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Tirupati Forge Ltd: Why Is It Outperforming Nifty 500?

Active
RS +28.6%Average6w StreakRe-Entry

In Week of May 10, 2026, Tirupati Forge Ltd (Castings, Forgings & Fastners) is outperforming Nifty 500 with +28.6% relative strength. Fundamentals: Average. On a 6-week streak.

Tirupati Forge Ltd Key Facts

PE Ratio
90.9x
Market Cap
₹552 Cr
PAT Growth YoY
+54%
Revenue Growth YoY
+86%
OPM
10.5%
RS vs Nifty 500
+28.6%
PE: At PeakDanger Bubble

What's Happening

⚠️PE rising despite falling earnings — price running ahead of reality
👔Promoter stake down 7.7% this quarter
💰Trading 89% above estimated fair value — significant premium

Earnings Acceleration Triggers

1. Operating Leverage Inflection
Q1 FY27HIGH
2. Geographical Expansion
CurrentHIGH
3. New Product Or Brand Launch
March 2026MEDIUM

Key Risks

1. 50% duty imposed in the U
HIGH
2. Changes in government policy affected the ability to fully utilize solar generat
MEDIUM

Sector-Specific Signals

Export Revenue % of Total65%
Defence Unit Installed Capacity150,000 units
Solar Energy Cost Savings₹7.5 mn
Flanges Revenue Share65.35%

Key Numbers

PAT Growth YoY
+54%
Inflection Up
Revenue YoY
+86%
Inflection Up
Operating Margin
10.5%
+56 bps YoY
PE Ratio
90.9
Current Price
₹44
Fundamental Score
46/100
Average
3Y PAT CAGR
+10%
Market Cap
552 Cr
Valuation
Significantly Overvalued

12-Week Performance

Weekly presence in the outperformers list. Green = beating Nifty 500 by 10%+ that week.

12 weeks agoThis week

Why Are Tirupati Forge Ltd's Earnings Accelerating?

Based on Q3 FY26 earnings • Updated Apr 18, 2026

Operating Leverage Inflection

Expected: Q1 FY27HIGH confidence

What: Capacity Utilization: 50% in Q1FY27

“With the full utilization of the solar plant and the commencement of commercial operations at the defence unit... the Company anticipates a marked improvement in margins.”

Geographical Expansion

Expected: CurrentHIGH confidence

What: Export Revenue Share: 65%

“A constructive development has been the improvement in India–US trade sentiment, which is particularly significant given that over 50% of our export demand is linked to the US market.”

New Product Or Brand Launch

Expected: March 2026MEDIUM confidence

What: Installed Capacity: 150,000 units

“We are preparing to commence production of 155 mm MT107 HE empty shell bodies with an installed capacity of 150,000 units per annum.”

PAT growth of 50.75% QoQ

HIGH confidence

What: PAT growth of 50.75% QoQ

“PAT increased by 50.75 % from ₹ 13.40 mn to ₹ 20.20 mn QoQ, led by higher sales volumes and sustained energy cost optimisation.”

What Are the Key Risks for Tirupati Forge Ltd?

Earnings deceleration risks from management commentary

50% duty imposed in the U

HIGH

Trigger: Trade policy changes in the US market.

Management view: Monitoring improved India-US trade sentiment which enhances medium-term visibility.

Monitor: geopolitical

Changes in government policy affected the ability to fully utilize solar generat

MEDIUM

Trigger: Recent changes in government policy regarding solar power.

Management view: Expect full utilization once the defence manufacturing unit commences operations.

Monitor: regulatory

What Is Tirupati Forge Ltd's Management Saying?

Key quotes from recent conference calls

“With the full utilization of the solar plant and the commencement of commercial operations at the defence unit, expected by Q4 FY26 [Previous Defence Unit Commissioning guidance]”
“We expect commercial production to commence in the Q1FY27, with operations scaling to 100% capacity utilization by H2FY27. [Previous Defence Capacity Utilization guidance]”
“The company’s strategic pivot towards the defence manufacturing segment marks a transformational shift in our business model. [Initiative: Defence Manufacturing Pivot]”
“temporary pressure on profitability impacted by... the 50% duty imposed in the U.S., our key export market. [Risk (geopolitical): HIGH]”

What Did Tirupati Forge Ltd Report This Quarter?

