Faster export clearances and an Ireland structure may improve shipment handling and open incremental European distribution. What proves it keeps working: Export-clearance and Europe expansion. It stops working if The thesis fails if shipment conversion remains constrained and Surat does not progress toward management's fiscal-year utilization and revenue targets while working-capital absorption continues to outpace cash generation.

Sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

ADF Foods Ltd reported ₹167 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +25.6% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 12.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹683 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹718 Cr.

Why this happened. The capex inflection point applies because Surat is no longer a proposal: commercial deliveries have started and the next product line is planned for the current fiscal year. The payoff depends on product acceptance, repeat orders and shipment availability, not simply installed capacity.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹683 Cr (+15.8% on the year), capping 10 years at 12.5% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹167 Cr, +25.6% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +20.1% growth against the decade's 12.5% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +19.7% over the last 4 quarters against +16.3%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +30.0% vs +11.7%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

ADF Foods Ltd's operating margin is 18.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 8.0% to 20.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. The geographic TAM expansion model applies through mainstream retail placements and repeat orders. The missing disclosure is store-level sales productivity, so the store footprint is a leading indicator rather than proof of a fully scaled earnings stream.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 18.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 8.0%–20.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.0 pp year on year while gross margin went +3.0 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

ADF Foods Ltd earned ₹17.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +13.3% year on year. It is the 5th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹90.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 29.1%. That is 10.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹15.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹17.0 Cr, +13.3% year on year — the 5th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹90.0 Cr (+30.4%), and the 10-year compound rate is 29.1%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +25.6% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +30.4% vs revenue +20.1%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 71% of ADF Foods Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — most of the profit is real cash. In FY26 that was ₹58.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹90.0 Cr of profit. After ₹101 Cr of capital spending, ₹−43.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹58.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹90.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−43.0 Cr after ₹101 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 71% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 71%: the cash cycle stretched 23 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 23 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

ADF Foods Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 162 days in FY26, up from 139 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹158 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹683 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹1.9 Cr, so roughly ₹303 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 77 days, inventory at 205 days — roughly 6.7 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 162 days, looser than FY21's 139.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 205 days to sell; customers pay about 77 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 120 days — netting out to the 162-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹683 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹1.9 Cr — so the 162-day loop keeps roughly ₹303 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹158 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹55.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹27.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

ADF Foods Ltd earns a ROCE of 22% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 4% in FY14. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +3.9 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 13.2% net margin on 0.92× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 22%, recovered from a FY14 trough of 4% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 13.2% net margin × 0.92× asset turns × 1.30× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 15.8% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 15.9% − 12.0% = a +3.9 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

ADF Foods Ltd carries total debt of ₹55.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹572 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.10 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.20 in FY22 to 0.10 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹55.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹572 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.10. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.20 (FY22) to 0.10 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 12.7 points of ADF Foods Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 21.3% of the company. Foreign institutions moved +2.1 points over the same window, to 11.6%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +12.7 points over 8 quarters to 21.3%; Foreign institutions: +2.1 points over 8 quarters to 11.6%; Promoters: −0.2 points over 8 quarters to 36.1%.

Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (+12.7 points), alongside foreign institutions (+2.1 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

ADF Foods Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

ADF Foods Ltd trades at 30.6× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (43rd percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 31.8×, measured across 10.6 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Why this happened. The value-chain climb is supported by management’s description of Ashoka growth and favorable product mix. It fails if freight costs cannot be passed through or if the tariff-related margin support is mistaken for recurring operating leverage.

Today's P/E of 30.6× is mid-range by its own standards (43rd percentile), against a long-run median of 31.8× measured over 10.6 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +29.8% against a +17.1% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +8.0%/yr price move, ~+10.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−2.9 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +26.8%/yr price move, ~+26.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+0.5 pp from the multiple (roughly flat). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 25 August 2026 price, ADF Foods Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 18.5% a year. Profit itself has compounded 29.1% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 30.6× P/E, the 43rd percentile of its own 11-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is unremarkable against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 25 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

ADF Foods Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −4.1% at the trough to +30.0%, a 4-quarter improving streak, ROCE lifting at 20.7%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

4-Factor Sector Score

74.4/100 — rank 1 of 4 in FMCG - Contract Mfg · 97% evidence confidence

ADF Foods Ltd scores 74.4 out of 100 against the 4 companies it is compared with in FMCG - Contract Mfg, ranking 1. Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 29.2 + 19.3 + 14.3 + 11.6 = 74.4. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What ADF Foods Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Tariff Burden Explanation Reversed · 30 July 2026. In February 2026, management said tariffs were passed through to consumers by distributors, implying ADF did not absorb the tariff cost. In July 2026, management said most mainstream customers did not share the tariff increase and that ADF absorbed it, a direct reversal with material implications for historical margins and credibility.

Surat Full-Capacity Revenue Revised Upward · 30 July 2026. In May 2026, management estimated Surat's full-capacity revenue at INR200 crores to INR250 crores, whereas the July 2026 call stated that the facility could support a little under 300 crores. This is a material increase in the plant's modeled revenue capacity, and management did not explain whether the scope, product mix, or underlying assumptions had changed.

Surat Full-Utilization Date Shift · 30 July 2026. In May 2026, management said it was hoping to reach full utilization in year 3. In July 2026, management identified FY30 as the realistic year for full utilization, indicating a potentially later milestone without explaining the change in the ramp schedule.

🚨 Shipping Disruption Risk Narrative Deteriorated · 30 July 2026. In May 2026, management characterized the shipping issue as primarily affecting the GCC, while saying other markets were still accepting shipments with only longer transit times and somewhat higher freight. In July 2026, management said 30% of ready goods could not be shipped in June because of vessel and container shortages, indicating a broader and more persistent operational impact that was not reconciled with the prior outlook.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions