Sector Alpha Week of 2026-07-24
Bitcoin · alt breadth · functional theme rotation

Crypto market analysis

Is crypto risk-on, Bitcoin-led or in alt season?

Bottom line

RISK OFF. Bitcoin is below its 200-day average by 11.5%; the liquid-alt basket has -19.5% over 90 days; 20.1% of 179 liquid alts are above their own 200-day averages; and alts show -2.3% relative strength versus Bitcoin. Treat isolated alt rallies as countertrend until Bitcoin reclaims the 200-day average and breadth clears 50%.

Regime
RISK OFF
canonical BTC / alt state
BTC vs 200-DMA
-12%
below trend · 2026-07-24
Alt breadth
20.1%
179 liquid alts
Alts vs BTC · 90d
-2.3%
relative strength
01 · price and participation together

Is risk spreading beyond Bitcoin?

Not yet — participation is still narrow: 20.1% of 179 liquid alts are above their own 200-day average. Bitcoin is below its 200-day average by 11.5%, and the alt basket's 90-day relative strength versus Bitcoin is -2.3%. Readings are as of 2026-07-24.

What the numbers say: Bitcoin’s 90-day return is -17%, the alt basket’s is -20%, and 20.1% of liquid alts are above their 200-day average.

13861592323062021-08-062022-08-052023-08-042024-07-262025-07-252026-07-24
BitcoinLiquid alt index

Weekly observations, rebased to 100 over the visible five-year window. The alt index is equal weighted; missing weeks break the line.

02 · current-date functional taxonomy

Which crypto themes are leading Bitcoin?

Lending ranks first of the 19 functional crypto themes at 70.4/100, with +20% excess versus Bitcoin over 90 days and 43% of its members above trend. Leadership /35 + participation /30 + persistence /20 + liquidity /15. It ranks research attention, not portfolio action, and every row prints the exact sum.

1
Lending
7/14 priced · FOLKS leads
31.4 + 12.9 + 15.5 + 10.6 = 70.4
+20%
90d vs BTC
43%
breadth
+14%
30d median
$179.1M
daily volume
2
Liquid Staking
8/12 priced · JTO leads
22.9 + 7.5 + 11.3 + 10.2 = 51.9
+7.8%
90d vs BTC
25%
breadth
+3.4%
30d median
$109.4M
daily volume
3
DEX
35/48 priced · HDX leads
21.1 + 5.8 + 11.4 + 10.6 = 48.9
+5.1%
90d vs BTC
19%
breadth
+3.6%
30d median
$170.6M
daily volume
4
Exchange Tokens
21/25 priced · WBT leads
19.5 + 2.9 + 10.0 + 12.2 = 44.7
+2.9%
90d vs BTC
10%
breadth
+0.1%
30d median
$1.2B
daily volume
5
Meme
46/94 priced · UTYA leads
15.9 + 5.3 + 10.0 + 12.1 = 43.2
-2.3%
90d vs BTC
18%
breadth
0.0%
30d median
$951.2M
daily volume
6
Oracle
6/8 priced · WIN leads
12.8 + 5.0 + 12.9 + 9.2 = 39.9
-6.8%
90d vs BTC
17%
breadth
+7.3%
30d median
$36.3M
daily volume
7
AI
72/110 priced · VELVET leads
13.6 + 6.0 + 6.9 + 12.0 = 38.5
-5.5%
90d vs BTC
20%
breadth
-7.8%
30d median
$920.5M
daily volume
8
DeFi
29/46 priced · FLIP leads
11.6 + 4.6 + 10.0 + 12.1 = 38.2
-8.5%
90d vs BTC
15%
breadth
0.0%
30d median
$948.0M
daily volume
9
DePIN
21/24 priced · GEOD leads
11.6 + 5.5 + 8.5 + 10.2 = 35.8
-8.5%
90d vs BTC
18%
breadth
-3.7%
30d median
$114.0M
daily volume
10
RWA
33/42 priced · ONDO leads
10.4 + 3.8 + 9.7 + 11.8 = 35.6
-10%
90d vs BTC
13%
breadth
-0.8%
30d median
$677.8M
daily volume
11
Layer 1
61/77 priced · WLD leads
9.5 + 2.0 + 9.2 + 14.4 = 35.1
-11%
90d vs BTC
7%
breadth
-2.0%
30d median
$13.5B
daily volume
12
Payments
11/13 priced · REAL leads
13.3 + 2.7 + 9.3 + 8.9 = 34.3
-5.9%
90d vs BTC
9%
breadth
-1.8%
30d median
$25.4M
daily volume
13
Privacy
24/27 priced · ZAMA leads
9.3 + 2.6 + 8.7 + 12.0 = 32.6
-12%
90d vs BTC
9%
breadth
-3.3%
30d median
$906.1M
daily volume
14
Layer 2
30/48 priced · TON leads
8.8 + 4.1 + 9.1 + 10.5 = 32.5
-12%
90d vs BTC
14%
breadth
-2.3%
30d median
$163.7M
daily volume
15
Gaming
34/43 priced · B3 leads
10.4 + 2.6 + 8.7 + 10.6 = 32.4
-10%
90d vs BTC
9%
breadth
-3.4%
30d median
$186.2M
daily volume
16
Wallets
7/10 priced · VCNT leads
10.2 + 0.0 + 9.7 + 8.7 = 28.6
-10%
90d vs BTC
0%
breadth
-0.8%
30d median
$20.3M
daily volume
17
NFT
7/9 priced · ID leads
1.2 + 4.3 + 10.0 + 9.2 = 24.7
-23%
90d vs BTC
14%
breadth
+0.0%
30d median
$34.6M
daily volume
18
Interoperability/Bridges
6/11 priced · DBR leads
0.6 + 0.0 + 9.1 + 9.9 = 19.6
-24%
90d vs BTC
0%
breadth
-2.2%
30d median
$79.0M
daily volume
19
Perps/Derivatives
7/12 priced · MNGO leads
0.9 + 0.0 + 7.8 + 9.9 = 18.6
-24%
90d vs BTC
0%
breadth
-5.6%
30d median
$83.4M
daily volume

