In , Bharat Forge Ltd (Castings, Forgings & Fastners) is outperforming Nifty 500 with +29.1% relative strength. Fundamentals: Weak. On a 12-week streak.
Weekly presence in the outperformers list. Green = beating Nifty 500 by 10%+ that week.
Based on Q3 FY26 earnings • Updated Apr 18, 2026
What: New Business Secured: ₹2,388 Cr
“In last quarter, the company had secured new business worth INR2,388 crores across all key businesses, which includes... defense of INR1,878 crores.”
What: Industrial Segment Growth: 11%
“While the auto sector was down 13%, the industrial witnessed sharp 11% growth. This was mainly on account of improved business in Oil and Gas, Aerospace business.”
What: Strategic Investment: 23% stake
Impact: ₹1,300 Cr valuation
“We have now brought in a very high quality investor in the form of Premji Invest, which has invested to take a meaningful stake in the company and it's 23% at a valuation of INR1,300 crores.”
What: Export Recovery: Gradual improvement
“Exports seem to have bottomed out and we should see a gradual improvement from here.”
What: Defense ROCE: Better than auto
“I think the ROCE should be better because we don't have the same amount of capital employed.”
What: Sequential revenue growth of 7%
“The standalone revenues were up 7% sequentially to about INR2,084 crores... performance was aided by strong growth in domestic automotive business and execution of defense order book.”
What: 10-12% → 20-30%
“But clearly, 10%, 11% will definitely be more like closer to 18-20% if things go right... I think let's look at 20%, 30%.”
Earnings deceleration risks from management commentary
Trigger: Trade policies and uncertainty in the North American market.
Impact: PAT impact: ₹31 Cr cost in Q3
Management view: Differentiating position through new product development and navigating trade deals.
Monitor: geopolitical
Trigger: Cyclical downturn and inventory adjustments by OEMs.
Impact: PAT impact: 51% revenue drop in segment
Management view: Focusing on domestic growth and defense to offset export weakness.
Monitor: commodity
Trigger: Regulatory changes in labor code provisioning for past services.
Impact: PAT impact: ₹4.87 Cr
Management view: One-time provision completed in the current quarter.
Monitor: labor
Key quotes from recent conference calls
“I would say Q2 and Q3 should be similar. And hopefully by Q4, we should see an uptick. [Previous Q3 Revenue Outlook guidance]”
“And the third will be a forging, machining, potentially also casting facility... we have said up to INR3,000 crores. [Initiative: Odisha Project Expansion]”
“But clearly, 10%, 11% will definitely be more like closer to 18-20% if things go right, could be even more than that. I think let's look at 20%, 30%. [Initiative: Defense Vertical Diversification]”
“The tariff on aluminum into US is impacting the profitability and demand in this business... This includes a tariff cost impact of INR31 crores. [Risk (geopolitical): HIGH]”
Headline numbers from the latest earnings call
Revenue
₹2,084 Cr
Why: Performance was aided by strong growth in domestic automotive business and execution of defense order book despite continued destocking in North America truck market.
Sequential growth was driven by domestic segments and defense, offsetting a 51% decline in North American truck revenues compared to the previous year.
EBITDA
₹569 Cr
Why: Growth was driven by improved business in Oil and Gas and Aerospace, though margins were impacted by a ₹31 crore tariff cost.
EBITDA margins remained resilient at 27.3% despite significant tariff headwinds and labor code provisioning.
Other Highlights
• North American truck revenues down 51% vs Q3 last year.
• One-time impact of ₹48.7 Cr due to changes in labor code/gratuity.
• Consolidated cash of ₹2,300 Cr reported in previous quarter remains a strong liquidity buffer.
Sub-sector-specific signals from the latest concall — each with management's stated reason for the change
Defense Order Inflow (Quarter)
₹1,878 Cr
Why: Driven by CQB Carbine and EP orders.
North American Truck Revenue Change
-51%
Why: Continued destocking in the North American truck market.
