In , M M Forgings Ltd (Castings, Forgings & Fastners) is outperforming Nifty 500 with +15.9% relative strength. Fundamentals: Weak. On a 6-week streak.
Weekly presence in the outperformers list. Green = beating Nifty 500 by 10%+ that week.
Based on Q3 FY26 earnings • Updated Apr 18, 2026
What: Interest Savings: INR 25-30 crores
Impact: INR 25-30 crores PAT impact
“effectively we expect to save on both the fronts, ultimately bringing about INR25 crores to INR30 crores of savings.”
What: US EPA Norms: Strong demand rest of 2026
“new EPA norms will result in strong demand from the rest of 2026, up to second half of 2027.”
What: Machining Mix: Targeting increase from 53%
Impact: 7-8% better margins on new products
“Machining mix will go up. Almost all new orders are only for machining. Almost. Most new orders are for machining.”
What: US Export Revenue: INR 50-75 crores increase
“We would expect a INR75 crores increase in sales because of the return of exports, particularly the U.S. market.”
What: EV Subsidiary Sales: Customer tie-up in weeks
“We are working on a few customers and we expect these customers to be in the bag -- at least one of them to be in the bag in the next few weeks.”
What: Gross margin expansion of 3% YoY
“In fact, the gross margin went up by 3%. In fact, in FY '26, that is I'm talking about Q3 -- up to Q3 FY '26, it is at 56%”
Earnings deceleration risks from management commentary
Trigger: Geopolitical tensions involving Iran could disrupt fossil fuel supply chains to India.
Management view: Materials team is coordinating to switch sources and ensure quick recovery.
Monitor: geopolitical
Trigger: Red Sea crisis forcing shipments around the Cape of Good Hope.
Impact: PAT impact: Negative impact on EBITDA percentage
Management view: Costs are often passed to customers but mathematically dilute EBITDA margins.
Monitor: logistics
Trigger: Harsh working environments in forge shops make it difficult to retain staff against service sector jobs.
Management view: Installing 100-150 robots to improve productivity and reduce labor dependence.
Monitor: labor
Trigger: Effective tariff rates could fluctuate between 18% and 25% depending on final government print.
Management view: Management believes customers will continue to bear the tariff burden.
Monitor: regulatory
Trigger: Shifting debt to Euro-denominated synthetic swaps creates translation risk.
Management view: Underlying export exposure acts as a natural hedge.
Monitor: fx
Key quotes from recent conference calls
“We continue to invest in the current year and expect to close the year with a planned capex of around INR175 crores [Previous Capex guidance]”
“We expect the 16,000 ton press to deliver about INR300 crores of turnover, but that will take a few years to fill up. [Initiative: 16,500-ton Press Commissioning]”
“we expect to save about INR15 crores this year... on power costs by shifting over from grid power to EB power. [Initiative: Green Power Transition]”
“effectively we expect to save on both the fronts, ultimately bringing about INR25 crores to INR30 crores of savings. [Initiative: Interest Rate Swaps (IRS)]”
Headline numbers from the latest earnings call
Revenue
Not Disclosed
Why: Growth was primarily driven by improvement in volumes of about 3% in Q3 compared to Q3 FY '25, along with positive change in average sales realization.
Revenue growth was supported by volume recovery and improved realizations despite a volatile global environment.
Other Highlights
• Gross margin at 56.34% in Q3 FY26 vs 53.57% in Q3 FY25.
• Planned capex of INR 175 crores for the current year.
• Net debt stood at INR 1065 crores as of December 2025.
Sub-sector-specific signals from the latest concall — each with management's stated reason for the change
Machining Mix %
53%
Why: Reduction in machining of export products during the quarter.
Export Revenue %
30%
Capacity Utilisation
58,057 tons
CV Segment Mix %
75%
US Market Revenue Contribution
9%
Why: The US truck market tanked during FY26, leading to a significant drop from 16-17%.
Net Debt
INR 1065 Cr
Why: Reflects peak debt levels following heavy capex cycles.
Annual Interest Run Rate
INR 80 Cr
Why: High debt levels and prevailing interest rates.
Investment in Abhinava Rizel
INR 70 Cr
Why: Ongoing development of EV motor capabilities.
Planned Robot Installations
100-150 units
Why: Strategy to mitigate rising manpower costs and improve productivity.
Total Installed Capacity
150,000 tons
Why: Addition of 16,500-ton and 4,000-ton presses.
Forward-looking targets from management for FY 2027
Revenue Growth Target
20%
OPM Guidance
20%
Capex Plan
₹170 Cr
20% growth in FY27
REAFFIRMED
INR 150-170 crores
Completing 16,500-ton press and machining capacity
REAFFIRMED
Guidance Changes
Interest Cost: INR 80 crores run rate → INR 55 crores
Revenue, profit and margin growth rates
| Metric | YoY | 3Y CAGR | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +11% | +10% | Inflection Up |
| PAT (Net Profit) | -33% | +10% | Stable |
| OPM | 17.0% | -300 bps | Contracting |
The above analysis is parsed from publicly available earnings call transcripts. This is educational research only — not investment advice. Last updated Apr 18, 2026.
Based on publicly available financial data. This is educational research, not investment advice.
M M Forgings Ltd's latest quarterly results (Dec 2025) show
M M Forgings Ltd's profit is declining with an stable trend.
M M Forgings Ltd's revenue growth trend is turning around (inflection up).
M M Forgings Ltd's operating margin is contracting.
M M Forgings Ltd's long-term compounding rates
M M Forgings Ltd's earnings growth is stable with improving on a sequential basis.
M M Forgings Ltd's trailing twelve month (TTM) performance
M M Forgings Ltd appears significantly overvalued based on our fair value analysis.
M M Forgings Ltd's current PE ratio is 27.5x.
M M Forgings Ltd's current PE is 27.5x.
M M Forgings Ltd's price-to-book ratio is 2.6x.
M M Forgings Ltd is rated Weak with a fundamental score of 38.46/100. This score is calculated from objective financial metrics
M M Forgings Ltd has a debt-to-equity ratio of N/A.
M M Forgings Ltd's return ratios over recent years
M M Forgings Ltd's operating cash flow is positive (FY2025).
M M Forgings Ltd's current dividend yield is 0.81%.
M M Forgings Ltd's shareholding pattern (Mar 2026)
M M Forgings Ltd's promoter holding has remained stable recently.
M M Forgings Ltd has been outperforming Nifty 500 for 6 consecutive weeks, indicating building momentum.
M M Forgings Ltd is a re-entry — it briefly dropped off the outperformance list but has now returned. Re-entries can signal renewed strength.
M M Forgings Ltd has 6 key growth catalysts identified from recent earnings analysis
M M Forgings Ltd has 5 key risks worth monitoring
In Q3 FY26, M M Forgings Ltd's management highlighted
M M Forgings Ltd's management has provided the following forward guidance for FY 2027
M M Forgings Ltd's most important sub-sector-specific KPIs from the latest concall
Based on quantitative research signals, here is why M M Forgings Ltd may be worth studying
M M Forgings Ltd investment thesis summary:
M M Forgings Ltd's forward outlook based on current data signals
The above FAQs are generated from publicly available earnings data and conference call transcripts. This is educational research only. Sector Alpha is not SEBI registered and does not provide investment advice.
