# Crypto market analysis — Bitcoin, breadth and theme rotation

> RISK OFF. Bitcoin is below its 200-day average by 11.5%; the liquid-alt basket has -19.5% over 90 days; 20.1% of 179 liquid alts are above their own 200-day averages; and alts show -2.3% relative strength versus Bitcoin.

Decision read: Treat isolated alt rallies as countertrend until Bitcoin reclaims the 200-day average and breadth clears 50%.

## Agent research brief

- Market state: RISK OFF: Bitcoin is -11.5% versus its 200-day average.
- Participation: 20.1% of 179 liquid alts are above trend. A low reading means a few rallies do not constitute alt season.
- Relative opportunity: The alt basket is -2.3% versus Bitcoin over 90 days; Bitcoin remains the opportunity-cost benchmark.
- Portfolio implication: Preserve selectivity. Research relative leaders, but do not mistake isolated strength for permission to broaden crypto risk.

Data as of 2026-07-24. Market-cap snapshot 2026-07-04.

## Current market regime

- Regime: RISK OFF
- Bitcoin vs 200-day average: -12%
- Bitcoin 90-day return: -17%
- Alt breadth: 20.1% of 179 liquid assets
- Alt relative strength vs Bitcoin: -2.3%

## Crypto theme rotation ranking

1. Lending: 70.36/100 — 31.4 + 12.9 + 15.5 + 10.6 = 70.4; 90d vs BTC +20%; breadth 42.9%; /mla/crypto/sector/lending
2. Liquid Staking: 51.94/100 — 22.9 + 7.5 + 11.3 + 10.2 = 51.9; 90d vs BTC +7.8%; breadth 25.0%; /mla/crypto/sector/liquid-staking
3. DEX: 48.91/100 — 21.1 + 5.8 + 11.4 + 10.6 = 48.9; 90d vs BTC +5.1%; breadth 19.4%; /mla/crypto/sector/dex
4. Exchange Tokens: 44.68/100 — 19.5 + 2.9 + 10.0 + 12.2 = 44.7; 90d vs BTC +2.9%; breadth 9.5%; /mla/crypto/sector/exchange-tokens
5. Meme: 43.23/100 — 15.9 + 5.3 + 10.0 + 12.1 = 43.2; 90d vs BTC -2.3%; breadth 17.6%; /mla/crypto/sector/meme
6. Oracle: 39.89/100 — 12.8 + 5.0 + 12.9 + 9.2 = 39.9; 90d vs BTC -6.8%; breadth 16.7%; /mla/crypto/sector/oracle
7. AI: 38.55/100 — 13.6 + 6.0 + 6.9 + 12.0 = 38.5; 90d vs BTC -5.5%; breadth 20.0%; /mla/crypto/sector/ai
8. DeFi: 38.22/100 — 11.6 + 4.6 + 10.0 + 12.1 = 38.2; 90d vs BTC -8.5%; breadth 15.4%; /mla/crypto/sector/defi
9. DePIN: 35.76/100 — 11.6 + 5.5 + 8.5 + 10.2 = 35.8; 90d vs BTC -8.5%; breadth 18.2%; /mla/crypto/sector/depin
10. RWA: 35.57/100 — 10.4 + 3.8 + 9.7 + 11.8 = 35.6; 90d vs BTC -10%; breadth 12.5%; /mla/crypto/sector/rwa
11. Layer 1: 35.08/100 — 9.5 + 2.0 + 9.2 + 14.4 = 35.1; 90d vs BTC -11%; breadth 6.6%; /mla/crypto/sector/layer-1
12. Payments: 34.28/100 — 13.3 + 2.7 + 9.3 + 8.9 = 34.3; 90d vs BTC -5.9%; breadth 9.1%; /mla/crypto/sector/payments
13. Privacy: 32.58/100 — 9.3 + 2.6 + 8.7 + 12.0 = 32.6; 90d vs BTC -12%; breadth 8.7%; /mla/crypto/sector/privacy
14. Layer 2: 32.53/100 — 8.8 + 4.1 + 9.1 + 10.5 = 32.5; 90d vs BTC -12%; breadth 13.8%; /mla/crypto/sector/layer-2
15. Gaming: 32.36/100 — 10.4 + 2.6 + 8.7 + 10.6 = 32.4; 90d vs BTC -10%; breadth 8.8%; /mla/crypto/sector/gaming
16. Wallets: 28.56/100 — 10.2 + 0.0 + 9.7 + 8.7 = 28.6; 90d vs BTC -10%; breadth 0.0%; /mla/crypto/sector/wallets
17. NFT: 24.7/100 — 1.2 + 4.3 + 10.0 + 9.2 = 24.7; 90d vs BTC -23%; breadth 14.3%; /mla/crypto/sector/nft
18. Interoperability/Bridges: 19.64/100 — 0.6 + 0.0 + 9.1 + 9.9 = 19.6; 90d vs BTC -24%; breadth 0.0%; /mla/crypto/sector/interoperability-bridges
19. Perps/Derivatives: 18.61/100 — 0.9 + 0.0 + 7.8 + 9.9 = 18.6; 90d vs BTC -24%; breadth 0.0%; /mla/crypto/sector/perps-derivatives