Only sectors with at least five current assets carrying comparable 90-day return data are ranked. No stale sector row is carried forward.

03 · liquid asset-level tape

Where is leadership liquid enough to matter?

Velvet leads the liquid crypto tape on Bitcoin-relative strength at +366% over 90 days, out of 80 assets that clear the liquidity screen. This is the tape layer only: native activity belongs on the theme pages, because protocol coverage differs sharply by functional theme. Prices run through 2026-07-24.

CoinThemePrice7d30d90d1yRS vs BTC200-DMA30d vol30d median volume
Velvet VELVETAI$0.4467-14%-6.8%+349%+641%+366%Above549%$25.1M
Allora ALLOAI$0.5176+31%+30%+342%+360%Above228%$53.4M
SPACE ID IDNFT$0.0131+1.6%+384%+258%+4.8%+275%Above296%$0
Utya UTYAMeme$0.0380+56%+114%+219%+2,590%+236%Above249%$614.9K
SentismAI SENTISAI$0.2056+9.0%+86%+207%+224%Above66%$3.2M
KAITO KAITOAI$0.9572+10%+122%+137%-29%+154%Above131%$62.7M
Zerebro ZEREBROMeme$0.0354+6.4%-4.6%+105%+24%+123%Above158%$7.2M
Autonomi ANTStorage$0.1294+14%+254%+100%-53%+117%Above317%$0
OpenServ SERVAI$0.0312-16%-15%+88%-25%+105%Above145%$720.5K
Zama ZAMAPrivacy$0.0534+53%+73%+86%+104%94%$115.2M
Hydration HDXDEX$0.0060+7.2%+56%+77%-50%+95%Above50%$11.2K
Jito JTOLiquid Staking$0.6056+7.3%-11%+75%-69%+93%Above115%$27.7M
B3 (Base) B3Gaming$0.0005-17%-5.6%+72%-82%+89%Below131%$4.2M
Geodnet GEODDePIN$0.1951-2.3%-3.7%+59%+20%+76%Above51%$408.0K
Magma Finance MAGMADEX$0.3037+9.9%-25%+57%+75%Above293%$2.2M
Janction JCTDePIN$0.0042+10%-5.8%+57%+74%Above184%$3.8M
Meteora METDEX$1.05+1.1%+22%+55%+459%+72%Above39%$2.6K
Chainflip FLIPDeFi$0.2961+5.9%-4.7%+48%-37%+65%Above37%$49.6K
Ondo ONDORWA$0.3832+2.8%+22%+47%-62%+64%Above83%$115.6M
Law Blocks AI LBTAI$0.2961+0.1%+11%+47%+124%+64%Above39%$716.5K
Showing 20 of 80 assets
04 · what is measured and what is not

How should this page be used?