Industrial Segment Growth (QoQ)
11%
Why: Improved business in Oil and Gas and Aerospace.
Tariff Cost Impact
₹31 Cr
Why: US tariffs on aluminum impacting profitability.
EU Operations Capacity Utilisation
60-65%
Why: Stable amidst patchy demand due to holiday season.
US Aluminum Capacity Utilisation
65%
Why: Benign quarter given sentiment in North American passenger car market.
JS Auto EBITDA Growth
39%
Why: Strong performance in the casting business subsidiary.
Net Debt to Equity
0.15
Why: Balance sheet continues to remain strong.
Aerospace Revenue (FY26E)
>₹350 Cr
Why: Strong growth rate expected to continue for 3-4 years.
Year-End Long-Term Debt Target
₹600 Cr
Why: Planned deleveraging by the end of the fiscal year.
Forward-looking targets from management for FY27
Revenue Growth Target
35%
Capex Plan
₹3000 Cr
30-40%
Defense business expected to be profitable equivalent to auto business on an EBITDA basis.
₹3,000 Cr
New growth phase in Odisha including forging, machining, and potentially casting.
Guidance Changes
Defense Revenue Share: 10-12% → 20-30%
Revenue, profit and margin growth rates
| Metric | YoY | 3Y CAGR | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +18% | +9% | Inflection Up |
| PAT (Net Profit) | -18% | +29% | Inflection Down |
| OPM | 17.0% | -100 bps | Stable |
The above analysis is parsed from publicly available earnings call transcripts. This is educational research only — not investment advice. Last updated Apr 18, 2026.
Based on publicly available financial data. This is educational research, not investment advice.
Bharat Forge Ltd's latest quarterly results (Mar 2026) show
Bharat Forge Ltd's profit is declining with an inflecting downward trend.
Bharat Forge Ltd's revenue growth trend is turning around (inflection up).
Bharat Forge Ltd's operating margin is stable.
Bharat Forge Ltd's long-term compounding rates
Bharat Forge Ltd's earnings growth is inflecting downward with weakening on a sequential basis.
Bharat Forge Ltd's trailing twelve month (TTM) performance
Bharat Forge Ltd appears significantly overvalued based on our fair value analysis.
Bharat Forge Ltd's current PE ratio is 80.6x.
Bharat Forge Ltd's current PE is 80.6x.
Bharat Forge Ltd's price-to-book ratio is 9.9x.
Bharat Forge Ltd is rated Weak with a fundamental score of 32.67/100. This score is calculated from objective financial metrics
Bharat Forge Ltd has a debt-to-equity ratio of N/A.
Bharat Forge Ltd's return ratios over recent years
Bharat Forge Ltd's operating cash flow is positive (FY2026).
Bharat Forge Ltd's current dividend yield is 0.43%.
Bharat Forge Ltd's shareholding pattern (Mar 2026)
Bharat Forge Ltd's promoter holding has remained stable recently.
Bharat Forge Ltd has been outperforming Nifty 500 for 12 consecutive weeks, indicating strong sustained outperformance.
Bharat Forge Ltd is an established outperformer with 12 weeks of consecutive Nifty 500 outperformance.
Bharat Forge Ltd has 7 key growth catalysts identified from recent earnings analysis
Bharat Forge Ltd has 3 key risks worth monitoring
In Q3 FY26, Bharat Forge Ltd's management highlighted
Bharat Forge Ltd's management has provided the following forward guidance for FY27
Bharat Forge Ltd's most important sub-sector-specific KPIs from the latest concall
Based on quantitative research signals, here is why Bharat Forge Ltd may be worth studying
Bharat Forge Ltd investment thesis summary:
Bharat Forge Ltd's forward outlook based on current data signals
The above FAQs are generated from publicly available earnings data and conference call transcripts. This is educational research only. Sector Alpha is not SEBI registered and does not provide investment advice.