Headline numbers from the latest earnings call

Revenue

₹493 mn

QoQ +21.1%

Why: Driven by strong demand from overseas markets where exports contributed 65% of total revenue during the quarter.

Revenue growth was primarily export-led with improved trade sentiment in the US market.

EBITDA

₹57.4 mn

Margin 11.6%

Why: Supported by energy cost saving of ₹ 7.5 mn following commissioning of the solar power plant.

Operational efficiency improved significantly due to the captive solar power generation.

PAT

₹20.2 mn

QoQ +50.8%

Why: Led by higher sales volumes and sustained energy cost optimisation.

Profitability growth outpaced revenue growth due to margin expansion from lower energy costs.

Other Highlights

• Exports contributed 65% of total revenue during the quarter.

• Energy cost savings of ₹7.5 mn achieved from solar plant commissioning.

• Civil works for the new manufacturing facility have been completed.

What Sector Metrics Matter for Tirupati Forge Ltd?

Sub-sector-specific signals from the latest concall — each with management's stated reason for the change

Export Revenue % of Total

65%

Why: Strong demand from overseas markets.

Defence Unit Installed Capacity

150,000 units

Why: New facility setup for 155mm shell bodies.

Solar Energy Cost Savings

₹7.5 mn

Why: Commissioning of the solar power plant.

Flanges Revenue Share

65.35%

Oil & Gas Customer Base Share

65.53%

Total Installed Capacity (TPA)

15,000 TPA

Domestic Revenue Share

35%

Defence Utilization Target (Q1FY27)

50%

Why: Phased ramp-up plan.

What Is Tirupati Forge Ltd's Management Guidance?

Forward-looking targets from management for Q2 FY27

Revenue Outlook

Meaningful topline growth from Q2 FY27

Margin Outlook

Improved profitability from Q2 FY27

Volume

150,000 units per annum installed capacity

Management Tone: BULLISH

Guidance Changes

LOWERED

Defence Capacity Utilization Target: 100% by H2FY27 → 80% by FY28

How Fast Is Tirupati Forge Ltd Growing?

Revenue, profit and margin growth rates

MetricYoY3Y CAGRTrend
Revenue+86%+9%Inflection Up
PAT (Net Profit)+54%+10%Inflection Up
OPM10.5%+56 bpsVolatile

The above analysis is parsed from publicly available earnings call transcripts. This is educational research only — not investment advice. Last updated Apr 18, 2026.

Other Top Castings, Forgings & Fastners Stocks Beating Nifty 500

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Sona BLW Precision Forgings Ltd
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Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd
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Frequently Asked Questions: Tirupati Forge Ltd

Based on publicly available financial data. This is educational research, not investment advice.

What were Tirupati Forge Ltd's latest quarterly results?

Tirupati Forge Ltd's latest quarterly results (Dec 2025) show

  • PAT Growth YoY: +54.2% (turning around (inflection up))
  • Revenue Growth YoY: +85.9%
  • Operating Margin: 10.5% (volatile)

Is Tirupati Forge Ltd's profit growing or declining?

Tirupati Forge Ltd's profit is growing with an turning around (inflection up) trend.

  • PAT Growth YoY: +54.2% (latest quarter)
  • PAT Growth QoQ: +50.7% (sequential)
  • 3-Year PAT CAGR: +10.1%
  • Trend: Turning around (inflection up) — consistent growth pattern

What is Tirupati Forge Ltd's revenue growth trend?

Tirupati Forge Ltd's revenue growth trend is turning around (inflection up).

  • Revenue Growth YoY: +85.9%
  • Revenue Growth QoQ: +22.5% (sequential)
  • 3-Year Revenue CAGR: +9.3%

How is Tirupati Forge Ltd's operating margin trending?

