Balu Forge Industries Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Balu Forge Industries Ltd trades at ₹448, in a downtrend and 28 weeks into that stage. That is −12.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 22% of a 52-week range of ₹380 to ₹684. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (11 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 28 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹448 it trades −12.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 22% of its 52-week range (₹380–₹684).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.3 years the stock moved +898% while the NIFTY 500 moved +266% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (11 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-04) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 16th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Balu Forge Industries Ltd trades at 20.3× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 16% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 31.0×, measured across 4.7 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 20.3× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 16% of the time, against a long-run median of 31.0× measured over 4.7 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +14.5% against a −32.9% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +34.2%/yr price move, ~+66.0%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−31.8 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Balu Forge Industries Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: revenue growth has eased from +70.4% at its peak to +19.9% but is still expanding, ROCE slipping at 23.9%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

55.4/100 — rank 9 of 19 in Castings, Forgings & Fastners · 90% evidence confidence

Balu Forge Industries Ltd scores 55.4 out of 100 against the 19 companies it is compared with in Castings, Forgings & Fastners, ranking 9. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 17.1 + 20.1 + 14.7 + 3.5 = 55.4. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Balu Forge Industries Ltd reported ₹264 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.2% year on year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,107 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,108 Cr. A multi-year compound rate is not shown because the annual history behind it is too short to compute one honestly.

Balu Forge Industries Ltd reported ₹264 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.2% year on year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,107 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,108 Cr. A multi-year compound rate is not shown because the annual history behind it is too short to compute one honestly.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,107 Cr (+19.8% on the year). The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹264 Cr, −2.2% year on year.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +19.9% over the last 4 quarters against +40.8%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +27.0% vs +66.9%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue slipped — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 23.0% this quarter (−5.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Balu Forge Industries Ltd's operating margin is 23.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, −5.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 11 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −180.0% to 45.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Balu Forge Industries Ltd's operating margin is 23.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, −5.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 11 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −180.0% to 45.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 23.0%, −5.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 11 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −180.0%–45.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −5.1 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.6 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +4.8% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Balu Forge Industries Ltd earned ₹66.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +4.8% year on year. It is the 12th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹259 Cr. That is 25.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹63.0 Cr.

Balu Forge Industries Ltd earned ₹66.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +4.8% year on year. It is the 12th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹259 Cr. That is 25.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹63.0 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹66.0 Cr, +4.8% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹259 Cr (+27.0%).

Why profit moved: revenue contributed −2.2% and the margin −5.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +32.0% vs revenue +21.7%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 27% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 27% of Balu Forge Industries Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹32.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹259 Cr of profit. After ₹234 Cr of capital spending, ₹−202 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹32.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹259 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−202 Cr after ₹234 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 27% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at 27%: the cash cycle stretched 117 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 117 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: the 182-day cycle, in money terms.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Balu Forge Industries Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 182 days in FY26, up from 65 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹784 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹1,107 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹3.0 Cr, so roughly ₹552 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 140 days, inventory at 75 days — roughly 2.5 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 182 days, looser than FY21's 65.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 75 days to sell; customers pay about 140 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 32 days — netting out to the 182-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹1,107 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹3.0 Cr — so the 182-day loop keeps roughly ₹552 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹784 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹15.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹277 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 23% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +4.6 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Balu Forge Industries Ltd earns a ROCE of 23% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −20% in FY16. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +4.6 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 23.4% net margin on 0.60× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 23%, recovered from a FY16 trough of −20% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 23.4% net margin × 0.60× asset turns × 1.16× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 16.3% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 16.6% − 12.0% = a +4.6 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.10.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Balu Forge Industries Ltd carries total debt of ₹152 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,595 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.10 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.30 in FY22 to 0.10 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹152 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,595 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.10. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.30 (FY22) to 0.10 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Foreign institutions cut 3.5 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 3.5 points of Balu Forge Industries Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 5.0% of the company. Promoters moved −2.6 points over the same window, to 53.5%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −3.5 points over 8 quarters to 5.0%; Promoters: −2.6 points over 8 quarters to 53.5%; Domestic institutions: −0.5 points over 8 quarters to 0.9%.

🚨 Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (−3.5 points), alongside promoters (−2.6 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Balu Forge Industries Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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