Sector Alpha Week of 2026-07-24
Sector Alpha — machine-written from the numbers · Data as of 2026-07-24

Nelcast Ltd

NELCAST
Castings, Forgings & Fastners

Nelcast Ltd's earnings have outrun its stock. EPS grew +29.8% in a year against a −13.2% price move.

The sharpest disagreement: annual EPS moved +29.8% against a −13.2% price move — the market has not yet caught up with the delivery.

The price is in a confirmed uptrend (14 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 48th percentile of its own 10-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read improving — profit +7.1% year on year, and 156% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether the price catches up with earnings that have already moved.

Stage
Turning around
partial read
Price
₹128
−13.2% 1Y
P/E
24.1×
48th pctile
of its own 10-year range
Revenue (Mar 26)
₹368 Cr
+11.5% YoY
Profit (Mar 26)
₹15.0 Cr
+7.1% YoY
Operating margin
9.0%
flat YoY
ROCE
11%
FY26
ROIC
8.0%
vs WACC 12.0% → −4.0 pp
Cash conversion
156%
of profit, last 3 FY
Unverified figures: Some figures on this page come from a second financial-data feed that could not be cross-checked against the primary source — the two do not share enough overlapping reported history to compare. They are drawn, because they are the only evidence there is, and every section carrying one is marked unverified. PEG is the exception: the quarterly curve is not drawn at all. PEG asks what is being paid for growth — both sides of that division come from the source that could not be checked, so it is withheld instead of marked.
01 · Price story

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Nelcast Ltd trades at ₹128, in a confirmed uptrend and 14 weeks into that stage. That is +0.2% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 55% of a 52-week range of ₹89 to ₹160. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (4 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 14 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹128 it trades +0.2% versus its 200-day average and sits at 55% of its 52-week range (₹89–₹160).

Jul 26: ₹128 Weekly closing price (₹) with 50- and 200-day averages; shaded bands mark the price stage (grey base, green advance, amber top, red decline). 3-year window.
+0.2% versus the 200-day line, week 14 of stage 2
Price50-day avg200-day avg
S2S4S2S4S2₹186₹157₹129₹101₹72.6₹128₹128Jul 23Apr 24Feb 25Nov 25Jul 26
S2S4S2S4S2₹186₹157₹129₹101₹72.6₹128₹128Jul 23Feb 25Jul 26
Beating or trailing, week by week since 2016 Each cell is one week from 2016 to now (546 weeks): the stock's trailing 13-week return minus the NIFTY 500's, green ahead / red behind (±25% ramp). Grey cells are the 13-week warm-up or weeks where the NIFTY 500 reading is not held.
trailing 13-week return vs the NIFTY 500
Mar 16Jul 26

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.3 years the stock moved +118% while the NIFTY 500 moved +274% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (4 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-25) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 48th percentile of its own range.

02 · Valuation

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Nelcast Ltd trades at 24.1× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (48th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 24.6×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 24.1× is mid-range by its own standards (48th percentile), against a long-run median of 24.6× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

P/E 24.1× vs a 24.6× long-run median P/E, weekly (left axis); earnings per share, trailing twelve months, weekly (right axis). 10.4-year window; loss-period spikes above 51× shown pinned at the top. The eps (ttm) bars are red where the reading is lower than the quarter before.
mid-range by its own standards (48th percentile)
P/EMedianEPS (TTM) (quarterly)
54.5×₹6.042.3×₹4.530.1×₹3.017.9×₹1.55.7×₹0.0×24.10×₹6Mar 16Oct 18Jun 21Jan 24Jul 26
54.5×₹6.042.3×₹4.530.1×₹3.017.9×₹1.55.7×₹0.0×24.10×₹6Mar 16Jun 21Jul 26
P/E
24.1×
48th percentile of 10y

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +29.8% against a −13.2% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +7.9%/yr price move, ~+39.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−32.0 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +6.9%/yr price move, ~+4.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+2.6 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources do not share enough overlapping reported history to be compared. A figure nobody could check is not used to price growth — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

03 · Stage: Turning around

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Nelcast Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −41.2% at the trough to +7.1% off a 5-quarter-old trough (single-quarter readings), ROCE holding at 11.0%. The read is built from 10 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Three growth curves, twelve quarters Year-on-year growth of trailing-twelve-month revenue (left axis), profit and EPS (right axis — they swing far wider), % at each quarter-end. Where the trailing-twelve-month history is short, the curve falls back to single-quarter year-on-year growth — noisier, and the classifier smooths and caps base-effect spikes before reading. Base-effect spikes shown pinned (▲). A missing point means that reading is not held for the quarter.
the trajectory the stage is read from
RevenueProfitEPS
15%330%8.6%221%2.0%112%−4.6%0.0%−11%−107%%%11.5%7.1%30.1%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
15%330%8.6%221%2.0%112%−4.6%0.0%−11%−107%%%11.5%7.1%30.1%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
ROCE Annual readings — the quarterly balance-sheet pieces this curve needs are not held for this stock, so the returns read moves once a year and carries less weight in the call.
the return curve, annual readings
ROCE
11.1%10.8%10.5%10.2%9.92%%11%FY23FY24FY26
11.1%10.8%10.5%10.2%9.92%%11%FY23FY24FY26
Revenue growth
Flat
latest +11.5% · span −9.4% to +13.4%
Profit growth
Rolling over
latest +7.1% · span −76.9% to +100.0%
ROCE
Stuck low
latest 11.0% · span 10.0%–11.0%

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

Growth, year by year: revenue +6.1% in FY26, profit +29.7% Year-over-year growth per fiscal year, %: revenue (left axis); net profit and EPS (right axis — profit growth swings far wider). Zero line drawn.
Revenue YoYProfit YoYEPS YoY
57%129%33%75%8.5%20%−16%−35%−41%−90%%%6.1%29.7%FY16FY21FY26
57%129%33%75%8.5%20%−16%−35%−41%−90%%%6.1%29.7%FY16FY21FY26
TTM growth by quarter Trailing-twelve-month growth versus the year-ago TTM, per quarter, %: revenue (left axis); profit and EPS (right axis). The acceleration read compares the last 4 quarters (+6.2%) with the last 8 annualized (+2.5%).
revenue accelerating, profit accelerating
Revenue TTM YoYProfit TTM YoYEPS TTM YoY
7.1%71%3.8%40%0.5%8.0%−2.9%−24%−6.2%−55%%%6.2%26.3%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
7.1%71%3.8%40%0.5%8.0%−2.9%−24%−6.2%−55%%%6.2%26.3%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
Compound annual growth rate (%) Compound annual growth rate over each window, %. Revenue, profit and EPS from fiscal-year figures; share price is the price CAGR over the same spans. A dash = that window is not held, or the base was a loss.
1yr3yr5yr10yr
Revenue+6.1%+1.7%+16.6%+9.0%
Profit+29.7%+17.0%+39.8%+4.1%
EPS+29.8%+17.7%+39.9%+4.3%
Share price−13.2%+11.1%+7.9%+6.9%
Revenue YoY (Mar 26)
+11.5%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Profit YoY (Mar 26)
+7.1%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Revenue 10y
9.0%
long-run compound pace

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

04 · 4-Factor Sector Score

4-Factor Sector Score

49.6/100 — rank 13 of 19 in Castings, Forgings & Fastners · 83% evidence confidence

Nelcast Ltd scores 49.6 out of 100 against the 19 companies it is compared with in Castings, Forgings & Fastners, ranking 13. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 21.7 + 12.8 + 11.8 + 3.3 = 49.6. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

05 · Revenue

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Nelcast Ltd reported ₹368 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +11.5% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 9.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,328 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,329 Cr.

Nelcast Ltd reported ₹368 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +11.5% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 9.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,328 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,329 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,328 Cr (+6.1% on the year), capping 10 years at 9.0% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹368 Cr, +11.5% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

FY26 revenue ₹1,328 Cr (+6.1% YoY) Revenue bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 11-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
9.0% a year over 10 years
RevenueYoY growth
1.4k57%1.1k33%7178.5%359−16%0−41%₹ Cr%₹1,3286.1%FY16FY21FY26
1.4k57%1.1k33%7178.5%359−16%0−41%₹ Cr%₹1,3286.1%FY16FY21FY26
Mar 26: ₹368 Cr (+11.5% YoY) Quarterly revenue bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
2nd straight quarter of growth
Revenue (quarterly)YoY growth
39715%2988.6%1992.0%99−4.6%0−11%₹ Cr%₹36811.5%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
39715%2988.6%1992.0%99−4.6%0−11%₹ Cr%₹36811.5%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +6.5% growth against the decade's 9.0% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +6.2% over the last 4 quarters against +2.5%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +26.3% vs −6.6%/yr — accelerating.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 9.0% this quarter (+0.0 pp YoY).

06 · Operating margin

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Nelcast Ltd's operating margin is 9.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 6.0% to 11.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Nelcast Ltd's operating margin is 9.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 6.0% to 11.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 9.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 6.0%–11.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −0.3 pp year on year while gross margin went −1.1 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

FY26: 8.0% Operating margin by fiscal year, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). 13-year window.
within a 6.0–11.0% band over 13 years
operating marginYoY change (pp)
11%3.4%9.9%1.9%8.5%0.5%7.0%−0.9%5.6%−2.4%%%8%1%FY14FY20FY26
11%3.4%9.9%1.9%8.5%0.5%7.0%−0.9%5.6%−2.4%%%8%1%FY14FY20FY26
Mar 26: 9.0% operating margin (+0.0 pp YoY) Quarterly operating margin, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). Last 12 quarters. Operating profit as a share of revenue, per quarter.
Operating marginYoY change (pp)
10%4.6%8.9%2.5%7.5%0.5%6.0%−1.5%4.6%−3.6%%%9%0%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
10%4.6%8.9%2.5%7.5%0.5%6.0%−1.5%4.6%−3.6%%%9%0%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +7.1% in the latest quarter.

07 · Net profit

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Nelcast Ltd earned ₹15.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +7.1% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹48.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 4.1%. That is 4.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹14.0 Cr.

Nelcast Ltd earned ₹15.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +7.1% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹48.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 4.1%. That is 4.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹14.0 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹15.0 Cr, +7.1% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹48.0 Cr (+29.7%), and the 10-year compound rate is 4.1%.

FY26 profit ₹48.0 Cr (+29.7% YoY) Net profit bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 11-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
4.1% a year over 10 years
Net profitYoY growth
58129%4475%2920%15−35%0−90%₹ Cr%₹4829.7%FY16FY21FY26
58129%4475%2920%15−35%0−90%₹ Cr%₹4829.7%FY16FY21FY26
Mar 26: ₹15.0 Cr (+7.1% YoY) Quarterly net profit bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
2nd straight quarter of growth
Net profit (quarterly)YoY growth
28460%21316%14172%727%0−117%₹ Cr%₹157.1%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
28460%21316%14172%727%0−117%₹ Cr%₹157.1%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +11.5% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +43.4% vs revenue +6.5%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 156% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

08 · Cash flow — the router

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 156% of Nelcast Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹92.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹48.0 Cr of profit. After ₹16.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹76.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹92.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹48.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹76.0 Cr after ₹16.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 156% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

FY26: CFO ₹92.0 Cr vs profit ₹48.0 Cr Operating cash flow and net profit by fiscal year, ₹ Cr; the line is free cash flow (CFO minus capital spending). 11-year window, annual resolution. FY22 reflects an acquisition year — point shown clipped.
156% of 3-year profit arrived as cash
Operating cashNet profitFree cash
1177227−18−63₹ Cr₹92₹48₹76FY16FY21FY26
1177227−18−63₹ Cr₹92₹48₹76FY16FY21FY26
FY26: CFO = 192% of profit (three-year rate 156%) Operating cash as a share of net profit, per fiscal year, % (line). Dashed line = 100% — every unit of profit arriving as cash; outlier years shown pinned.
Conversion100%
331%217%104%−10%−124%%192%FY16FY21FY26
331%217%104%−10%−124%%192%FY16FY21FY26

Why conversion sits at 156%: the cash cycle tightened 34 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: a 51-day cycle and ₹107 Cr of building.

09 · Where the cash goes

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Nelcast Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 51 days in FY26, down from 85 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹107 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹1,328 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹3.6 Cr, so roughly ₹186 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 98 days, inventory at 120 days — roughly 3.9 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 51 days, tighter than FY21's 85.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 120 days to sell; customers pay about 98 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 167 days — netting out to the 51-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹1,328 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹3.6 Cr — so the 51-day loop keeps roughly ₹186 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

FY26: a 51-day cash cycle Debtor days, inventory days, payable days and the cash conversion cycle by fiscal year. 13-year window.
−34 days vs FY21
Cash cycleInventory daysDebtor daysPayable days
2071631197531days51d120d98d167dFY14FY17FY20FY23FY26
2071631197531days51d120d98d167dFY14FY20FY26

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹107 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹76.0 Cr of depreciation — building somewhat ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

FY26: capex ₹16.0 Cr, work-in-progress ₹0.0 Cr Capital spending per fiscal year, ₹ Cr (bars); capital work-in-progress, ₹ Cr (line). Quarterly capital-spending history is not held for India — annual is the honest resolution.
steady investment
CapexWork-in-progress
17913490450₹ Cr₹16₹0FY16FY18FY21FY23FY26
17913490450₹ Cr₹16₹0FY16FY21FY26

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 11% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −4.0 pp.

10 · Return on capital

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.⚠ unverified

Nelcast Ltd earns a ROCE of 11% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 5% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −4.0 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 3.6% net margin on 1.11× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 11%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 5% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 3.6% net margin × 1.11× asset turns × 2.01× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 8.0% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 8.0% − 12.0% = a −4.0 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

FY26: ROCE 11% Return on capital employed by fiscal year, % (line); ROIC by fiscal year, % (line). 13-year window, dips included. Dashed line = the 12.0% cost of capital used on this page.
the climb back from FY21's 5%
ROCEROIC (annual)WACC
15%12%9.2%6.3%3.5%%11%8.1%FY14FY20FY26
15%12%9.2%6.3%3.5%%11%8.1%FY14FY20FY26
Q4 FY26: ROCE 12.2% (TTM) vs WACC 12.0% Trailing-twelve-month ROCE and ROIC, per quarter, %; dashed line = the cost of capital. Last 12 quarters, put on a trailing-twelve-month basis and anchored to the annual figure.
ROCE (TTM)ROIC (TTM)WACC
13%11%8.7%6.7%4.6%%12.2%7.9%Q1 FY24Q2 FY25Q4 FY26
13%11%8.7%6.7%4.6%%12.2%7.9%Q1 FY24Q2 FY25Q4 FY26

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.43.

11 · Debt

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.⚠ unverified

Nelcast Ltd carries total debt of ₹257 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹599 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.43. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.63 in FY22 to 0.43 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹257 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹599 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.43. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.63 (FY22) to 0.43 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

FY26: debt ₹257 Cr at 0.43× equity Total debt by fiscal year, ₹ Cr (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). 5-year window.
Total debtDebt-to-equity
3550.67×2660.60×1780.54×890.48×00.41×₹ Cr×₹2570.43×FY22FY24FY26
3550.67×2660.60×1780.54×890.48×00.41×₹ Cr×₹2570.43×FY22FY24FY26
Mar 26: debt ₹257 Cr, debt-to-equity 0.43 Total debt per quarter, ₹ Cr (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). Last 12 quarters. India reports the full balance sheet half-yearly, so the intervening quarter carries the prior reading forward.
Total debt (quarterly)Debt-to-equity
3550.67×2660.60×1780.54×890.48×00.41×₹ Cr×₹2570.43×Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
3550.67×2660.60×1780.54×890.48×00.41×₹ Cr×₹2570.43×Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: the register is quiet.

12 · Ownership

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Nelcast Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Domestic institutions moved −0.4 points over the same window, to 0.1%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −0.4 points over 8 quarters to 0.4%; Domestic institutions: −0.4 points over 8 quarters to 0.1%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 74.9%.

Fiscal-year ends: promoters +0.0 pts from Mar 24 to Mar 26 Shareholding at each fiscal-year end (March quarter), % of the company. 3 year-ends held.
PromotersForeign inst.Domestic inst.Public
81%59%37%16%−6.0%%74.9%0.4%0.1%24.6%Mar 24Mar 25Mar 26
81%59%37%16%−6.0%%74.9%0.4%0.1%24.6%Mar 24Mar 25Mar 26
A quiet register: no holder moved a full point in two years Shareholding by holder class, % of the company, quarterly, last 13 quarters.
PromotersForeign inst.Domestic inst.Public
81%59%37%16%−6.0%%74.9%0.4%0.1%24.6%Jun 23Dec 24Jun 26
81%59%37%16%−6.0%%74.9%0.4%0.1%24.6%Jun 23Dec 24Jun 26

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

13 · Safety line

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Nelcast Ltd: the Z-score reads 3.14. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 3.14 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 3.14.

Related companies · same sector · Castings, Forgings & Fastners Every company is compared on the shape of its own curves, not static ratios. The Revenue, EPS and ROCE columns each draw that company's last 12 quarters as a mini line of the ACTUAL level (trailing-twelve-month revenue and EPS, and the ROCE itself) — so a line that climbs is a business getting bigger, a line that sinks is one shrinking. The colour tracks the same line: green when it is rising or steadily healthy, amber when it is rolling over from a high (still elevated but turning down), red when it is falling, grey when flat or stuck. Colour and direction always agree — a green line never points down. The ROCE curve is the return on capital (annual readings for peers, so a slightly coarser line than the quarterly one at the top of this page). The Stage column then runs the same 12-quarter trajectory classifier used at the top of the page on each company and names where it sits. What lands a company in each bucket: CONSISTENT — growth stays positive across the window and returns are healthy (ROCE ≥ 15%, or ROE ≥ 12% for lenders); IMPROVING — profit or EPS fell into real decline, bottomed a few quarters back, and has climbed back to positive and held there; TURNING AROUND — the same kind of trough but more recent, with the latest quarters just lifting off it (an early, unconfirmed turn); TOPPING OUT — growth is still positive but decelerating hard from its own peak while returns have stopped rising; DETERIORATING — two or more growth curves are shrinking (latest below zero) and staying there, not one soft quarter; MIXED — the curves genuinely disagree, or no clean majority, so no single word fits; NO READ — fewer than eight usable quarters. It is a like-for-like read of every company against its own past, not a ranking against the group.
CompanyP/EMkt capRevenueEPSROCEStage
Nelcast Ltd this page24.1×₹1,170 CrTurning around
Bharat Forge Ltd91.1×₹1L CrMixed
Sona BLW Precision Forgings Ltd61.5×₹44,707 CrMixed
CIE Automotive India Ltd17.5×₹15,696 CrTurning around
Happy Forgings Ltd51.0×₹15,247 CrConsistent
Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd92.0×₹10,579 CrDeteriorating
Kennametal India Ltd52.2×₹6,116 CrDeteriorating
Balu Forge Industries Ltd20.3×₹5,264 CrMixed
Uniparts India Ltd19.3×₹3,113 CrMixed
Steelcast Ltd35.9×₹3,103 CrTopping out
Sundaram Clayton Ltd₹3,005 CrNo read
M M Forgings Ltd27.2×₹2,664 CrDeteriorating
Amic Forging Ltd70.5×₹1,992 CrNo read
Amic Forging Ltd58.9×₹1,485 Cr
Gala Precision Engineering Ltd40.4×₹1,469 CrTurning around
Alicon Castalloy Ltd26.6×₹1,044 CrMixed
Tirupati Forge Ltd151.0×₹951 CrTurning around
Uni Abex Alloy Products Ltd19.8×₹932 CrNo read
Synergy Green Industries Ltd186.0×₹927 CrMixed
Sterling Tools Ltd36.7×₹882 CrMixed
Uni Abex Alloy Products Ltd16.7×₹581 CrTurning around
12 · Frequently asked questions

Frequently asked questions

What is Nelcast Ltd's share price today?

Nelcast Ltd trades at ₹128, −13.2% over the past year. The company is valued at ₹1,170 Cr. The stock sits at 55% of its 52-week range of ₹89–₹160, +0.2% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a confirmed uptrend, 14 weeks in. — as of 24 July 2026.

What were Nelcast Ltd's latest quarterly results?

Nelcast Ltd reported revenue of ₹368 Cr and net profit of ₹15.0 Cr for the Mar 26 quarter. Revenue rose 11.5% and profit rose 7.1% year on year. Earnings per share were ₹1.76. The operating margin was 9.0%, 0.0 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 24 July 2026.

What is Nelcast Ltd's revenue?

Nelcast Ltd reported revenue of ₹368 Cr in the Mar 26 quarter, +11.5% year on year. For the full FY26 fiscal year, revenue was ₹1,328 Cr (+6.1%). Over the last 10 years revenue compounded at 9.0% a year. — as of 24 July 2026.

What is Nelcast Ltd's profit?

Nelcast Ltd earned ₹15.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +7.1% year on year — the 2nd straight quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹48.0 Cr. The operating margin ran 9.0% in the latest quarter. — as of 24 July 2026.

What is Nelcast Ltd's market cap?

Nelcast Ltd's market capitalisation is ₹1,170 Cr at a share price of ₹128. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 24 July 2026.

What is Nelcast Ltd's P/E ratio?

Nelcast Ltd trades at a P/E of 24.1×, at the 48th percentile of its own 10-year range, against a long-run median of 24.6×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 24 July 2026.