Use this page as a research queue, not an instruction set: it ranks where crypto attention is currently justified by price, participation and liquidity evidence. The regime is context and never a hidden addition to a theme score, each asset carries exactly one canonical functional theme, and 4 named datasets are unavailable rather than inferred. Evidence runs through 2026-07-24.

Market contextBTC trend, alt breadth, alt-vs-BTC relative strength and the liquid-universe count set the regime. The regime is context, not a hidden addition to theme scores.
Theme membershipEach asset receives one canonical functional theme. Pegged, wrapped and receipt tokens are excluded.
FreshnessPrice and regime: 2026-07-24. Market-cap snapshot: 2026-07-04.
Decision useScores rank what deserves research. They are not entry, exit, sizing or leverage instructions.
Unavailable, therefore not inferred: Market-cap data is a dated universe snapshot; historical circulating supply and FDV are not held. Today’s top-1,000 universe and today’s category tags are projected backward, so long history contains survivorship and taxonomy hindsight. Funding, open interest, liquidations, exchange flows, unlocks and developer activity are not available and are not inferred. Network fees and protocol revenue are operating evidence, not automatic token-holder cash flow.
Questions the page should answer directly

Crypto analysis FAQs

These 14 answers cover the questions this page can settle from data it holds — what the category is, how the score is built, what the coverage gaps are, and what would change the read. Every answer below is also present in the page’s FAQ schema and in its plain-text rendition. None of them is a recommendation.

Is crypto risk-on now?

RISK OFF as of 2026-07-24. Bitcoin is below its 200-day average; alt breadth is 20.1%; and the liquid-alt basket’s 90-day relative strength versus Bitcoin is -2.3%.

Is this Bitcoin-led or alt season?

RISK OFF is the canonical state. Alt season requires Bitcoin risk-on plus broad alt participation; a narrow alt rally with breadth below 50% is not called alt season.

How many liquid altcoins are above the 200-day average?

20.1% of 179 liquid eligible altcoins are above their 200-day averages as of 2026-07-24.

Which crypto theme ranks strongest now?

Lending ranks first at 70.36/100: 31.4 + 12.9 + 15.5 + 10.6 = 70.4. Its median 90-day excess versus Bitcoin is +19.9% with 42.9% breadth.

What does alt breadth mean?

Alt breadth is the share of the liquid eligible altcoin universe trading above its own 200-day moving average. It measures participation, not index return.

Why benchmark crypto themes against Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is the opportunity-cost benchmark for crypto risk. A sector can rise in dollars yet destroy relative capital if Bitcoin rises faster.

How is the alt index built?

It is a chain-linked equal-weight index of liquid non-stable altcoins. Equal weighting prevents Bitcoin-sized assets from hiding broad weakness.

Are stablecoins included?

No. Stablecoins, wrapped assets, liquid-staking receipts and tokenized securities are excluded because they do not have independent price discovery.

How are illiquid coins handled?

The regime and public sector ranks require liquid current data. Asset pages still show thin names, but the score labels sub-$5 million median daily volume as research-only.

Why can a sector rise while breadth falls?

A small number of large or fast-rising tokens can lift a sector index while most members remain below their trend. The page therefore reads return and breadth together.

Does Sector Alpha have funding rates or open interest?

Not in the current public research store. Funding, open interest, liquidations and unlock schedules are named as unavailable and are never inferred from spot price.

Does crypto have a P/E or PEG ratio?

No company-style P/E or PEG is used. Crypto pages compare network fees, protocol revenue, token-liquidity and BTC-relative price evidence with explicit token-accrual caveats.

How often is the crypto MLA page updated?

The page is rebuilt every weekday, and the CDN cache is invalidated when that rebuild publishes. Price and regime evidence currently run through 2026-07-24; market-cap metadata is separately dated 2026-07-04.

Why can dates differ across crypto metrics?

Spot prices, derived technicals, market-cap snapshots, protocol activity and chain activity come from separate refresh jobs. The page shows each freshness date rather than pretending they share one as-of date.

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