## Current asset leaders

- Velvet (VELVET) — 90d +349%; RS vs BTC +366%; median daily volume $25.1M
- Allora (ALLO) — 90d +342%; RS vs BTC +360%; median daily volume $53.4M
- SPACE ID (ID) — 90d +258%; RS vs BTC +275%; median daily volume $0
- Utya (UTYA) — 90d +219%; RS vs BTC +236%; median daily volume $614.9K
- SentismAI (SENTIS) — 90d +207%; RS vs BTC +224%; median daily volume $3.2M
- KAITO (KAITO) — 90d +137%; RS vs BTC +154%; median daily volume $62.7M
- Zerebro (ZEREBRO) — 90d +105%; RS vs BTC +123%; median daily volume $7.2M
- Autonomi (ANT) — 90d +100%; RS vs BTC +117%; median daily volume $0
- OpenServ (SERV) — 90d +88%; RS vs BTC +105%; median daily volume $720.5K
- Zama (ZAMA) — 90d +86%; RS vs BTC +104%; median daily volume $115.2M
- Hydration (HDX) — 90d +77%; RS vs BTC +95%; median daily volume $11.2K
- Jito (JTO) — 90d +75%; RS vs BTC +93%; median daily volume $27.7M
- B3 (Base) (B3) — 90d +72%; RS vs BTC +89%; median daily volume $4.2M
- Geodnet (GEOD) — 90d +59%; RS vs BTC +76%; median daily volume $408.0K
- Magma Finance (MAGMA) — 90d +57%; RS vs BTC +75%; median daily volume $2.2M
- Janction (JCT) — 90d +57%; RS vs BTC +74%; median daily volume $3.8M
- Meteora (MET) — 90d +55%; RS vs BTC +72%; median daily volume $2.6K
- Chainflip (FLIP) — 90d +48%; RS vs BTC +65%; median daily volume $49.6K
- Ondo (ONDO) — 90d +47%; RS vs BTC +64%; median daily volume $115.6M
- Law Blocks AI (LBT) — 90d +47%; RS vs BTC +64%; median daily volume $716.5K
- Injective (INJ) — 90d +46%; RS vs BTC +63%; median daily volume $111.1M
- MimbleWimbleCoin (MWC) — 90d +44%; RS vs BTC +61%; median daily volume $1.6K
- ZIGChain (ZIG) — 90d +42%; RS vs BTC +59%; median daily volume $2.5M
- FOLKS (FOLKS) — 90d +36%; RS vs BTC +54%; median daily volume $1.0M
- Zcash (ZEC) — 90d +36%; RS vs BTC +53%; median daily volume $358.4M
- Baseline (B) — 90d +35%; RS vs BTC +53%; median daily volume $10.2M
- BUILDon (B) — 90d +35%; RS vs BTC +53%; median daily volume $10.2M
- Worldcoin (WLD) — 90d +34%; RS vs BTC +52%; median daily volume $188.1M
- COINDEPO (COINDEPO) — 90d +33%; RS vs BTC +50%; median daily volume $1.7M
- JUST (JST) — 90d +30%; RS vs BTC +48%; median daily volume $25.5M