Does Nelcast Ltd pay a dividend?

Yes — Nelcast Ltd's dividend payout was 13% of profit in FY26, and it recorded a payout in 12 of its last 13 reported fiscal years. This page holds the payout ratio, not a per-share amount. — as of 24 July 2026.

Is Nelcast Ltd overvalued?

On its own history, Nelcast Ltd looks mid-range against its own history: its P/E of 24.1× sits at the 48th percentile of its 10-year range (long-run median 24.6×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. — as of 24 July 2026.

Is Nelcast Ltd growing?

Yes — Nelcast Ltd is growing: latest-quarter revenue +11.5% year on year, profit +7.1%, and the margin +0.0 pp at 9.0%. The 10-year compound rates are 9.0% (revenue) and 4.1% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 24 July 2026.

How is Nelcast Ltd performing?

Nelcast Ltd is in a confirmed uptrend, 14 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 11.5% and profit rose 7.1% year on year. Against the NIFTY 500 it has been behind on a trailing-13-week view for 4 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 24 July 2026.

What stage is Nelcast Ltd in?

Turning around — profit growth swung from −41.2% at the trough to +7.1% off a 5-quarter-old trough (single-quarter readings), ROCE holding at 11.0%. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +11.5% latest, profit growth +7.1% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 24 July 2026.

Is Nelcast Ltd in an uptrend?

Yes — the price is in a confirmed uptrend (week 14 of stage 2), trading +0.2% versus its 200-day average and at 55% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 24 July 2026.

Is Nelcast Ltd beating the market?

Not lately — on a trailing-13-week view Nelcast Ltd is currently behind the NIFTY 500 (4 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-25), the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 10.3 years the stock moved +118% against the NIFTY 500's +274% — behind the index over the full window. — as of 24 July 2026.

Will Nelcast Ltd's share price go up?

This page publishes no price forecast for Nelcast Ltd. What it measures instead: the share price is ₹128, the price is in a confirmed uptrend 14 weeks in. Its P/E of 24.1× sits at the 48th percentile of its own 10-year range. — as of 24 July 2026.

Who owns Nelcast Ltd?

Promoters hold 74.9% of Nelcast Ltd, foreign institutions 0.4%, domestic institutions 0.1% and the public 24.6% (latest quarter). No holder moved a full point over the last two years — the register is quiet. — as of 24 July 2026.

Does Nelcast Ltd have too much debt?

It is moderate — Nelcast Ltd's debt-to-equity is 0.43, and operating profit covers the interest bill 3×. FY26 borrowings were ₹257 Cr against equity of ₹596 Cr. Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind — as of 24 July 2026.

What is Nelcast Ltd's capex?

Nelcast Ltd spent ₹107 Cr on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY26 alone that was ₹16.0 Cr, with ₹0.0 Cr in capital work-in-progress — capacity paid for but not yet earning. — as of 24 July 2026.

What is Nelcast Ltd's cash flow?

Nelcast Ltd generated ₹92.0 Cr of operating cash flow in FY26 and ₹76.0 Cr of free cash flow after ₹16.0 Cr of capital spending. Reported profit that year was ₹48.0 Cr, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. Cash-flow resolution for India is annual. — as of 24 July 2026.

Is Nelcast Ltd's profit real cash?

Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 156% of Nelcast Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY26, operating cash was ₹92.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹48.0 Cr. The cash then goes into a mix of the working-capital cycle and capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 24 July 2026.

How financially safe is Nelcast Ltd?

On the balance sheet, the Z-score reads 3.14 — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the distress zone. That sits well clear of trouble. — as of 24 July 2026.

Where is Nelcast Ltd in its business cycle?

Nelcast Ltd's FY26 operating margin was 8.0%, against a 13-year band of 6.0%–11.0%: mid-band by its own history — neither the peak that precedes mean-reversion nor the trough that precedes recovery. The latest quarter ran 9.0%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 24 July 2026.

What could break the Nelcast Ltd story?

The sharpest disagreement: annual EPS moved +29.8% against a −13.2% price move — the market has not yet caught up with the delivery. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 24 July 2026.

Is Nelcast Ltd a stock worth studying right now?

This is not investment advice. The machine read: Nelcast Ltd's earnings have outrun its stock. EPS grew +29.8% in a year against a −13.2% price move. The sharpest open question: whether the price catches up with earnings that have already moved. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 24 July 2026.

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