Tirupati Forge Ltd's operating margin is volatile.

  • Current OPM: 10.5%
  • OPM Change YoY: +0.6% basis points
  • OPM Change QoQ: +2.3% basis points

What is Tirupati Forge Ltd's 3-year profit and revenue CAGR?

Tirupati Forge Ltd's long-term compounding rates

  • 3-Year Profit CAGR: +10.1%
  • 3-Year Revenue CAGR: +9.3%

Is Tirupati Forge Ltd's growth accelerating or decelerating?

Tirupati Forge Ltd's earnings growth is turning around (inflection up) with mixed signals on a sequential basis.

  • YoY Acceleration: +103.4% bps
  • Sequential Acceleration: +55.0% bps

What is Tirupati Forge Ltd's trailing twelve month (TTM) performance?

Tirupati Forge Ltd's trailing twelve month (TTM) performance

  • TTM PAT: ₹6 Cr
  • TTM PAT Growth: -28.3% YoY
  • TTM Revenue: ₹148 Cr
  • TTM Revenue Growth: +22.8% YoY
  • TTM Operating Margin: 10.2%

Is Tirupati Forge Ltd overvalued or undervalued?

Tirupati Forge Ltd appears significantly overvalued based on our fair value analysis.

  • Valuation Signal: Significantly Overvalued
  • Current PE: 90.9x
  • Price-to-Book: 4.5x

What is Tirupati Forge Ltd's current PE ratio?

Tirupati Forge Ltd's current PE ratio is 90.9x.

  • Current PE: 90.9x
  • Market Cap: 552 Cr

How does Tirupati Forge Ltd's valuation compare to its history?

Tirupati Forge Ltd's current PE is 90.9x.

  • Current PE: 90.9x
  • Valuation Assessment: Significantly Overvalued

What is Tirupati Forge Ltd's price-to-book ratio?

Tirupati Forge Ltd's price-to-book ratio is 4.5x.

  • Price-to-Book (P/B): 4.5x
  • Book Value per Share: ₹10
  • Current Price: ₹44

Is Tirupati Forge Ltd a fundamentally strong company?

Tirupati Forge Ltd is rated Average with a fundamental score of 46/100. This score is calculated from objective financial metrics

  • Revenue Growth YoY: +85.9% (10% weight)
  • PAT Growth YoY: +54.2% (10% weight)
  • PAT Growth QoQ: +50.7% (10% weight)
  • Margins stable (10% weight)

Is Tirupati Forge Ltd debt free?

Tirupati Forge Ltd has a debt-to-equity ratio of N/A.

  • Total Debt: ₹25 Cr

What is Tirupati Forge Ltd's return on equity (ROE) and ROCE?

Tirupati Forge Ltd's return ratios over recent years

  • FY2023: ROCE 32.0%
  • FY2024: ROCE 18.0%
  • FY2025: ROCE 12.0%

Is Tirupati Forge Ltd's cash flow positive?

Tirupati Forge Ltd's operating cash flow is positive (FY2025).

  • Cash from Operations (CFO): ₹6 Cr
  • Free Cash Flow (FCF): ₹-32 Cr
  • CFO/PAT Ratio: 75% (adequate)

What is Tirupati Forge Ltd's dividend yield?

Tirupati Forge Ltd currently does not pay a significant dividend (yield 0.00%).

  • Dividend Yield: 0.00%
  • Current Price: ₹44

Who holds Tirupati Forge Ltd shares — promoters, FII, DII?

Tirupati Forge Ltd's shareholding pattern (Apr 2026)

  • Promoters: 49.8%
  • FII (Foreign): 0.8%
  • Public: 49.5%

Is promoter holding increasing or decreasing in Tirupati Forge Ltd?

Tirupati Forge Ltd's promoter holding has increased recently.

  • Current Promoter Holding: 49.8% (Apr 2026)
  • Previous Quarter: 49.0% (Mar 2026)
  • Change: +0.74% (increasing — positive signal)

How long has Tirupati Forge Ltd been outperforming Nifty 500?