## Data limitations

- Market-cap data is a dated universe snapshot; historical circulating supply and FDV are not held.
- Today’s top-1,000 universe and today’s category tags are projected backward, so long history contains survivorship and taxonomy hindsight.
- Funding, open interest, liquidations, exchange flows, unlocks and developer activity are not available and are not inferred.
- Network fees and protocol revenue are operating evidence, not automatic token-holder cash flow.

## FAQs

### Is crypto risk-on now?

RISK OFF as of 2026-07-24. Bitcoin is below its 200-day average; alt breadth is 20.1%; and the liquid-alt basket’s 90-day relative strength versus Bitcoin is -2.3%.

### Is this Bitcoin-led or alt season?

RISK OFF is the canonical state. Alt season requires Bitcoin risk-on plus broad alt participation; a narrow alt rally with breadth below 50% is not called alt season.

### How many liquid altcoins are above the 200-day average?

20.1% of 179 liquid eligible altcoins are above their 200-day averages as of 2026-07-24.

### Which crypto theme ranks strongest now?

Lending ranks first at 70.36/100: 31.4 + 12.9 + 15.5 + 10.6 = 70.4. Its median 90-day excess versus Bitcoin is +19.9% with 42.9% breadth.

### What does alt breadth mean?

Alt breadth is the share of the liquid eligible altcoin universe trading above its own 200-day moving average. It measures participation, not index return.

### Why benchmark crypto themes against Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is the opportunity-cost benchmark for crypto risk. A sector can rise in dollars yet destroy relative capital if Bitcoin rises faster.

### How is the alt index built?

It is a chain-linked equal-weight index of liquid non-stable altcoins. Equal weighting prevents Bitcoin-sized assets from hiding broad weakness.

### Are stablecoins included?

No. Stablecoins, wrapped assets, liquid-staking receipts and tokenized securities are excluded because they do not have independent price discovery.

### How are illiquid coins handled?

The regime and public sector ranks require liquid current data. Asset pages still show thin names, but the score labels sub-$5 million median daily volume as research-only.

### Why can a sector rise while breadth falls?

A small number of large or fast-rising tokens can lift a sector index while most members remain below their trend. The page therefore reads return and breadth together.

### Does Sector Alpha have funding rates or open interest?

Not in the current public research store. Funding, open interest, liquidations and unlock schedules are named as unavailable and are never inferred from spot price.

### Does crypto have a P/E or PEG ratio?

No company-style P/E or PEG is used. Crypto pages compare network fees, protocol revenue, token-liquidity and BTC-relative price evidence with explicit token-accrual caveats.

### How often is the crypto MLA page updated?

The page is rebuilt every weekday, and the CDN cache is invalidated when that rebuild publishes. Price and regime evidence currently run through 2026-07-24; market-cap metadata is separately dated 2026-07-04.

### Why can dates differ across crypto metrics?

Spot prices, derived technicals, market-cap snapshots, protocol activity and chain activity come from separate refresh jobs. The page shows each freshness date rather than pretending they share one as-of date.

### Which crypto themes are beating Bitcoin?

4 of the 19 crypto themes tracked here are ahead of Bitcoin over 90 days. Lending leads at +19.9%, followed by Liquid Staking at +7.8% and DEX at +5.1%. Bitcoin is itself below its 200-day average, so being ahead of it does not mean rising.