Tirupati Forge Ltd has been outperforming Nifty 500 for 6 consecutive weeks, indicating building momentum.

Is Tirupati Forge Ltd a new momentum entry or an established outperformer?

Tirupati Forge Ltd is a re-entry — it briefly dropped off the outperformance list but has now returned. Re-entries can signal renewed strength.

What are the growth catalysts for Tirupati Forge Ltd?

Tirupati Forge Ltd has 4 key growth catalysts identified from recent earnings analysis

  • Operating Leverage Inflection — Commencement of commercial production at the defence unit will drive margin improvement.
  • Geographical Expansion — Improved India-US trade sentiment is enhancing demand visibility.
  • New Product Or Brand Launch — Entry into the high-value defence ammunition market with 155mm shell bodies.
  • PAT growth of 50.75% QoQ — Higher sales volumes combined with ₹7.5 mn in energy cost savings from the solar plant.

What are the key risks in Tirupati Forge Ltd?

Tirupati Forge Ltd has 2 key risks worth monitoring

  • [HIGH] 50% duty imposed in the U — Trade policy changes in the US market.
  • [MEDIUM] Changes in government policy affected the ability to fully utilize solar generat — Recent changes in government policy regarding solar power.

What did Tirupati Forge Ltd's management say in the latest earnings call?

In Q3 FY26, Tirupati Forge Ltd's management highlighted

  • "With the full utilization of the solar plant and the commencement of commercial operations at the defence unit, expected by Q4 FY26 [Previous Defence..."
  • "We expect commercial production to commence in the Q1FY27, with operations scaling to 100% capacity utilization by H2FY27. [Previous Defence Capacity..."
  • "The company’s strategic pivot towards the defence manufacturing segment marks a transformational shift in our business model. [Initiative: Defence Ma..."

What is Tirupati Forge Ltd's management guidance for growth?

Tirupati Forge Ltd's management has provided the following forward guidance for Q2 FY27

  • Revenue outlook: Meaningful topline growth from Q2 FY27
  • Margin outlook: Improved profitability from Q2 FY27
  • Capex plan: Not Given for Capacity expansion of the defence facility
  • Management tone: bullish
  • Milestone: [LOWERED] Defence Capacity Utilization Target: 100% by H2FY27 → 80% by FY28

What sector-specific metrics matter most for Tirupati Forge Ltd?

Tirupati Forge Ltd's most important sub-sector-specific KPIs from the latest concall

  • Export Revenue % of Total: 65% — Strong demand from overseas markets.
  • Defence Unit Installed Capacity: 150,000 units — New facility setup for 155mm shell bodies.
  • Solar Energy Cost Savings: ₹7.5 mn — Commissioning of the solar power plant.
  • Flanges Revenue Share: 65.35%
  • Oil & Gas Customer Base Share: 65.53%
  • Total Installed Capacity (TPA): 15,000 TPA

Is Tirupati Forge Ltd worth studying for long term investment?

Based on quantitative research signals, here is why Tirupati Forge Ltd may be worth studying

  • Earnings growing at +54.2% YoY
  • Cash flow is positive — CFO ₹6 Cr

What is the investment thesis for Tirupati Forge Ltd?

Tirupati Forge Ltd investment thesis summary:

Research Signals (Bull Case)

  • Revenue growing at +85.9% YoY
  • Growth catalyst: Operating Leverage Inflection

Risk Factors (Bear Case)

  • Appears significantly overvalued
  • Key risk: 50% duty imposed in the U

What is the future outlook for Tirupati Forge Ltd?

Tirupati Forge Ltd's forward outlook based on current data signals

  • Earnings Trend: turning around (inflection up)
  • Revenue Trend: turning around (inflection up)
  • Margin Trend: volatile
  • Valuation: Significantly Overvalued
  • Key Catalyst: Operating Leverage Inflection
  • Key Risk: 50% duty imposed in the U

The above FAQs are generated from publicly available earnings data and conference call transcripts. This is educational research only. Sector Alpha is not SEBI registered and does not provide investment advice.